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Lance Berkman 2009


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#21 Gooch052

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Posted 30 April 2009 - 06:32 PM

Has anyone been watching him play? How's he look? Is he looking like he's still going through extended spring training because of the injury or does he still look hurt? I'm thinking about trying to make a deal for him but I wanted to check with the best (you guys) first.


May be wrong on this but I think I read where his BABIP is something ridiculous like .184. No I'm not talking about his avg (It's in the same ballpark) but his BABIP.

He also has more walks than K's and is on pace for 40 homers. Nothing more than a terrible start.
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#22 Smalls

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 09:29 AM

Are you guys targeting him as a quality buy low option, or at this point would you be comfortable with sticking it out with the Todd Helton/Casey Blake/Kendry Morales type guys?

#23 chip42180

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 10:08 AM

Just bought REAL low on him. Got him for Myers and Nyjer Morgan. I feel he'll turn it around very shortly and will be a top 1B for the rest of the season. I'd say this is about the bottom of the valley. Just my $0.02.

#24 Smalls

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 10:46 AM

Nice. Therein lies my problem... I'm not sure if I can buy him that low. But the buy low window will be open for only so long, so it'll definitely give me a thing or two to think about. Don't want to miss it!

#25 waly01

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 11:21 AM

That's ridiculously low - I think he's one of the biggest/most attainable/most interesting buy low candidates.

first - his attainability is going to much higher than any top 2 round pick mainly because of his complete decline in the 2nd half of last season. However, with that said - I also think that adds some real risk to getting him - players don't just start as hot as he did last year and then completly fizzle out. I think he had 7 hrs and 33 rbi after the break and hit around .265.

If he does rebound tho - he is one of the most pure/consistent hitters in all of baseball - even his worst years are still outrageously productive.

Ultimately, I took a chance on him and I got him for Aaron Hill and Adam Jones - both playing very well and will certainly keep some form of this production up but not at this level - I look at it as low risk low reward for me.

I do still worry about him and have my doubts but I think a lot of owners are scared right now given the 2nd half fizzle carry over to the start of this year.
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#26 WestCoastMets

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 01:38 PM

Ive been fielding options for Puma as I also have Morneau, Delgado, and Chris Davis (We play 1B, 3B, CI, 2 UTIL). I am looking for an OF or SP or and OF/SP combo specifically in return, but have only been getting super low offers.

Puma for Willie Taveras and Jair Jurrjens
Puma for Justin Upton
Puma for Brandon Inge
Puma for Bedard
Puma for Soto and Guthrie

Just sayin.
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#27 waly01

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Posted 01 May 2009 - 02:43 PM

Ive been fielding options for Puma as I also have Morneau, Delgado, and Chris Davis (We play 1B, 3B, CI, 2 UTIL). I am looking for an OF or SP or and OF/SP combo specifically in return, but have only been getting super low offers.

Puma for Willie Taveras and Jair Jurrjens
Puma for Justin Upton
Puma for Brandon Inge
Puma for Bedard
Puma for Soto and Guthrie

Just sayin.


Straight garbage - mayybe that bedard deal is fair tho- no point in selling while he's at his lowest - those same offers will be there in a month or two
123 team H2H $ Keeper League - .5 Point per Reception, No Kickers

QB - Tony Romo
RB1 - Jamaal Charles
RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
RB/WR/TE -Jahvid Best
TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


Bench - Felix Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Donovan Mcnabb, Kevin Smith

#28 JerryIsAlive

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Posted 07 May 2009 - 10:33 PM

WOW 0-5 with 4 K's tonight. Im sorry, this guy is being firmly entrenched on my bench until he gets it together. I keep being blinded by his 1 HR a week, and swayed to start him. NO MORE
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#29 waly01

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 12:50 PM

Ok so this is my first attempt at trying to put all the stats together. I've known about BaBIP for a while and don't totally relay on it but I've decided to try and determine what's bugging Lance Berkman.

I should also say that I wasn't sure what thread to put this in- the Berkman thread/the BABIP thread/possible new thread where people can post complete statistical anylsis on specific players so Mods - move where you feel it fits and sorry for the clutter

Anyway here we go.

