1892 replies to this topic

[Rob_P]

Ya heard it here first......PPR leaguers, let me introduce you to your new #1 fantasy RB.    With Tolbert gone.....add a bunch of catches and hopefully goal line carries to this young and improving stud to be.....and I think if he can stay healthy, no RB scores more then him.

[Winky]

The guy has the talent, but the injury hurdle is a big one for him.

[bmoss12]

Rob_P, on 19 March 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

Ya heard it here first......PPR leaguers, let me introduce you to your new #1 fantasy RB. With Tolbert gone.....add a bunch of catches and hopefully goal line carries to this young and improving stud to be.....and I think if he can stay healthy, no RB scores more then him.

I read this same comment when LT left.....

[Proteus]

The future is bright but #1?

Science Fiction

[Lansdowne]

The talent is there but he needs to be able to stay on the field. And while Tolbert is gone, that doesn't mean A.J. Smith isn't going to find somebody else to replace him. Still plenty of quality names out there in free agency and you can't rule out a cost-effective alternative via the draft either.

[Rob_P]

LT left when Mathews was still figuring things out and very inexperienced.  I am sure they will bring someone in but if Mathews stays healthy.....sky is the limit.   Health is a concern but that's the only hurdle to super stardom.   Despite missing games and Tolbert, Mathews was a top 7 RB this year so it's not like this is a huge jump.    Don't act surprised when it happens......I have warned ya...Mathews = Beast.      

[rraayy3]

good stuff here ... i've been drafting talent/upside over "safe" options the last couple years and it's been working out quite well

aside from foster/mccoy/rice ... mathews is in the discussion for top 5 pick and has crazy upside

the nice thing is he won't go that early, because owners want that "safe" option
(just ask the people that took jamaal charles over arian foster in 2011 how playing it safe works out)

[Rob_P]

Yep...I am all about upside.  Every year, an RB or two jump up into the top 5 mix and if you hit on them, you are in the fantasy title mix.....I don't even think this is much of a leap to say Mathews is in the top 5.....to say he will be #1 may be a stretch....but if you give him goal line carries and even half of the catches Tolbert had....plus some health and the expected development......YEP, he is gonna be a fantasy monster.  After McCoy, Foster and Rice are gone....He is my next choice...the other guys are safer but I think Mathews ceiling is every bit as high...and this is gonna be his year.   Book it !!!!

[Winky]

Rob_P, on 20 March 2012 - 10:05 AM, said:

Yep...I am all about upside.  Every year, an RB or two jump up into the top 5 mix and if you hit on them, you are in the fantasy title mix.....I don't even think this is much of a leap to say Mathews is in the top 5.....to say he will be #1 may be a stretch....but if you give him goal line carries and even half of the catches Tolbert had....plus some health and the expected development......YEP, he is gonna be a fantasy monster.  After McCoy, Foster and Rice are gone....He is my next choice...the other guys are safer but I think Mathews ceiling is every bit as high...and this is gonna be his year.   Book it !!!!

Fantasy titles are won with drafting a reliable core and finding good/surprise values late (Victor Cruz, for example).
If you grab Mathews with the #4 overall pick, he HAS to perform at that level and you HAVE to have guessed right for that pick to work out.

I do believe Mathews has high upside, just saying that if you get him with the #4 pick your fantasy title is still far from a lock.
I would be uncomfortable with him being my #1 RB and a core building block for my team.
It may indeed cost a 1st round pick to get him, but I'll let someone else do it.

Edited by Winky, 20 March 2012 - 10:56 AM.

[Rob_P]

Yes, fantasy titles are all about getting value at your slotted draft slot...I completely agree with you.  My point was this....Mathews is not generally viewed as the 4th pick in the draft.....many mocks I see have him going late first to early second.....If you get him in those slots, I think its big time value.    Anytime you draft someone who hasn't done it before...its "uncomfortable"   But there are many indicators to suggest he is in for a huge year and if I know I could get him later in the first and pair him with another stud on the way back down in a snake draft....I will feel very comfortable.

[rraayy3]

he'll get pushed down , i expect QBs to be all the rage this year in the first round - at least in my leagues

[Robrain]

I won't say Mathews doesn't have potential, but I'd say the odds are long that he ends as a top 5 RB.  He'd have to stay healthy, you're assuming no one's going to be brought in to complement him, and he'd have to perform outstandingly instead of just above average.

Ryan Mathews and Shonn Green have been bust picks the past year or two.  I'm not going to buy in unless I can get them cheaply.

