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#4446676 Why fantasy basketball takes no skill, just luck.

Posted BigStuck on 31 March 2014 - 05:13 AM

cool story bro

#4437731 2014 Offseason Closers Thread

Posted FearTheBeard on 26 March 2014 - 02:14 PM

Time to update this beast due to some more shake ups in the carousel, so here's an updated team by team breakdown of closer situations if the season started today. All of the following is my opinion, and on jobs that aren't concrete I'll list my reasoning. GREEN = SAFE,ORANGE = LOW SECURITY, RED = NO SECURITY or CBC. Please do not quote ungodly long post, just comment, or quote a section.


Boston Red Sox: CLOSER - Koji Uehara. No further discussion needed.  

Tampa Bay Rays: CLOSER - Grant Balfour. While I certainly liked Balfour more in the spacious Oakland Coliseum due to his loud contact and fly ball ways, no reason to believe he won't continue to strike guys out and be at least adequate in Tampa. Balfour has been incredibly consistent over the past 4 seasons, keeps himself in excellent condition, and has been generating more K's and SwStr% due to throwing his slider more. Personally - I'm not worried about what the O's found given their fine tooth comb physicals. It was incredibly hard for me to wrap my head around the super savvy Rays hand the ball to Heath Bell in the 9th. The thought of Heath Bell pitching in AL East ballparks, Vs AL East lineups is frightening. He has had success the last couple years in lower leverage roles. He needs to develop a change up, and at age 36 it probably won't happen. Guy is a loud contact machine between HRs and LD's - hitters simply sit dead red on his FB, and only offer at his CB(which he doesn't command as well) if they're down in the count. Maddon likes Joel Peralta as his fireman, so I don't think he's in the contender realm at the time. Juan Carlos Oviedo could enter picture if Balfour falters but he has major steps to take in return from injury. He has had success in the role, and I think Hickey can keep his mechanics consistent - his FB/CU combo is nasty when it's on. I love Jake McGee, excellent swing and miss stuff, handles hitters from both sides but he has also faltered out of his 7th inning role, and was melt down prone in '13. I like McGee, but think the Rays like using him how they have been. Shaping up to what could be an excellent bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles: CLOSER - Tommy Hunter, CONTENDERS - Darren O'Day, Kevin Gausman, Ryan Webb. I can't say I was wrong that they would go Balfour or Rodney, definitely tried but it didn't shake out. If the O's plan is now to go with what they have, a CBC approach may be the best answer. Hunter and O'Day keep guys off base but LHB hurt them, Hunter also gives up a lot of FB's in a HR friendly park. Webb handles LHB and RHB, keeps ball on ground, but lacks swing and miss stuff, in addition to questionable command at times. I'm starting to really like the idea of Kevin Gausman in the closer role since he lost out on the #5 spot, dude was DOMINANT out of the pen last year. Matusz is outstanding Vs LHB, but he'll be given a chance to start again per Baltimore Sun.

New York Yankees: CLOSER - David Robertson. Congrats D Rob - You've graduated to GREEN. My biggest hangup with D Rob prior was simply the risk of the Yankees bringing in Balfour or Rodney. Robertson has been an outstanding high leverage RP over the past 3 seasons and I happy he's getting a crack at the role baring a trade. However, I'm still not sold that the Yankees believe he's their future 9th inning guy given the courting of high priced established closers, or that they just like using D Rob in his current role. He was given first chance to close in '12 when Mo went down, had a few hiccups and they quickly turned to Soriano. I don't see Robertson having any in house competition at this point, I mean Shawn Kelley, Matt Thornton, really? That's a pretty rough bullpen in the Bronx. I still could see the Yanks bringing in someone to fill the role.

Toronto Blue Jays: CLOSER - Casey Janssen. Not sexy, but consistent and continues to do a very good job, but there's always some concern when other late inning options have such electric stuff, Sergio Santos and Steve Delabar. If you draft Janssen it's a real good idea to handcuff him, had shoulder issues last spring, offseason shoulder surgery, more shoulder issues this spring. He has logged ONE spring inning recently, topped at 86mph.  


Detroit Tigers: CLOSER - Joe Nathan. Next.

Cleveland Indians: CLOSER - John Axford. CONTENDERS - Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, Vinnie Pestano. The only reason I have The Ax Man in orange and not red is I think it's 100% concrete he has been brought to Cleveland to close and will indeed have to falter a few times in the role to give it up. He's as good of a candidate as anyone to get supplanted, and is known to start seasons in a mechanical mess. He did look pretty good when I saw him in Arizona this year, maybe the Cardinals did fix him. However, Axford's implosions are beyond ugly, K rate fell off last year, and he has two years running with a LD% over 24% and really high HR/FB%(guy can throw some total meat), his command can be all over the place due to mechanical issues, and he goes through stretches where to completely telegraphs his hook. My money to take the job is on Cody Allen, 11.26 K/9, 11.5 SwStr%, command is good enough, filthy FB/CB combo, handles hitters from both sides. Can't rule out Vinnie Pestano, he was clearly never right last season so I'd be him in the fold unless he looks '13 again. Bryan Shaw is a dude that has been discussed as a possible closer the last 3 years but hasn't gotten a look, def solid, keeps ball on ground, owns RHB - I just like Allen more.

Kansas City Royals : CLOSER - Greg Holland. Stud, plenty of other good options in case Holland's elbow explodes from throwing that wipeout slider. A good thing to keep in mind with Holland, last few years it has taken him 3 weeks to a month to find his groove/command.  

Minnesota Twins : CLOSER - Glen Perkins. Dude's money, move on.

Chicago White Sox : CLOSER - Nate Jones, CONTENDERS - Matt Lindstrom, Daniel Webb. Ventura fooled everyone a couple years ago going with Hector Santiago, so really who knows. I'm going Jones based on stuff, and the fact the White Sox have him listed as their closer on their depth chart. Personally,  Jones is a guy I plan to target in every league as a ADP value closer that can pay out well above his drafted spot. His '13, was marred by really crappy luck and his underlying metrics indicate dominance. Guy throws upper 90's, 10.27 K/9, solid command, 2.64 SIERA, 13.2 SwStr%, keeps the ball on the ground in that band box, no extreme splits - YES PLEASE! Jones has also fared well this spring. I feel like we've seen the Matt Lindstrom closer dance 3-4 times(well, we have). Aside from experience and also being a GB guy I see nothing he does better than Jones, he struggles Vs lefties, has very hittable gas, worse command, low K rate, meh. Lindstrom has recently returned to the mound. Daniel Webb is an interesting candidate, GB guy, misses bats, ok command, no extreme splits - I just think Jones is a little better across the board


Oakland Athletics : CLOSER - Jim Johnson. Chalk this up as an offseason move I just didn't understand, it was very Un-A's IMO. Now I have no doubt Oakland will be able to fix JJ, get him back on top of his sinker, and stop coming off the side but 10 million for a guy who isn't a K pitcher, struggled late last year, declining velocity, and his style doesn't take advantage of that huge park/foul ground - I don't get it. Especially when you have Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook in house, and were able to acquire Luke Gregerson via trade. With Doolittle and Cook breathing down his neck, JJ has gotta perform outta the gate.

