58 replies to this topic

[GottaGetTheWin]

What are some of the biggest mistakes you think fantasy players make?

It can be during the draft, in the season, whenever...

I think one of the biggest I've seen over the many years and one that I know I've made many times myself.  Drafting(or not drafting players) based on where they are ranked or where the draft site has them ranked.  I see all the time someone not drafting a player they want because they aren't ranked to be drafted for another two rounds.  They draft someone they'd rather not have becasue they are higher on the pre-ranks and then they end up losing out on their guy.

This year I found myself a lot of the time in like Round 6-8 in this place where it was too early for my sleepers but no one on the board really enticed me.  Sometimes I just went with my sleepers and sometimes I just grabbed someone that I hated.  I think in scenarios like that just grab your guy.  Maybe he won't go till 11th round but if you have no one you want and you want the sleeper then they not grab him.

This doesn't mean to take someone in the early rounds if they have a 13th round ADP but if it's 9th round and you have no one at the top of the board you like then why not??

[sfdevil]

being reactionary to past games/past year. just because things happened in one game doesnt mean it will happen in the next. dont pay for last year/game, pay for this year/particular game

this applies not only to fantasy. in fact it probably applies more so in real football. people quick to praise a team after a blowout win but then quick to sour on a team being blown out.

[egomaniac247]

Initially I was going to say "not playing your studs" but I think the majority of fantasy players don't fall into that....BUT...

To me it's buying into the hype of something you hear on the forums or on tv.   There were several times this past year where it was a SHOE-IN that player XYZ was going to go off (or defense ABC was going to destroy someone) only to see them falter.


For me personally I think it's undervaluing QB's in the draft over the past 3-4 years.  I've never been one to draft Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady in the 1st round.  The problem is I wait too long and I end up with Schaub or Eli Manning.  Now in some years that's worked okay but in other years it hasn't.

But I will say that if there was ever a year for waiting, it's this year.  There's legit QB's available even 6 rounds deep.

[Proteus]

I agree that people are  overly cautious about "reaching" for their guys during drafts--within reason, or course.

Another thing I see is guys grabbing by position too earnestly instead of taking the best player on the board.

The last thing that keeps me in Christmas money every year is about one third to one half of the owners I've played with aren't diligent enough to get the good WW grabs each week, even as it may pertain to squeezing every point they can out of DSTs and kickers.

Edited by Proteus, 20 January 2013 - 07:58 PM.

[rraayy3]

I basically burned my picks in rounds 5-8 because I was the exact opposite of cautious in 2012.

It's just too bad Hillis/Young/K.Smith/Britt were beyond useless all year.

I didnt anticipate having to ride Knowshon Moreno into the playoffs, but whatever.

[fredth3cat]

Totally agree about reaching for the guys you want. End-of-the-year stats NEVER match up with preseason ADPs.

If you do your own research and feel more-educated than your fellow drafters, there is nothing wrong with making some ballsy picks.

[Lebowski87]

Thinking your roster is already set and not adding anyone. Injuries will always happen and regardless of how good your team initially looks on paper, it probably won't near the end of the season. You should always have at least 4 RB's who can start, even if it's tough to keep them all at first, there will probably be injuries.

Don't be too late on WW pickups. Obviously there's some one week wonders like Ogeltree but there were many more who were legit all season long. Don't be afraid to pick these guys up and ride them for as long as you can. I also have a bad habit of picking up someone, cutting him after one bad game then watching him explode. Look at the player in the whole context of the game. If he still got a lot of looks but didn't produce, they will probably keep having faith in him.

[DocJ]

Proteus, on 20 January 2013 - 07:57 PM, said:

Another thing I see is guys grabbing by position too earnestly instead of taking the best player on the board.

This is the mistake I still make in some drafts even after 12 years of fantasy football, usually thinking I need crazy depth at RB. I vow to never make that one again....until next Sept 2 when I will undoubtedly take someone like SJax or FJax instead of V. Cruz or R. White.

I also agree with the don't chase playoff performances for next season. Think of how stupid everyone who drafted V. Davis in the 4-5th round this season feels right now.

Edited by DocJ, 21 January 2013 - 10:47 AM.

[PhilBinLaden]

Most people play for the season and not game by game. I think its good to play that way for half a season, and then after the first half, its all out war to win each week you play, and if you have to drop your number 1 draft pick because he's hurt, you do it because you don't know what tomorrow will bring of him or of the waiver wire.  If your RB1 gets hurt (McFadden/MJD) and you're past the 6 week mark, then move on without him and find the first replacement, or keep finding his replacement because there are always a couple Bryce Bowns to be had at the end of your season to help propel your team during playoff time. You can't get attached to your guys because then you find yourself playing a man down each week when you don't want to make room by dropping that said star player.

Never give up on a season even if you have bad luck with your draft picks. Drafted Rounds 2-4 McFadden, Fred Jackson, and Antonio Gates, and dropped Alfred Morris in Week 1 (too scared of having Shanahan running backs for the season so first waiver wire I could get, I took). I thought the final straw was when Percy Harvin got injured late in the fantasy season for me, and I was out of the playoff hunt...or so I thought. I needed 2 teams to lose their final game and I needed to out score one of those teams in that final week by 30 points, and that was the week LeSean McCoy was Concussed and I picked up Bryce Brown who went on a 2-week rampage,  his first week rampage was the Monday night game against Carolina where I was down by 32 points in the final regular season game of my league, and only Bryce Brown left to play, and I was so sure that my season was over, I already called to congratulate the other guy for getting into the playoffs for his first time ever in our league. Then Brown scored something like 36 points for me to oust the guy that should have had the last seed in the playoffs. I didn't go all the way, but I still made pay dirt in the playoffs this season that should otherwise have been a season of shambles for me.

