1892 replies to this topic

[ludawg23]

New coach or not, the guy is still made of glass and he's a lock to miss games.  I wouldn't take him as my starting 2 RBs but if he fell far enough, he could be well worth the risk.  It's just hard to trust him week in and week out with his injury history and relatively disappointing career thus far.

[GottaGetTheWin]

If you really think about it though come draft time next year how many running backs are going to be in the situation that he's in.  A talented back who I'm assuming will have an every down role with the new coaching staff.  In this craptastic RB situation the NFL is how many guys are people trusting over him....

In no particular order:

AP, Rice, McCoy, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Trent, Morris.  THose are the locks and then you get into higher tier RBs with question marks... Spiller, Forte, Chris Johnson, DMC, Gore, Mathews.  

Assuming that we would all take those guys before Mathews that still makes him the 14th back available which in a 10 team league puts him at a mid-level RB2.  12+ teams he is a high end RB2/Low end RB1.  Whether he puts up Rb2 numbers will be seen but there just aren't many guys with the talent he has and the type of situation he is in.

[cbe_88]

GottaGetTheWin, on 09 January 2013 - 12:00 PM, said:

If you really think about it though come draft time next year how many running backs are going to be in the situation that he's in.  A talented back who I'm assuming will have an every down role with the new coaching staff.  In this craptastic RB situation the NFL is how many guys are people trusting over him....

In no particular order:

AP, Rice, McCoy, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Trent, Morris.  THose are the locks and then you get into higher tier RBs with question marks... Spiller, Forte, Chris Johnson, DMC, Gore, Mathews.  

Assuming that we would all take those guys before Mathews that still makes him the 14th back available which in a 10 team league puts him at a mid-level RB2.  12+ teams he is a high end RB2/Low end RB1.  Whether he puts up Rb2 numbers will be seen but there just aren't many guys with the talent he has and the type of situation he is in.

This is just my preference, but at this point, I think I'm gonna take a boring but relatively consistent RB2 Law-Firm over him next year, barring another RB pickup in Cincy that he'll have to split time with...or a Sproles that will have some blow-up potential and with Payton back to put everything in order. I see the positives to point out in his value for 2013 and the validity to make the bounce back players list, but I just don't have confidence in Mathews.

[rraayy3]

ryan mathews missed 4/16 games ... that would be 25% of the season.
ryan mathews was "benched" for jackie battle at one point ...
ryan mathews lost his 3rd down role to ronnie brown ...
ryan mathews' offense turned into wasteland ...

and he was still ranked 31st overall for a RB. considering it would be near impossible to have a worse year ... his floor is still RB2/flex. his upside is top 10 RB.

[GottaGetTheWin]

GottaGetTheWin, on 09 January 2013 - 12:00 PM, said:

If you really think about it though come draft time next year how many running backs are going to be in the situation that he's in.  A talented back who I'm assuming will have an every down role with the new coaching staff.  In this craptastic RB situation the NFL is how many guys are people trusting over him....

In no particular order:

AP, Rice, McCoy, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Trent, Morris.  THose are the locks and then you get into higher tier RBs with question marks... Spiller, Forte, Chris Johnson, DMC, Gore, Mathews.  

Assuming that we would all take those guys before Mathews that still makes him the 14th back available which in a 10 team league puts him at a mid-level RB2.  12+ teams he is a high end RB2/Low end RB1.  Whether he puts up Rb2 numbers will be seen but there just aren't many guys with the talent he has and the type of situation he is in.

I forgot to add Martin to this list

[cbe_88]

His injury-proneness alone forces me to disagree with a floor of an RB2/flex play. His ceiling is fine, it's his floor that scares me, his floor has tanked pretty good before.

If there was anyway I could know he'd be down to actually play 16 games, I'd be much more likely to agree with such a floor, especially if he's used correctly, and as stated above he wasn't even used on 3rd downs last year which seems to be his forte. But he's officially paired with DMC with for me with a paranoia of significant injury every year or even misuse.

[ludawg23]

rraayy3, on 09 January 2013 - 12:15 PM, said:

ryan mathews missed 4/16 games ... that would be 25% of the season.
ryan mathews was "benched" for jackie battle at one point ...
ryan mathews lost his 3rd down role to ronnie brown ...
ryan mathews' offense turned into wasteland ...

and he was still ranked 31st overall for a RB. considering it would be near impossible to have a worse year ... his floor is still RB2/flex. his upside is top 10 RB.

I think this just proves how crappy the RB situation was this year...not how "good" Mathews was with all the factors against him.

Still, he had single digit fantasy points in 9 out of the 12 games he played and only scored one TD.  If you had him, I'm pretty sure you started him and most of the time, he hurt you more than he helped.  And it's not like people were flexing him, he still cost a an early 2nd round pick in competitive leagues.

Edited by ludawg23, 09 January 2013 - 12:25 PM.

[rraayy3]

cbe_88, on 09 January 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

His injury-proneness alone forces me to disagree with a floor of an RB2/flex play. His ceiling is fine, it's his floor that scares me, his floor has tanked pretty good before.