Texas Rangers : CLOSER - Joakim Soria, CONTENDERS - Alexei Ogando, Neftali Feliz, Tanner Scheppers. Well as I said in my last update, the winner in Surprise would get the job. RonWash announced last week Soria would be his guy, he pitched well, and Feliz is getting back arm strength and command. Soria will need to log a few saves to enter GREEN for me. Ogando isn't really a huge threat a very well may enter the rotation at some point. Biggest contender to me is Neftali if he can get his mojo back and Soria falters. Scheppers currently in the rotation could get a look if he gets bounced. I'm thinking Soria is pretty safe.

Los Angeles Angels : CLOSER - Ernesto Frieri. Hold on tight, the Ernesto Rollercoaster is ready to depart. He's definitely the guy, but man can he be stressful to own. The life on his FB, release pt, velo make him a tough dude to handle (15.8% SwStr). Lapse's in command, out of sync mechanics can often spell trouble at different points of the year. The signing of Joe Smith was a good one for the Angels to step in during periods where Frieri loses it, Smith is steady, without extreme splits.

Seattle Mariners : CLOSER - Fernando Rodney. Well - called this one too. Just didn't seem like the M's had faith in Farquhar due to courting every FA closer this season. The Rodney signing may be rather pointless for this organization, and sure - he's overpaid, but as a M's fan I can say the bullpen as a whole is better today than yesterday. It isn't my money - and 2 yrs doesn't hamstring anyone for future moves/growth. No debating Rodney's stuff, the dude is filth. It' just that whole command thing. '12 was definitely the outlier, but all in all - '13 Rodney is a pretty solid closer with encouraging underlying numbers minus BB%.You would think with Farquhar's success in the final months he'd be given a no doubt chance to close with some leash in '14. From 7/21 on he was absolutely dominate, with exception of two outings. Eye test, and metrics support that opinion working with an excellent cutter, FB that can hit 97, and a solid hook. I still think this organization has a love fest with Tom Wilhelmsen , so who knows if he can recapture his curveball and command. They've also tabbed Stephen Pryor as "closer of the future", but him being out til mid season may have been the new intel that encouraged them to get another quality bullpen arm.  

Houston Astros : CLOSER - CBC. CONTENDERS - Josh Fields, Chad Qualls, Matt Albers, Jesse Crain. Bo Porter recently said the Astros are using a CBC approach, in baseball speak to me that means he has a guy in mind but doesn't want to put pressure on them, and he's also not committed to anyone. If the determination is based on spring training, Josh Fields would be the guy - he has looked terrific posting 7IP, 6H, 1ER, 6K - and most importantly - NO WALKS! Fields probably has the best pure stuff but his command has been a nightmare since he broke into the league. If it's based off expierence, it's Chad Qualls, who quietly had an excellent '13 in Miami. Qualls has been pretty much a coin flip the last 6 years in regards to how he throws. But last season he saw a uptick in velo, SwStr%, induced a lot of weak contact, continued to be a GB machine, good command. Spring hasn't treated Qualls nearly as well, he was my initial pick but now I'm thinking Fields. No doubt year in year out Crain has been the best RP of the bunch, but given his shaky status and how tricky shoulders are - you might not see him pitch 10 innings this year.


Atlanta Braves : CLOSER - Craig Kimbrel. Game, set, match.

Washington Nationals : CLOSER - Rafael Soriano. Soriano would be one of my top bets for a "safe closer" that will lose his job by May. He has always outperformed his underlying numbers but a lot of other things turned there head last season. K rate plummeted, SwStr% plummeted, 2nd year in a row he gave up a ton of loud contact(really bad mix with the decline in K rate), velo decline, contact rates went up, he's turning into just a guy that throws a fat cutter. STAY AWAY. He's been HORRIBLE this spring as well. There's a new sheriff in town, and Soriano has more talented guys pitching the 7th and 8th with Clippard and Storen. Clippard has been announced the 8th inning guy, and I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for Storen.

New York Mets : CLOSER - Bobby Parnell. Got the neck fixed, has been good this spring and velocity is coming back - now hitting 94, was down early. Dude had a damn good year, not a lot of opportunities but he thrived. Sacrificed some K's for better command but it worked out nicely. I gotta say though - anyone else find it slightly concerning the Mets were also courting the high price FA closers. Makes me think they aren't as confident in his neck or his future as the news lets on.

Philadelphia Phillies : CLOSER - Jonathan Papelbon. As Philly stands now this clown is ultra safe, that's one of the worst bullpens in baseball and he's really their only option. Adams hasn't been right for awhile, and Bastardo is all over the place. No surprise the Phillies are trying to run out from this contract, but they waited to late unless they want to eat a huge portion of the deal. I'll be honest - my eye test tells me Papelbon was awful last year, but his underlying numbers suggest he wasn't that bad(not as good, but not as bad as I thought). The main issue was Papelbon was just more hittable - K rate dropped, velo dropped a few ticks, SwStr% dropped, chase rate dropped, O-Contact% went up. These are all red flags he ain't returning to the Papelbon of previous years, but they also stayed relatively good. His command stayed very good, xBABIP shows a lot of weak contact, etc. SIERA on par with ERA. Definitely some decline, but I was expecting far worse.

Miami Marlins : CLOSER - Steve Cishek. Guy had crap for opportunities and struggled a little bit from a front line statistical point of view til early June. But if you were patient, his metrics stayed positive, he demonstrated better command, and was more effective Vs lefties. Ended with a very solid 34 saves on a awful team that should improve some come '14. If dealt - AJ Ramos may finally get his day in the sun.

NL Central

St Louis Cardinals : CLOSER - Trevor Rosenthal. Absolute flamethrower, and Cards confirmed he will be closing in '14. So no SP testing out phase to worry about. Even if he struggles initially, fellow flame throwing Carlos Martinez could emerge as a threat. Jason Motte will probably go through his own peaks and valleys returning from TJ, and his exact return date is in question.

Pittsburgh Pirates : CLOSER - Jason Grilli. I love Jason Grilli as a pitcher, and he's just a really good dude. That being said, he's another closer on the "safe list" I'm not touching. Forearm, UCL strains are no joke and often signs of bad things to come. He also didn't exactly set the world on fire when he returned, his velo was down and stuff was flat. Just make sure if you draft Grilli that would back him up with Mark Melancon - what a year that guy had.   

Cincinnati Reds : CLOSER - JJ Hoover (temp), CLOSER - Aroldis Chapman (May return) CONTENDERS - Jonathan Broxton & The Band. Well, that was one scary event. Right now it looks like Chapman will return at some point in May - after he heals and gets game ready. We all know who he is - ridiuclously nasty, and one of the most entertaining RP's in baseball. Hoover looks to be sliding into closer role by default, and he has been horrible this spring. Broxton and Sean Marshall are both just starting to get back in games, Broxton looked good when I saw him in Arizona. They may return Mid April if Hoover falters. There's various other mix and match guys as well(Parra). Hopefully Aroldis heals quickly and isn't gun shy - getting your face crushed by a ball traveling 100+mph is damn scary.

