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Jonas Valanciunas 2012-2013 Season Outlook


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#1 fredrick.brewer

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 04:29 PM

Former 5th overall pick. Cant teach height @ 6'11 and 240 lbs

I dont know a whole lot about the but only big men in Toronto are Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, Aaron Gray, which are "so-so" at best. Can this guy play center and eat up a bunch of minutes?

He has been named MVP in a few leagues he has played in ad also a Eurocup rising star. Looks to have some decent numbers wherever he has played, even in limited minutes. Almost had a triple dub in an all star game as well.

Sneaky late round grab here?
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#2 fredrick.brewer

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 04:40 PM

doh! typo on the name...swapped the u and i around :)
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#3 ballsohard

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 05:03 PM

You missed their most prominent big man, Andrea Bargnani. The Raptors picked Valancuinas with the vision of starting that big foreign frontcourt of Barg/Val, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors throw him into the fire immediately with his overseas experience. Amir is much too inconsistent to be in any starting lineup right now, Ed Davis is still developing, and Aaron Gray is nothing more than a rotation player. As their roster currently stands, Val definitely has some potential in late rounds.

#4 fredrick.brewer

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 05:07 PM

I didnt forget about Bargs, I assumed starting PF for him is a no brainer. Which only leaves the C for Jonas so i just didnt bring him up.
But potentially jonas coud slide to PF while bargs rests and another big man plays alongside him.

Edited by fredrick.brewer, 18 July 2012 - 05:07 PM.

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#5 nickalero99

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 05:08 PM

I like him as a 10-8-1.5 if he can secure a starting role, which I think he will. He was one of the leading rebounders and shot blockers in Europe and while he played somewhat inferior competition, he has experience against some vets that have played in the NBA with varying levels of success (AK-47, Brezec, Kristic) and held his own. I think had he been drafted in this class, he would have been the 2nd pick.

#6 krupocin

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 05:11 PM

Word is that this guy is the real deal and should form a sick front line with Bargnani, especially considering they have very complimentary skill sets, and are both European so they can help peel each other's skinny jeans & Uggz off at the end of the day ;) Actually though, he is now a true 7'0" with a 7'4" wingspan & 9'4" standing reach - he actually grew an inch after being drafted kind of like Paul George last year.

All kidding aside though, I always read up on Euro lottery picks since I love the whole "unknown" aspect, & I've read a report on this guy that said if he played in the USA he might have gone as high as #2 overall in his draft and that he has the tools to be a star in the NBA - it's just up to him at this point.

He is often compared to Enes Kanter being in the same class, but I think they are actually quite different. Kanter is more offensive minded & although huge, is still a little smaller than Valanciunas height/length wise. Valanciunas is actually the anti-Euro European player, being known for his grit & defensive prowess more than anything else. He is solid offensively w/ flashes of brilliance at times, but often prefers to defer to others, which is why I think Toronto is really the best place for him. While some of the other lottery teams that year needed all the offensive help they can get, Toronto's current starting roster (Bargnani, DeRozan, Ross/Fields, Lowry/Calderon, w/ Kleiza and Johnson off the pine) they couldn't be more starved for a guy like Valanciunas.

Also, it's worth noting, his fellow countryman Montejiunas (sp??) has been tearing it up in the summer league for Houston averaging near a double-double if you ignore the game they got their asses kicked & the whole team put up single digits & Montejiunas is widely considered to be far inferior to Valanciunas and is far behind him on the depth chart of their own national youth & adult national team. I know that isn't definitive, but it's all we got at this point NBA wise haha. Everything I've read though has pointed to Torotno feeling like they have a gem in this kid, and definitely plan on starting him at Center alongside Bargnani for years to come. I predict him at 10-12ppg, 10-11reb, 2-3 ast (he's a gifted passer when he has talent around him), 0.5stl, 1.5-2blks.

Edited by krupocin, 18 July 2012 - 05:13 PM.

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#7 SundayKindofLove

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 07:11 PM

Word is that this guy is the real deal and should form a sick front line with Bargnani, especially considering they have very complimentary skill sets, and are both European so they can help peel each other's skinny jeans & Uggz off at the end of the day ;) Actually though, he is now a true 7'0" with a 7'4" wingspan & 9'4" standing reach - he actually grew an inch after being drafted kind of like Paul George last year.

All kidding aside though, I always read up on Euro lottery picks since I love the whole "unknown" aspect, & I've read a report on this guy that said if he played in the USA he might have gone as high as #2 overall in his draft and that he has the tools to be a star in the NBA - it's just up to him at this point.