If there was anyway I could know he'd be down to actually play 16 games, I'd be much more likely to agree with such a floor, especially if he's used correctly, and as stated above he wasn't even used on 3rd downs last year which seems to be his forte. But he's officially paired with DMC with for me with a paranoia of significant injury every year or even misuse.

in a 12 team league ... the flex [if it's a RB] would be in the 24-36 overall range [mathews 31, in this nightmare 2012]. unless you think is floor is much worse than this year ... still looks like a flex to me in 12-14+ team leagues, and that seems like worse case scenario.

[GottaGetTheWin]

cbe_88, on 09 January 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

His injury-proneness alone forces me to disagree with a floor of an RB2/flex play. His ceiling is fine, it's his floor that scares me, his floor has tanked pretty good before.

If there was anyway I could know he'd be down to actually play 16 games, I'd be much more likely to agree with such a floor, especially if he's used correctly, and as stated above he wasn't even used on 3rd downs last year which seems to be his forte. But he's officially paired with DMC with for me with a paranoia of significant injury every year or even misuse.

Yet, DMC is still picked as an RB1 every year.  He has never played over 13 games in a season and he's only rushed for more than 710 yards once.   For comparison sake Mathews has only behind DMC in career rushing yards by 858 and that's with two fewer seasons, yet DMC is always an RB1 pick.  

All the bad statements about Mathews in this thread are valid but they are exactly the same for DMC but he doesn't get nearly as much hate.

[cbe_88]

rraayy3, on 09 January 2013 - 12:27 PM, said:

cbe_88, on 09 January 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

His injury-proneness alone forces me to disagree with a floor of an RB2/flex play. His ceiling is fine, it's his floor that scares me, his floor has tanked pretty good before.

If there was anyway I could know he'd be down to actually play 16 games, I'd be much more likely to agree with such a floor, especially if he's used correctly, and as stated above he wasn't even used on 3rd downs last year which seems to be his forte. But he's officially paired with DMC with for me with a paranoia of significant injury every year or even misuse.

in a 12 team league ... the flex [if it's a RB] would be in the 24-36 overall range [mathews 31, in this nightmare 2012]. unless you think is floor is much worse than this year ... still looks like a flex to me in 12-14+ team leagues, and that seems like worse case scenario.

I agree that there's reason to draft Mathews as a flex and hope for the best. His ceiling warrants that. There's a few too many buyer beware tags on him, for me though. One should concede that there are positive reasons to have some faith in this guy, yet again, hoping for that breakout year, (fantasy situation, guaranteed workload, very young, hopes of being used correctly) but you also can't blame me for not having very much confidence in him with the way he's started the first 3 years in the league, only finding success in 1 out of 3 years and injury proneness being the lead contributing factor.

[cbe_88]

GottaGetTheWin, on 09 January 2013 - 12:37 PM, said:

cbe_88, on 09 January 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

His injury-proneness alone forces me to disagree with a floor of an RB2/flex play. His ceiling is fine, it's his floor that scares me, his floor has tanked pretty good before.

If there was anyway I could know he'd be down to actually play 16 games, I'd be much more likely to agree with such a floor, especially if he's used correctly, and as stated above he wasn't even used on 3rd downs last year which seems to be his forte. But he's officially paired with DMC with for me with a paranoia of significant injury every year or even misuse.

Yet, DMC is still picked as an RB1 every year.  He has never played over 13 games in a season and he's only rushed for more than 710 yards once.   For comparison sake Mathews has only behind DMC in career rushing yards by 858 and that's with two fewer seasons, yet DMC is always an RB1 pick.  

All the bad statements about Mathews in this thread are valid but they are exactly the same for DMC but he doesn't get nearly as much hate.

Correct, The very mixed review I have on Mathews stands very similar with DMC. I'm not sure DMC isn't just as hated in fantasy circles, however. Might just be me. Mathews would have had similar ADP of DMC last year if it wasn't for that broken collarbone in the offseason. In fact I saw some (Yahoo!) ranked as the 5th overall pick last year before the injury. I take Yahoo rankings with a grain of salt now.

[GottaGetTheWin]

Haha yea Yahoo rankings are garbage.  I HATE trying to make a trade in Yahoo where they have those stupid end of the year projections and someone won't make a completely fair trade because Yahoo projections don't look good.  

I guess I'm reversed where I hate DMC more than Mathews but DMC is clearly not hated as much as Mathews.   This year I saw DMC go anywhere from #5 overall to #15 overall.  Didn't make it past that in any draft I did(mock or real).  I don't think Mathews will go before #15 overall in pretty much any draft because of the hate even though as you said Mathews/DMC are pretty much the same player at this point.

[cbe_88]

lol I know right, Yahoo really doesn't get it right sometimes. For me, DMC and Mathews are two guys I've passed up every year in drafts and let other owners take chances on, and so far I've never really regretted either of those decisions the past 3 or 4 years. And to be frank, I don't see enough to change that way of thinking, despite conceding the young, upside and workload factor is enough for some owners to believe in.