214 replies to this topic

[cbe_88]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 12:29 PM, said:

cbe_88, on 18 January 2013 - 12:13 PM, said:

Who are the RB's you like in the 2nd round? None are really screaming to be taken that early after the elite tier is gone in the 1st. And I like some 3rd/4th RB's that could put up comparable if not better stats than some 2nd round RB's.

I'm not a fan of avoiding players in the second round (or any round) because it's "too early" -- the truth is that there will be plenty of RBs who finish the 2013 season with values well above where they were drafted. I'll be targeting guys like MJD and Trent Richardson in the second round.

Which RBs do you like in rounds 3-6?

I'm absolutely a fan of not taking a player "too early" when there's a very good chance I could have gotten him an entire round later. I believe you should only draft an RB in the 2nd if that's where they're projected to go, if there are RB's you really believe will live up to that ADP in the 2nd round go for it. But don't get an RB too early in the 2nd. There should only be a select few players you have in mind and relentlessly believe in that you should be willing to take an entire round too early to ensure landing him.

so with that said, your best argument is MJD, I can see that, that's probably your best bet with an RB in the 2nd. T-Rich however, you'd be very lucky to nab in the 2nd. Several owners won't mind grabbing him with their late first rounder next year, and if he lasts till the 2nd we're talking the first couple picks of the 2nd round. Don't see much else in the 2nd for RB's.

Rounds 3-6, I like Murray in the 3rd-4th round range. Not a huge fan of, nor is he on my target list, but DMC is an RB worth noting that will be available this late as long as OAK changes their blocking scheme. And I even like Sproles. With Payton coming back, the lock for receptions from the most accurate passer in the league has the ability to break off good yardage on those receptions. And Brees throws the most TD passes in the NFL, and I think Sproles will get in on that pretty decently. And Sproles will be an even later 5th-6th round guy. Also, Law-Firm isn't a guy I wouldn't mind, as of right now, for a 5th round guy if I want to focus on WR's earlier, however, that's liable to change if Cincy drafts an RB early.

[cbe_88]

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 12:46 PM, said:

Will Trent b cursed by Norv ..... dun dun DUN!

You only need one RB1 but it has to b a top 5 guy else your other two RBs as long as they r serviceable 12-20 ranked guys ur good.

Two stud WRs could b a difference this yr as there are only 6-7 clearcut #1s and a whole lot of "upside" #2s

couldn't agree more. getting two stud WR's could be extremely valuable next year. There's more top-tiered fantasy WR's next year to pick-up than the few elite RB's.

[FML]

Pretty sure I will go WR-WR once again to start my drafts unless I somehow pick in the top 4. Mega and Green/Julio were my 1-2 picks in about 4 leagues and it served me well.

[ToO_BaD]

cbe_88, on 18 January 2013 - 12:48 PM, said:

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 12:46 PM, said:

Will Trent b cursed by Norv ..... dun dun DUN!

You only need one RB1 but it has to b a top 5 guy else your other two RBs as long as they r serviceable 12-20 ranked guys ur good.

Two stud WRs could b a difference this yr as there are only 6-7 clearcut #1s and a whole lot of "upside" #2s

couldn't agree more. getting two stud WR's could be extremely valuable next year. There's more top-tiered fantasy WR's next year to pick-up than the few elite RB's.

Yeah I agree as well.  And I don't play PPR usually, so getting consistent yardage/TDs is important.  As far as RB, I just want a workhorse guy this year.  I can't play the guessing game with committee guys.

[fredth3cat]

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

[Zak0221]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

There will also be backup RBs that you plug in during week 9 thatll give you a serviceable 12 pts...

Having two WRs that you can pencil in 10-15 pts a week is HUGE, the number of WRs that you for sure can count on for double digits a week is very slim compared to RB.  

If you miss out on CJ, AJ, Green, Julio, Roddy, DT, BMarsh then yes just snatch up all the RBs avail and go for the some of the more questionable WR2 with WR1 upside later.

[cbe_88]

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 01:47 PM, said:

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

There will also be backup RBs that you plug in during week 9 thatll give you a serviceable 12 pts...

Having two WRs that you can pencil in 10-15 pts a week is HUGE, the number of WRs that you for sure can count on for double digits a week is very slim compared to RB.  

If you miss out on CJ, AJ, Green, Julio, Roddy, DT, BMarsh then yes just snatch up all the RBs avail and go for the some of the more questionable WR2 with WR1 upside later.

I put Dez in that category of WR's as well, Zak..and Harvin depending on what happens to him this offseason.

[Zak0221]

cbe_88, on 18 January 2013 - 01:58 PM, said:

I put Dez in that category of WR's as well, Zak..and Harvin depending on what happens to him this offseason.

