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Posted Cmilne23 on 22 October 2013 - 03:39 PM
Unfortunately due to the Monday Night Game the Seahawks are practicing later today. I was picking everyones brains there though. The general consensus was that if his body feels fine after practices he may be ready to play in MNF. He really wants to play and thinks he is ready, if he doesn't play its the teams decision. If you put a gun to my head I would say he will be back in week 9 at the absolute latest if he does not suit up this week. He is going to be a full go at practice today, and everyone I talked to said he has had no setbacks at all, he has been running and lifting normally over the past few weeks. I have to stop by again Thursday to drop off a few more things (I own a technology company I supply members of the Seahawks with ipads, TV's etc.) so that is basically my connection with them. If I hear anything else I will pass it along. Wish I could of seen practice today, was looking forward to that!
Posted Flacco2Rice on 14 May 2013 - 03:07 PM
Posted FearTheBeard on 29 March 2013 - 02:11 PM
Angels - Ernesto Frieri looked really bad both times I saw him, one of the games in Tempe I was sitting with Scouts and his velocity was 90-92, and I don't think I saw him in get swinging strike in two IP. Change up he's been working on looks like it will be ditched, his command was poor in the strike zone and was being hit very hard.
Dodgers - Saw League and Jansen, League twice - he looked like League looks when things are going well. In Surprise his velocity was 95-97, lots of GBs. Also saw Jansen in Surprise(they turned gun off for him), nothing out of whack, racked up K's inducing some very ugly AB's.
Rangers - Not much to say here, saw Nathan throw an inning - slider was nasty, velocity low 90's.
Royals - Holland was still missing bats at a high rate but there's a few concerns. Like last year early he's really been battling his command, and his velocity has been down 2-3 mph(which I've already seen a few articles on). Something to keep an eye on. Herrera's ridiculous. And a sleeper for saves at some point/somewhere could be Luke Hochevar. In a one inning role his stuff was beyond filthy working 96-99, a knee buckler, and slider/change - he toyed with the middle of the Dodgers lineup.
Giants - Nothing to say here, never saw Romo. It's pretty clear at this point Lincecum doesn't belong in the rotation, I think if Romo gets hurt/falters Lincecum could close, as he was very impressive out of the bullpen last year. Giants fans seem to think the same. That Lincecum will be given a chance to be in the rotation with a short leash and a ticket to late inning relief in his pocket.
A's - Saw Balfour throw 1 IP, looked good, some loud contact, some cursing, typical Balfour. Never saw Cook, or Doolittle - apparently according to A's fans Doolittle has looked incredible this spring.
Reds - Nothing to say, saw them twice - no Chapman or Broxton.
Indians - Never saw Perez who just began throwing, but I can say Pestano looks nasty and in MUCH better shape than years past. Saw him throw two innings during my stay and was very impressed and Perez better start fast if he wants to keep that role.
Brewers - This' ugly...I didn't see Axford walk many but he has zero command of his CB and no one swings at it anymore due to that reason. Teams just sit on the belt high straight FB and rip it all over the place, lots of loud contact. I think '11 will be his outlier, he just isn't very good. While Jim Henderson looked even worse, so at least Ax Man has that going for him. Henderson pitched a 30 minute half inning, had no clue where anything was going.
Cubs - Never saw Marmol or Fujikawa. Talked to some Cubs fans and they really like what they've seen from Fujikawa, and no surprise - they said Marmol was a mess, and wasn't even missing bats.
Rockies - Never saw Betancourt...
DBacks - Putz looked just how you want your closer to look, really good and unexciting. Nothing outta the norm. Hernandez was filthy both times I saw him, he had some bad D behind him, and made a mistake with a hanger but all his pitches looked good.
White Sox - Reed was absolutely filthy both times I saw him, mid 90's low in the zone, and was using all his pitches well. I think having Flowers will help him, cause for some reason last year AJ wouldn't call for anything but a FB when Reed has excellent secondary stuff. I remember we talked about it quite a bit last year in the closer threads.
Padres - Street and Gregerson both looked excellent, nothing outta the ordinary. Street definitely already has good feeling for his change.