Milwaukee Brewers : CLOSER - Jim Henderson. How much did Hendo owners love K Rod last year? Hahaha - it was pretty funny seeing how butt hurt owners were. I'm not that big on Henderson, he definitely out performed his underlying numbers. Few things concern me - very low BABIP esp given his xBABIP - the dude gave up over 28% LD's, LOL. Extremely high strand rate. History of poor command and difficulty with LHB, due to no CU, arm slot, and a FB that flattens out. That all being said - he gets K's, misses bats, and his main competition is K-Rod (currently KO'ed by stepping on Cactus) - he could be a factor and Brandon Kintzler - who's solid, but doesn't scare me if I'm a Henderson owner.  

Chicago Cubs : CLOSER - Jose Veras. CONTENDERS - Pedro Strop. Veras had a nice year last year between Houston and Detroit, and I think the Cubs definitely brought him in to close. But he's still a low security closer to me, and I really have no clue what Veras will show up in '14. Jose Veras with '13 command is a damn good RP, but I can't ignore all those years of 4.5 to 5.5 BB/9. He also induced a ton of weak contact last year based on his xBABIP, and I think his K rate falling some was fluky - he had a career high SwStr%, increased his O-Swing%, while decreasing contact rates. Veras has been AWFUL thus far this spring. The Cubs seemed to want to transition to Pedro Strop as a closer towards the end of last season but he has his own issues, and can be a complete command rollercoaster and kind of has a Marmol'ly flavor to him - with the good slider, pretty blah everything else, and bad command. My darkhorse is Arodys Vizcaino. Watch out for this guy if Veras' command gets bad, he throws absolute filth and was a highly touted prospect in the Braves organization. All reports of him throwing this offseason have been stellar and described as "98, and electric.", he also looked outstanding in Arizona this spring. Never count out the Cubs love for the Closer Cockroach, styling his goggles and airboots, he just has that mentality, and experience -Kevin Gregg.


Los Angeles Dodgers : CLOSER - Kenley Jansen.  This should be another "Yawn" "Stud" "Game.Set.Match" closer in regards to security but you never know with the Dodgers. Jansen is unbelievable, outstanding command, ridiculous K %, can be a little prone to loud contact, but his underlying numbers are outstanding. I would draft Jansen without hesitation but I do have concern due to a few issues - 1) Mattingly has previously acknowledged he likes using Jansen when stakes are highest, 2) They forked a lot of money to Brian Wilson 3) Jansen doesn't typically have his best months early on, 4) Heart condition does still present some concern - as people need their meds adjusted frequently. I love the pitcher, but it may be wise to handcuff him with Wilson.

Arizona Diamondbacks : CLOSER - Addison Reed. This was another odd transaction for me, but the DBacks always seem to surprise me with how bonehead they can be. Why the hell deal your only MiLB power bat that's MLB ready for a average closer? I'm not hating on Reed, he gets the job done more times than not, missing some bats, etc - but has far as closers go - he's pretty run of the mill. I don't ever see him being elite, just kind of a middle of the road guy. The DBacks already had a few options with Brad Ziegler, JJ Putz, and David Hernandez. The move just seemed unnecessary, and rumor is they are now trying to shop Putz -whom could be a nice short term chip for a team in need of a closer baring his health. Ziegler is a guy that Gibson likes having freedom with, and save to destroy RHB and get groundballs. Hernandez has solid stuff, just had a really bad up and down '13 but underlying numbers don't show much has changed.

San Diego Padres - CLOSER - Huston Street. This' an interesting one for me. After the Benoit signing the Padres GM Josh Byrnes came out and said Street is absolutely their closer for '14, but '15 is up in the air. Street was excellent in '12, but WAAY outperformed his underlying numbers in '13. He understands how to pitch, and I can't believe he has the success in which he does. The crap he gets people to chase is unbelievable - evidenced by a yearly healthy O-Swing%. He isn't sexy, but when that guy finds his groove and soup can command he'll go 2-3 months with nothing but 5-8 pitch clean saves. He rarely walks people, and uses that huge ballpark to his advantage. But when Street is off - WATCH OUT!! How he doesn't get whip lash I have no clue, and is a complete cardiac closer. One thing we do know is Street will go through a slump, and he'll see the DL once, maybe twice. When that happens and Benoit takes over do they go back to Street? Benoit is getting paid a ton of dough, has equally great command, gets K's, misses bats, and will also take advantage of spacious Petco Park with his flyball tendencies. Every year I think the Padres will deal Street, but it doesn't happen. Safe to say - if you have Street, you better handcuff with Benoit.

San Francisco Giants : CLOSER - Sergio Romo. Well, he's the guy. Not as dominate in '13, but still damn good and the metrics agree. Lefties still get at him, but he absolutely dominates RHB. Doesn't hurt himself, has impeccable command, gets K's. His slider is such an outstanding pitch, gets a O-Swing% over 40%(wow), misses a lot of bats. One concern with Romo is the elbow due to so many sliders and some previous discomfort in the joint, but there's no clear cut replacement. Heath Hembree was insane during his cup of tea last season and has been given that future closer label. While he showed far better command in '13 than in the past, he was rather generic in AAA Fresno. I do like Hembree to take over as much as anyone - but I think Bochy will go CBC with the same group of dudes he has prior.  

Colorado Rockies : CLOSER - LaTroy Hawkins. CONTENDER - Rex Brothers. Rockies management has already said Hawkins has been signed to close, but he's without a doubt in the low security category - this could be red, but they've at least announced their plans. The ultimate battle between Sexy Vs UnSexy. I get the move on Colorado's part, Hawkins had a really nice year in '13 and they got an affordable one yr deal done. Hawkins scares me in Colorado and I'll be steering clear, but he has excellent command, leans towards being a GB pitcher, increased his K rate from awful to OK, is effective Vs L & R hitters. He's basically a boring veteran that was brought in for two reason, 1) They don't trust Brothers, 2) And like Brothers Vs LHB in high leverage situations. Brothers has a nice K rate, dominates LHB, gets weak contact but lets face - the dude is WILD!!! I tuned into him throwing on numerous occasions last year and either said, "Damn that guy is filthy" or "Damn, that guy has absolutely no clue where the ball is going." Brothers also lost a couple ticks last season which probably caused the K rate/SwStr% to drop a tad. Personally - I have very little faith in Hawkins in Coors, or Brothers command(which hasn't improved in 3 years). This spring Hawkins has been hittable and Brothers has been wild - SHOCKER!

#3969593 Percy Harvin 2013 Season Outlook

Posted Cmilne23 on 22 October 2013 - 03:39 PM

Well that was one of the most awesome experiences of my life.  I got to go in the VMAC (Virgina Mason Athletic Center) where the Seahawks practice, tour the facility, and have lunch there.  Got to meet some of the players.  Everyone was awesome. I had been there a few other times, but never got to go past the main offices in the building.

Unfortunately due to the Monday Night Game the Seahawks are practicing later today.  I was picking everyones brains there though.  The general consensus was that if his body feels fine after practices he may be ready to play in MNF.  He really wants to play and thinks he is ready, if he doesn't play its the teams decision.  If you put a gun to my head I would say he will be back in week 9 at the absolute latest if he does not suit up this week.  He is going to be a full go at practice today, and everyone I talked to said he has had no setbacks at all, he has been running and lifting normally over the past few weeks.  I have to stop by again Thursday to drop off a few more things (I own a technology company I supply members of the Seahawks with ipads, TV's etc.) so that is basically my connection with them.  If I hear anything else I will pass it along.  Wish I could of seen practice today, was looking forward to that!