So the first thing that poelpe will say about Berkman and his .184 avg is that BaBIP is also .174. For his career it's never been below .300 (except for his rookie season) - naturally you'd just say "Oh, way below his average, he's due for a hot streak...Buy Low" Instead of just accepting that, I want to look at what's really contributing to his low average.

The first thing I loooked at are his FB/GB/LD numbers. His LD% is about 14% which is down from last year where he hit about 18%(about the percentage for the last 5 years). In addition, his GB% is up to 44% from last years 42.5% (but he's had a year or two where it was over 44% for the season.) His FB% is up to 41.6% up from last years 39% (which is closer to his last 3-4 years except '06 when it was 41.8% for the season.) So to quickly summarize, his BaBIP should be lower becuase he's hitting less line drives and more GB/FB (esp FB which have the highest percentage of being turned into an out). One interesting thing to note is that his HR/FB% is up to 21.9% - way up from last years 16.6% but in the previous 3 years he had 20.5%, 24.6% and 19% so that explains why he is still hitting for power - doesn't seem like that something that he won't be able to maintain which tells me that power stroke is still there.

The low LD% was the biggest thing that stood out to me so - so I dig a little deeper into his contact rate and other plate discipine stats. The first thing that jumps at me when i see this is 1) his walk rate this year is 16.9% which is higher than his last 3 years of 15.5, 14.4 and 15.2. 2) his K rate is at CAREER highs at 26.2% compared to a lifetime average of about 20% with the highest ever being 22.3%

Very fishy - you'd think if he was striking out so much he would just not be seeing the ball well but then how is he walking more than he has the past 3 seasons? For more insight on that, we ned to look at his contact/swing percentages

Lance is swinging at 20.6% of balls outside the zone - down from last 2 years of 22.8 and 22.1% and he's actually making contact with pitches outside the zone at a 53.1% percent clip which is top 3 for his career. His overall contact percentage is down from 76.9% last year to 75.7 - down a little bit, but nothing glaring as he's had a 75.9% in '03 and last 2 years have been mid 76%. Here comes the interesting part - on pitches INSIDE the zone, he's swinging at 41.1% of them which is down from 46.9,46.5,46.6% over the past 3 seasons. (although interesting note, his 2nd, 3rd, 4th years where all around 41%) In addition, when he swings at pitches in the zone, his contact rate is down to 83.8% from career averages around 86% and up.

This tells me that he's almost tentative at the plate - when he gets pitches outside the zone and has to try and make contact he is still able to do so but he just don't seem to have a full grasp of the strike zone right now as he's taking to many pitches which are leading to him making worse contact and hitting more fly balls/ground balls over line drives. He's still a good enough hitter to be able to draw walks but most of his K's seem to be the looking variety as he's taking entirely to many pitches in the zone. He's still got the power stroke going wich could help while his average remains low

My final diagnosis: I'd buy Berkman - while i don't think his avg is low becuase of luck - I think it's slumping ability to recognize a strike - a guy with such a long track record of being a pure hitter will regain his command of the zone - it's not like his batspeed/power swing are slowing down as he's making contact on pitches outsides the zone at a higher rate - I think eventually he gets locked in and starts driving the ball.

Please feel free to add/comment as necessary
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RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
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TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


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#30 ciderjack6

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 01:06 PM

Question: How can you be able to buy low on this guy? Do any experienced/knowledgable players out there actually think he's done and are willing to give him away at a discount?

#31 waly01

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 01:18 PM

Question: How can you be able to buy low on this guy? Do any experienced/knowledgable players out there actually think he's done and are willing to give him away at a discount?


maybe not low - but lower
123 team H2H $ Keeper League - .5 Point per Reception, No Kickers

QB - Tony Romo
RB1 - Jamaal Charles
RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
RB/WR/TE -Jahvid Best
TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


Bench - Felix Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Donovan Mcnabb, Kevin Smith

#32 ciderjack6

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 02:00 PM

Question: How can you be able to buy low on this guy? Do any experienced/knowledgable players out there actually think he's done and are willing to give him away at a discount?



