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#1 Waiver Claim: Who is Worthy?For those with high waiver positions


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#1 amcsoldier

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:03 PM

Two weeks in the books now, and no clear "must have" waiver wire addition. (Brandon Jackson maybe?)

There's a lot of value in holding that #1 waiver slot, but it comes at a cost. While you're holding fast, the rest of the league is gobbling up players. In the end, there's a risk of losing out on this year's waiver wire wonder because you didn't deem him worthy of your #1 spot.

Case in point: I was able to get Miles Austin and Mike Sims-Walker off waivers last year, with middle-of-pack waiver positions. Had I owned the #1 spot, I can't say I would have spent it on either guy. I won my league last year based on pickups like those.

And furthermore, just because a "big name" player goes down, it does not  therefore mean that his replacement will produce at the same level.  This seems like an obvious point, but at the same time, the fantasy  community jumps at guys like Brandon Jackson and the like, often with  little to show for it after the fact.

So, as we approach week 3, I pose the following for discussion: how long do we hold high waiver positions? Do we just break the seal and start spending now? Or do we hold out for a few more weeks, in case this year's Austin pops up? If we do hold, then for how long?

I might just go ahead and spend my #1 spot this week... on an IDP no less. Fantasy seasons are won and lost on the waiver wire (at least in my 14-team IDP keeper league), and I've been sitting out for two weeks.

I yield the floor.
16-Team 14-Keeper League

C: E. Gattis
1B: G. Jones
2B: D. Pedroia
SS: E. Aybar
3B: B. Lawrie
OF: G. Stanton
OF: A. Jackson
OF: J. Bruce
UTIL: J. Ellsbury
SP: C. Kershaw, J. Cueto, Z. Greinke, S. Kazmir, J. Verlander, A. Burnett, Z. A. Simon (RP)
Bench: M. Trumbo, M. Estrada, M. Moore, M. Latos
Prospects: C. Correa

#2 De Novo

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:27 PM

Whether you hold the spot depends on the number of teams in your league, the # of bench spots available, the quality of your players, and what bye weeks are coming up for you.

#3 Sherlock

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:35 PM

I'm using my number 3 on Josh Freeman.

14 teams means QB options are thin; no plan B if Cutler goes down since Kolb is now a bust; Freeman is playing solid.
16 Team/ 9 Cat/ 4 UTIL/30 max moves

G: Conley | Teague | Collison | Korver | Hayward | Kendall
F: P. George | T. Jones | Millsap | Antetokounmpo | James Johnson
C: Splitter | Henson | Hill | Markeiff

#4 uri_76

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:35 PM

I really can't decide whether or not to use my #1 on michael bush.  12 team ppr.  The waiver is very valuable, but I'm 0-2 and getting ancy

#5 semo

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:42 PM

Well I am in 2 leagues and we are a rotating waiver as well.  I had # 1 last week on both (meaning I drafted last on draft day) and opted to burn only one leagues #1 pick on Brandon Jackson.  I feel I have to spend the other # 1 on Denver's Thomas just on pure talent and upside while I am not even needy @ WR as I have R. Moss, Calvin, Knox, M.Williams(tampa) and Santonio.  

I actually stress too much when having the #1 spot as I am afraid to waste it, so I would rather burn it so I can take more swings via the waiver like you said with those middle waiver priority selections.

#6 amcsoldier

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 08:52 PM

View Postsemo, on Sep 21 2010, 09:42 PM, said:

I actually stress too much when having the #1 spot as I am afraid to waste it, so I would rather burn it so I can take more swings via the waiver like you said with those middle waiver priority selections.

Exactly - that's the difficulty of having the top spot. You end up overvaluing it, and missing out.
16-Team 14-Keeper League

C: E. Gattis
1B: G. Jones
2B: D. Pedroia
SS: E. Aybar
3B: B. Lawrie
OF: G. Stanton
OF: A. Jackson
OF: J. Bruce
UTIL: J. Ellsbury
SP: C. Kershaw, J. Cueto, Z. Greinke, S. Kazmir, J. Verlander, A. Burnett, Z. A. Simon (RP)
Bench: M. Trumbo, M. Estrada, M. Moore, M. Latos
Prospects: C. Correa

#7 theSPANKER

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 09:10 PM

Overvaluing?  Not always sure about that.  What you guys are forgetting is the #1 Wavier can serve as a double benefit.  Not only does it give you the right #1 right to a free agent, it can serve to aquire a good player another owner gave up on who could bounce back and be valuable down the stretch.
12-man 1pt PPR redraft league, start 2 RB/2WRs with 1 RB/WR/TE Flex All TDs 6pts, 15 Man Roster

QBs - Stafford
RBs - Andre Brown, Jennings, Vereen, Sproles, Ray Rice
WRs - Dez Bryant, Desean Jackson, Allen, Bokin
TE - Reed, Walker
K - Vinatieri
Panthers, Texans D

#8 Sherlock

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 09:12 PM

View Postsemo, on Sep 21 2010, 08:42 PM, said:

I actually stress too much when having the #1 spot as I am afraid to waste it, so I would rather burn it so I can take more swings via the waiver like you said with those middle waiver priority selections.