#3492169 Posty Appreciation Thread

Posted Flacco2Rice on 14 May 2013 - 03:07 PM

Thanks buddy for your reliable daily posts, posty. Your awesome, keep up the good work!

#3399090 2013 Offseason Closer Thread

Posted FearTheBeard on 29 March 2013 - 02:11 PM

Every year I spend a good chunk of March in Arizona watching Cactus League action - I was gonna do a full write up in the Spring Training discussion on interesting points from the two weeks but due to time I'll start with closers/bullpen situations.

Angels - Ernesto Frieri looked really bad both times I saw him, one of the games in Tempe I was sitting with Scouts and his velocity was 90-92, and I don't think I saw him in get swinging strike in two IP. Change up he's been working on looks like it will be ditched, his command was poor in the strike zone and was being hit very hard.

Dodgers - Saw League and Jansen, League twice - he looked like League looks when things are going well. In Surprise his velocity was 95-97, lots of GBs.  Also saw Jansen in Surprise(they turned gun off for him), nothing out of whack, racked up K's inducing some very ugly AB's.

Rangers - Not much to say here, saw Nathan throw an inning - slider was nasty, velocity low 90's.

Royals - Holland was still missing bats at a high rate but there's a few concerns. Like last year early he's really been battling his command, and his velocity has been down 2-3 mph(which I've already seen a few articles on). Something to keep an eye on. Herrera's ridiculous. And a sleeper for saves at some point/somewhere could be Luke Hochevar. In a one inning role his stuff was beyond filthy working 96-99, a knee buckler, and slider/change - he toyed with the middle of the Dodgers lineup.

Giants - Nothing to say here, never saw Romo. It's pretty clear at this point Lincecum doesn't belong in the rotation, I think if Romo gets hurt/falters Lincecum could close, as he was very impressive out of the bullpen last year. Giants fans seem to think the same. That Lincecum will be given a chance to be in the rotation with a short leash and a ticket to late inning relief in his pocket.

A's - Saw Balfour throw 1 IP, looked good, some loud contact, some cursing, typical Balfour. Never saw Cook, or Doolittle - apparently according to A's fans Doolittle has looked incredible this spring.

Reds - Nothing to say, saw them twice - no Chapman or Broxton.

Indians - Never saw Perez who just began throwing, but I can say Pestano looks nasty and in MUCH better shape than years past. Saw him throw two innings during my stay and was very impressed and Perez better start fast if he wants to keep that role.

Brewers - This' ugly...I didn't see Axford walk many but he has zero command of his CB and no one swings at it anymore due to that reason. Teams just sit on the belt high straight FB and rip it all over the place, lots of loud contact. I think '11 will be his outlier, he just isn't very good. While Jim Henderson looked even worse, so at least Ax Man has that going for him. Henderson pitched a 30 minute half inning, had no clue where anything was going.

Cubs - Never saw Marmol or Fujikawa. Talked to some Cubs fans and they really like what they've seen from Fujikawa, and no surprise - they said Marmol was a mess, and wasn't even missing bats.

Rockies - Never saw Betancourt...

DBacks - Putz looked just how you want your closer to look, really good and unexciting. Nothing outta the norm. Hernandez was filthy both times I saw him, he had some bad D behind him, and made a mistake with a hanger but all his pitches looked good.

White Sox - Reed was absolutely filthy both times I saw him, mid 90's low in the zone, and was using all his pitches well. I think having Flowers will help him, cause for some reason last year AJ wouldn't call for anything but a FB when Reed has excellent secondary stuff. I remember we talked about it quite a bit last year in the closer threads.

Padres - Street and Gregerson both looked excellent, nothing outta the ordinary. Street definitely already has good feeling for his change.

Mariners - Wilhelmsen looked pretty good, velocity was on par, 12-6er was diving, only flaw noticeable was still getting a feel for his command when I saw him a few times 7-10 days ago. Pryor has been filthy, but the real guy to watch out for this year and another sleeper for saves - Carter Capps - WOW...Absolute filth. Like Pryor he throws absolute ched - but is more deceptive and has a much better breaking ball. Carter Capps folks, Carter Capps.

#4464343 4/7/14 -- Lineups and Weather

Posted posty on 07 April 2014 - 12:02 PM

Post #10,000...

REDS (vs. M. Wacha - R)
1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Brandon Phillips ® 2B
3. Joey Votto (L) 1B
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
5. Ryan Ludwick ® LF
6. Todd Frazier ® 3B
7. Zack Cozart ® SS
8. Brayan Pena (S) C
9. Tony Cingrani (L) P

CARDINALS (vs. T. Cingrani - L)
1. Matt Carpenter (L) 3B
2. Peter Bourjos ® CF
3. Matt Holliday ® LF
4. Allen Craig ® RF
5. Yadier Molina ® C
6. Matt Adams (L) 1B
7. Jhonny Peralta ® SS
8. Kolten Wong (L) 2B
9. Michael Wacha ® P

#4302629 Ryan Anderson 2013-2014 Season Outlook

Posted Queequeg on 07 January 2014 - 12:46 PM

View PostMark Domingo, on 07 January 2014 - 12:41 PM, said:

He's owned by my main rival in one of my leagues and I couldn't be any happier. It's the necessary evil in fantasy lol. I'm sorry for you guys in the rotoworld forums community though, you all get one big virtual hug from me > :)<

I'm not an Anderson owner, but this is the kind of remark you should keep to yourself.

#4127371 Top 5 Mistakes Fantasy Basketball Players Make

Posted ReyesMurphyWright on 20 November 2013 - 02:23 PM

These are based on my observations not only among people in the Rotoworld forum, but also amongst my own fantasy basketball friends, and even many fantasy basketball "experts".

#1 - Exaggerating the differences between Roto and H2H

I see this one get made over and over again.  People have the belief that "well-rounded" players are useful in the Roto format, but not as useful in the Head-to-Head format.  This is simply false.  The only way in which this argument has any truth to it is that it is easier to punt a category in H2H.  So if you're punting a category, you then re-evaluate every player without that category.  For the remaining categories that you are playing for, all of the remaining categories still count equally.  Any way you slice it, "well rounded" players aren't less valuable in H2H than in Roto.

#2 - Overvaluing Points, Rebounds, and Assists.  (Hence undervaluing Steals, Blocks, 3PMs, FG%, FT% and Turnovers)

This is easily one of the most common mistakes people make.  Even when people understand that it's a 9 (or 8) category game and that all these categories count equally... inevitably people always tend to overrate these categories.  In particular, people have a tendency to overrate the importance. of Rebounds for big men and overrate the importance of Assists for point guards.  Since these are the categories that these players are "supposed" to get, people tend to overrate the importance of these categories.  For example, last year Asik was a very popular fantasy player - people saw him as a double-doubles machine.  They probably didn't realize that Asik was the 170th ranked player last year.  

