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2013 Value Picks


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#1 Halo Fan

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 02:12 PM

For the diehard baseball heads, who do you have your sights on for next year's draft?


"Only boring people find baseball boring." ~ Peter Golenboch

"...the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." ~ Bill Veeck

"The last time Willie Mays dropped a pop fly he had a rattle in one hand and a bonnet on his head." ~ Jim Murray

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." ~ Rickey Henderson

"The difference between the old ballplayer and the new ballplayer is the jersey. The old ballplayer cared about the name on the front. The new ballplayer cares about the name on the back." ~ Steve Garvey

"If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out." ~ George Brett

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby

"Winning depends on where you put your priorities. It's usually best to put them over the fence." ~ Jason Giambi

#2 baltimore_boy

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 02:26 PM

Jeff Samardzija had one bad month this year while trying a new pitch. If you take out that motnh, he was more than solid. He's going to be underrated in drafts and is someone I am targeting.

I'm also going for Mike Minor. He had a tremendous second half and looked to turn a corner. He could have been fooling me, but he could finally be ready for that breakout year many thought would happen a year or two ago.
Bring back Ray!

#3 ComericanPie

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 02:54 PM

I'm also targeting those two pitchers, along with V-Mart and McCann't Hit a Lick.

#4 jb_power

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 03:09 PM

C - J.Lucroy, S.Perez, Y.Grandal
1B - P.Goldschmidt, F.Freeman, I.Davis
2B - R.Weeks, N.Walker, C.Utley
3B - M.Prado, P.Sandoval, T.Frasier
SS - A.Escobar, E.Aybar, T.Tulo (her groin will be fine ... she says)
CF - D.Jennings, C.Gomez, D.Fowler (finally)
OF - J.Ellsbury, J.Upton, J.Ruggiano, M.Morse

#5 parrothead

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 05:23 PM

View PostHalo Fan, on 09 October 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

For the diehard baseball heads, who do you have your sights on for next year's draft?
So usually in our auction, my target is value.  Where can I get value?  I think this changes somewhat for Roto vs. Head to Head.  But there are some categories which generally there will be some good value:

1. Injuries - owners get frustrated by player getting hurt, non owners look at overall stats see the drop and devalue a bit or dont want all together:  Tulo, Ellsbury, Votto, Gardner, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bautista, Longo, Morrow.  Im sure Im forgetting others, but this is a good start.

2. Perceived Down Years - Guys who had massive projections put on them who perhaps werent as bad, especially season long as some might think - especially if H2H guys are driving the rankings, can see some roto value here: Wieters, Gordon, J. Upton, Cliff Lee, Zack Grienke.  Though not a star, Coco Crisp can fall into this category too.

3. Annual Underappreciated Guys - These are generally not the superstar and they are not the flashy young 20 gonna be next superstar, but guys who usually year in and year out put up the kinds of years you need from your support guys and they are usually somewhat undervalued:  Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, Austin Jackson (in that lineup, solid 100 runs easy).  

4. Big Down Year drops value, you like em for Bounceback: Drew Stubbs, Eric Hosmer.

Others who maybe have turned the corner:
Lorenzo Cain KC - had pretty solid numbers for sub 250 at bats.
Alejandro DeAza CWS - Not a superstar, but cheap source of 25+ bags who wont kill you power wise with sub 5 HR.
Tyler Colvin COL Put up really solid sub 500AB season in Denver, gives you sneaky bags too for 1B eligible.
Todd Frazier CIN - Good power and numbers sub 500AB, should be fulltime next year in some capacity (probably 3B)
Brandon Belt SF Numbers arent massive, but watching him a lot on my team.
Mike Minor P ATL - already mentioned.

5. The other value Ive noticed in recent years is that tier of pitchers just under the elite guys.  I think because of the success so many young guys are having (especially in keeper leagues where these guys are had on the cheap) I think owners think they will get one superstar frontline elite guy, then value the rest, as a result the Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Zack Grienke level I think overall is undervalued.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#6 parrothead

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 02:28 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 09 October 2012 - 02:26 PM, said:

Jeff Samardzija had one bad month this year while trying a new pitch. If you take out that motnh, he was more than solid. He's going to be underrated in drafts and is someone I am targeting.