Mariners - Wilhelmsen looked pretty good, velocity was on par, 12-6er was diving, only flaw noticeable was still getting a feel for his command when I saw him a few times 7-10 days ago. Pryor has been filthy, but the real guy to watch out for this year and another sleeper for saves - Carter Capps - WOW...Absolute filth. Like Pryor he throws absolute ched - but is more deceptive and has a much better breaking ball. Carter Capps folks, Carter Capps.
Posted ReyesMurphyWright on 20 November 2013 - 02:23 PM
#1 - Exaggerating the differences between Roto and H2H
I see this one get made over and over again. People have the belief that "well-rounded" players are useful in the Roto format, but not as useful in the Head-to-Head format. This is simply false. The only way in which this argument has any truth to it is that it is easier to punt a category in H2H. So if you're punting a category, you then re-evaluate every player without that category. For the remaining categories that you are playing for, all of the remaining categories still count equally. Any way you slice it, "well rounded" players aren't less valuable in H2H than in Roto.
#2 - Overvaluing Points, Rebounds, and Assists. (Hence undervaluing Steals, Blocks, 3PMs, FG%, FT% and Turnovers)
This is easily one of the most common mistakes people make. Even when people understand that it's a 9 (or 8) category game and that all these categories count equally... inevitably people always tend to overrate these categories. In particular, people have a tendency to overrate the importance. of Rebounds for big men and overrate the importance of Assists for point guards. Since these are the categories that these players are "supposed" to get, people tend to overrate the importance of these categories. For example, last year Asik was a very popular fantasy player - people saw him as a double-doubles machine. They probably didn't realize that Asik was the 170th ranked player last year.
#3 - Not fully understanding the impact of %s
I find it's something people don't pay enough attention to in general. For example, 75% is a big psychological number for people with FT%. People will usually feel fine with their player as long as they shoot over 75% from the line. But there's actually a colossal difference in value between a 76% FT shooter and an 83% FT shooter - it just doesn't feel like there is to people. People also often forget to pay attention to the impact of FG and FT attempts on a player's value.
#4 - Not understanding how to handle FT% killers
I see this happen over and over again. People want to put FT% killers on their team and still hope to compete in FT%. People usually overestimate the value of their FT% killer because they do not properly understand just how big a negative impact such a player has on their FT%. More people need to be punting FT% when such players are owned. Punting can be a great strategy for a team when done properly. If however people are not punting, they should at least have a better understanding of exactly how valuable their FT% killer is for them.
#5 - Not taking advantage of Player Raters
I find that many people are more skeptical of player raters than they should be. The player rater really is a great resource of fantasy basketball players. You can compare the value of players on a per game basis. You can find hidden potential hidden gems by seeing which players have great value on a per minute basis and have the potential to see increased playing time. You can make your own sensible adjustments to player rater value, if for example a player with a proven track record is underperforming in a certain in a small sample size. The player rater is your friend as a fantasy basketball player.
Posted Tarheels_2433 on 11 September 2013 - 07:00 PM
As RW Forums posting volume has increased, so has the # of these types of posts. While it's understandable if it's happened unintentionally - it's also becoming clear the Main Forum is becoming overrun with AC posts, and the above types of posts which are hijacking player discussion. Again, if it's someone learning for the first time, or inadvertent, we get that - but too many veterans are contributing to the problem. We cannot stress this enough, this problem tends to grow exponentially because too many people see others doing it and think it's okay, but this only worsens the issue. Lead by example and use the appropriate threads!
The Main Forum is to help promote general fantasy discussion that's usable for the entire community. To keep this focus, for those who can't stop - harsher penalties, including temporary disabling of posting privileges (or longer in the case of repeat offenders following prior penalties) . Hopefully, this won't be necessary - but as all posters agree to abide by the CoC and Posting Rules when they join, notice that AC posting will need to be done in the AC Forum is clearly necessary.
Given that the rules are well-known to returning members, we trust this reminder will help returning members keep Main Forum discussion for the community at large and away from AC/team content, and help new members avoid future problems as well.