#3 - Not fully understanding the impact of %s

I find it's something people don't pay enough attention to in general.  For example, 75% is a big psychological number for people with FT%.  People will usually feel fine with their player as long as they shoot over 75% from the line.  But there's actually a colossal difference in value between a 76% FT shooter and an 83% FT shooter - it just doesn't feel like there is to people.  People also often forget to pay attention to the impact of FG and FT attempts on a player's value.

#4 - Not understanding how to handle FT% killers

I see this happen over and over again.  People want to put FT% killers on their team and still hope to compete in FT%.  People usually overestimate the value of their FT% killer because they do not properly understand just how big a negative impact such a player has on their FT%.  More people need to be punting FT% when such players are owned.  Punting can be a great strategy for a team when done properly.  If however people are not punting, they should at least have a better understanding of exactly how valuable their FT% killer is for them.

#5 - Not taking advantage of Player Raters

I find that many people are more skeptical of player raters than they should be.  The player rater really is a great resource of fantasy basketball players.  You can compare the value of players on a per game basis.  You can find hidden potential hidden gems by seeing which players have great value on a per minute basis and have the potential to see increased playing time.  You can make your own sensible adjustments to player rater value, if for example a player with a proven track record is underperforming in a certain in a small sample size.  The player rater is your friend as a fantasy basketball player.


Posted Tarheels_2433 on 11 September 2013 - 07:00 PM

With football season in full swing, and an ever growing Forum population, we'd like to remind the posters that the Main Forum is for posting on discussion for general purposes.  This means team-specific issues, rosterbating, cool-story-bro moments - while they mean a lot to the poster posting - they don't fit the bill.   There are threads for celebration, venting, cool-story-bro posts - and there is a separate Forum to post roster or team/league-specific issues - the Assistant Coach (AC) Forum.

As RW Forums posting volume has increased, so has the # of these types of posts.   While it's understandable if it's happened unintentionally - it's also becoming clear the Main Forum is becoming overrun with AC posts, and the above types of posts which are hijacking player discussion.  Again, if it's someone learning for the first time, or inadvertent, we get that - but too many veterans are contributing to the problem.  We cannot stress this enough, this problem tends to grow exponentially because too many people see others doing it and think it's okay, but this only worsens the issue.  Lead by example and use the appropriate threads!  

The Main Forum is to help promote general fantasy discussion that's usable for the entire community.  To keep this focus, for those who can't stop - harsher penalties, including temporary disabling of posting privileges (or longer in the case of repeat offenders following prior penalties) .   Hopefully, this won't be necessary - but as all posters agree to abide by the CoC and Posting Rules when they join, notice that AC posting will need to be done in the AC Forum is clearly necessary.  

Given that the rules are well-known to returning members, we trust this reminder will help returning members keep Main Forum discussion for the community at large and away from AC/team content, and help new members avoid future problems as well.

Also, for the newest members:

PROBATIONARY MEMBERS - for those of you who have just joined, welcome!   While you are in a probationary status, please note two important differences from other members.  First, you can't send PM's or receive PM's until you move up to regular member (10+ posts).   Secondly, as of 2013, Probationary Members can reply to exisiting threads, but can't create new threads in the following Forums:

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As always, take a moment to read the RW Baseball Forum Posting Rules, RW Football Forum Posting Guidelines and RW Basketball Forum Posting Guidelines as this will cover all the areas of posting for RW members.   Welcome aboard!

#4449967 2014 April Closers Thread

Posted JFS171 on 01 April 2014 - 10:14 AM

Let's take a shot a surveying the damage from Monday... Here's a rundown of the situations I'm personally watching closely. I've somewhat listed them in order of prioritization -- think of this as my effort at a waiver wire complement to FTB's excellent breakdowns, which I hope he keeps going all year.

Make Your Move:
Brewers -- The first curve ball of the day, courtesy of Ron Roenicke. Henderson's velocity was way down this spring, but no one was talking about it -- most of us never heard about it. It was just assumed it was ST and this was Hendo's job. RR said Henderson can get the job back when he's throwing the way he did last year. I wasn't a pitcher, but I know bright red flags when I see them, and going from 97-98 down to 89-91 is a big one. Could be a mechanics thing, but you'd think they'd sort that out given they're the same team that managed to get Henderson to that point in the first place. There's no real pedigree here with Hendo, and once K-Rod gets rolling, he'll likely just keep this. He'd be my top add of all of yesterday's carnage and speculation, and it's not really close IMO (considering Santos was very likely added over the weekend). I'd rather own K-Rod than Santos, personally -- timing is important here. If K-Rod rolls off clean saves the next few weeks, he may never look back.

White Sox -- Robin's still dealing with post-Nolan brain trauma apparently, bypassing Jones and his elite skills for Lindstrom's experience. Lindstrom's the guy until he coughs it up... or Ventura changes his mind and informs someone else they'll be closing. Who knows? Opportunity is half the battle though (sometimes a lot more). Last year I thought I'd be *above* the saves chase and only grab guys I thought could be impact RPs, or at least safe... then Moonboots and Goggles reeled of 30+ saves with respectable ratios. This year it's back to grabbing the guy and sorting it out later -- that's Lindstrom in a nutshell. It likely won't be pretty, but there's the rub with small sample sizes. Lindstrom could be clean the next 3 weeks and end up with quite a leash. In other words, it's not just that the implosion is likely coming, it's the timing of said implosion, and whether the leash will be long enough to survive. He's a grab for now, but I won't be cutting Jones just yet. That being said, Jones may not get a shot anytime soon... timing is crucial.

Blue Jays -- This is Santos' gig for the foreseeable future, unless, of course, he struggles (I don't necessarily expect, but he's not been right for a few years now, and shoulder issues are very tricky. Janssen better hurry back, or he's not going to have a job to come back to. We've seen the Blue Jays move on and stick with the guy on a roll in an injury situation already -- that's how we ended up with Janssen. Now, as FTB points out, there's not just Santos gunning for the job, but Delabar is one heckuva RP in his own right. Either guy could be a very good closer, and if Janssen isn't back in a few weeks and Santos or Delabar is on a roll, well.... It's Santos for now, we all know that. Let's see how it plays out. Don't hesitate to jump on Delabar at the first sign of trouble. As for Janssen - stash him in your DL and hope he's back soon. I'm convinced the shoulder is a huge troll to fantasy owners, but his other issues... who knows? I'd also watch for compensation injuries as he returns (in fact, the back could already be a compensation injury from shoulder problems)... just sayin.

Astros -- Bo Porter tells us it’s CBC, but they’d like a guy to emerge.  Chad Qualls has been quite the enigma throughout his career, mixing solid stretches with some BP sessions.  I believe Fields has the best skills here, and is the guy I think has a chance to run with this.  It’ll be telling if he gets the first chance after such a great spring.  Fields’ stuff is excellent, but he’s got to keep that control in check.  Spring suggests he may be learning to do so, but time will tell.  Solid DL speculation play in Jesse Crain as well, but it seems like there’s always something with that guy.  For now, I’m rostering Fields where I need saves.

