How would you rate my prospects?, AL Only Options

[deraj1981]

Should I keep them all or cut any? What do think there projections will be?

Jesus Montero
Justin Smoak
Tim Beckham
Aaron Hicks
Chuck Lofgren
Joshua Fields

I am thinking about draft these players: (I have the 4th and 10 overall picks) When do you think they will be in the show?

Jason Donald
Scott Sizemore
Brett Wallace
Aaron Crowe
Josh Bell

[andrew]

actual projections are difficult to make as there are a ton of different variables. you have to take into account both current skills and the projectability of a player's tools. neither concrete stats nor physical tools are very reliable projectors of what someone will actually do in the major leagues. sites such as minorleagueball.com (especially their fanposts section) and projectprospect.com come out with rankings from time to time if you don't want to spend the time researching for yourself.

i'd also suggest going to baseballamerica.com and looking at their all-time top 100s. this will give you an idea of the rate of attrition for top prospects.

on to the analysis:

montero is one of best hitting prospects in the minors, pure and simple. if he sticks at catcher, he could turn into one of the handful of most valuable players in your league. it's much more likely he gets moved to DH (since teixeira is at 1B for the foreseeable future). even as a DH, though, his bat has the potential to make him a very, very valuable player.

smoak is also a very highly regarded prospect. the comparison that is generally given for smoak's upside is that of a mark teixeira type switch-hitting 1B.

Beckham is generally viewed as extremely talented (he was the #1 overall pick). personally, i think he's overvalued by most people right now, as his SB potential has probably been overstated, and he's only got decent power potential. people are starting to raise questions over whether he can stick at SS. if he doesn't, it'll be a huge hit to his value.

Hicks is extremely toolsy, though he's also very far away. he's shown great plate discipline for someone so young, but otherwise he has a long ways to go to turn his raw tools into fantasy-relevant skills. his upside is generally viewed as a 20/20 player with potential for 30/30. since he's so far away, though, there's a high chance of flaming out. if he does flame out as a hitter, though, there's always the potential he recoups some of his value by trying to pitch. he was clocked as high as 97 or 98 in high school

lofgren isn't all that great of a prospect. he doesn't profile as much more than a back of the rotation guy.

josh fields (i'm assuming this is the mariners' guy) has the upside of a potential closer. he's got power stuff, but needs to refine his control. i may be mistaken, but i believe he's had some injury concerns as well.

donald had a bad year this year iirc (injuries?). donald could have some value as a 2B (which is probably his long-term position). he's not a bad guy to take a flier on, but he shouldn't be too highly valued, either.

sizemore can do a little bit of everything. he's currently got a broken ankle, so i'd downgrade him just a slight bit.

wallace looks to be a good hitter capable of hitting something like .290 with 25 bombs. keep in mind that there's a fair chance he gets moved to 1B (chris carter would get moved to OF probably) as he's viewed as a very bad defensive 3B.

crow has a great arm, but i don't remember much else about him other than him not signing last year.

even has a switch-hitter, bell shows extreme platoon splits. i'd expect him to focus on just hitting LH in the future, which ironically could help his splits. if he can conquer his platoon splits, bell has a good amount of power potential with some ability to hit for average.

[andrew]

if there's no penalty to keeping them, why not keep them?

wallace, crow, and bell are clearly more highly regarded than the other two.

i'd recommend doing a lot more research

[Rush2112]

Jesus Montero i'd keep. Isn't he the Yankees future Starting Catcher for when Posada retires.

[deraj1981]

if there's no penalty to keeping them, why not keep them?

wallace, crow, and bell are clearly more highly regarded than the other two.

i'd recommend doing a lot more research

We are only allowed to keep 7 minor leaguers. I am thinking of waiving lofgren.

[osubmoc]

Waive Lofgren

Target Wallace, Crowe, Bell, Sizemore, Donald in that order. If you have the 4th pick I'd assume that Wallace will be gone by the time your pick comes. Who else is available?

[andrew]

Jesus Montero i'd keep. Isn't he the Yankees future Starting Catcher for when Posada retires.

it's possible, but he's got a long ways to go to not be a huge defensive liability. Most scouts and observers feel pretty certain he'll end up as a DH, since the Yankees already have Teixeira at 1B.

[andrew]

it'd help if you made a more comprehensive list of who the available prospects are.

As is, you haven't posted enough prospects to even get to your 10th pick.

[deraj1981]

it'd help if you made a more comprehensive list of who the available prospects are.

As is, you haven't posted enough prospects to even get to your 10th pick.

Here is the top 10 players that I think will be drafted in my league:
1. Dustin Ackley
2. Brett Wallace
3. Matthew Hobgood
4. Danyan Vicedo
5. Grant Green
6. Jason Donald
7. Josh Bell
8. Aaron Crowe
9. David Cooper
10. Scott Sizemore

[andrew]

are released players put back into the draft-eligible pool?

hobgood doesn't deserve to be mentioned along with some of these other guys. neither does cooper.

again, i'd suggest more research into comprehensive player rankings that will give you a better idea both of who does and doesn't belong, and where you should draft them. the size and rules of your league also are important, since the shallower the league, the less value high-ceiling, low-floor guys have and vice versa.

[Rush2112]

it's possible, but he's got a long ways to go to not be a huge defensive liability. Most scouts and observers feel pretty certain he'll end up as a DH, since the Yankees already have Teixeira at 1B.

True, but he would be one of the players i'd keep for sure. He very well could be the DH when Matsui leaves after this year. Or damon both are FA's but i see Johnny sticking around. and Yanks going after another bat maybe.

[andrew]

True, but he would be one of the players i'd keep for sure. He very well could be the DH when Matsui leaves after this year. Or damon both are FA's but i see Johnny sticking around. and Yanks going after another bat maybe.

yeah. no question you keep him. he's pretty much universally regarded as a top 10 MLB prospect. not someone you cut

[osubmoc]

With the 4th and 10th picks I'd be happy nabbing Josh Bell or Grant Green at 4 and Jacob Turner at 10. Turner is considered one of the Tigers top 2 prospects already.

[deraj1981]

are released players put back into the draft-eligible pool?

hobgood doesn't deserve to be mentioned along with some of these other guys. neither does cooper.

again, i'd suggest more research into comprehensive player rankings that will give you a better idea both of who does and doesn't belong, and where you should draft them. the size and rules of your league also are important, since the shallower the league, the less value high-ceiling, low-floor guys have and vice versa.

Players can not have more then 50 MLB A.B. or 50 innings pitched in the majors.
Another prospect would be Grant Desme to be in the top 10.

[andrew]

opinions on desme diverge a bit.

pros:
simply awesome production
this was really his rookie season after being injured beforehand
AFL production has been insane, though again, it's occurring in a hitter's paradise.

cons:
played in CAL league
struck out a ton
ARL
speed probably won't play as well at higher levels

[Rush2112]

yeah. no question you keep him. he's pretty much universally regarded as a top 10 MLB prospect. not someone you cut

Have to agree with that too