54 replies to this topic

[TheFranchiseAce]

What do you guy think?  Continues his dominance or will his velocity dip be a problem?

Sat out some time with a bad back and didn't finish the season on the right foot because of "fatigue".

[mavsfan23]

not sure what happened in 2010/2011, but it looks like his 2012 is what should be expected(probably with some regression). his 2009 and 2012 seasons look very similar. last year he had the lowest BABIP of his career, but the second highest line drive%, seems he got very lucky last year. combine that with a declining K%, swinging strike%, and outside the zone swing% and it doesn't look promising. other than his rookie year, last year was the worst of his career looking at his peripherals, in my opinion. i'd stay away from him unless he falls way lower than anticipated.

most rankings have him around Hamels, Greinke, Gio, Wainwright, and Bumgarner. i'd rather have any of those guys over weaver.

[klove42]

I don't think he is a high upside guy because of not great K numbers, but I wouldnt mind him as my #3 starter, maybe a #2. He just seems to be able to be effective even if he doesnt strike a lot of people out or have a high fastball.

[RotoRaysfan]

Weaver was a 2010-11 undervalued pick because people thought he had the same skill set as his brother, Jeff, not realizing there was ace potential in his 3-pitch emerging skill set.     But, sadly, if the velo decline doesn't reverse (and I can't recall any time where it has without some sort of definitive treatment), then I'm concerned there's a physical issue for sure.  Loss of velo is always concerning for wear & tear, or worse yet, a hidden injury.  The reason why it's deadly for him - it reduces the gap between his FB & his change (which was just deadly in 2010-11), and his slider (his 3rd pitch).   And as Dan Haren showed, when you're at 87 or so on the gun, the  margin for error goes WAY down (as a reverse example, some of the few SP's to go up in velo the last 2 years - James Shields, also Doug Fister).

If he's really going in the tier that includes the like of Greinke, Bumgarner & Wainright...well, the undervalued label is now gone completely.  

[klove42]

I hate when I go to look up Weaver's stats in fangraphs, and by accident click on Jeff's stats. I look at them and get confused every single time. But I didn't realize how high Jered was ranked this year on sites like ESPN. He is their ninth best pitcher, and I just dont see him there. I thought you might be able to get him later this year, but if he is going as a number 1 fantasy starter then I will easily let him fall. Someone else can pay for the 20 wins last year and his 2010 and 2011 years. Those days are behind him.

[Slatykamora]

First, he has always had a fairly low BABIP...and remember Trout was in CF last year....241 is bound to go up...but it should not be too much. That really doesn't concern me.

The Decline in Velocity does, maybe if it just Plateaus off, it wont be soo bad, but if he keeps trending down. Then we could be in for something bad.

[mavsfan23]

Slatykamora, on 06 February 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

First, he has always had a fairly low BABIP...and remember Trout was in CF last year....241 is bound to go up...but it should not be too much. That really doesn't concern me.

The Decline in Velocity does, maybe if it just Plateaus off, it wont be soo bad, but if he keeps trending down. Then we could be in for something bad.

.241 BABIP is quite a ways below his career avg. yeah he had trout, but it's not like he had a bum in CF prior to trout. even if he somehow keeps his BABIP around .241(i would bet money he doesn't) the rest of his numbers are very concerning. finding an encouraging stat for him is difficult to do.

[Slatykamora]

mavsfan23, on 07 February 2013 - 03:08 PM, said:

Slatykamora, on 06 February 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

First, he has always had a fairly low BABIP...and remember Trout was in CF last year....241 is bound to go up...but it should not be too much. That really doesn't concern me.

The Decline in Velocity does, maybe if it just Plateaus off, it wont be soo bad, but if he keeps trending down. Then we could be in for something bad.

.241 BABIP is quite a ways below his career avg. yeah he had trout, but it's not like he had a bum in CF prior to trout. even if he somehow keeps his BABIP around .241(i would bet money he doesn't) the rest of his numbers are very concerning. finding an encouraging stat for him is difficult to do.

O I doubt it stays .241...but it will still be low..

It was .250 in 2011... Before that it was in the .270's... but that was a Hunter, Abreu, Rivera OF.
Trout and Bourjos are better than what Weaver was working with earlier in his career IMO. At least in terms of covering ground

Edited by Slatykamora, 07 February 2013 - 03:21 PM.

[Blood Brother]

Weav's been able to sustain such a low BABIP because he's been near the tops in the league as far as inducing pop-ups throughout his career.

[vornporn]

Anyone know what his velocity's looking like this spring?

[clutchcityfan]

One of these years, his ERA is going to match his FIP.  He won't be fun to own that season.

[blangtang]

got drilled today  -  

8ER in 2 IP, 0 Ks, 3 HR's given up

oh well its just practice!

[Chef Man]

blangtang, on 16 March 2013 - 04:13 PM, said:

got drilled today  -  

8ER in 2 IP, 0 Ks, 3 HR's given up

oh well its just practice!

Yikes!!

[det_tigers]

Worried about his K/9 decline in last 3 years?

9.36 to 7.57 to 6.79 last year.

I'm targeting him but low K's worries me.

