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Damian Lillard 2012-2013 Season Outlook


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#1 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 07:23 PM

I been reading a lot about Lillard and watching some video on him. Seems like an intriguing player to be honest. Looks like more of a scoring guard at the moment though. It seems like his play-making needs some work. I already question him being an NBA PG. Seems like one of these Bayless, Lou Williams types..........What do others think about Lillard?
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#2 nickalero99

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 08:28 PM

I only saw Weber St. play once due to their place in a weak conference.  I liked what I saw.  I think the low assist numbers comes in large part due to not having great teammates.  He was pushed into scoring because it was a more likely scoring option than him passing.  Similar to Lin at Harvard.

Playing at Weber, I think it hurts the scouts as well.  It's hard to say whether he could have done the same thing that he did playing in the Big East.  The Blazers are obviously all-in which is a big vote of confidence.  You don't see many rookies that get as much run as it looks like he is going to get.  Nolan Smith and Jonny Flynn are not going to take a ton of minutes away from him that's for sure.  He's one guy I will be looking into in the summer league to see what he can do against NBA players.  I think he's legit, but SO hard to say.

#3 specialK2

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:14 PM

From what little I watched since seeing this thread and after taking a look at his stats, I can't say I like the type of player he is. He has a good vertical, great 3ball, is a natural finisher at the rim, but that seems to be about it; he's a scorer. He's 86-87% at the line, 39% behind the arc and his vertical allows him to dunk in situations where layups would get trapped on the glass so he's not a run-of-the-mill scorer. That said, he seems to be a defensive liability, unwilling to pass (maybe he had no one to pass to) and good at best when he does pass.

At best: Eric Gordon, a prolific scorer with average, sometimes good, passing ability and decent rebounding ability due to innate athleticism.  Decent defender, but leaves a lot to be desired.
At worst: Jerryd Bayless, a decent to good scorer who can get hot and score 40 points occasionally. Unwilling and poor passer, complete and utter defensive liability.  Low playing time due to inability to run the offense and defend
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#4 Warno

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:00 PM

I love him this year, maybe my top sleeper.

I remember on draft night it showed his pick and roll stats and he was the top guard in the nation in efficiency, so I think he will be able to rack up the assists with Aldridge popping out and hitting shots.  He hits 3's, gets steals and shoots good %'s.  Can't ask for much more from a late round pick.

He has great size for a PG (6'3" with a 6'8" wingspan) - very similar to Westbrook's measurements.

Factoring in that he has the starting gig from day 1 and he looks to be a prime candidate for sleeper of the year.

#5 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:04 AM

Good comments earlier in the thread about his assist numbers potentially being impacted from lower talent teammates. I am still learning a lot about this kid, but based on the profile from college numbers it just screams tweener combo guard. Now...we have seen a few of those types become very effective players like Ben Gordon, Arenas, Monta, but we also have seen many flop only to be reduced to a more limited bench role due to lack of playmaking/running an offense. Assuming that the Blazers match on Batum, Lilliard should have some nice options with LA, Batum and Matthews to ease the transition. I still think the jury is out on him due to position challenges and how he adjust to "real" non-big sky competition. More some reason the kid reminds me a lot of Brandon Knight
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#6 specialK2

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 09:22 PM



looked like a drose/westy dunk imo

Edited by specialK2, 19 July 2012 - 09:23 PM.

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#7 eyitchap

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 09:35 PM

full with westbrook's #, and post dunk scream/stare combo

#8 And Won

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 12:14 AM

Just took him at Pick 50 in a keeper.

It was a reach but I am expecting a scorer.

#9 patentboy23

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 12:30 AM

View PostAnd Won, on 22 September 2012 - 12:14 AM, said:

Just took him at Pick 50 in a keeper.

It was a reach but I am expecting a scorer.

Who were the best players on the board still?

#10 Noreturn12

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 06:37 AM

I think a lot of people are going to be very disappointed in him to be honest, especially in his rookie year. He will be a real negative at turnovers at 3-4 a game and probably a drag on fg% especially at the volume he will throw them up. He might not even hit 40% from the field. It took the likes of Westbrook and Jennings years to correct for these weaknesses in their fantasy game, and that's a generous comparison for him to be compared to these stars. Its hard to know how much of his score first tendencies were a result of the competition he faced and the poor scoring abilitiys of the teammates he had, but he will have to change his MO to be much of a plus at assists. Sometimes selfishness is ingrained in these types of players (whether it is in him remains to be seen). His steals and 3 numbers should be reasonable, but not real difference maker when compared to most pgs. The only category I see him being elite in is ft%, with the amount of times he will get to the line, he should really move the needle there. He should be a moderate plus at points and rebounds (for his position). But really, its all about the drag he will be at 2 very important stat categories.