Also, for the newest members:
PROBATIONARY MEMBERS - for those of you who have just joined, welcome! While you are in a probationary status, please note two important differences from other members. First, you can't send PM's or receive PM's until you move up to regular member (10+ posts). Secondly, as of 2013, Probationary Members can reply to exisiting threads, but can't create new threads in the following Forums:
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Please note that probationary members can still create threads in the other Forums, and can reply to existing threads in the above Forums. This will allow probationary members to get their feet wet in the Main Forums, and also help new members avoid posting Assistant Coach / Bench Coach threads in the wrong Forum.
As always, take a moment to read the RW Baseball Forum Posting Rules, RW Football Forum Posting Guidelines and RW Basketball Forum Posting Guidelines as this will cover all the areas of posting for RW members. Welcome aboard!
Posted Straight Outta CPT on 26 January 2013 - 09:04 AM
I'm normalizing for stats within each season. The biggest fluctuation comes from 3-pointers, which are worth more than 4 times as much in 1980 as they are today (in fact, they were at their highest value in 1983, when they were worth almost 7 times as much as they are today).
Greatest season of all time? Larry Bird in 1987. Michael Jordan's 1988 season (which finished at #3 behind Bird's 1988) would have surely been more valuable today though with the deflation of triples.
Top 25 seasons of all-time listed below:
Full data here: http://bit.ly/XCHHvL
Posted jstep13 on 19 November 2013 - 09:38 AM
This may be the highest word count I have ever seen that does absolutely nothing to help this thread.
Posted Bruz on 08 March 2013 - 12:35 PM
My credibility: I am a 26 year old, former pre-season all-american pitcher, who never made it past the collegiate level due to a rash of arm injuries both to my ulner collateral ligiment and biceps tendon. I know arm injuries first hand. Also, throughout my life i've been taught by some of the finest baseball instructors around... guys who coach current major leaguers and used to play in the bigs themselves.
First things first, the Verducci effect, in my opinion, and that of many other highly regarded baseball people, is a farse. Why? It is simple. For major leaguers, starting pitchers throw on a very structured schedule. They pitch every 5th day and condition their bodies and arms to do so. If a major leaguer trains their arm properly, and uses good mechanics, they should not experience any structural problems other than possible fatigue or "dead arm" which is very common. What I am trying to say is this: so long as you train properly IT IS NOT HOW OFTEN YOU THROW, BUT HOW YOU THROW (Mechanically speaking) THAT CAUSES INJURY.
Now... That being said, what is the proper way to throw? Each person has their own unique mechanics, and there is not a "perfect cookie-cutter delivery" that every pitcher should follow. However, there are a certain parts of a delivery that a pitcher must execute correctly in order to avoid injury. Here are the 5 biggest things to watch out for:
1. Any pitcher that fails to get there arm ready (hand above elbow and preferably as high as the ear or top of the head) to drive forward either before or as soon as their glove foot lands is in jeopardy. The most gruesome injury here isn't TJ, but the spiral fracture of the Humerus (upper arm). Cole Hamels did this in high school btw. (MLB Examples: Jarrod Parker, Shelby Miller)
2. Any pitcher that swings their arm behind their shoulder line or (like Lincecum or Porcello) sticks their arms straight down (Jarrod Parker), is in jeopardy.
2a. Pitchers that have a combination of #1 or #2 often creates what is call an "Inverted W" in their delivery. Their glove and throwing arms create what looks like an upside down W. Throwing hand below their elbow, shoulder blades clinched... Google image search inverted W throwing motion and you will see plenty of examples... You can pretty much take it to the bank that if a SP does this, they will wind up with some sort of elbow or shoulder injury... Need examples? Sure... Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Reyes, C.J. Wilson, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum... I could go on and on.
3. Any pitcher that strides so far that they have to bend at the waist, is in jeopardy of blowing out their lower back, and stressing their glove knee. (Roy Oswalt)
4. Any pitcher that allows their pitching arm to be flung away from their body (on their pitching side) or allows their glove side to fly open will have shoulder problems. (Peavy, Samardzija)
5. Any pitcher that supinates any pitch will develop bone chips or bone spurs (Sabathia) OR break their elbow (Zumaya).
My advice would be to just look for video on whatever pitcher you wish to analyze, and simply try to pause the video at certain points in his delivery. Take a look at where his hand is in relation to his elbow... check out his stride, see how he follows through with both his glove and pitcher arm. That's what I do, and I have had great success over the years when it comes to the health of my fantasy rotation.