[Zumayaaaa]

clutchcityfan, on 07 March 2013 - 08:25 PM, said:

One of these years, his ERA is going to match his FIP.  He won't be fun to own that season.

That will likely never happen as FIP has a hard on for GB % when its been proven that extreme FB pitchers can have just as much success. See Cain + Weaver as prime examples.

[Zumayaaaa]

This is my worry with Weaver, everyone is losing their minds in the Halladay and Haren threads but Weaver seems to be getting a pass.

His average fastball velocity during the last three seasons: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8 mph. His fastball averaged a soft-tosser-like 87.5 mph in the 2H of 2012. His swinging strike rate during the last three years: 11.2%, 9.1%, 8.5%.

[Jay85]

His value is falling in Mock Draft... I am not sure whats up with that. I am gonna pass him on regardless... Yesterday i did 2 mock and he fell to 6round i think..

[FearTheBeard]

I watched Weaver's start yesterday and here's a few things beyond the box score.

First, I think for someone to truly get Jared Weaver, you gotta understand baseball and watch him pitch. Every year he's a fly ball pitcher that out performs his peripheral numbers - and until last season after watching 10-12 of his starts I always said, I'm not touching that guy. The most important thing in Weaver's toolbox is deception - he's tall, rangy, 3/4 delivery, throwing so far across his body it's coming out of the 3rd base dugout, and commands a 4 seam/2 seam/cut fastballs, slider, and a changeup. Every pitch he throws has the EXACT same arm speed, from the EXACT same angle. He pretty much never throws a pitch the same speed twice, and always had hitters guessing wrong. And anyone familiar with Jared will tell you he's one hell of a nasty competitor.

So while velocity is declining - I'll get in to that more in a second. The dude has such an excellent understanding of pitching I don't see him falling off very far. Unlike a lot of guys that lost velocity - he never relied on it to be effective. He's always been the same guy - he keeps the ball off the barrel of the bat. He doesn't need to reinvent himself like others. Sure - he's not a 180+ K guy, and probably should have never been. And yea - when he's gonna have a bad day, it's gonna be really bad. But here's a few other things I really like - he pitches in the AL West, aside from a hot day in Arlington - nothing bothers me. The Rangers(weird to say), A's, M's, and Astros aren't frightening lineups. To go along with his fly balls he is a UNBELIEVABLE outfield with 2 of the games Top 5 defensive OF'ers in LF/CF with Trout and Bourjos, Hamilton in right is also very good.

So here's what I saw yesterday - a guy that didn't have his best stuff early on, never really found his slider, but still managed to battle through a tough lineup for 6IP. He found his groove during the 4th/5th/6th innings and absolutely toyed and ABUSED the Reds lineup, even earning a clap from Votto on his way back to the dugout. He had that lineup lost and guessing all game - just when they thought he throw a two seamer, he'd cut it on their hands, when they thought offspeed it wasn't, when they thought fast it was a perfectly commanded changeup. The only ball hit even somewhat well off Weaver all game was a Shin Soo-Choo double - other than that - pop outs, lazy fly balls, soft ground balls, and some K's.

Now here's the UGLY...While I don't think velocity is as important for Weaver as many others - especially former power pitcher, there's definitely obvious value. I'm fully convinced Weaver can sustain very good success averaging his almost 88mph on his variety of FB's like he did last season. But here's where my stomach turned - most FBs on the gun were 84-85. So I checked Brooks Baseball and here's the news - while he topped out at 88.9, his 4 seamer averaged 85.81, 2 seam was 86.11, and cutter was 85.49. OUCH...As an average that's a couple miles off of even last season. Sure - it was a cold day in Cincy, but that isn't encouraging.

While I think he absolutely will still be very good, I think coming off a solid start Vs a great lineup in a hitters park could be a good chance to get equal value as a sell. I wouldn't accept low on Weaver, but 85 isn't exciting me.

Wanted to add this:

http://www.brooksbas..._1/&prevDate=41

Edited by FearTheBeard, 02 April 2013 - 01:37 PM.

[JaNelson38]

Quality take, Fear the Beard.

I didnt really plan on taking Weaver, but he fell to me in the 4th round of my draft (40th pick), and I had already chosen David Price in the previous round as my ace.  I think at that point, Weaver provided excellent value as a #2 fantasy SP.  He's simply been too good for too long to pass up, and as you pointed out, with the division he's in he's gonna face some of the weakest lineups in the AL all season.

If you're not depending on a ton of K's, Weaver should be just fine.

[clutchcityfan]

Zumayaaaa, on 22 March 2013 - 08:50 AM, said:

clutchcityfan, on 07 March 2013 - 08:25 PM, said:

One of these years, his ERA is going to match his FIP.  He won't be fun to own that season.

That will likely never happen as FIP has a hard on for GB % when its been proven that extreme FB pitchers can have just as much success. See Cain + Weaver as prime examples.

There's also Clay Buchholz. I just get a little suspicious when peripherals seem out of whack. That said, Weaver consistently outperforms his already very good peripherals. I'm just more comfortable drafting other similarly ranked pitchers, particularly those who aren't experiencing declining velocities.