I might take him in the leagues I opt to punt blocks and will take him in a dynasty/keeper perhaps if others doesn't reach too much or overspend on him. But I imagine I will end up with him in 0 of my 8 leagues once the hype train picks up and his adp climbs. Currently he is undervalue at a o-rank of 96, which is wrong and why he gets so much attention. But soon it will flip the other way round and he will become overdrafted.I won't take him above pick 80 in a typical league.
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#11 w00funk

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Posted 22 September 2012 - 12:11 PM

View PostNoreturn12, on 22 September 2012 - 06:37 AM, said:

I think a lot of people are going to be very disappointed in him to be honest, especially in his rookie year. He will be a real negative at turnovers at 3-4 a game and probably a drag on fg% especially at the volume he will throw them up. He might not even hit 40% from the field. It took the likes of Westbrook and Jennings years to correct for these weaknesses in their fantasy game, and that's a generous comparison for him to be compared to these stars. Its hard to know how much of his score first tendencies were a result of the competition he faced and the poor scoring abilitiys of the teammates he had, but he will have to change his MO to be much of a plus at assists. Sometimes selfishness is ingrained in these types of players (whether it is in him remains to be seen). His steals and 3 numbers should be reasonable, but not real difference maker when compared to most pgs. The only category I see him being elite in is ft%, with the amount of times he will get to the line, he should really move the needle there. He should be a moderate plus at points and rebounds (for his position). But really, its all about the drag he will be at 2 very important stat categories.

I might take him in the leagues I opt to punt blocks and will take him in a dynasty/keeper perhaps if others doesn't reach too much or overspend on him. But I imagine I will end up with him in 0 of my 8 leagues once the hype train picks up and his adp climbs. Currently he is undervalue at a o-rank of 96, which is wrong and why he gets so much attention. But soon it will flip the other way round and he will become overdrafted.I won't take him above pick 80 in a typical league.

I agree with you 100%.  Unless it's a keeper league, I'm not touching him in top 100.  It's difficult to pick a rookie in the top 100, let alone top 50.  I see Lillard having a fantasy career trajectory more like Rose/Westbrook/Jennings rather than CP3/Curry/Irving.  The horrible FG% coupled with high TO really kill the value of most high-usage rookie PGs.

#12 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 03:53 PM

Let the hype commence. Next stop ROY............



Coach Terry Stotts confirmed that Damian Lillard will be his team's starting point guard.
Stotts made it clear that his plans were designed for training camp, but we fully expect Lillard to hold onto the job throughout the season. Stotts called Lillard "very talented," and also added that what the rookie did during summer league "wasn't a fluke." The starting five will be rounded out by Wes Matthews, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge and J.J. Hickson.
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#13 patentboy23

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 05:52 PM

View Postw00funk, on 22 September 2012 - 12:11 PM, said:

View PostNoreturn12, on 22 September 2012 - 06:37 AM, said:

I think a lot of people are going to be very disappointed in him to be honest, especially in his rookie year. He will be a real negative at turnovers at 3-4 a game and probably a drag on fg% especially at the volume he will throw them up. He might not even hit 40% from the field. It took the likes of Westbrook and Jennings years to correct for these weaknesses in their fantasy game, and that's a generous comparison for him to be compared to these stars. Its hard to know how much of his score first tendencies were a result of the competition he faced and the poor scoring abilitiys of the teammates he had, but he will have to change his MO to be much of a plus at assists. Sometimes selfishness is ingrained in these types of players (whether it is in him remains to be seen). His steals and 3 numbers should be reasonable, but not real difference maker when compared to most pgs. The only category I see him being elite in is ft%, with the amount of times he will get to the line, he should really move the needle there. He should be a moderate plus at points and rebounds (for his position). But really, its all about the drag he will be at 2 very important stat categories.

I might take him in the leagues I opt to punt blocks and will take him in a dynasty/keeper perhaps if others doesn't reach too much or overspend on him. But I imagine I will end up with him in 0 of my 8 leagues once the hype train picks up and his adp climbs. Currently he is undervalue at a o-rank of 96, which is wrong and why he gets so much attention. But soon it will flip the other way round and he will become overdrafted.I won't take him above pick 80 in a typical league.