Many pitchers nowadays ignore problems with their arms because of the growing success rate of Tommy John... Rather than make adjustments at the risk of losing their effectiveness, they just let their tendons take them as far as possible until they rupture, and then call in the re-inforcements. Post Tommy John tendons have a 5-10 year shelf-life. Tendons are tougher than ligaments, however the original ligament had the benefit of a blood supply, meaning it could partially repair itself. The new "ligament," has no blood supply. So once it starts to go, it goes fast.
Fun fact: Strasburg didn't rupture his UCL. A partial tear was found, and the Nats convinced him to have the surgery rather than rehab it because they figured a full rupture was probably going to happen. Technically speaking, he has a tendon overlaying his original ligament... MLB teams are more worried about maximizing the return on their investment, and unfortunately, they have stayed from teaching pitchers the proper mechanics. This is because they know that, rather than tinkering with their mechanics, a simple surgery with a high success rate can repair their pitchers with only a year of down time. If it doesn't work... well, they can always just draft the next "phenom".
P.S. - Have any of these geniuses who swear by the "Verducci Effect" ever actually sat down and watched video of how these pitchers actually throw? Have any of them every realized that the greater the number of innings a pitcher throws, the greater the probablity of injury? That is just pure math. Obviously a pitcher who throws 20 innings has less risk than a pitcher who throws 200... Injury jumps increase the probability of an injury no matter how a person throws...not because of a structual problem. Food for thought!
Hope you guys are able to take this information and put it to good use. I am here for anyone who has questions, whether it be on the technicality of the mechanics i just explained, or if they need help analyzing a certain pitchers mechanics.
Posted RotoRaysfan on 06 November 2013 - 01:51 PM
1. On-topic discussion and discussion on points made are more than OK, it's what stimulates good dialogue and how we learn from each other.
2. However, making the same point over & over again, when the discussion goes literally pages-long on the same points made from both sides, doesn't help anyone learn. Using new information, or analysis, that's the most helpful type of posting.
3. Let's avoid both the personal callouts, and on the flip side, telling those you disagree with how to post, that's neither productive, and frankly, only derails the convo further.
4. If you really think it's not worth reading posts, or can't avoid responding & rehashing the same points after pages of the same discussion, then use the ignore feature. If you can't post anything new, take a break and simply watch - let others present new info if you have nothing new. And yes, ignoring posters doesn't remove the ability to see responses to those posters, but nothing's perfect.
With that in mind, the undeniable facts on Allen, and a summary:
1. Since he's been instituted as the regular starting WR, Allen has put up 31 receptions, 497 yards, and and 3 TD's - in PPR, that's 98.7 points. In standard leagues, that's still top-20 WR production for that period. And as it's been well-documented, it's been very consistent.
2. SD has faced a very fantasy friendly schedule - that's entirely valid. But, that's also the reality of what determines player value. If Larry Fitzgerald had a decent QB and didn't have to face top D's 4x a year with SF/SEA, I'm sure the outlook on him would have been much higher. It's why every DEN player should be upgraded except when they face KC. Arguing it's solely responsible for sustained success is highly dubious, to be kind. What's even better is how SD has to play in shootouts - that means tons of targets and red-zone opps (more on that in a minute). And the need for SD to play in shootouts is only going to increase, given who they face coming up, and their preference for the pass in the red zone.
3. As it's been referenced numerous times, Allen's skills-analysis had him as the top rated WR entering the draft before his last year in the NCAA, only to be derailed by poor QB play, and a PCL injury that wrecked his combine & speed stats. So, when you look at a skills perspective, Allen's rise is not only supported, it's re-inforced.
I think we can agree on the above. In the same spirit of trying to move the discussion forward, I'll add this myself:
4. In the end, if you want to predict future production, it's all about targets & red-zone looks. Target-wise, let's break it down:
1. Allen from Week 4 to now - 44 targets, and more importantly, 18 of them in the red zone - http://www.rotowire....yer.htm?ID=8627 .
As a reference...