Yea forgot about him, tho I think hes one more year of no "boneheadedness" and hes there forever.  These other guys have proven they are a professional.  With that said after those I just listed Dez should be the next WR picked, maybe even grab him before Roddy, as my list was not in order.

Edited by Zak0221, 18 January 2013 - 02:01 PM.

[cbe_88]

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 02:01 PM, said:

Yea forgot about him, tho I think hes one more year of no "boneheadedness" and hes there forever.  These other guys have proven they are a professional.  With that said after those I just listed Dez should be the next WR picked, maybe even grab him before Roddy, as my list was not in order.

Roddy will be a very interesting pick next year...He could be as high as an end of the 2nd round guy right after Julio, or his age might pull him down to the late 3rd or maybe even a heck of a 4th round bargain.

He's 32, which is an age I don't prefer any of my starters in fantasy to be, but the dude shows no signs of slowing down. I'd still probably take him next year, he could be serious value with the doubters on his age to continue his elite production. His rapport with Matty Ice you can't deny though. I'll take him in the 3rd probably every time.

[Whoopie!]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

Thats pretty easy to say yet drafting those guys are few and far between.  There arent alot , if any, elite WR's taking in the mid-late rds in fantasy drafts. When i say elite, im talking top-10 WR material.  Go look at your league,  mine is full of guys who were ALL drafted in the early rds.  Everyone loves sleepers/breakout guys but more often then not, those guys do crap. Randall Cobb comes to mind as 1 of the few sleepers who delivered.  And even so, 954 and 8 scores aren't jaw dropping #'s.

If you want premium/elite production from the WR spot, u better be drafting those guys early  a la Green/Marshall/D Thomas etc etc.  Omitting Calvin as he's top 5 everywhere.

The rb position is far deeper then WR next year,  in terms # of guys who will be high level producers.

I'm always taking 1 of those Elite WR's in the 1st couple rds.   Like taking an Ace in fantasy baseball.  Need 1 of those guys minimum.

Edited by Whoopie!, 18 January 2013 - 02:11 PM.

[fredth3cat]

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 01:47 PM, said:

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

There will also be backup RBs that you plug in during week 9 thatll give you a serviceable 12 pts...

Having two WRs that you can pencil in 10-15 pts a week is HUGE, the number of WRs that you for sure can count on for double digits a week is very slim compared to RB.  

If you miss out on CJ, AJ, Green, Julio, Roddy, DT, BMarsh then yes just snatch up all the RBs avail and go for the some of the more questionable WR2 with WR1 upside later.

The problem is that there are VERY few WRs that are actually that consistent.


Looking at Roddy's game log, I see six games that I consider disappointing (under eight points).

Andre had seven games of eight points or less.

Julio had six games of seven points or less.


I like Calvin, Green, Marshall, and DT as the elite, every-week WRs. I certainly want to grab one of them (or at least Dez or Julio), but after that, there just aren't WRs who are putting up consistent numbers.

[Whoopie!]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 01:47 PM, said:

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

There will also be backup RBs that you plug in during week 9 thatll give you a serviceable 12 pts...

Having two WRs that you can pencil in 10-15 pts a week is HUGE, the number of WRs that you for sure can count on for double digits a week is very slim compared to RB.  

If you miss out on CJ, AJ, Green, Julio, Roddy, DT, BMarsh then yes just snatch up all the RBs avail and go for the some of the more questionable WR2 with WR1 upside later.

The problem is that there are VERY few WRs that are actually that consistent.


Looking at Roddy's game log, I see six games that I consider disappointing (under eight points).

Andre had seven games of eight points or less.

Julio had six games of seven points or less.


I like Calvin, Green, Marshall, and DT as the elite, every-week WRs. I certainly want to grab one of them (or at least Dez or Julio), but after that, there just aren't WRs who are putting up consistent numbers.

You can say that for about 90% of all players.   U know J Charles had 6 games with less then 8 pts scored???  Lynch had 5 games with less then 10 pts scored.   Those guys ended up having monster years.

You're paying for overall production

Not every guy is putting 100+ and a score up week in week out.

But those WR's u mentioned might put up 30 the week after they posted 7 pts.   Would u rather have a guy who puts up 6 pts every week??

[fredth3cat]

Whoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

You can say that for about 90% of all players.   U know J Charles had 6 games with less then 8 pts scored???  Lynch had 5 games with less then 10 pts scored.   Those guys ended up having monster years.

You're paying for overall production

Not every guy is putting 100+ and a score up week in week out.

But those WR's u mentioned might put up 30 the week after they posted 7 pts.   Would u rather have a guy who puts up 6 pts every week??