I realize that Adrian Peterson (and to a much lesser degree, Rashard Mendenhall) are both not expected to really do much in 2012, and that frees up some room in the top-10, but off the top of my head, I'd guess these guys outperform Mathews:

Arian Foster / Ben Tate (if Foster is injured)
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Darren McFadden
Chris Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Lesean McCoy
Matt Forte
DeMarco Murray
Jahvid Best (probably not for the whole season for obvious reasons, but certain weeks depending on how their RB depth is)

Roy Helu / Evan Royster (assuming one is the feature back)
Fred Jackson / CJ Spiller (again, assuming one emerges as the feature back)
Frank Gore / Kendall Hunter (again, assuming one emerges as the feature back)
Peyton Hillis (if Jamaal Charles recovery goes not-as-planned)
Isaac Redman (I'm thinking of him as this year's Tim Hightower, a serviceable RB with upside)
Steven Jackson (the physical shape this guy is in, I'm sure he can pull off a FJax 2011 season at random)

Right now, I'm putting Ryan Mathews in the 2nd tier there.  Lots of question marks, lots of uncertainty, still needs to prove that he can perform reliably (for fantasy owners).  If losing VJax changes the shape of that offense, then it's conceivable they could run more, which would boost his numbers.  Right now, I'd say he's on even footing with Roy Helu as far as risk goes.  Roy Helu might even be the safer (and higher upside) bet.

Ryan Mathews: Top 20 RB in 2012? Almost certainly, as long as he stays healthy.  Top 15?  Probably.  Top 10?  If he doesn't end up in a timeshare, and manages to stay healthy, he could conceivably crack the Top 10.  Top 5?  Only if he has a real career year, and I think the odds of him ending up better than the 7th best RB in 2012 is probably about 10%.

Edited by Robrain, 20 March 2012 - 03:25 PM.

[jabrch]

rraayy3, on 20 March 2012 - 12:38 PM, said:

he'll get pushed down , i expect QBs to be all the rage this year in the first round - at least in my leagues

There are so many good QB options this year...as long as you are in a 10 or 12 team league, QBs who will put up good numbers will be there for a while.  My strategy will be to lock down 2 WR and 2 RB before looking at QB.  I'm hoping to get late picks in rd 1....a Calvin Johnson/Ryan Mathews 1/2 punch would be great...and is reasonable.  Then in round 5, get the 10th best QB and be OK with it.

[Rob_P]

Robrain, on 20 March 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

I won't say Mathews doesn't have potential, but I'd say the odds are long that he ends as a top 5 RB.  He'd have to stay healthy, you're assuming no one's going to be brought in to complement him, and he'd have to perform outstandingly instead of just above average.

Ryan Mathews and Shonn Green have been bust picks the past year or two.  I'm not going to buy in unless I can get them cheaply.

I realize that Adrian Peterson (and to a much lesser degree, Rashard Mendenhall) are both not expected to really do much in 2012, and that frees up some room in the top-10, but off the top of my head, I'd guess these guys outperform Mathews:

Arian Foster / Ben Tate (if Foster is injured)
Ray Rice
Maurice Jones-Drew
Darren McFadden
Chris Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Lesean McCoy
Matt Forte
DeMarco Murray
Jahvid Best (probably not for the whole season for obvious reasons, but certain weeks depending on how their RB depth is)

Roy Helu / Evan Royster (assuming one is the feature back)
Fred Jackson / CJ Spiller (again, assuming one emerges as the feature back)
Frank Gore / Kendall Hunter (again, assuming one emerges as the feature back)
Peyton Hillis (if Jamaal Charles recovery goes not-as-planned)
Isaac Redman (I'm thinking of him as this year's Tim Hightower, a serviceable RB with upside)
Steven Jackson (the physical shape this guy is in, I'm sure he can pull off a FJax 2011 season at random)

Right now, I'm putting Ryan Mathews in the 2nd tier there.  Lots of question marks, lots of uncertainty, still needs to prove that he can perform reliably (for fantasy owners).  If losing VJax changes the shape of that offense, then it's conceivable they could run more, which would boost his numbers.  Right now, I'd say he's on even footing with Roy Helu as far as risk goes.  Roy Helu might even be the safer (and higher upside) bet.