2. Eddie Royal - 21 targets, 2 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire....yer.htm?id=5690
3. Vincent Brown - 29 targets, 3 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire.... \
4. Antonio Gates - 44 targets, 12 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire....
5. Danny Woodhead - 37 targets, 14 red-zone targets - http://www.rotowire....
Before anyone asks why Week 4 - now - it's simple, Allen wasn't installed as the starting WR until then. Given that he's entrenched as the starting WR, that's the relevant time period to select. So, what the target & red zone since he became a starter tells us - Allen is the most overall-targeted player with Gates, and is the leading red-zone target. If you want a predictor of stability, you can find no better one that those measures, and they not only support, they re-inforce the notion he'll be a consistent target and red zone threat. When it comes down to it, other arguments do not stand up nearly as well to using targets & red zone looks - it's why there's a column dedicated to this each week that's updated on the main site (keeping in mind the Main Site & Forums are separate, so please, don't link them together), and why it's included in mainstream stat sites nowadays.
There are tons of situations where players produce a crazy week or two (I'm looking at you Riley Cooper & Jericho Cotchery), and people are right to question if it's for real. But when you combine the fact we've seen it for 5 weeks now, the skills that were already there but hidden by his NCAA injury, and the targets/red-zone profile, the only logical conclusion to draw is that Allen is a legit WR2 this season, with WR1 upside for the future - including the rest of this year, given his usage & targeting (>8 targets a week and >3 red zone looks is awesome if you have a decent QB, which Rivers clearly qualifies as this season). If you go waaaay back to Week 5, I called him a WR3 with WR2 upside, because I didn't think he could become the #1 guy target/red-zone-wise (which is what you need to become a WR1/high-WR2). But, amazingly enough, his usage has made that possible to tag him accordingly. And, while every WR1 or WR2 can get shut down in the odd week (as an AJ Green and D-Train owner, I can attest to that), the winning owners are ones that use solid scouting of skills, combined with understanding of targets & red zone looks to see if players are getting the opportunity to keep producing - and Allen doesn't just get a lukewarm green flag, he has bright green flags running over & over.
Add it up, and what it means - unless you have 3 top 10 WR's on your team already, he's locked & loaded into your lineups. And yes, barring an injury to him or Rivers, hard to see him not being the WW pickup of the year for most standard or PPR redraft leagues (and at the very least, a podium winner).
Posted mmm sod on 06 November 2013 - 02:07 AM
Posted kingjames02392 on 20 October 2013 - 04:12 PM
Posted GJDHouse on 01 September 2013 - 12:03 PM
The difference in great FF owners and chumps is that they don't mind taking an embarrassing pick if they believe in the player.
Posted lovepuig on 27 July 2013 - 08:40 PM
Posted FearTheBeard on 16 April 2013 - 09:09 PM
Michael Pineda - Very solid 1st year, regressed heavily in 2nd half but overall damn good. Not looking as rosy anymore.
Jeremy Hellickson - Can't deny his cup of tea and 1st year numbers weren't good, was very lucky, still overrated.
Josh Johnson - K's didn't come full on, pretty wild, but damn good first year.
Justin Verlander - Solid first 2 years, year 3 treated him rudely. Took awhile for K rate to climb
Max Scherzer - Good, not great. Peripheral #'s indicate he was better than frontline stats
Anibal Sanchez - Great ERA/WHIP, very lucky, LOW K's
Scott Kazmir - Horrible cup of tea, but very solid first year
Chris Sale - Dominant first year starting after working as RP in '11.
Felix Hernandez - Beast in year one 12 starts, very disappointing year 2 as book came out. Now one of the games best.
Brett Anderson - Not outstanding by any means, but good.
Jarrod Parker - Excellent year one, year two has been a nightmare thus far
Tommy Milone - MiLB K machine proved to be false, thrived at OC in a nice rookie season
Jared Weaver - slayed in year one, average for a couple years then became elite.
Tommy Hanson - Expected to be true #1, didn't disappoint - shoulder problems have derailed career
Joe Blanton - A pretty good year, probably Blanton's best which is a whole other discussion.
Stephen Strasburg - Blew up baseball! Rare combo of stuff, command, poise have him as top 5 SP.
Matt Harvey - Basically walked into the league with a gas can and matches - hasn't stopped.