That's exactly my argument for waiting on WRs next year, though. If nobody is consistent after the top 3-4 WRs, I'd rather spend my early picks on RBs and then take guys like Mike Wallace, James Jones, and T.Y. Hilton.

Edited by fredth3cat, 18 January 2013 - 03:09 PM.

[cbe_88]

Whoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

Zak0221, on 18 January 2013 - 01:47 PM, said:

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

Y'all are nuts. I'll take RBs with my first five picks if necessary. There will be many breakout WRs in the mid-late rounds.

There will also be backup RBs that you plug in during week 9 thatll give you a serviceable 12 pts...

Having two WRs that you can pencil in 10-15 pts a week is HUGE, the number of WRs that you for sure can count on for double digits a week is very slim compared to RB.  

If you miss out on CJ, AJ, Green, Julio, Roddy, DT, BMarsh then yes just snatch up all the RBs avail and go for the some of the more questionable WR2 with WR1 upside later.

The problem is that there are VERY few WRs that are actually that consistent.


Looking at Roddy's game log, I see six games that I consider disappointing (under eight points).

Andre had seven games of eight points or less.

Julio had six games of seven points or less.


I like Calvin, Green, Marshall, and DT as the elite, every-week WRs. I certainly want to grab one of them (or at least Dez or Julio), but after that, there just aren't WRs who are putting up consistent numbers.

You can say that for about 90% of all players.   U know J Charles had 6 games with less then 8 pts scored???  Lynch had 5 games with less then 10 pts scored.   Those guys ended up having monster years.

You're paying for overall production

Not every guy is putting 100+ and a score up week in week out.

But those WR's u mentioned might put up 30 the week after they posted 7 pts.   Would u rather have a guy who puts up 6 pts every week??

Truth is, there are about 8-9 RB's and WR's, equally, that are regarded as RB1/WR1 studs:

AP
Foster
Rice
Martin
Lynch
Spiller
T-Rich
McCoy
Charles

and just as well, these are the WR's that are regarded as WR1 studs:

Calvin
AJ Green
DT
B-Marsh
Julio
Dez
Roddy
Harvin (As long as he doesn't go to ARI)

This the cream of the crop, fairly put, when it comes to both of these positions. The difference is that all of the RB's listed will be going in the first round, boom, gone just like that. You pretty much only get one shot at only grabbing one of these stud RB's with your first round pick. McCoy might see the top of the first round, and even slimmer chance that T-Rich makes it to the very early second, but by and large, owners would not mind spending their first round pick on these 9 RB's.

The beauty of the cream of the crop WR's listed is that they will be more evenly dispersed taken at different points in the first 3 rounds. Therefore, you're giving yourself a lot better chance at benefiting more significantly when deciding to get 2 WR's in the first 3 rounds: if you do this you get two top-10 stud WR's. Where as if you commit to trying to 2 RB' in the first 3 rounds, you will merely be getting one top-10 RB, and the second RB you get will be a top-15-ish play for your early round pick.

I value the ability to be able to get two WR1 studs in the first 3 rounds, whereas if you commit to two RB's in the first 3 rounds, the second RB you take will have question marks on his value because after the first round the top-10 of the RB's are already gone. WR's aren't snatched up as quick giving you more ability to get two elite players at one position to load your roster multiple elite players.

Edited by cbe_88, 18 January 2013 - 03:15 PM.

[DocJ]

I used to drive myself nuts thinking about strategies but after this season I'm condensing it down into a simple formula:
3 players picked who are ranked in the top 3 at their position, QB/RB/WR in some combination or all in one position, it doesn't matter which combo it is. Will this be possible in every league? no, but what draft strategy ever is?

Some draft position scenarios:
Pick 1-4 ; here you would almost certainly have to go RB-WR-WR, or maybe RB-QB-WR, all the top tier QBs would be gone by your 2nd round pick. Going WR-WR or WR-RB to get Megatron wouldn't be smart because by your 2nd round pick other top 2 WR and RB would be gone.

Pick 5-8 ; here you could be handed a few different combos, most likely RB-WR-WR or RB-QB-WR.

Pick 9-12 ; picking in this range will probably leave you no choice but to go QB-WR-WR or if you league mates are going gun-ho on RB and QB you could even end up with WR-WR-WR if Megatron slips to you at pick 11-12.

The only wildcard here is how much you value Gronk and Graham. I don't think my strategy would work so well if you went for one of them in the first 2 rounds which is where they will go in most drafts. If one of them slips to the very early 3rd though and your draft position is 1-2 I think you nab them as a no-brainer pick.

Edited by DocJ, 18 January 2013 - 03:18 PM.