He is often compared to Enes Kanter being in the same class, but I think they are actually quite different. Kanter is more offensive minded & although huge, is still a little smaller than Valanciunas height/length wise. Valanciunas is actually the anti-Euro European player, being known for his grit & defensive prowess more than anything else. He is solid offensively w/ flashes of brilliance at times, but often prefers to defer to others, which is why I think Toronto is really the best place for him. While some of the other lottery teams that year needed all the offensive help they can get, Toronto's current starting roster (Bargnani, DeRozan, Ross/Fields, Lowry/Calderon, w/ Kleiza and Johnson off the pine) they couldn't be more starved for a guy like Valanciunas.

Also, it's worth noting, his fellow countryman Montejiunas (sp??) has been tearing it up in the summer league for Houston averaging near a double-double if you ignore the game they got their asses kicked & the whole team put up single digits & Montejiunas is widely considered to be far inferior to Valanciunas and is far behind him on the depth chart of their own national youth & adult national team. I know that isn't definitive, but it's all we got at this point NBA wise haha. Everything I've read though has pointed to Torotno feeling like they have a gem in this kid, and definitely plan on starting him at Center alongside Bargnani for years to come. I predict him at 10-12ppg, 10-11reb, 2-3 ast (he's a gifted passer when he has talent around him), 0.5stl, 1.5-2blks.


Nice analysis. I would also like to add that his FT % is quite high and I believe hovers in the 80% + range.
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#8 Warno

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 08:19 PM

Those predictions look pretty high to me, I can't see him averaging that for the season....

Aaron Gray will be the starter to begin the season - Coach Casey has been clear on that a number of times. I think it will take some time for Jonas to get into the NBA groove, I want him to start but can't see it happening unless the team is terrible to start off the year or if there is are injuries. Casey also stated that they would start Amir over him.

I think he will also have some trouble staying on the court when he gets on it. In Lithuania's Olympic qualifying game against Puerto Rico he fouled out in 6 minutes. He is aggressive on both sides of the court which is refreshing to see but it will lead to a lot of calls against him.

I want Raptor fans to be patient with the guy, it is going to take some time adjusting to the NBA. The media/coaching staff has put a ton of pressure on him (Casey said at worst he will be Joakim Noah) .

Edited by Warno, 18 July 2012 - 08:20 PM.


#9 jayreyd

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 08:37 PM

Yeah I'm excited to have him come over. People were hating cus he was only playing against the under 18's but if his game continues to improve and it translates to the nba it looks like the kid can ball. Appears to be the perfect compliment to Bargs' game. on paper his game looks real legit.
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#10 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:09 PM

tough to project and predict a double double for this dude. There are like a handful of players in the NBA that average a double double
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#11 nickalero99

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:24 PM

tough to project and predict a double double for this dude. There are like a handful of players in the NBA that average a double double


He generally has been around 8 and not on the type of minutes he will get as an NBA starter. I think 8 is reasonable which is where I have him ONCE he is a starter. I trust Warno in regards to the Raps over about anyone so I believe that Gray starts the season as the starting C. Jonas will take that job within a month based on all the reports that I have read. He has been viewed as the best player at tournaments that US under-18 played in as well. Clearly he's not just putting up stats because he is getting big minutes in Europe. Young guys actually fight a bigger uphill battle for time there.

Averaging a double-double, unlikely I totally agree. Putting up something that is remotely close and being a value near the end of drafts in redraft leagues? Absolutely. I took him in the second round of my dynasty rookie draft last year because I had heard a lot of great things that had he been coming to the league would have been taken after Irving and Williams. This year only Davis would have been taken over him by most scouts accounts.

I will alter my original projection based on Warno giving some Raps wisdom. From December on 10-8-1.5

Edit: Meant December not November.

Edited by nickalero99, 18 July 2012 - 09:28 PM.


#12 His Dudeness

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:34 PM

love this kids potential. just watched his highlight reel. definitely a gritty ballplayer. will surely target him in the late rounds.

#13 Warno

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 11:03 PM

He generally has been around 8 and not on the type of minutes he will get as an NBA starter. I think 8 is reasonable which is where I have him ONCE he is a starter. I trust Warno in regards to the Raps over about anyone so I believe that Gray starts the season as the starting C. Jonas will take that job within a month based on all the reports that I have read. He has been viewed as the best player at tournaments that US under-18 played in as well. Clearly he's not just putting up stats because he is getting big minutes in Europe. Young guys actually fight a bigger uphill battle for time there.

Averaging a double-double, unlikely I totally agree. Putting up something that is remotely close and being a value near the end of drafts in redraft leagues? Absolutely. I took him in the second round of my dynasty rookie draft last year because I had heard a lot of great things that had he been coming to the league would have been taken after Irving and Williams. This year only Davis would have been taken over him by most scouts accounts.

I will alter my original projection based on Warno giving some Raps wisdom. From December on 10-8-1.5

Edit: Meant December not November.


