Hall of Fame Candidates?, Is Vlad a candidate? Others? Options

[Code of Hammurab...]

Vlad for the HOF? Thoughts? Career stats are linked

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5737/c...9thbL8yQjSFCLcF

Reason for edit: Since more players being discussed, title changed to HOF candidates...

[DL80]

Thoughts? Career stats are linked

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5737/c...9thbL8yQjSFCLcF

Great discussion. He's definitely going to be a Hall of Famer, even if he only plays a few more years. He's got 398 HR, a .322 career average, a .958 career slugging, and a reputation (somewhat undeserved) as being a good defensive outfielder because he has a great arm. He's already at 2172 career hits. He's got one MVP and has been in the top four a total of four times. So if he goes another few years, gets to 450 HR and 2500+ hits without dropping his average noticeably, he's a shoo-in for first ballot, in my opinion (both that he should get it and he will get it).

Now, if he were to retire tomorrow or if his injuries are so bad that he has a Jim Rice-style dropoff, I still think he's in but maybe not first ballot. A lot of this is predicated on his never being seriously accused of steroids. If he is, all bets are off and anything could happen.

The problem is that, depending on when he retires, there may be a lot of competition. All of the following guys are in their mid- to late 30s and are all getting in, in my opinion: Griffey, Vizquel, Chipper, Pudge, Delgado, Thome, Manny, Jeter, Sheffield (I think), Ichiro, Helton, Edmonds. They are almost all slightly older than Vlad, but if Vlad's body falls apart and he retires in the next 2-3 years, he's up against a lot of guys. I still think he gets in easily and first ballot, because I'd put him ahead of all those guys except Griffey, Jeter, Manny, and Pudge, but not sure if the voters will see it the same way.

[thenatural]

He may be a hall of famer, but he's not getting to 450 homers (as you said, he's at 398 now). Vlad is finished. He's not the same hitter anymore (obvious) and I see many more injuries in his future.

[Code of Hammurab...]

Im not sure delgado get in.

Great discussion. He's definitely going to be a Hall of Famer, even if he only plays a few more years. He's got 398 HR, a .322 career average, a .958 career slugging, and a reputation (somewhat undeserved) as being a good defensive outfielder because he has a great arm. He's already at 2172 career hits. He's got one MVP and has been in the top four a total of four times. So if he goes another few years, gets to 450 HR and 2500+ hits without dropping his average noticeably, he's a shoo-in for first ballot, in my opinion (both that he should get it and he will get it).

Now, if he were to retire tomorrow or if his injuries are so bad that he has a Jim Rice-style dropoff, I still think he's in but maybe not first ballot. A lot of this is predicated on his never being seriously accused of steroids. If he is, all bets are off and anything could happen.

The problem is that, depending on when he retires, there may be a lot of competition. All of the following guys are in their mid- to late 30s and are all getting in, in my opinion: Griffey, Vizquel, Chipper, Pudge, Delgado, Thome, Manny, Jeter, Sheffield (I think), Ichiro, Helton, Edmonds. They are almost all slightly older than Vlad, but if Vlad's body falls apart and he retires in the next 2-3 years, he's up against a lot of guys. I still think he gets in easily and first ballot, because I'd put him ahead of all those guys except Griffey, Jeter, Manny, and Pudge, but not sure if the voters will see it the same way.

[2Balls]

He may not get in because the HOF voters would rather have a guy be pretty good for 22 years and pile up hits than dominant and one of the best hitters in the game for 11 or 12 years.

[sdbolt85]

Vlad better be a 1st ballot HOF'er. There is no excuse if he's not. Here are the most similiar players to Vlad by age year-by-year according to Baseball Reference:

23 - Willie Mays
24 - Manny Ramirez
25 - Willie Mays
26 - Willie Mays
27 - Willie Mays
28 - Manny Ramirez
29 - Willie Mays
30 - Manny Ramirez
31 - Manny Ramirez
32 - Duke Snider
33 - Duke Snider

- On pace to be only the 6th player in history to finish his career with 400+ HR and .320+ BA (Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, and Jimmie Foxx are the others)

- No player in MLB history has ever finished his career with the following:

350+ HR, 140 OPS+, 150+ SB, .315+ BA

Vlad is currently sitting at:

393 HR, 146 OPS+, 175 SB, .322 BA

Vlad will go down as one of the most unique blends of power, speed, and batting average the game has ever seen.

[Garrett W.]

Zero question. And for some reason, I don't see the HOF voters really shunning him considering he was a "clean" player who dominated in the steroid era (I put clean like that since we don't really know who was anymore, but he hasn't been named).

