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2013 Value Picks


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#181 Wombat

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM

Willingham and Adam Laroche are going way late.  Both guys are perenially underrated.  

Aramis Ramirez is another guy that no one ever likes for some reason, I can never understand why.

#182 klove42

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 08:43 PM

View PostWombat, on 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM, said:

Willingham and Adam Laroche are going way late.  Both guys are perenially underrated.  

Aramis Ramirez is another guy that no one ever likes for some reason, I can never understand why.

Aramis reminds me of Matt Holliday. His stock is lower then his actual performance because he just isn't really a sexy or high upside pick. You know what they provide. Also people are waiting for their down year to come it has to happen eventually.

Edited by klove42, 26 February 2013 - 08:43 PM.

No Days Off

#183 uspsjeter2

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Posted 26 February 2013 - 09:48 PM

View Postklove42, on 26 February 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

View PostWombat, on 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM, said:

Willingham and Adam Laroche are going way late.  Both guys are perenially underrated.  

Aramis Ramirez is another guy that no one ever likes for some reason, I can never understand why.

Aramis reminds me of Matt Holliday. His stock is lower then his actual performance because he just isn't really a sexy or high upside pick. You know what they provide. Also people are waiting for their down year to come it has to happen eventually.
I'll throw a little fly in the Aramis ointment:
4th straight year of big 1H/2H splits.
Has needed more AB's each year to increase his HR, so no skills growth.
Hit .403 in the 2nd half vs. lefties.
My guess is this year the naysayers finally get it right.
"A Humble Man of Grace and Dignity. A Captain Who Led by Example. Proud of the Pinstripes Tradition and Dedicated to the Pursuit of Excellence. A Yankee Forever."  Don Mattingly's plaque in Monument Park

#184 cornerback

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:17 AM

brandon moss, nunez (tex out, jeter a ? and youk always an injury concern), ricky romero, markakis, reimold.

#185 Damn Yankee

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:38 PM

I like Aoki Norichika...not a sexy pick but I like the value.
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#186 uspsjeter2

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:44 PM

View PostDamn Yankee, on 08 March 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

I like Aoki Norichika...not a sexy pick but I like the value.
I'm pretty sure you have his names listed backwards, but I agree with the sentiment.... :D
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#187 Halo Fan

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 02:38 PM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 08 March 2013 - 12:44 PM, said:

View PostDamn Yankee, on 08 March 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

I like Aoki Norichika...not a sexy pick but I like the value.
I'm pretty sure you have his names listed backwards, but I agree with the sentiment.... :D

Thank you...I was wondering why it seemed like he had typed his name wrong.
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#188 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:15 AM

View PostWombat, on 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM, said:

Willingham and Adam Laroche are going way late.  Both guys are perenially underrated.  

Aramis Ramirez is another guy that no one ever likes for some reason, I can never understand why.

LaRoche went undrafted in my league last season. 14 teams too. We didn't have true FAAB last year (Yahoo! fixed/adjusted their FAAB process this year finally, though!), but for the first few days after the draft, everyone is on waivers. I think I placed a $2 or $3 dollar bid on LaRoche after his hot start (had 3 or 4 HR right out of the box and looked like he would produce all year in my eyes) just to make sure to get him, but no one else had tried to claim him anyway! He still seems to be going overlooked or extremely late in drafts and mocks this spring, and even in smaller leagues or mocks I have looked up, which I just don't understand much.

He is a slow starter.... or has been historically. I would think more people would remember him after last season + the off-season w/ his contract negotiations (and the gold glove award-- he was on of the NL's best overall 1B in general last season really). But if people want to remember him for the slow starter he has been for most of his career, that's fine-- I'll try to get him cheap again.

Ditto to ARam, and last year in particular-- didn't he only bat about .220 through May? That would probably be why. Managers hate players who get out of the get slow. Myself, I'll wait on that extra month or so on a player before cutting ties because it can pay-off in a huge way sometimes. He wound up having (probably) the finest season of his career when all was said and done. I love him and you're right, people do forget about him... I always avoided him when he was in Chicago, but I also see other people devalue him and it has been that way for a few years now. Good call on him, even if he is a slightly bigger name. I forgot he was 9th in MVP voting and lead the NL in doubles last year.

Willingham too... I don't know why, but you're completely right on all 3 of these players. They all had great seasons last year and no real major red flags, but no one seems to be interested.... hm

Edited by Nick Mitchell, 09 March 2013 - 09:21 AM.