Edit: I shouldn't have said done. I should have said "Do any experienced/knowledgable players out there actually think he's going to have a down year and are willing to give him away at a discount?"

#33 cdg02001

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 02:07 PM

Edit: I shouldn't have said done. I should have said "Do any experienced/knowledgable players out there actually think he's going to have a down year and are willing to give him away at a discount?"

Well if you look at career stats you'd see that odd years are always a "down year" relative to the even years proceeding them, and his true value fluctuates between 2nd and 4th RD picks. But anyone looking to sell him for 5th RD or below value is cheating themselves. Just don't expect 08 or 06 numbers.

#34 cdg02001

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 02:10 PM

Ok so this is my first attempt at trying to put all the stats together. I've known about BaBIP for a while and don't totally relay on it but I've decided to try and determine what's bugging Lance Berkman.

I should also say that I wasn't sure what thread to put this in- the Berkman thread/the BABIP thread/possible new thread where people can post complete statistical anylsis on specific players so Mods - move where you feel it fits and sorry for the clutter

Anyway here we go.

So the first thing that poelpe will say about Berkman and his .184 avg is that BaBIP is also .174. For his career it's never been below .300 (except for his rookie season) - naturally you'd just say "Oh, way below his average, he's due for a hot streak...Buy Low" Instead of just accepting that, I want to look at what's really contributing to his low average.

The first thing I loooked at are his FB/GB/LD numbers. His LD% is about 14% which is down from last year where he hit about 18%(about the percentage for the last 5 years). In addition, his GB% is up to 44% from last years 42.5% (but he's had a year or two where it was over 44% for the season.) His FB% is up to 41.6% up from last years 39% (which is closer to his last 3-4 years except '06 when it was 41.8% for the season.) So to quickly summarize, his BaBIP should be lower becuase he's hitting less line drives and more GB/FB (esp FB which have the highest percentage of being turned into an out). One interesting thing to note is that his HR/FB% is up to 21.9% - way up from last years 16.6% but in the previous 3 years he had 20.5%, 24.6% and 19% so that explains why he is still hitting for power - doesn't seem like that something that he won't be able to maintain which tells me that power stroke is still there.

The low LD% was the biggest thing that stood out to me so - so I dig a little deeper into his contact rate and other plate discipine stats. The first thing that jumps at me when i see this is 1) his walk rate this year is 16.9% which is higher than his last 3 years of 15.5, 14.4 and 15.2. 2) his K rate is at CAREER highs at 26.2% compared to a lifetime average of about 20% with the highest ever being 22.3%

Very fishy - you'd think if he was striking out so much he would just not be seeing the ball well but then how is he walking more than he has the past 3 seasons? For more insight on that, we ned to look at his contact/swing percentages

Lance is swinging at 20.6% of balls outside the zone - down from last 2 years of 22.8 and 22.1% and he's actually making contact with pitches outside the zone at a 53.1% percent clip which is top 3 for his career. His overall contact percentage is down from 76.9% last year to 75.7 - down a little bit, but nothing glaring as he's had a 75.9% in '03 and last 2 years have been mid 76%. Here comes the interesting part - on pitches INSIDE the zone, he's swinging at 41.1% of them which is down from 46.9,46.5,46.6% over the past 3 seasons. (although interesting note, his 2nd, 3rd, 4th years where all around 41%) In addition, when he swings at pitches in the zone, his contact rate is down to 83.8% from career averages around 86% and up.

This tells me that he's almost tentative at the plate - when he gets pitches outside the zone and has to try and make contact he is still able to do so but he just don't seem to have a full grasp of the strike zone right now as he's taking to many pitches which are leading to him making worse contact and hitting more fly balls/ground balls over line drives. He's still a good enough hitter to be able to draw walks but most of his K's seem to be the looking variety as he's taking entirely to many pitches in the zone. He's still got the power stroke going wich could help while his average remains low

My final diagnosis: I'd buy Berkman - while i don't think his avg is low becuase of luck - I think it's slumping ability to recognize a strike - a guy with such a long track record of being a pure hitter will regain his command of the zone - it's not like his batspeed/power swing are slowing down as he's making contact on pitches outsides the zone at a higher rate - I think eventually he gets locked in and starts driving the ball.