[RAEF715]

Vlad better be a 1st ballot HOF'er. There is no excuse if he's not. Here are the most similiar players to Vlad by age year-by-year according to Baseball Reference:

23 - Willie Mays
24 - Manny Ramirez
25 - Willie Mays
26 - Willie Mays
27 - Willie Mays
28 - Manny Ramirez
29 - Willie Mays
30 - Manny Ramirez
31 - Manny Ramirez
32 - Duke Snider
33 - Duke Snider

- On pace to be only the 6th player in history to finish his career with 400+ HR and .320+ BA (Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, and Jimmie Foxx are the others)

- No player in MLB history has ever finished his career with the following:

350+ HR, 140 OPS+, 150+ SB, .315+ BA

Vlad is currently sitting at:

393 HR, 146 OPS+, 175 SB, .322 BA

Vlad will go down as one of the most unique blends of power, speed, and batting average the game has ever seen.

agree with you.... vlad definitely deserves the hall, but would nice to see him have a couple solid years yet to finish it off...

time sure flies...seems like yesterday i saw him flying around the outfield and basepaths for the harrisburg senators...

[DL80]

Im not sure delgado get in.

You may be right that he doesn't get in first ballot, but I think he gets in well before his 15 years are up. He has a .280 career batting average and is almost to 500 home runs, and hasn't been outed as a steroid user (yet). The lack of All Star appearances really hurts him, though, and is frankly pretty shocking to me. He's only made 2 All Star teams?! Wow. I think he'll get in, but maybe not first ballot.

I like to think of Hall of Fame voting thusly: I play in a dynasty replay baseball league using Diamond Mind simulation software. We have 35 man rosters and 25 man active (until the last month). Defense, speed, basestealing, pitching all matter, just like in real baseball. Essentially, when comparing players, I imagine their careers all thrown into a draft at once. Then I think who would I take first (or second or third)? So when you look at Delgado's career and you see what you'll get for the next 17+ seasons, he may not be that high up for first basemen. Certainly ahead of McGwire. Probably behind Thome and Bagwell (though just barely behind Bags). Behind Thomas, even though Delgado was more consistent, because Thomas would give your team a phenomenal 12 or so years. Probably ahead of Palmeiro even before I would downgrade Palmeiro for steroids. Hmm...maybe you are right about Delgado. 4th or 5th best first basemen of his era, at best, doesn't seem like such an obvious vote now.

[SmartassBoiler]

Griffey, Vizquel, Chipper, Pudge, Delgado, Thome, Manny, Jeter, Sheffield (I think), Ichiro, Helton, Edmonds

Now this is just my opinion, but I believe the guys that were truly dominant (one of the best at their position) for at least a few years are the ones that are shoo-ins. Griffey, Pudge, Thome, Manny, and Jeter immediately pop out on that list. Vizquel has longevity and one of the great gloves at SS, so he should get in at some point. Chipper, Delgado, Sheffield, Helton, and to a lesser extent Edmonds were all very good ballplayers, but there's something about each of those guys that doesn't scream HOF out at me. Chipper is probably the best player on that list, though.

Ichiro still has some playing to do, but it's really hard to ignore his lofty batting averages, excellent speed, and outstanding defense.

[SmartassBoiler]

Vladdy, to me, had a dominant stretch and is a shoo-in in my mind.

[iknowmorethanyou]

Depends if any roid allegations pop up, he could easily be on that list of names that will eventually leak out. But hopefully he was not as he was a beast to watch when he was with the Expos. He should be a hall of famer, the stats are great. Can he still go into the Hall as an Expo considering the franchise doesn't exist anymore, or would it automatically revert to the Nationals? I don't want him going in as an Angel, after his first few years there his stats kind of dwindled down.

[Code of Hammurab...]

Chipper is lock imo, not so sure about the others in that subgroup........

Now this is just my opinion, but I believe the guys that were truly dominant (one of the best at their position) for at least a few years are the ones that are shoo-ins. Griffey, Pudge, Thome, Manny, and Jeter immediately pop out on that list. Vizquel has longevity and one of the great gloves at SS, so he should get in at some point. Chipper, Delgado, Sheffield, Helton, and to a lesser extent Edmonds were all very good ballplayers, but there's something about each of those guys that doesn't scream HOF out at me. Chipper is probably the best player on that list, though.

Ichiro still has some playing to do, but it's really hard to ignore his lofty batting averages, excellent speed, and outstanding defense.

[jeckll]

Now this is just my opinion, but I believe the guys that were truly dominant (one of the best at their position) for at least a few years are the ones that are shoo-ins. Griffey, Pudge, Thome, Manny, and Jeter immediately pop out on that list. Vizquel has longevity and one of the great gloves at SS, so he should get in at some point. Chipper, Delgado, Sheffield, Helton, and to a lesser extent Edmonds were all very good ballplayers, but there's something about each of those guys that doesn't scream HOF out at me. Chipper is probably the best player on that list, though.

Ichiro still has some playing to do, but it's really hard to ignore his lofty batting averages, excellent speed, and outstanding defense.