Johan Santana - had a few failed 5 GS'ed year, then in 2002 emerged as one of baseballs best.
Tim Hudson - Outstanding year one, has been a great pitcher for along time with only a couple down years
Adam Wainwright - Just good - took awhile for the K's to come. When they did, an ace was born.
Yovani Gallardo - With exception of two HORRIBLE outings, my ratios are still recovering - he was very good
Josh Beckett - Absolutely monster prospect, he was good, not great by any means. Very up and down.
Zack Greinke - Very good 1st year when he started 20+, AWFUL 2nd year. Depression Fest.
Tim Lincecum - A little wild, not the greatest ERA - but as advertised. He was very good.
Matt Cain - Same blurb as Lincecum
Madison Bumgarner - Giants rookie pitcher goodness continues
Barry Zito - An Oakland A back then, but damn he was filthy
Daniel Hudson - After a few crappy starts in Chi-Town, he came out with metal horns up in Arizona
Jhoulys Chacin - Super solid years in '10 -'11, especially hurling in that park. Kind of a forgotten guy this season.
CC Sabathia - Got wins, but ERA/FIP good bit north of 4, lots of baserunners
Matt Moore - Could argue he was good, expectations were so high they were unfair. Lots of baserunners, struggled with CB
Brian Matusz - Decent in his first year starting, real ugly after that
Rick Porcello - Even though he had a historically brutal K rate, pretty good. Huge disappointment afterwards.
Justin Masterson - First year as a SP in Cleveland went alright, better than #'s suggest
Jake Peavy - Also better than #'s suggest, popular breakout pick year 2 - didn't happen. Year 3 - stud.
Wade Davis - Big time prospect, very average to below average first year. Only success has been as a RP
Jordan Zimmermann - ERA wasn't good, peripheral #'s state he was good.
Cole Hamels - you could argue he was good year one, kind of a tweener, now one of the games best.
Mike Minor - Another guy who had very good peripheral numbers and poor/average ERAs.
Mat Latos - First 10 starts went as expected for a young power arm, some up/downs, K's and #'s came 2nd year
Jeff Samardzija - I'm putting Shark here only cause it took him ALONG time be a SP, lots of RP for years prior.
AJ Burnett - Showed the hype, but had zero command. First 8 went good, next year worked 13 GS and they were bad.
Francisco Liriano - First year over 10 GS was just OK, could borderline being bad. Was #6 prospect.
Clayton Kershaw - Top 2 SP in MLB, took awhile for him to harness his stuff and reduce pitch count. Very OK first year.
Brandon McCarthy - Highly anticipated - rather lackluster but decent. Better SP now, still can't stay healthy
Jason Marquis - First time out pretty damn good, 2nd year was so bad it caused me to put him here.
Phil Hughes - started off OK initially, but it took an ugly turn. Huge disappointment - overall career for that matter, monster prospect
Joba Chamberlain - brought up fast, was a nightmare as a SP
Jon Lester - Ugly...It took time...
Clay Buchholz - Another monster prospect, good in 2-3 start cup of tea, then derailed brutally when given chance in 2008/09
David Price - Can't miss stud, missed hard in year one. Filthy ever since.
Brandon Morrow - Big prospect, was a disappointment, still is...
Chris Tillman - Bad
Zach Britton - Bad
Jake Arrieta - Bad
Mike Pelfrey - High hopes, great prospect, sucked year one, solid year two, horrid after that
Ubaldo Jimenez - Pre good Ubaldo was more like current Ubaldo
Brett Myers - First go around was a rough one
Gavin Floyd - very sought after prospect, his first year 10+ GS in Philly - AWFUL...
John Danks - Horrible year 1, excellent year 2...
Ervin Santana - Pretty poor in '05, couple OK years, then emerged in '08.
Bud Norris - very good prospect, rough first two years, improved but he is what he is.
Erik Bedard - disappointing in first year, became adequate, then sniffed great, downward spiral...
Bartolo Colon - Crappy first year before he became a 200IP horse with very good #'s
Derek Holland - Big prospect, sucked in his first year - still a disappointment
Matt Harrison - first year as SP in Texas - was....UGLY...