Reds -- They’re at the bottom of the Make Your Move section for me because I have no idea who’s going to close for the first few months.  Logic says it would be Broxton, but he’s gotta get healthy first.  Meanwhile it will likely go to Hoover first, but I’m not sure I really trust him coming off such a brutal spring.  He’s on the wire in a lot of my more competitive save-chasing leagues, which I find telling.  I’d stash Broxton in a DL slot if you had that ability… think he could pay off for a few months.  Chapman should be fine and ready to go sometime in May, but again… while we’ve had a lot of positives from his camp and the Reds, and while I wish the guy nothing but the best off such a brutal injury, we have no idea how this mentally will affect him.  Catching a rocket with your melon likely tends to play with your thoughts….  It’s worth monitoring.

Rockies -- They likely deserve their own section as a potential mess we could be be tracking for a while.  Gut says Hawkins gets the gig unless he’s totally ineffective/uncomfortable with it.  Brothers could be nasty... if he could stop walking people.  No idea when that will happen.  I list them here because there's a chance either guy is floating on a wire in a few leagues, and Betancourt continues to train at the Rockies ST facility.  He thinks he’ll be ready to pitch in August… who knows.  He’s a name to file away in the back of your mind should both these guys struggle.  I’d probably rather roster Brothers, but Hawkins has the opportunity.  Moonboots and Goggles is likely doomed to be my year long mantra, I guess.  Possession of the gig is key.

Keep an Eye On:
Indians -- I haven’t trusted Axford for a few seasons now, and though he secured the save last night, quite a few reports in here saying he didn’t look awesome doing so.  Messy saves are part of Axford’s MO… in addition to serving up cheese and walking dudes.  I personally have Cody Allen rostered in a lot of leagues.  It’s not going to help Ax-man when the guys behind him are seriously nasty… thinking this one’s only a matter of time, though as I’ve mentioned earlier with timing, it’d be better for those speculating on Allen if Axford just imploded right out of the chute.  It could happen – I have zero faith in that guy.

Orioles -- Hunter got the save, but I still can’t look at those splits and see this ending well.  Had the Red Sox sent up someone other than JBJ, we may be talking about another blown save on Day 1.  Meek would appear to have some faith from Buck, and I like hearing FTB say he was impressed by a guy, even if he was a little wild.  The cutter can overcome some of his velocity loss, and we’ve seen this guy succeed before.  Now he’s a reinvented version of his former self, but IMO he’s the most interesting arm in that pen for the non-Hunter speculation plays.  Probably not a need to jump just yet, but absolutely worth keeping an eye on.

Mets -- Parnell blew the save yesterday, but I was encouraged that his velocity was up from ST.  I think he’s still working back a bit.  Papa Fat a** managed to finagle his way into yet another path to saves… much like a cockroach – he just won’t go away.  I refuse to roster that guy, even if he gets saves.  Cannot imagine it possibly ending well.  He had a clean inning yesterday, and Parnell didn’t.  But IMO, Parnell didn’t look terrible – as others have commented, he was a bit too predictable, needed to change up his sequencing, and be a bit sharper.  I’m not bailing just yet.  We’ll see how this one plays out.  In fact, if a Parnell owner was panicking, I’d be buying.  But, I also trust myself to replace him should the bottom fall out.  I just don’t think the bottom is falling out yet, or any time soon.

Giants -- I ONLY list them because Romo's elbow is constantly barking, he threw zero sliders this spring, and generally didn't look great. Most, myself included, dismissed it because he wasn't using his best weapon. Still, there's some smoke here... it's a little like when Wilson first struggled a few years ago... then poof, he's gone. Just something to keep an eye on, but I believe we may get the fun-time CBC should Romo go down... though I believe Casilla would get first shot as he did when Wilson's elbow gave out. Hembree or Law could be a long-term option, but both are currently in the minors.

Nationals -- Soriano is the guy, and will be the guy until there’s cause to make a change.  I list him because I believe that cause could be coming sooner than we might think.  He could very well skate through a few months without issues, but the peripherals don’t point to this ending as well as it did last year, and leashes always seem shorter on teams with big-time post-season aspirations.  The question behind Soriano is whether Williams likes having Clippard in his usual fireman role and would elevate former stud closer Storen, OR whether he simply slides everyone back an inning and gives Clippard a shot.  It’s a situation worth monitoring.

Athletics -- Jim Johnson very likely has a huge leash here… he’s had 50+ saves the past two years with a sub-3.00 ERA.  I know he doesn’t strike anyone out, but he’s been pretty damn solid.  I don’t own him anywhere, but I’d think he has to completely fall off the cart before the saves chase begins.  With regard to who’s next in line… good luck.  Cook would be the obvious guy (I think) but he’s on the DL.  Doolittle has been pretty nasty, but he’s a lefty.  Gregerson has been a great set-up man for a long time… may be a free for all if Johnson continues to struggle, but again I think we need to see 5 or 6 of these before we’re really talking.

Diamondbacks -- Reed serves up a bomb, but I think the leash is pretty long here... they gave up quite a bit to get him. If it's not him, with no Hernandez you have to think it'd go to Putz. No clue how he threw this spring, but... guess he's the one to watch if Reed's troubles persist.

Move Along, Nothing to See Here (yet—interesting next-in-lines in parentheses):
AL EAST -- Boston, Tampa, New York (Tazawa/Mujica should Koji succumb to father time, Heath Bell I guess)
AL CENTRAL -- Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota (Jared Burton could be interesting in the second half if Perkins is shopped)
AL WEST -- Los Angeles, Texas, Seattle (Lord Fahrquar if Rodney blows, but he’s got a fat paycheck; Feliz in theory - not buying)
NL EAST -- Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia (AJ Ramos could be intriguing should Cishek be shopped mid-year)
NL CENTRAL -- St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Chicago (Melancon in Pittsburgh is a priority guy – first sign of Grilli struggles; Strop in CHC)
NL WEST -- Los Angeles, San Diego (Benoit … when Street pulls his annual DL stint or sucks for a while, I’m not sure he’ll get it back)

#4480044 2014 April Closers Thread

Posted The Dirtdog on 14 April 2014 - 11:24 AM

So for those of us that don't have time to read the 137 pages, lets do a quick recap on all the volatile situations right now:

Jim Johnson
Ryan Cook
Luke Gregerson
Sean Doolittle

Looks to be a closer by committee right now, would not surprise me in the least of Jim Johnson gets the job back in the next few weeks.

Matt Lindstrom
Daniel Webb
Maikel Cleto

I'm not gonna bother with analysis because it's Ventura, but the majority seem to believe Webb is the guy to own.

Jose Veras
Hector Rondon
Pedro Strop
Justin Grimm

Rondon seems to be the most talented of this group, and nailed down his only opportunity on Friday.  I'm taking a shot on him.

Chad Qualls
Josh Fields
Anthony Bass
Jesse Crain

Committee, maybe that changes when Crain comes back but he's never been a closer either.  I'm staying far, far away.

Joe Nathan
Al Albequerque (sp?)
Joba Chamberlain

Nathan's been rocked early, but he should have a decent leash.

John Axford
Cody Allen

Axford blew his last shot, but it was only his first blown save and he should be given plenty of chances to lose the job.  Allen is just a stash right now.

Francisco Rodriguez
Jim Henderson

Krod with the job now and he's been almost unhittable this year.  Henderson had it last season, so there's still a chance if Krod falters even a little that Henderson gets it back.