He was named the MVP of the FIBA U-19 in 2011, he averaged something like 23/14/3 blk/ 60%/80%. He had a monster game against the US too (30/15/4), it was actually a pretty excited game to watch.

I hope you are right about taking over the starting spot that soon, I would love that. Your prediction looks a lot more realistic to me.

Edited by Warno, 18 July 2012 - 11:03 PM.


#14 krupocin

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 04:37 PM

I'm sure Aaron Gray will start to start the season if that is what Casey said, but I'd assume it will be just like other Aaron Gray starts where he plays a total of 10 minutes a game even though he is out there to begin it. Simply put, Valanciunas is to talented to not earn significant minutes on this roster.

As for my stat predictions, I should've been more clear, those were predictions based on him starting (I didn't know Gray was penciled in as the starter - since that defies all logic haha!!) and also it was where I thought he would be at the end of the year, once he got used to the NBA pace & fouling, etc, it's my fault for not stating that, but I think he could definitely be around 10ppg 10reb 2ast 0.5stl 1.5blk once he figures out how to stay on the floor. I think he is talented enough to do it from the start, but fouls will limit that at 1st, but once he figures out how to stay on, really, who's gonna bump him off?? I know very few average a double double in this league of ours, but just following this guy's career & looking at how he plays, I think he'll be able to do it very early on, especially because of how weak the rest of the Toronto team is when it comes to rebounding, not to mention the overall lack of quality defnsive big men in general at this stage of NBA history. If anything, I think 10ppg is the part he'll have trouble hitting out of the 2, not 10reb, & the reason I bring this up, is that someone who can average 10reb & around 1.5-2blk is very valuable in fantasy regardless of their point totals.
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#15 ballsohard

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 04:40 PM

Aaron Gray is starting? For real?

Like krupocin said, I think this is one of those cases where he's a starter by name only. I doubt he's going to be out there for 20-30 minutes.

#16 Warno

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Posted 19 July 2012 - 05:40 PM

Aaron Gray is starting? For real?

Like krupocin said, I think this is one of those cases where he's a starter by name only. I doubt he's going to be out there for 20-30 minutes.



As of right now Gray is the starter, here is a quote from Casey in his most recent interview with a Toronto based radio station about Jonas starting (before Gray was re-signed):

At some point… Now to say that he’s gonna come in here and take over the starting position early — I want him to earn it… Someday, he’s gonna be our starting center — I don’t know if Day One, I don’t know if Aaron Gray — hopefully, Aaron Gray, we’ll re-sign him as a free agent, or Amir Johnson playing the five, those guys may start out that way. But sooner or later, he’s got the talent and skill and ability to be our starting center. And I hope that he’s improved and he keeps on working this summer so when he comes in, he just kicks everybody’s butt, and takes over the starting center position and keeps it from Day One. But in reality, he’s probably going to be backing up one of our guys until he earns it and until he learns the nuances of the NBA.



Bargnani is pretty much guaranteed 35+ minutes if he is healthy, Gray will get about 15.

That leaves 46 minutes/game between the two front court spots - Amir, Ed Davis, Jonas and Quincy Acy will all be competing for them. Apparently the coaching staff has been very impressed with the work that Ed Davis has put in over the summer as well so we will see how it plays out.

#17 Warno

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Posted 25 July 2012 - 05:47 PM



The dunk is nice but the best thing about the clip is how well he seems to run the floor.

Then again, the game was against Iceland :lol:

#18 krupocin

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Posted 26 July 2012 - 12:23 AM

The dunk is nice but the best thing about the clip is how well he seems to run the floor.
Then again, the game was against Iceland :lol:


Wow that was sick!! I think the most interesting part about that video though, is that Iceland, a nation of 300,000, about the size of Stockton, CA or Plano, TX haha - has a national team that is put into the same competition as the rest of Europe. I mean considering basketball is probably their 10th popular sport after curling, wrestling, weight-lifting, hockey, soccer, and all the ice/outdoors, I'm shocked that they even field a team. That would be like being able to put together an internationally competing cricket team out of citizens from just Newark, NJ haha!!
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#19 TheOneAboveAll

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Posted 21 August 2012 - 05:48 PM

I'm excited and can't wait to see what the hype is all about this kid. I'd love to see if he has the skills to challenge Unibrow for the ROY award. Raptors are stacked w/ big men but if both Davis and Valanciunas are as good as advertised, we might see a Center version of Irving vs Rubio last year.

#20 binhdvu83

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Posted 21 August 2012 - 06:10 PM

That's probably expecting way too much of this guy. He barely got any playing time in the Olympics for whatever reasons. He will probably take a season or two to adjust to the NBA game like most European players.
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