Gio Gonzalez - God he was awful...Many thought it would never happen, now he's a stud
Dan Haren - Good prospect that started off poor in St. Louis, developed into a stud.
Roy Halladay - As a SP, it didn't begin well for Doc - ERA over 10 year after he was OK in bullpen/spot start. Just won 200 games
Cliff Lee - after a decent few starts in '03, '04 treated Lee badly. Went from average, to bad, to great. Still great.
Johnny Cueto - Pretty bad year one after a big spring built hype
Homer Bailey - Absolutely blew in his first handful of MLB attempts, another guy some thought was a lost cause. Huge Prospect
Edwin Jackson - Very similar to Bailey, people gave up on him.
Jonathan Sanchez - Typical Sanchez, with exception of the few good years
Wandy Rodriguez - Lil fella also hung out north of 5 in his first year
Chad Billingsley - ERA was good, but don't let it fool you. Buzzsaw was a wreck.
Ian Kennedy - '08's 10 GS brought a 8+ ERA, success didn't come til he went to Arizona
Trevor Cahill - Like Gio that year, but not quite as awful. Guy couldn't buy a K.
Drew Pomeranz - Solid prospect outta Ole Miss ain't liking the Rocky Mountains.
Jeff Francis - ROUGH first year, put together a few decent ones in Colorado. Good prospect, but has been lackluster ML SP.
John Garland - Hey - he's still a SP, haha. Horrible first year on the south side.
Edinson Volquez - Before his great and only great 1st year in Cincy - Volquez stunk up 10+ GS in Arlington
So in summary - all these guys rated higher than Cingrani by baseball scouts. But overall - this' an outstanding group of SP. Why? Cause they are still SP. That's a huge feat - so even though some had lackluster career in comparison to their "upside", these guys all made it. As I said in the intro - there's tons of super talented dudes rated very high that didn't.
All in all - it doesn't hurt to pick a guy up - I love being right on prospects and think I do a decent job. Over the years I've missed picking some up(Harvey/McCutchen), and got some guys that ended up being awful(Bailey/Matusz/Bauer). The Matt Harvey one still depresses me and the league I missed him in was a redraft last season(so no big deal), but it's a league with all by best buds I played ball with. I came out and said to my friend who grabbed him, "You're gonna be disappointed, he isn't ready." After watching some of Harvey's AAA starts online, and one on MLB network, reading a bunch of stuff on the guy I came to this conclusion. Wow - does this dude have nasty stuff - exploding 93-97mph FB with life and a jaw dropping slider. While the stuff was there, he had no clue where it was going. I knew if found consistency he'd be a stud - but in '12 all I expected were lines like 5IP, 4H, 4 R, 4BB, 6 Ks, 100+ pitches. We've seen young power pitchers with great stuff and poor command do this many times over. Well - I was wrong. Someone, somewhere told Harvey something and that consistency was found in a incredibly short time.
So just don't beat your wife, dog, kid, or eat excessive ice cream like a depressed chick if it doesn't work out. The guys that grabbed Hughes, Buchholz, Bailey, Kershaw, and Price in there first go over 10 GS were riding the bull - only to be left feeling like the world hated them.
Posted 9703 on 18 November 2013 - 11:42 AM
Don't play fantasy football ever again because it's all a bunch of bullshit.
Posted ReyesMurphyWright on 10 November 2013 - 12:06 AM
I'm not sure everyone realizes just how valuable this guy is.
Kevin McHale is clearly LOVING what he's seeing based on the minutes. He got 38 freakin' minutes tonight.
Look at his minutes the last 3 games.
11/5: 29 minutes (first game back from injury)
11/7: 34 minutes
11/9: 38 minutes
Now, let's remember what Patrick Beverley's Per 36 minute stat line looked like last year:
For a comparison, let's look at Nicolas Batum's Per 36 minute stat line from last year:
Scarily similar, no?
Obviously we'll just have to wait and see to see if he can really be as good as his Per Minute numbers from last year suggest... but he's getting the minutes, which is the key thing.
Beverley could end up being the pick up of the year.
Posted shaman0610 on 30 October 2013 - 03:01 PM
Posted taenggg on 22 October 2013 - 04:03 PM
Posted Cmilne23 on 09 September 2013 - 05:55 PM