Chipper is a mortal lock.
One of the best switch hitters of all time, average and power.
5+ All Star appearances
1 MVP
a Batting Title
a WS ring
And he was an integral part of one of the best dynasties in MLB history...he's a sure fire first ballot HOFer

[NapPYdugout]

what bothers me most is that dale murphy and the crime dog aren't in..well deserved..

[kidtwentytwo]

Vladi could be in...but he's either going to have to retire or have a few more decent years. If he plays for 6 more years and plays like garbage, that is what people will remember.

[Splendid61]

Consecutive seasons hitting 25+ HR while batting .300+

Vladimir Guerrero (11) - active streak
Lou Gehrig+ (11)
Albert Pujols (8) - active streak
Babe Ruth+ (8)
Willie Mays+ (7)
Mike Piazza (7)
Todd Helton (7)
Manny Ramirez (6)
Ted Williams+ (6)
Chipper Jones (6)
Joe DiMaggio+ (6)

Sad to see Vlad's streak go down in flames this season. But that list really shows why he's one of the top 25 players of all time, and therefore a shoo-in for the HOF.

In 2003, Vlad missed 2 full months (June/July - the middle of the season no less) with a herniated disk in his back and still pounded out 25 HR, 17 of which were hit in 218 post-ASB AB's after he returned from injury.

[RotoMaster]

Consecutive seasons hitting 25+ HR while batting .300+

Vladimir Guerrero (11) - active streak
Lou Gehrig+ (11)
Albert Pujols (8) - active streak
Babe Ruth+ (8)
Willie Mays+ (7)
Mike Piazza (7)
Todd Helton (7)
Manny Ramirez (6)
Ted Williams+ (6)
Chipper Jones (6)
Joe DiMaggio+ (6)

Sad to see Vlad's streak go down in flames this season. But that list really shows why he's one of the top 25 players of all time, and therefore a shoo-in for the HOF.

In 2003, Vlad missed 2 full months (June/July - the middle of the season no less) with a herniated disk in his back and still pounded out 25 HR, 17 of which were hit in 218 post-ASB AB's after he returned from injury.

Hey we all love Vlad, but cmon now. He's not close to the top 25 of all time.

[DL80]

what bothers me most is that dale murphy and the crime dog aren't in..well deserved..

McGriff is a great test case I think. He is basically Palmeiro without the steroids (though Palmeiro was a little better, steroids may have at least helped him stay healthy if not added power). He was very good for a long time. He did lead the league in home runs twice and made 5 All Star teams. The career .888 OPS isn't as high as I would like, but I think he gets bonus points for (presumably) being clean. The worst thing about the steroid era is that it made 40 or even 50+ home runs seem routine. Granted, there are a few swing-from-their-heels guys out there that could legitimately hit 50 without steroids (Howard, Ortiz, Thome, and P. Fielder). And Griffey, Arod, and Pujols are just some of the best power hitters ever (regardless of whether they used steroids). Even Bonds, with steroids, only hit more than 50 one year. While a lot of that is due to being walked 200 times a year, I think that balances out the added power he got from HGH/steroids. But Andruw Jones hit 51? Really? Luis Gonzalez hit 57! Brady Anderson hit 50. Sosa hit 50+ 4 times! Forty-one times a guy hit 50 or more home runs in the 130+ year history of professional baseball. Twenty-three of those times have come in the 15 years since the 1994 strike. That's 56% of the 50+ home run seasons coming in about 12% of the entire history of baseball. Wow.

For that reason, I think McGriff's 9 years of 30+ home runs are more impressive (assuming he was clean). I think I might vote for McGriff only in a year when there was very little competition on the ballot, especially at first base. Ironically, that could be in the next couple years, when he really only has to go up against Bagwell. McGwire's no competition any more. Palmeiro is probably not getting voted in for a while, if at all (though I actually would rate him about the same as McGriff, after downgrading his numbers a bit for the steroids).

Vizquel gets in on the Ozzie Smith rule. Vizquel wasn't quite as good a fielder as Ozzie, but he was a better hitter. I forgot Robbie Alomar as well, who I also think is a shoo-in. Jeff Kent also. I'm sure there are lots more guys that I'm forgetting. Piazza.

[DL80]

what bothers me most is that dale murphy and the crime dog aren't in..well deserved..

Sorry for the double post, but I forgot to discuss Murphy. I think he is, at best, a fringe Hall of Famer (like McGriff and Palmeiro) because A) his batting average was...well...average. Career .265 vs. 260 for the league. He had a 6-year stretch from 1982 to 1987 where 5 of those years were markedly above average. But the rest of his career is pretty meh. If Don Mattingly doesn't get in, how does Murphy? His 2 MVPs, 5 Gold Gloves, and 7 All Star appearances might be enough to push him over the top IMO, but just barely.