I'm also going for Mike Minor. He had a tremendous second half and looked to turn a corner. He could have been fooling me, but he could finally be ready for that breakout year many thought would happen a year or two ago.
I wish Samardzija had like 25 less K's and about 3 less starts.  I think the 180K's will get him high enough on league leader lists that he will start to get on the radar of even the most basic of preppers.  He is the classic example of a guy who if you drafted in January to mid February you could get at a much better value, but as all the "experts" start to release their sleeper lists and such, I expect the JS drums to be beating pretty loudly.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#7 elrey

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 08:46 AM

The two starters I'm definitely targeting next year are the aforementioned Jeff Samardzija and Brett Anderson. Samardzija was awesome the whole year besides that terrible month where he tried throwing a curveball instead of a slider. And Brett Anderson is a bonafide ace when he's healthy. Hopefully he can pitch 200 innings next year.

#8 parrothead

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 02:40 PM

View Postelrey, on 11 October 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

The two starters I'm definitely targeting next year are the aforementioned Jeff Samardzija and Brett Anderson. Samardzija was awesome the whole year besides that terrible month where he tried throwing a curveball instead of a slider. And Brett Anderson is a bonafide ace when he's healthy. Hopefully he can pitch 200 innings next year.
Anderson will be interesting because of the injury factor, although Game 3 will certainly increase his value, but I still think the relatively low amount of innings over the last two years will devalue him.  Samardzija though will be hyped as sleeper on every list out there and probably overvalued by mid March.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#9 Halo Fan

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 02:52 PM

I think Rutledge will probably hit a few "sleeper" lists. I also like Ruggiano, as someone also mentioned.
"Only boring people find baseball boring." ~ Peter Golenboch

"...the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." ~ Bill Veeck

"The last time Willie Mays dropped a pop fly he had a rattle in one hand and a bonnet on his head." ~ Jim Murray

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." ~ Rickey Henderson

"The difference between the old ballplayer and the new ballplayer is the jersey. The old ballplayer cared about the name on the front. The new ballplayer cares about the name on the back." ~ Steve Garvey

"If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out." ~ George Brett

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby

"Winning depends on where you put your priorities. It's usually best to put them over the fence." ~ Jason Giambi

#10 Zombies

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 04:12 PM

Homer Bailey could be ready to take the next step...He finished the season with a flurry, including a no hitter, and was dominant in his playoff start...

#11 dsw283

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 04:50 PM

This is going to sound a little silly but Pujols anywhere past the 5th pick, I feel, is great value.  Even with him having a down year, there are very few who are drafted in the first round that actually put up top 20 hitter #'s.  Pujol's does it every year.  This kind of consistency is over-looked quite often in Fantasy, as players tend to draft the sexier picks.  He may be declining but he's still out there almost every game and produces top 20 #'s.

Same goes for Holliday, he is a top 20 hitter every year and normally goes somewhere in the 3rd round, which should likely go earlier.

Wright, and R. Zimmerman,  I wouldn't draft them any earlier than the 5th round, as I feel there will be better value in rounds 2-4. But,  I have a feeling one or both of those guy's will be there still, even possibly the 6th round.  They have the potential to out produce their ADP more than most.

Butler is another who is normally under-valued.  Not sure if he's eligible at 1st in which leagues, as all leagues have different requirements, but definitely worth a pick as he probably will go on the verge of rounds 5-6.

I know those are some higher ranked players but taking advantage of these types of players, I've always felt, has a bigger influence on your season than those later in your drafts.

#12 parrothead

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:55 AM

View PostZombies, on 11 October 2012 - 04:12 PM, said:

Homer Bailey could be ready to take the next step...He finished the season with a flurry, including a no hitter, and was dominant in his playoff start...
He may very well, but I will tell you as someone who bought on this before, its not his first time doing it (with exception of no no). 2009, his last 9 Starts that year, he won 6 games lost 1, 7 of the 9 starts he had more K than innings, 7 of the 9 starts he gave up 2 runs or less.  I realize he's been hurt and such, but he has had some last 6 week glimpses before, just FYI.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#13 parrothead

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:57 AM

View Postdsw283, on 11 October 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

This is going to sound a little silly but Pujols anywhere past the 5th pick, I feel, is great value.  Even with him having a down year, there are very few who are drafted in the first round that actually put up top 20 hitter #'s.  Pujol's does it every year.  This kind of consistency is over-looked quite often in Fantasy, as players tend to draft the sexier picks.  He may be declining but he's still out there almost every game and produces top 20 #'s.