This is so true.
16 Team/ 9 Cat/ 4 UTIL/30 max moves

G: Conley | Teague | Collison | Korver | Hayward | Kendall
F: P. George | T. Jones | Millsap | Antetokounmpo | James Johnson
C: Splitter | Henson | Hill | Markeiff

#9 red_sox_fan

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 09:22 PM

It depends on the size of your bench and league.  In leagues with a small bench, I burn the wavier right away because I'm always picking/dropping guys.  I can't afford to wait until after waivers have passed because I would have missed all of the good players.  

In leagues that have a large bench, most likely there aren't that many players to pick up or drop so I tend to hold onto the higher pick and hold out for a very good player.  One year I did that and ended up not using the wavier pick all year, but I had a deep enough bench that it didn't matter.

#10 SuperJoint

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 09:25 PM

This wk there are no clear options worthy of a #1 like BJax was last wk.

Vick IMO would be worth a #1 if you need QB help.

DThomas from DEN is borderline worth it if your WRs are shaky.

Other than those 2 - which are situation-specific - I doubt it's worth it to burn a priority this wk.

#11 amcsoldier

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 09:33 PM

View PosttheSPANKER, on Sep 21 2010, 10:10 PM, said:

Overvaluing?  Not always sure about that.  What you guys are forgetting is the #1 Wavier can serve as a double benefit.  Not only does it give you the right #1 right to a free agent, it can serve to aquire a good player another owner gave up on who could bounce back and be valuable down the stretch.

Sure, that's how it works in theory. But I think your point assumes perfect knowledge - knowing who is going to be a player worth picking up, and successfully using the top slot on the top player. In reality, good waiver adds are the result of educated guesswork - taking a small sample size and rolling the dice with it. Holding onto the #1 spot means you're not busy rolling the dice. Meanwhile others in your league are rolling left and right, snatching up the free agent lotto tickets.

I think having the #1 spot is overrated. I'm waiting one more week, then blowing it.
16-Team 14-Keeper League

C: E. Gattis
1B: G. Jones
2B: D. Pedroia
SS: E. Aybar
3B: B. Lawrie
OF: G. Stanton
OF: A. Jackson
OF: J. Bruce
UTIL: J. Ellsbury
SP: C. Kershaw, J. Cueto, Z. Greinke, S. Kazmir, J. Verlander, A. Burnett, Z. A. Simon (RP)
Bench: M. Trumbo, M. Estrada, M. Moore, M. Latos
Prospects: C. Correa

#12 kusch

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 11:07 PM

View PostSuperJoint, on Sep 21 2010, 09:25 PM, said:

This wk there are no clear options worthy of a #1 like BJax was last wk.

Vick IMO would be worth a #1 if you need QB help.

DThomas from DEN is borderline worth it if your WRs are shaky.

Other than those 2 - which are situation-specific - I doubt it's worth it to burn a priority this wk.

I never saw Brandon Jackson as a #1 waiver option, and he won't put up pts like one from here on out.  It really depends on how many handcuffs on runningbacks are taken in your league.  One of the RB1's is bound to go down, and you'll be kicking yourself if you miss out on his backup.  

I would hold on to it.  Even if you are 0-2 theres plenty of time for a rebound.  May be different at 0-4.

#13 Kanter112186

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 11:34 PM

View Postamcsoldier, on Sep 22 2010, 03:33 AM, said:

Sure, that's how it works in theory. But I think your point assumes perfect knowledge - knowing who is going to be a player worth picking up, and successfully using the top slot on the top player. In reality, good waiver adds are the result of educated guesswork - taking a small sample size and rolling the dice with it. Holding onto the #1 spot means you're not busy rolling the dice. Meanwhile others in your league are rolling left and right, snatching up the free agent lotto tickets.

I think having the #1 spot is overrated. I'm waiting one more week, then blowing it.