Aroldis Chapman
Jonathan Broxton
Sean Marshall
JJ Hoover

Chapman is out until June most likely, and Broxton has been touted as the closer but hasn't had a save chance yet.  Marshall should get the job if Broxton fails, as Hoover already has failed.

NY Mets
Jose Valverde
Gonzalez German
Kyle Farnsworth
Joel Hanrahan?

Valverde still has the job, but he blew his last one and we've been down this road before.  German is my guess to replace him, but Farnsworth is an option as well since he's done it before.  This is also one of the potential landing spots for Joel Hanrahan.

NY Yankees
David Robertson
Shawn Kelley
Matt Thornton
David Phelps

Robertson out for a bit longer, and Kelley has the job now.

Casey Janssen
Sergio Santos

Janssen was the closer last year and had a great year.  Santos has the stuff to be a dominant closer and has been filthy since taking over.  I am not confident that Janssen gets the job back without a serious blowup from Santos, I'd go Santos for the rest of the season.

I think that's all the up in the air jobs right now.  Please feel free to let me know any mistakes I made.

#4282054 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013-2014 Season Outlook

Posted taenggg on 29 December 2013 - 03:43 PM

View PostBringthesonicsback, on 29 December 2013 - 03:37 PM, said:

Lol wtf.. alpha has potential to be a solid player/ maybe a star but lets not treat him like a god.. C'mon guys

a regular god is nothing compared to a greek god

#4256227 Kobe Bean Bryant 2013-2014 Season Outlook

Posted markdash on 19 December 2013 - 09:36 PM

Los Angeles (AP) - Despite a difficult fight against Kobe Bryant for the past 17 years, Father Time has once again emerged victorious and continues to be undefeated all-time.

Bryant, 35, the polarizing shooting guard of the Los Angeles Lakers, had challenged Time's supremacy by staying in superb shape and playing through a litany of injuries over the course of his professional career. This season he even temporarily gained the upper hand by returning just 8 months after a complete tear of his Achilles tendon, an injury that is usually catastrophic for professional basketball players, especially those in their mid-30s. However, Time claimed a TKO by breaking a bone in Bryant's knee, which spelled the end of the challenge.

Father time, age infinite, had previously survived challenges from Grigori Rasputin, John Franco, and Jack LaLanne, among others. With the TKO victory over Bryant, his record moves to 10,762,984,552-0.

"I honestly thought Bryant was going to win this one," commented rotoworld.com forum member Now_I_Know. "Who better to defeat Father Time than God's gift to basketball himself?"

Despite the setback, some still believe Bryant may be able to defeat Time, including Now_I_Know. "30 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists next year. Book it."

#4120782 End gaming: Planning for the Playoffs

Posted jstep13 on 19 November 2013 - 09:38 AM

View Postmrko1990, on 18 November 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

My team just locked up a playoff spot after this week in one of my many leagues! It's a 20 team, 4 division league 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE/RB flex spot, 2 WR/TE/RB/QB flex spot... I am now 9-1 and after this week I will be 10-1, the only thing I am fighting for is the number one or number two seed "only 6 teams make the main playoffs!" Right now I am now in 1st place and have been for the last 7 weeks. I played the 2nd place team this week and whipped his team back into shape, I beat him 200 to 130, his team is 8-2 & now 8-3 and he will be tied with 4 other teams at 8-3 with 3 weeks to go.. I already have a win penciled in for week 14.. So I believe I got the number seed locked up but you can never be so sure! So the worst I can finish is 11-3 tied with those other 3 teams. The funny part is half my team is from the WW! ;~D The trade deadline already passed last Friday so, there is no need for that.

This may be the highest word count I have ever seen that does absolutely nothing to help this thread.

#4116809 Lessons You've Learned This Year

Posted 9703 on 18 November 2013 - 11:42 AM

Don't overvalue RB's.
Don't play fantasy football ever again because it's all a bunch of bullshit.

#3370983 Assessing Injury Risks with Pitchers

Posted Bruz on 08 March 2013 - 12:35 PM

Over the past few years I've grown tired of all these fantasy "experts" talking about the Verducci effect, and predicting injuries simply by looking at numbers on a page of stats.  Let me preface this post by saying that this is my OPINION.  I am just trying to help other fantasy owners by teaching them what to actually look for when determining the injury risk associated with a particular pitcher.

My credibility: I am a 26 year old, former pre-season all-american pitcher, who never made it past the collegiate level due to a rash of arm injuries both to my ulner collateral ligiment and biceps tendon.  I know arm injuries first hand.  Also, throughout my life i've been taught by some of the finest baseball instructors around... guys who coach current major leaguers and used to play in the bigs themselves.

First things first, the Verducci effect, in my opinion, and that of many other highly regarded baseball people, is a farse.  Why?  It is simple.  For major leaguers, starting pitchers throw on a very structured schedule.  They pitch every 5th day and condition their bodies and arms to do so.  If a major leaguer trains their arm properly, and uses good mechanics, they should not experience any structural problems other than possible fatigue or "dead arm" which is very common. What I am trying to say is this: so long as you  train properly IT IS NOT HOW OFTEN YOU THROW, BUT HOW YOU THROW (Mechanically speaking) THAT CAUSES INJURY.

Now... That being said, what is the proper way to throw? Each person has their own unique mechanics, and there is not a "perfect cookie-cutter delivery" that every pitcher should follow.  However, there are a certain parts of a delivery that a pitcher must execute correctly in order to avoid injury.  Here are the 5 biggest things to watch out for:

1. Any pitcher that fails to get there arm ready (hand above elbow and preferably as high as the ear or top of the head) to drive forward either before or as soon as their glove foot lands is in jeopardy. The most gruesome injury here isn't TJ, but the spiral fracture of the Humerus (upper arm). Cole Hamels did this in high school btw. (MLB Examples: Jarrod Parker, Shelby Miller)

2. Any pitcher that swings their arm behind their shoulder line or (like Lincecum or Porcello) sticks their arms straight down (Jarrod Parker), is in jeopardy.

2a. Pitchers that have a combination of #1 or #2 often creates what is call an "Inverted W" in their delivery.  Their glove and throwing arms create what looks like an upside down W. Throwing hand below their elbow, shoulder blades clinched... Google image search inverted W throwing motion and you will see plenty of examples... You can pretty much take it to the bank that if a SP does this, they will wind up with some sort of elbow or shoulder injury... Need examples? Sure... Mark Prior, John Smoltz, Adam Wainwright, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Reyes, C.J. Wilson, A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum... I could go on and on.

3. Any pitcher that strides so far that they have to bend at the waist, is in jeopardy of blowing out their lower back, and stressing their glove knee. (Roy Oswalt)

4. Any pitcher that allows their pitching arm to be flung away from their body (on their pitching side) or allows their glove side to fly open will have shoulder problems. (Peavy, Samardzija)

5. Any pitcher that supinates any pitch will develop bone chips or bone spurs (Sabathia) OR break their elbow (Zumaya).

My advice would be to just look for video on whatever pitcher you wish to analyze, and simply try to pause the video at certain points in his delivery. Take a look at where his hand is in relation to his elbow... check out his stride, see how he follows through with both his glove and pitcher arm. That's what I do, and I have had great success over the years when it comes to the health of my fantasy rotation.