I agree with you 100%.  Unless it's a keeper league, I'm not touching him in top 100.  It's difficult to pick a rookie in the top 100, let alone top 50.  I see Lillard having a fantasy career trajectory more like Rose/Westbrook/Jennings rather than CP3/Curry/Irving.  The horrible FG% coupled with high TO really kill the value of most high-usage rookie PGs.

I thought the same about Rubio and made the mistake of letting him fall to round 10 or 11.  Look how that turned out :rolleyes: .  Fortunately, I ended up trading Tyreke and Hawes for him and Gallo so it worked out kind of :unsure:

#14 w00funk

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 11:31 PM

View Postpatentboy23, on 25 September 2012 - 05:52 PM, said:

I thought the same about Rubio and made the mistake of letting him fall to round 10 or 11.  Look how that turned out :rolleyes: .  Fortunately, I ended up trading Tyreke and Hawes for him and Gallo so it worked out kind of :unsure:

Yea, some rookies play well and outperform their ADP, but I don't see your point since Rubio and Lillard have completely different games.  Lillard is score first while Rubio is pass-first.  Rubio actually illustrates my point.  Despite his elite assists and steals, Rubio was 6th round value his rookie year due to low FG%/TO.  Sure Lillard can and will post nice counting stats, but I'm highly doubtful that he will be in top 50 by end of the year.

#15 BoredSam

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Posted 26 September 2012 - 01:33 PM

Lillard is the guy that tore up the summer league right? I don't follow Portland closely at all but I think of LMA as a catch and shoot kind of guy (maybe not catch and shoot but he is not a back to the basket 4), I thought Lillard could have decent assist numbers around 6 per game.
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#16 fantasypro123

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Posted 28 September 2012 - 05:47 PM

His low fg is hard to overcome since he will be a volume shooter. I think there are better players then Damian at his average adp. Sure he get you a lot of threes and points but his low fg is a big turn off. My average in past fantasy teams is over 48% fg.
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#17 ilikebasketball

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Posted 28 September 2012 - 06:04 PM

I'd project his numbers to be similar to Brandon Knight's, albeit a little better, this coming season, since there's better talent on the TrailBlazers than the Pistons.

#18 hersh12

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 09:53 PM

I really really like him - I am in a league with 10 teams and we keep 7 guys every year. So the draft starts in the 8th round by normal league standards.

I know other GMs in my league are high on him and are wanting to take him with the 3rd-6th pick and I have an offer given to me for the 4th pick (Davis and MKG will be taken with the 1st and 2nd pick).  

The offer: my first rounder in 2013 and a 3rd rounder in 2014 to take Lillard with the 3rd pick this year.

Is it worth it?  My reasoning has basically come down to - I might as well take the risk but it would mean that I lose my chance of getting Nerlins Noel or Shabazz Muhammed next year.  Lillard > Shabazz?

Its a loaded question, any help to decide is appreciated, thanks.
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#19 hersh12

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Posted 29 September 2012 - 09:54 PM

John Hollinger's ESPN Insider info on Lillard is as follows, and is somewhat concerning, especially his point on how lottery pick Seniors are rarely successful, if ever.

Scouting report
+ Shoot-first point guard with deep range. Decent passer with good handle.
+ Good athlete but not elite. Smart, efficient player. Draws fouls. Money from line.

Analysis
Lillard has some positive markers, but the negative indicators shouldn't be ignored either. Seniors taken in the lottery have a poor track record of success, and Lillard seems to fit the prototype of many. He doesn't have strong athletic metrics, and he played a very weak schedule as a collegian.

The offsetting positive is how tremendously efficient he is offensively. Lillard shot 40.9 percent on 3s and 88.7 percent from the line during his senior year, so at worst he is going to be a tremendous floor spacer. Additionally, despite having to be his team's main scorer at Weber State, his pure point rating wasn't bad. It assumed he'll find teammates more as a second or third option in the pros.

For those reasons, I have no problem with him as a first-rounder, but at No. 6, you want star potential. Based on his age and pedigree, Lillard seems to have a low ceiling in that regard.
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#20 Travis Burten

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 03:03 PM

He's going to become a SUPERSTAR, but not in his rookie year. He's probably looking at something liek 15 PPG, 6 APG, 4 RPG, 1.3 STL, 1.5 3PTM, and 45%/75% FG/FT.




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