464 replies to this topic

[bdams19]

I was curious that there is no thread on him as he nears the Micheal Turner-esque point of his career where people begin to predict his downfall.  

There is now news of him threatening to hold out into camp for a new deal due to the fact that he seems vastly underpaid as the NFLs leading rusher and 150% of the Jaguar's offense (not statistically accurate).  Before the latest news, I had him pegged as a top 6 pick.  What say you?

[Obscene_Domino]

I don't think he's done yet. Everyone pretty much put up the same argument against him last year and those that drafted him it paid off greatly. Although he did have a ton of carries last year which never translate into a good follow up season.

I think the Jags offense is switching a new direction, I'm not saying it will be good but seemingly they want to pass more and be less reliant on the run. I think it's stupid for them not to sign MJD as he is one of the most reliable players in the league no matter the wear and tear. He's in great physical condition. He looks like a straight bodybuilder.

I think he will eventually sign after he starts getting fined a bit for not showing up. He is one of the few players that doesn't need to show up to camp to be effective, even with a new offense I think he will be fine. Still like him as a mid-1st round pick in that 5-7 range.

[DocJ]

I am avoiding him at his current ADP. Two reasons:

1. His knees are a ticking time bomb. At least one is bone on bone, sorry but I don't care how good you are, having a meniscus in the NFL is kinda a necessity at some point.

2. Horrible offense. I know I know, he defied the odds last year but can he really keep up that insane yards after contact average?

[Finally Detroit Wins]

Although part of the reason he blew every other RB out of the water last year was because he had 52 more carries than Ray Rice (second best rusher). The other part goes to the fact that he has a low center of gravity, which helps him break tackles, and he weighs 200lbs. This guy doesn't go down easily at all. Last year he faced 8 men in the box basically every single time he ran the ball and when you add in the fact that they had no receiving threats than that just makes it even more amazing. He's still 27, he's in his prime. Bottom line, he's a first round talent.

Nice thread to start, weird he didn't have one already.

[RMJ_12]

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

[Panthor]

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

[Go Big Blue]

MJD definitely falls into place as the 4th RB on the board (IMO).  However this year, I would probably wait til later in the first round to grab him with Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson clearly ahead of him.  Depending on your league (and the NFL in general) it may pay off to look at Brady and/or Brees in this position as well.

Basically, he fits in the picks 6-10 range, if you have faith, which I do.

Looking at ADP right now, he is behind Mathews and CJ.

Edited by Go Big Blue, 05 July 2012 - 02:00 PM.

[RMJ_12]

jones-drew has 3 good years left

Edited by RMJ_12, 07 July 2012 - 01:15 PM.

[RMJ_12]

Panthor, on 05 July 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

[kcchiefs25]

So at the 6 spot, who are you taking if it's between Chris Johnson and MJD?

[Panthor]

RMJ_12, on 07 July 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Panthor, on 05 July 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

whether he started or not is irrelevant.  all being a "starter" means is that you're the first one of the field.  what matters is the workload you have in each game and in each season.  his 1400+ carries and 1700+ touches in 6 seasons is a "starters" workload.  DeAngelo Williams has been the "starter" in Carolina and he isn't even near MJD's workload.  and don't forget about Joseph Addai.  both "starters" and neither one even close to the amount of work MJD has seen

and as for not breaking down by age 27, why don't you tell that to Addai and Williams too.  both of them broke down at age 27, with significantly less mileage on their legs.

and then there is Michael Turner, 382 touches, a rushing title and the next year he didn't get to 900 yards or 200 touches.  and this was a guy who had almost no mileage on his legs, who got to sit on the bench and only came into a game because LT needed to take a break for a minute

and your notion that RBs always go downhill after 30, don't say that in front of Thomas Jones who had his best years after he turned 30.

there is no absolute rule or guideline you can use when trying to figure out if a player is going to break down.  and i for one don't think MJD will break down this year but you are delusional if you think it is a lock he is going to have another 300+ touch season in 2012

[RMJ_12]

Panthor, on 09 July 2012 - 12:10 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 07 July 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Panthor, on 05 July 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

whether he started or not is irrelevant.  all being a "starter" means is that you're the first one of the field.  what matters is the workload you have in each game and in each season.  his 1400+ carries and 1700+ touches in 6 seasons is a "starters" workload.  DeAngelo Williams has been the "starter" in Carolina and he isn't even near MJD's workload.  and don't forget about Joseph Addai.  both "starters" and neither one even close to the amount of work MJD has seen

and as for not breaking down by age 27, why don't you tell that to Addai and Williams too.  both of them broke down at age 27, with significantly less mileage on their legs.

and then there is Michael Turner, 382 touches, a rushing title and the next year he didn't get to 900 yards or 200 touches.  and this was a guy who had almost no mileage on his legs, who got to sit on the bench and only came into a game because LT needed to take a break for a minute

and your notion that RBs always go downhill after 30, don't say that in front of Thomas Jones who had his best years after he turned 30.

there is no absolute rule or guideline you can use when trying to figure out if a player is going to break down.  and i for one don't think MJD will break down this year but you are delusional if you think it is a lock he is going to have another 300+ touch season in 2012

addai didnt breakdown he got injured every year.  and i dont buy any of this he got too many carries last year or too many carries the past 3 years crap, its all bs.  mjd works hard and he is in amazing shape, he's also a bowling ball

[Panthor]

RMJ_12, on 13 July 2012 - 10:24 AM, said:

Panthor, on 09 July 2012 - 12:10 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 07 July 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Panthor, on 05 July 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

whether he started or not is irrelevant.  all being a "starter" means is that you're the first one of the field.  what matters is the workload you have in each game and in each season.  his 1400+ carries and 1700+ touches in 6 seasons is a "starters" workload.  DeAngelo Williams has been the "starter" in Carolina and he isn't even near MJD's workload.  and don't forget about Joseph Addai.  both "starters" and neither one even close to the amount of work MJD has seen

and as for not breaking down by age 27, why don't you tell that to Addai and Williams too.  both of them broke down at age 27, with significantly less mileage on their legs.

and then there is Michael Turner, 382 touches, a rushing title and the next year he didn't get to 900 yards or 200 touches.  and this was a guy who had almost no mileage on his legs, who got to sit on the bench and only came into a game because LT needed to take a break for a minute

and your notion that RBs always go downhill after 30, don't say that in front of Thomas Jones who had his best years after he turned 30.

there is no absolute rule or guideline you can use when trying to figure out if a player is going to break down.  and i for one don't think MJD will break down this year but you are delusional if you think it is a lock he is going to have another 300+ touch season in 2012

addai didnt breakdown he got injured every year.  and i dont buy any of this he got too many carries last year or too many carries the past 3 years crap, its all bs.  mjd works hard and he is in amazing shape, he's also a bowling ball

getting injured every year would mean you're breaking down.

so you'll use workload when it suits your argument but will discount it when it contradicts it.

Quote

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

[crazy47larry]

RMJ_12, on 13 July 2012 - 10:24 AM, said:

Panthor, on 09 July 2012 - 12:10 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 07 July 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Panthor, on 05 July 2012 - 01:09 PM, said:

RMJ_12, on 05 July 2012 - 12:35 PM, said:

anyone who thinks mjd will break down at age 27 is a complete moron lol

age has nothing to do with it.  has more to do with the 1400+ carries and preexisting knee issues

yes but you havent accumulated enough wear and tear by age 27 lol, that why rb's always do downhill at 30 not 27. yeah sure he's had a lot of carries in the past 3 seasons but jones-drew didnt even start in his first 3 seasons. and lets please not talk about his knees being a problem when he had knee surgery last offseason and then he won the rushing title with over 1600 rushing yards

whether he started or not is irrelevant.  all being a "starter" means is that you're the first one of the field.  what matters is the workload you have in each game and in each season.  his 1400+ carries and 1700+ touches in 6 seasons is a "starters" workload.  DeAngelo Williams has been the "starter" in Carolina and he isn't even near MJD's workload.  and don't forget about Joseph Addai.  both "starters" and neither one even close to the amount of work MJD has seen

and as for not breaking down by age 27, why don't you tell that to Addai and Williams too.  both of them broke down at age 27, with significantly less mileage on their legs.

and then there is Michael Turner, 382 touches, a rushing title and the next year he didn't get to 900 yards or 200 touches.  and this was a guy who had almost no mileage on his legs, who got to sit on the bench and only came into a game because LT needed to take a break for a minute

and your notion that RBs always go downhill after 30, don't say that in front of Thomas Jones who had his best years after he turned 30.

there is no absolute rule or guideline you can use when trying to figure out if a player is going to break down.  and i for one don't think MJD will break down this year but you are delusional if you think it is a lock he is going to have another 300+ touch season in 2012

addai didnt breakdown he got injured every year. and i dont buy any of this he got too many carries last year or too many carries the past 3 years crap, its all bs.  mjd works hard and he is in amazing shape, he's also a bowling ball

This made me laugh.




Seriously though what is your definition of breaking down?

[myzto]

I'm staying away from MJD due to the amount of wear and tear and the Jaguars offense.

If I was a pro for MJD I think you could argue how he's built ect... to last a while.  A few backs can do it.  Although, the Turner comparison was a good one.  Why risk your season on MJD?  Where you would take him, you would be passing up on a rejuvenated CJ2K?  I couldn't make that move.  I'd take Lynch over MJD too.

Every couple years the big rusher changes, and too many of us GM's take the guy after the big season and not prior.

[rraayy3]

~2000 total yards, 11 TDs
~1600 total yards, 7 TDs
~1800 total yards, 16 TDs

that is his last 3 years of production, and he split carries his first few years so age is irrelevant and he's been a stud every year despite the same bs knocks every year

assuming he is in camp on time, you are an idiot if you pass on him.

[cbe_88]

I see both sides of this argument, and their both very legitimate.

MJD has proven he can carry the load, although small and although on a crap team. That's incredible. Period. He probably deservers a first round pick for this reason alone. And 27 is NOT old no matter how you look at it.

I don't doubt his skill or even his health. His holdout is just making me nervous. We've seen the MOST TALENTED backs have an off year because of contract disputes causing no time maintain their gel with the team in the offseason. He's causing his offense to take a different direction. And this looks like the contract dispute making the least amount of progress. If he's not suiting up at training camp, and gets his contract days before the regular season etc, then I'm not touching him. I'm taking CJ1K over MJD right now unless his contract gets sorted out.

All that said, MJD could get his contract days before the reg season, and could still have the exact same role as bellcow of the entire offense, but you'd be dumb to say there's not risk there though if that happens. Too much risk for me.

However, if both sides negotiated a contract today, I'd be all over MJD in the 2nd half of the first round. He's that good. That would make him and CJ1K a coin flip for me.

[Proteus]

I'm not gonna argue with any of the above because I can't.

But I can't stop thinking about last year's thread.

It was even darker than this one, because he was fresh off of surgery.

Then he stomped a**.

[falcons]

i think he has one more year left till he breaks down. remember that interview with the dr. on here last year talking about his knee? there was a big concern on how his knee would hold up long term.


You just dont want to be that guy that drafts mjd the year he breaks down.

[Panthor]

MJD is still a must draft at the end of the first round, i'll just be in pins and needles all season hoping the other shoe doesn't drop