Same goes for Holliday, he is a top 20 hitter every year and normally goes somewhere in the 3rd round, which should likely go earlier.

Wright, and R. Zimmerman,  I wouldn't draft them any earlier than the 5th round, as I feel there will be better value in rounds 2-4. But,  I have a feeling one or both of those guy's will be there still, even possibly the 6th round.  They have the potential to out produce their ADP more than most.

Butler is another who is normally under-valued.  Not sure if he's eligible at 1st in which leagues, as all leagues have different requirements, but definitely worth a pick as he probably will go on the verge of rounds 5-6.

I know those are some higher ranked players but taking advantage of these types of players, I've always felt, has a bigger influence on your season than those later in your drafts.
Butler got to 20 games at 1B this year, which is in most leagues the magic number for position elgibility moving on to the next season.  I think a lot of his undervalue is because he gets called early in auctions and probably lower ADP because people dont want to tie up the DH spot early, especially in an auction, where it can limit your ability to bid on guys, call guys out, etc.  I suspect this year, because he will be 1B eligible, especially with some disappointments and question marks at 1B, he will see his highest auction pricing and ADP of his career.

Edited by parrothead, 12 October 2012 - 09:59 AM.

Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#14 dsw283

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:06 PM

View Postparrothead, on 12 October 2012 - 09:57 AM, said:

View Postdsw283, on 11 October 2012 - 04:50 PM, said:

This is going to sound a little silly but Pujols anywhere past the 5th pick, I feel, is great value.  Even with him having a down year, there are very few who are drafted in the first round that actually put up top 20 hitter #'s.  Pujol's does it every year.  This kind of consistency is over-looked quite often in Fantasy, as players tend to draft the sexier picks.  He may be declining but he's still out there almost every game and produces top 20 #'s.

Same goes for Holliday, he is a top 20 hitter every year and normally goes somewhere in the 3rd round, which should likely go earlier.

Wright, and R. Zimmerman,  I wouldn't draft them any earlier than the 5th round, as I feel there will be better value in rounds 2-4. But,  I have a feeling one or both of those guy's will be there still, even possibly the 6th round.  They have the potential to out produce their ADP more than most.

Butler is another who is normally under-valued.  Not sure if he's eligible at 1st in which leagues, as all leagues have different requirements, but definitely worth a pick as he probably will go on the verge of rounds 5-6.

I know those are some higher ranked players but taking advantage of these types of players, I've always felt, has a bigger influence on your season than those later in your drafts.
Butler got to 20 games at 1B this year, which is in most leagues the magic number for position elgibility moving on to the next season.  I think a lot of his undervalue is because he gets called early in auctions and probably lower ADP because people dont want to tie up the DH spot early, especially in an auction, where it can limit your ability to bid on guys, call guys out, etc.  I suspect this year, because he will be 1B eligible, especially with some disappointments and question marks at 1B, he will see his highest auction pricing and ADP of his career.

Possibly but more than likely you can still get him a lot lower than where he should go.

#15 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 02:10 AM

SP: Mike Minor, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, A.J. Griffin, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Michael Pineda, Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Doug Fister, Zack Wheeler

C: Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, V-Mart, Carlos Santana, Travis d'Arnaud

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Ike Davis, Billy Butler, Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Moss, Freddie Freeman, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Eric Hosmer

2B: Josh Rutledge, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Chase Utley, Neil Walker, Jedd Gyorko (if he plays there)

SS: Josh Rutledge, Andrelton Simmons

3B: Brett Lawrie, David Freese, Will Middlebrooks, Jedd Gyorko (if he plays there), Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Nolan Arenado

OF: Brandon Moss, Carlos Gomez, Desmond Jennings, Yoenis Cespedes, Oscar Taveras, Corey Hart, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Starling Marte, Dexter Fowler, Adam Eaton, Lucas Duda, Nick Swisher

Edited by Posting In The Clutch, 13 October 2012 - 02:17 AM.