Ryan Mathews: Top 20 RB in 2012? Almost certainly, as long as he stays healthy.  Top 15?  Probably.  Top 10?  If he doesn't end up in a timeshare, and manages to stay healthy, he could conceivably crack the Top 10.  Top 5?  Only if he has a real career year, and I think the odds of him ending up better than the 7th best RB in 2012 is probably about 10
He was a top 7 RB last year despite Tolbert and injuries.  To suggest he actually gets worse this year doesn't make a lot of sense.   I hope there are a lot of guys with your mentality in my league.....because I see him as a sure fire top 7 RB with potential for a whole lot more.  

Edited by Rob_P, 20 March 2012 - 06:13 PM.

[Rob_P]

Not sure how or why you would predict him to get worse next year after Tolbert leaves.....he was top 7 with Tolbert and injuries.   I think he is a sure fire bet to be that good this year and very very likely to be much more.   Hope there is a lot of thoughts like yours out there because I will own him in all my leagues

[Robrain]

http://espn.go.com/n...rt/rushingYards

Well, he was just the 10th best rusher last season.  That's after Adrian Peterson ended up outside the top 10, so had Peterson not torn his ACL, let's assume Mathews would have been outside the top 10 in that stat.  Factor in the same for Mendenhall, and there's a good chance you're looking at the 12th best rusher.

I realize the flipside of that coin is "well, what if Mathews hadn't been injured?".  My point is, Mathews does get injured fairly frequently.  An ACL tear is a sort of freak, one-and-done type of injury.  It happens, and there goes your season, and it's impossible to see that kind of monumental injury coming.

The injuries that Mathews sustains are sort of "another category" of injuries.  There the small injuries that pile up when looked at across multiple seasons.  You start to see a pattern trending, and when your RB starts to miss multiple games here  and there during a season, he becomes unreliable for fantasy purposes.  Those games he leaves early with an injury, you take a huge hit that week.

Fred Jackson also broke his leg.  Had that not happened, Mathews might not have even made the top 12 rushers.

This is the sort of downside that comes with being in a timeshare.

Yes, Tolbert leaving makes his workload theoretically (logically, some would say) increase.  But that increased workload was tried in the past, and resulted with Mathews quickly coming down with injuries.  That increased workload can be a double-edged sword, especially in Mathews case (judging from the past 2 seasons).

Additionally, I've seen Mathews make mental mistakes the few times I've watched him on TV.  I seem to recall one play that stands out in my mind (during one of the terrible Chargers games last season, I believe) where Mathews just ran around like an idiot in the backfield.  He may or may not have fumbled on that play, I forget.

Anyway, if you look at that list on the link I provided, you'll see that he seems to be tied for last in the NFL for fumbles by RB (with Cedric Benson - 5).

His longest run also is the shortest (39 yards) out of the top 10 RBs (plus Peterson, Mendenhall, and FJax).

His 6 TDs...well, again, timeshare with a goal line vulture.

We all know Darren Sproles did phenomenal in the receiving game.  Interesting to note, however, that Ray Rice was just 6 receiving yards behind Sproles.  That's what a first round pick is all about.

His receiving stats, while top ~6'ish for RB's, still pale in effectiveness compared to Fred Jackson, who had less total receiving yards than Mathews, but was much more effective with his touches.


None of this makes me want to even remotely consider drafting him in the 1st round when better, more reliable RB's are available.  At earliest, I'd only consider him in the 2nd round, and not a chance as my primary RB1.

[Rob_P]

BOttom line....he was 7th in points in my league despite sharing carries and playing hurt much of the year...ya can't use his injury history against him......then point out how if other guys didn't get hurt he woulda been even lower ranked.   It's real simple for me......he is a young RB who is gonna get better due to experience and development......And his situation will also be better.   Real easy to say the same 5 guys last year will be the top 5 guys this year.....but that is never how it goes down.........a new RB will join the elite mis this year .....I tried to inform ya but clearly you aren't hearing me.

[rraayy3]

this is exactly what i was talking about , and exactly why he'll still be a good draft value.

he's not "safe", but there are also few backs that can top his upside (outside of the foster/mccoy/rice types)

i'm in ... is it august yet?

[phegotgame14]

Matthews has talent. He has has put up great numbers sharing time with Tolbert. But, He has also gotten hurt every year sharing time with Tolbert. So is he going to stay healthy for an entire year when he is the primary back when he couldn't stay healthy when he was getting rest.....??

[Easter Bunny From Hell]

• I drafted Matthews in my keeper league knowing he was supposed to be the next big thing.  All the injuries and two years later, as good as he is........you better draft whoever they pick up to back him up.  I dont think its gonna be that Curtis Carleson kid or whatever his name is.....he is injury prone too from concussions.