[fredth3cat]

Here's a "way-too-early 2013 mock", which at least gives us a very rough idea of how next year's draft might go:

http://sports.yahoo....-152751448.html

From the looks of it, if you don't grab a RB in the first two rounds, you better have some good sleepers in mind.


You guys who want to go WR-WR to start the draft -- what's your plan after that? You'll have to go with a Murray, Mathews, or DMC type as your RB1, and then what? There's hardly a RB worth drafting in rounds 4-8.

[Zak0221]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 03:09 PM, said:

Whoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

You can say that for about 90% of all players.   U know J Charles had 6 games with less then 8 pts scored???  Lynch had 5 games with less then 10 pts scored.   Those guys ended up having monster years.

You're paying for overall production

Not every guy is putting 100+ and a score up week in week out.

But those WR's u mentioned might put up 30 the week after they posted 7 pts.   Would u rather have a guy who puts up 6 pts every week??

That's exactly my argument for waiting on WRs next year, though. If nobody is consistent after the top 3-4 WRs, I'd rather spend my early picks on RBs and then take guys like Mike Wallace, James Jones, and T.Y. Hilton.

Thats what I alrdy stated, if you dont get one of those SUREFIRE top #1 WRs next year, might as well load up on RBs early and get like Gronk/Graham

Then get a bunch of WRs ranked 15-25 that you view have the most upside and who knows, maybe one of the big 8 WRs stinks and upside guy you grabbed is more studly than the obvious studs.

Alot of ways to draft, btw in terms of the 10-15 consistent points I was referring to a PPR set up as this is the way to go in terms of determining the value of WRs and RBs...

Though even in PPR the super studs most of the time got you around 10-15 consistently on their down weeks, thats who I want as my WR#1-2, my WR#3 I want the Torrey Smith , Desean Jacksons of the world who could win you a week if they go off, but arnt gonna lose you the week bc you arnt expecting more than 6-8 pts from them anyway.

Auctions are gonna be tough next year bc with all the new QBs itll be interesting to see what happens with the big three.  In my auction league, only Brees, Rodgers and Brady got over $70 ( $300 budget) while Foster cost around $65, most the top ten RBs at the time ranged from $45-60.  With QB so deep now it makes zero sense to spend more than $50 on my QB but everyone might be thinking of targeting the same "hot" names so when they finally get nominated, there will be 3-4 teams that played the "wait on QB" strat and a bidding war ensues tacking an extra $15-25 bucks no one was planning on paying.

If Colin Kaeps goes on to win the SB, I could easily see him going for around $40, but if Brees only cost $55 bucks, I would much rather have Brees as my QB1.  Gonna be tough though in the QB2 leagues you def gotta wait super late on that QB2 as there will be some BIG bargains for like $5-10 bucks.  I wasted $20 on Rivers last year thinking he was a steal and could give me $30-40 value.

[DocJ]

....or TRich, Ridley, Gore, Sproles etc. in the 3rd-5th. Fill in the later rounds with backups when tons of RBs get hurt during the season and you're done.

Edited by DocJ, 18 January 2013 - 03:28 PM.

[FML]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 03:20 PM, said:

You guys who want to go WR-WR to start the draft -- what's your plan after that? You'll have to go with a Murray, Mathews, or DMC type as your RB1, and then what? There's hardly a RB worth drafting in rounds 4-8.

Go after mid-tier guys. Bradshaw, SJAX and guys like that. Take lotto flyers on Wilson, James or some high-upside guys. TE is a craps-shoot after Gronk and Graham so I won't worry too much about that position. QBs would probably be Big Ben, Eli or something like that - not great but consistent week to week production.

[Whoopie!]

fredth3cat, on 18 January 2013 - 03:09 PM, said:

Whoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

You can say that for about 90% of all players.   U know J Charles had 6 games with less then 8 pts scored???  Lynch had 5 games with less then 10 pts scored.   Those guys ended up having monster years.

You're paying for overall production

Not every guy is putting 100+ and a score up week in week out.

But those WR's u mentioned might put up 30 the week after they posted 7 pts.   Would u rather have a guy who puts up 6 pts every week??

That's exactly my argument for waiting on WRs next year, though. If nobody is consistent after the top 3-4 WRs, I'd rather spend my early picks on RBs and then take guys like Mike Wallace, James Jones, and T.Y. Hilton.

Again, no player is putting up big pts at every position every single week.  Roddy White might be the most consistent producer outside of Megatron and he even had 5 games < 10 pts scored.

Consistency doesnt win championships.

Give me the guy who scores 30 one week,  6 the next over the guy putting up 8 pts every week.

And the list of WR's who put up 30+ pts in a given week is pretty short.

Edited by Whoopie!, 18 January 2013 - 03:38 PM.