I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#16 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 02:25 AM

Oh yeah, and Wil Myers.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#17 Theoneupper

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 02:40 AM

VMart and Carlos Santana.
Goldy and Hosmer.
Ill take another chance on Tulo, Longo, and Ells. If all three end up playing a full season were talking easy championship.
Jason Kipnis. Hopefully he wont fall off next year and put in a complete season.

#18 baltimore_boy

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 09:37 AM

This may not be a a favorite pick, but Ryan Flaherty could be a sneaky pick at the end of a draft next year if given the starting second base job. His bat came alive at the end of the year and he has the always valued position eligibility.
Bring back Ray!

#19 jaymaynard

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:25 AM

It's really tough to say until the major sites put out their preseason lists since ADP is so driven by them

#20 Ben Edelman

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:17 AM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 13 October 2012 - 02:10 AM, said:

SP: Mike Minor, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, A.J. Griffin, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke, Michael Pineda, Chris Archer, Gerrit Cole, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Doug Fister, Zack Wheeler

C: Yasmani Grandal, Salvador Perez, V-Mart, Carlos Santana, Travis d'Arnaud

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Ike Davis, Billy Butler, Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Moss, Freddie Freeman, Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Eric Hosmer

2B: Josh Rutledge, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, Chase Utley, Neil Walker, Jedd Gyorko (if he plays there)

SS: Josh Rutledge, Andrelton Simmons

3B: Brett Lawrie, David Freese, Will Middlebrooks, Jedd Gyorko (if he plays there), Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Nolan Arenado

OF: Brandon Moss, Carlos Gomez, Desmond Jennings, Yoenis Cespedes, Oscar Taveras, Corey Hart, Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Starling Marte, Dexter Fowler, Adam Eaton, Lucas Duda, Nick Swisher

Good list, but a few of these guys were so good in 2012 that I wouldn't expect them to fall far enough to count as value.  Pedro Alvarez hit 30 HR, so did Ike Davis.  And a few guys were just awesome in limited playing time like Rizzo and Rutledge.  In fact, I expect them to be overvalued next year based on small sample size, not the other way around.

SP: Beachy and Luebke in keeper leagues only.  They will come back mid-season, and the Kris Medlen's of the world don't happen very often.  Love Cliff Lee, but smart owners will realize his 2012 was just bad luck.  I'll add Ted Lilly and Anibal Sanchez to the list.  Anibal is too young and too talented; his September is closer to his long-term potential.  I'll take a risk and add Bumgarner as the pitcher most likely to jump from tier 2 to tier 1 next year.

1B: Freddie Freeman tops my list.  Good, getting better, still ridiculously young.  I would take him over Ryan Howard in an instant.

2B: Neil Walker is just perennially undervalued.

3B: Aramis is another perennial undervalue.

SS: Andrelton Simmons can't hit.  Zack Cozart can.  Add Starlin Castro to the list.  Young, getting better.  His slump that left him at .280 will scare some owners off.  Walk away with .290 / 15 / 85 / 25.  At least as good as Brandon Phillips.

OF: Carlos Gomez?  Really?  He's top of my overvalued list.  Fluke year -- he has no chance to hit this many HR again unless he is on the 'roids.  Love the Adam Eaton and Starling Marte picks.  Cespedes too -- he was overshadowed by Trout, but had a really solid rookie season.

RP: The Beard.  Clearly, Bochy doesn't trust anyone else as a full-time closer.  David Hernandez.  Dave Robertson comeback year.

Edited by Ben Edelman, 13 October 2012 - 11:19 AM.

FRBRL 1995-present.  12-team 4x4 Roto auction keeper, NL-only.
C: Mesoraco, Bethancourt
1/3: Rojas, Frandsen, Rendon
2/S: Wong, Scutaro, Tejada
O/U: Yelich, Maybin, Quentin, Alcantara, C. Ross, Boujos
SP: Strasburg, Morton, Nelson
RP: Clippard, N. Ramirez, Mejia, Storen, Rondon, Avilan, Dice-K
Min: Bryant, Crawford, Piscotty, K. Parker, T. Jordan, R. Montero, Tabata, M. Gonzales, Ruf
DL: Fujikawa, Kelly, Erlin
Yeah, I'm dumping this year.