Also, never get content with your team because like someone else already said, injuries happen to anyone and everyone, so why let the best waiver wire guys go to other teams who then take you out of your playoff hopes because you didn't think you needed to make that one move if nothing else but to take a guy out of the waiver wire scene that could potentially hurt you.

I also agree with another poster that said get the guys that you are high on, and don't worry so much about where you drafted them because if you were right to be high on them and they were meant to be number one at their position then who cares where/when you got them above or below the ADP value that most others were drafting them. Most often, your league scores different than these sites that give you ADP values so don't let that rule your thought process in the draft, just know that those values are just guidelines and not written in stone. I took Matt Ryan in the 5th round even though his ADP had him going in the 7th or later, and I was lucky because that round started the second coming of QBs taken in my draft (Romo, RG3, Luck, Eli, Vick, Cutler), and I would have been stuck with a guy like Flacco had I waited one more pick.

[Wardog]

Last-minute lineup changes rarely ever turn out well for me. Usually your first instict is the right one. It's kind of like pool when you line up for your shot. Most of the time your mind will instinctively line it up right for you initially. Second-guessing yourself and adjusting your aim will almost always lead to a miss.

[shypri]

GottaGetTheWin, on 20 January 2013 - 06:46 PM, said:

What are some of the biggest mistakes you think fantasy players make?

They waste too much time for fantasy

[RADickey4Prez]

Drafting Darren McFadden

[My Dinner With Andre]

Probably, thinking too much? Just close your eyes and pick a player, don't waste your time crunching numbers or doing any analysis.

[rraayy3]

My Dinner With Andre, on 22 January 2013 - 02:40 AM, said:

Probably, thinking too much? Just close your eyes and pick a player, don't waste your time crunching numbers or doing any analysis.

I've resorted to calling my grandmother, giving her 2 or 3 names, and having her pick the name to start ["yeah, i like that name Danario"]

It worked surprisingly well. I also consult my sister/mother when available. Their unparalleled uniform color analysis is a major advantage for me when deciding start/sits.

the sad part is they are usually right.

[GottaGetTheWin]

rraayy3, on 22 January 2013 - 01:07 PM, said:

My Dinner With Andre, on 22 January 2013 - 02:40 AM, said:

Probably, thinking too much? Just close your eyes and pick a player, don't waste your time crunching numbers or doing any analysis.

I've resorted to calling my grandmother, giving her 2 or 3 names, and having her pick the name to start ["yeah, i like that name Danario"]

It worked surprisingly well. I also consult my sister/mother when available. Their unparalleled uniform color analysis is a major advantage for me when deciding start/sits.

the sad part is they are usually right.

Goes to prove my signature right.

[pacosarae]

There's legit QB's available even 6 rounds deep.

[cbe_88]

Wardog, on 21 January 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Last-minute lineup changes rarely ever turn out well for me. Usually your first instict is the right one. It's kind of like pool when you line up for your shot. Most of the time your mind will instinctively line it up right for you initially. Second-guessing yourself and adjusting your aim will almost always lead to a miss.

I agree here. I try and decide my line-up as soon as that Monday rolls around, switching up the day of turns out to be a bad decision more times than not for me.

[rraayy3]

Peyton Hillis, Titus Young, Kevin Smith, Kenny Britt ... all in a row.

[chicagowhitesox1173]

GottaGetTheWin, on 22 January 2013 - 02:08 PM, said:

rraayy3, on 22 January 2013 - 01:07 PM, said:

My Dinner With Andre, on 22 January 2013 - 02:40 AM, said:

Probably, thinking too much? Just close your eyes and pick a player, don't waste your time crunching numbers or doing any analysis.

I've resorted to calling my grandmother, giving her 2 or 3 names, and having her pick the name to start ["yeah, i like that name Danario"]

It worked surprisingly well. I also consult my sister/mother when available. Their unparalleled uniform color analysis is a major advantage for me when deciding start/sits.

the sad part is they are usually right.

Goes to prove my signature right.

I think you may be right on this, I joined a fantasy football league and I never even heard of Marshawn Lynch or Arian Foster and I won the championship. I didn't even put lineups in until the 5th week when I noticed I was 4-0. One of the weeks I had two injured players and I still won. Although when I did start trying and learning more about fantasy football, I picked up some good defenses which helped me out alot in the playoffs.

Actually the one thing I feel helped me out alot was picking up new defenses each week.

[egomaniac247]

Here's one more that I've thought of recently.......and I thought of it because I fall into it.

I am always about 1-2 years "behind" on moving on from players.  What I mean is that while everyone iin 2007 is moving on to new young bucks Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, and Marshawn Lynch, I'm stll over-valuing Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, and LT.


Two seasons from now I could see myself over-valuing a Ray Rice, MJD, or Frank Gore in lieu of the whoever the guys are entering their primes at that point (Like maybe a Doug Martin).


At some point you have to move on from the workhorses of yesterday (for example Steven Jackson this year)  The gamble is if you can get another strong year of production out of them or if you've missed the boat.

Edited by egomaniac247, 27 January 2013 - 07:04 PM.