Many pitchers nowadays ignore problems with their arms because of the growing success rate of Tommy John... Rather than make adjustments at the risk of losing their effectiveness, they just let their tendons take them as far as possible until they rupture, and then call in the re-inforcements. Post Tommy John tendons have a 5-10 year shelf-life. Tendons are tougher than ligaments, however the original ligament had the benefit of a blood supply, meaning it could partially repair itself. The new "ligament," has no blood supply. So once it starts to go, it goes fast.

Fun fact: Strasburg didn't rupture his UCL. A partial tear was found, and the Nats convinced him to have the surgery rather than rehab it because they figured a full rupture was probably going to happen. Technically speaking, he has a tendon overlaying his original ligament... MLB teams are more worried about maximizing the return on their investment, and unfortunately, they have stayed from teaching pitchers the proper mechanics.  This is because they know that, rather than tinkering with their mechanics, a simple surgery with a high success rate can repair their pitchers with only a year of down time. If it doesn't work... well, they can always just draft the next "phenom".

P.S. - Have any of these geniuses who swear by the "Verducci Effect" ever actually sat down and watched video of how these pitchers actually throw? Have any of them every realized that the greater the number of innings a pitcher throws, the greater the probablity of injury? That is just pure math.  Obviously a pitcher who throws 20 innings has less risk than a pitcher who throws 200... Injury jumps increase the probability of an injury no matter how a person throws...not because of a structual problem. Food for thought!

Hope you guys are able to take this information and put it to good use.  I am here for anyone who has questions, whether it be on the technicality of the mechanics i just explained, or if they need help analyzing a certain pitchers mechanics.


#4051127 Keenan Allen 2013 Season Outlook

Posted RotoRaysfan on 06 November 2013 - 01:51 PM

Guys, it seems time for a few reminders:

1.  On-topic discussion and discussion on points made are more than OK, it's what stimulates good dialogue and how we learn from each other.  
2.  However, making the same point over & over again, when the discussion goes literally pages-long on the same points made from both sides, doesn't help anyone learn.   Using new information, or analysis, that's the most helpful type of posting.
3.  Let's avoid both the personal callouts, and on the flip side, telling those you disagree with how to post, that's neither productive, and frankly, only derails the convo further.
4.  If you really think it's not worth reading posts, or can't avoid responding & rehashing the same points after pages of the same discussion, then use the ignore feature.  If you can't post anything new, take a break and simply watch - let others present new info if you have nothing new.  And yes, ignoring posters doesn't remove the ability to see responses to those posters, but nothing's perfect.

With that in mind, the undeniable facts on Allen, and a summary:

1.  Since he's been instituted as the regular starting WR, Allen has put up 31 receptions, 497 yards, and and 3 TD's - in PPR, that's 98.7 points.   In standard leagues, that's still top-20 WR production for that period.   And as it's been well-documented, it's been very consistent.

2.  SD has faced a very fantasy friendly schedule - that's entirely valid.  But, that's also the reality of what determines player value.   If Larry Fitzgerald had a decent QB and didn't have to face top D's 4x a year with SF/SEA, I'm sure the outlook on him would have been much higher. It's why every DEN player should be upgraded except when they face KC.   Arguing it's solely responsible for sustained success is highly dubious, to be kind.  What's even better is how SD has to play in shootouts - that means tons of targets and red-zone opps (more on that in a minute).   And the need for SD to play in shootouts is only going to increase, given who they face coming up, and their preference for the pass in the red zone.

3.  As it's been referenced numerous times, Allen's skills-analysis had him as the top rated WR entering the draft before his last year in the NCAA, only to be derailed by poor QB play, and a PCL injury that wrecked his combine & speed stats.   So, when you look at a skills perspective, Allen's rise is not only supported, it's re-inforced.

I think we can agree on the above.   In the same spirit of trying to move the discussion forward, I'll add this myself:

4.  In the end, if you want to predict future production, it's all about targets & red-zone looks.  Target-wise, let's break it down:

1.  Allen from Week 4 to now - 44 targets, and more importantly, 18 of them in the red zone - http://www.rotowire....yer.htm?ID=8627 .  

As a reference...

2.  Eddie Royal -  21 targets, 2 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire....yer.htm?id=5690
3.  Vincent Brown - 29 targets, 3 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire.... \
4.  Antonio Gates -  44 targets, 12 red zone targets - http://www.rotowire....
5.  Danny Woodhead - 37 targets, 14 red-zone targets - http://www.rotowire....

Before anyone asks why Week 4 - now - it's simple, Allen wasn't installed as the starting WR until then.  Given that he's entrenched as the starting WR, that's the relevant time period to select.  So, what the target & red zone since he became a starter tells us - Allen is the most overall-targeted player with Gates, and is the leading red-zone target.  If you want a predictor of stability, you can find no better one that those measures, and they not only support, they re-inforce the notion he'll be a consistent target and red zone threat.   When it comes down to it, other arguments do not stand up nearly as well to using targets & red zone looks - it's why there's a column dedicated to this each week that's updated on the main site (keeping in mind the Main Site & Forums are separate, so please, don't link them together), and why it's included in mainstream stat sites nowadays.

There are tons of situations where players produce a crazy week or two (I'm looking at you Riley Cooper & Jericho Cotchery), and people are right to question if it's for real.  But when you combine the fact we've seen it for 5 weeks now, the skills that were already there but hidden by his NCAA injury, and the targets/red-zone profile, the only logical conclusion to draw is that Allen is a legit WR2 this season, with WR1 upside for the future - including the rest of this year, given his usage & targeting (>8 targets a week and >3 red zone looks is awesome if you have a decent QB, which Rivers clearly qualifies as this season).  If you go waaaay back to Week 5, I called him a WR3 with WR2 upside, because I didn't think he could become the #1 guy target/red-zone-wise (which is what you need to become a WR1/high-WR2).  But, amazingly enough, his usage has made that possible to tag him accordingly.   And, while every WR1 or WR2 can get shut down in the odd week (as an AJ Green and D-Train owner, I can attest to that), the winning owners are ones that use solid scouting of skills, combined with understanding of targets & red zone looks to see if players are getting the opportunity to keep producing - and Allen doesn't just get a lukewarm green flag, he has bright green flags running over & over.  

Add it up, and what it means - unless you have 3 top 10 WR's on your team already, he's locked & loaded into your lineups.  And yes, barring an injury to him or Rivers, hard to see him not being the WW pickup of the year for most standard or PPR redraft leagues (and at the very least, a podium winner).

#4049087 Zac Stacy 2013 Season Outlook

Posted mmm sod on 06 November 2013 - 02:07 AM

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#4042827 Percy Harvin 2013 Season Outlook

Posted RJRJRJ on 04 November 2013 - 10:36 PM

View Posttyler360, on 04 November 2013 - 10:15 PM, said:

I need Percy to help me beat my GF this week!!!

edit: *needed

You'd probably be better off with Brandon Marshall.

#3958341 Calvin Johnson 2013 Season Outlook

Posted kingjames02392 on 20 October 2013 - 04:12 PM

Triple Coverage? No problem

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