Please feel free to add/comment as necessary

THIS is the kind of analysis that makes rotoworld so golden. Thanks for all that effort.

I like all your analysis, though I would add out that I doubt the 4% drop in LD rate is sufficient to completely explain the over .120 drop in BABIP. Most likely Lance is being tentative at the plate like you said AND suffering from bad luck.

Great analysis again.

#35 waly01

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 02:14 PM

Well if you look at career stats you'd see that odd years are always a "down year" relative to the even years proceeding them, and his true value fluctuates between 2nd and 4th RD picks. But anyone looking to sell him for 5th RD or below value is cheating themselves. Just don't expect 08 or 06 numbers.


Even on '07 when it was his big down year he hit .280 with 34 hrs 102 rbis and 95 runs - I'll take those as down year numbers all day

Plus I don't put any stock into that "odd year=off year" crap - that's just some anomoly as far as I can see unless someone can provide some kind of non-voodoo explanation for why it happens
123 team H2H $ Keeper League - .5 Point per Reception, No Kickers

QB - Tony Romo
RB1 - Jamaal Charles
RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
RB/WR/TE -Jahvid Best
TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


Bench - Felix Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Donovan Mcnabb, Kevin Smith

#36 waly01

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 02:18 PM

THIS is the kind of analysis that makes rotoworld so golden. Thanks for all that effort.

I like all your analysis, though I would add out that I doubt the 4% drop in LD rate is sufficient to completely explain the over .120 drop in BABIP. Most likely Lance is being tentative at the plate like you said AND suffering from bad luck.

Great analysis again.


Yea but I don't think it's all luck - I watch a lot of his games and he doesn't really make good contact. He looks out of it. It's not a case of getting robbed over and over (although it does happen here and there) Conversely, I watch someone like Carlos Quentin who is literally lacing frozen ropes RIGHT AT people and having guys make webgem type defensive plays against him - he's someone getting unlucky. Berkman is not making that kind of contact - when he does connect it's always the "oooh he just missed that one" variety and it's resulting in lazy fly balls or rolling over pitches as he tries to pull stuff over the outside of the plate. I just don't think the luck factor has as much to do with it - I firmly believe when u see that LD% and Swing% going up - you'll start to see his average/BaBIP climb along with it.

Edited by waly01, 08 May 2009 - 02:25 PM.

123 team H2H $ Keeper League - .5 Point per Reception, No Kickers

QB - Tony Romo
RB1 - Jamaal Charles
RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
RB/WR/TE -Jahvid Best
TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


Bench - Felix Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Donovan Mcnabb, Kevin Smith

#37 cdg02001

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 08:00 PM

Why's he benched?

#38 waly01

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Posted 09 May 2009 - 12:45 AM

Sore wrist - any one with info?
123 team H2H $ Keeper League - .5 Point per Reception, No Kickers

QB - Tony Romo
RB1 - Jamaal Charles
RB2 - Brandon Jacobs
WR1 - Randy Moss
WR/TE - Miles Austin
RB/WR/TE -Jahvid Best
TE - Chris Cooley
Def - Ravens


Bench - Felix Jones, Jericho Cotchery, Leon Washington, Donovan Mcnabb, Kevin Smith

#39 mossman520

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Posted 09 May 2009 - 03:10 AM

Berkman was a late scratch Friday against the Padres due to a sore left wrist, the Associated Press reports.

Recommendation: The Astros didn't say whether the wrist soreness has been a problem all season, which could help explain Berkman's .184 average. Darin Erstad replaced him in the lineup.
(Rotowire.com)

Check 2m at the daily notes and see if he will be available. He might be hurt for a couple of days. The rest could do his wrist some good. But he was finally heating up. So far the biggest bust in the early rounds.
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#40 mossman520

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Posted 09 May 2009 - 01:07 PM

Is he playing today...does anyone have any local news about it?? Day to day means one day or a couple days off.
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