Could not agree more.  The #1 waiver spot is very frustrating to have.  You keep thinking that you are waiting and waiting for a goldmine, so you don't claim people.  Meanwhile, they are all getting claimed by teams at the bottom.  You can't ever claim a good defensive matchup and you lose guys.  I have #2 in my home league and there is NO one available now to claim.  No Demerius. Snelling and Tolbert sure, but some experts are saying how it is not smart to pick em up unless you have the starters.  I can't do that because those guys will be gone.  Can someone name a backup other then these two that would be good if their starter went down?  Bernard Scott is taken.  Snelling will be gone.  Tolbert will be claimed.  Choice is available but it's a mess there.  All the handcuffs are taken.  I like Matthews but who says he can stay healthy.  Tolbert would be a gold mine if he was out for some time.  It's time to jump.  I had the #1 a couple years ago and waited 10 weeks.  Who did I get?  The Dolphins backup the year Ronnie went down.  Jesse Chatman was his name?  I don't remember.  That could have been completely made up.  

Anyway, summing up.  #1 waiver, IMO, is kinda overrated.
"do we know if she's going to be induced or have a scheduled C-section? Because having a due date doesn't mean much at all." - markdash

10 Team DYNASTY 2QB / 2RB / 3WR / 1TE / 1 RB/WR/TE .5 PPR
QB - Rodgers, Rivers (Flacco, Pryor)
RB - Sproles, Moreno, (Wilson, Mathews, Mendenhall, Stacy)
WR - Dez, Cobb, Marshall (Decker, Kendall Wright, Reuben Randle, Broyles)
TE - Vernon Davis (H. Miller, Clay)
RB/WR/TE - Eric Decker

#14 Cowboys

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 11:48 PM

I am having a dilema between Tolbert and D Brown, right now leaning toward Brown.

Between K Walter and A Hernandez, who would you pick up first ?
10 team PPR league

QB:    D Brees, M Vick
RB:    R Rice, S. Greene, P Thomas, J Stewart, D Murray
WR:    A Johnson, R White, A Boldin, P Garcon, , V Cruz, D. Heyward-Bey, M Crabtree
TE:     T Gonzalez, F Davis
DST:   Bengals, Redskins

IR:      T. Hightower

#15 bdams19

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 12:02 AM

I have it and as much as i wanted to take Snelling i'm going to stand pat.  I need depth badly and I can't waste it on a guy who may not even be starting this week though something tells me Turner will be bothered by injuries all year again.

#16 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 01:07 AM

I have the #2 and my cousin has the #1 so i like that we can basically control the waiver wire. im scared to pass on snelling this week because turner could get hurt again, but i have to. i am 2-0 and with my starting lineup i can afford to wait. my and my cousin both are just going to hope that theres a week where someone REALLY wants some1 on the waiver wire, and ill just trade my waiver pick for some1 i really want, whos more of a certainty. Of course i could take the next brandon jackson and could have a bust on my hands, if it happens so be it. im looking at rashard jennings, keiland williams, javon ringer as guys id use my #1 on if serious injury happened to the guys ahead of them. Also my waivers are till thursday, so itd be nice if marshawn lynch got traded to a contender tomorrow B)

#17 prznexhibit

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 01:50 AM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on Sep 21 2010, 10:07 PM, said:

I have the #2 and my cousin has the #1 so i like that we can basically control the waiver wire. im scared to pass on snelling this week because turner could get hurt again, but i have to. i am 2-0 and with my starting lineup i can afford to wait. my and my cousin both are just going to hope that theres a week where someone REALLY wants some1 on the waiver wire, and ill just trade my waiver pick for some1 i really want, whos more of a certainty. Of course i could take the next brandon jackson and could have a bust on my hands, if it happens so be it. im looking at rashard jennings, keiland williams, javon ringer as guys id use my #1 on if serious injury happened to the guys ahead of them. Also my waivers are till thursday, so itd be nice if marshawn lynch got traded to a contender tomorrow B)

Should I use the #1 waiver on Lee Evans who was just dropped in a 14 team ppr league?  My #4 and 5 WR's are Cotchery and Lance Moore, and I would be dropping Moore.

#18 Naboo

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 04:40 AM

I fully agree its dangerous to have the #1, but this week I wish I had it. Someone dropped Holmes in my TD heavy 20 teamer and I doubt my #4 is enough to get him.

#19 saint429

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 05:25 AM

I was actually able to land DThomas from the 12th spot in waivers this week.  KWalter and a KICKER went before him

#20 blacknapalm

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 05:36 AM

View Postsaint429, on Sep 22 2010, 03:25 AM, said:

I was actually able to land DThomas from the 12th spot in waivers this week.  KWalter and a KICKER went before him

buying low, are you?
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SG: Evans
SF: Durant | Korver
PF:  Faried | Monroe | Plumlee | Markieff Morris
C: Ibaka | Horford | Jonas V