Team #1:
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Raul Ibanez, UTL Eric Chavez
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, 1B James Loney, 3B Juan Franncisco, OF Oswalda Arcia, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (8- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, R.A. Dickey, SP Johnny Cueto, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lucas Duda, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lorenzo Cain
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B Lyle Overbay, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders LF,CF,RF Justin Ruggiano
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Jose Fernandez (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP), P Cory Gearrin (RP)
BN: Mike Minor (SP), Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin

#189 uspsjeter2

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:25 AM

As someone who perennially hasn't been afraid to wait for and ride out both ARam and .LaRoche, this is the year I'm jumping off the train. Perhaps others were just early to the party. I'm believing age and natural regression will firmly take hold. I am personally happier giving up on those type of players a year early than a year late. They do, for whatever reason, have some stigmas attached to them.
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#190 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:26 AM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 26 February 2013 - 09:48 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 26 February 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

View PostWombat, on 26 February 2013 - 08:41 PM, said:

Willingham and Adam Laroche are going way late.  Both guys are perenially underrated.  

Aramis Ramirez is another guy that no one ever likes for some reason, I can never understand why.

Aramis reminds me of Matt Holliday. His stock is lower then his actual performance because he just isn't really a sexy or high upside pick. You know what they provide. Also people are waiting for their down year to come it has to happen eventually.
I'll throw a little fly in the Aramis ointment:
4th straight year of big 1H/2H splits.
Has needed more AB's each year to increase his HR, so no skills growth.
Hit .403 in the 2nd half vs. lefties.
My guess is this year the naysayers finally get it right.

See, this is my fear with some players too, and maybe Aramis fell under that category. I had been waiting for him to fall off of a cliff in Chicago for his last 2 years there, too, and was happy he didn't stay on board for 16mil. But his numbers from last year in the second half were pretty insane. He did have (statistically, and defensively as well) the best season of his career too, I would suggest (it's fair to argue, although I do not have some of his other years in front of me-- but with his D being much better last year, I think as a player he had his best season once May rolled over and he started to hit).

I really didn't see many of his AB last season either. When in Chicago, he would go through stretches where he looked awful, and I would see it as I could catch almost every game of the year back then because time allowed. He scares me, but think about how many years people were writing Chipper off. He still remained productive, even over the past two seasons in spurts here or there (Chipper is one of a kind, but still).
Team #1:
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Raul Ibanez, UTL Eric Chavez
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, 1B James Loney, 3B Juan Franncisco, OF Oswalda Arcia, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (8- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, R.A. Dickey, SP Johnny Cueto, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lucas Duda, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lorenzo Cain
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B Lyle Overbay, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders LF,CF,RF Justin Ruggiano
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Jose Fernandez (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP), P Cory Gearrin (RP)
BN: Mike Minor (SP), Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin

#191 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:32 AM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 09 March 2013 - 09:25 AM, said:

As someone who perennially hasn't been afraid to wait for and ride out both ARam and .LaRoche, this is the year I'm jumping off the train. Perhaps others were just early to the party. I'm believing age and natural regression will firmly take hold. I am personally happier giving up on those type of players a year early than a year late. They do, for whatever reason, have some stigmas attached to them.

I'm more keen on LaRoche than Aramis, after you posted those numbers. I had overlooked your reply before.

My major hesitance was always for the fact he played for the Cubs. I am weird and I don't like owning players from my hometown/favorite team. I love following the Sox' fantasy players who I seem to own every year (Konerko being another guy, who also falls under the category of players who could fall off the cliff at any moment, but seem to cling on every season regardless). But Cubs players... not so much. I do remember periods of Aramis that frustrated me to death, and that wasn't even as an owner.

So I guess I realize why I have swayed from him. But I think LaRoche could have another year or two of solid production. When Tex is gong for $35 in auction leagues still.... and he seems to be in a couple, depending on size/budget... just saying.

uspsjeter, assuming you're a Yankees fan, what would you expect from a guy like Tex compared to LaRoche (besides a major advantage to Tex w/ ribbies)? I'm just curious. I also would be interested to hear what you foresee LaRoche's numbers looking like. He is a guy I was/am high on, but I do see and agree with your point. I kind of never know which players are truly *that* close to being irrelevant or if there is any juice left... because some guys can stretch things longer than others, even if it is just as a plug-in for daily lineup leagues (Chipper helped me out in that regard a bit, as I mentioned him above for one example) when your starter is sitting.
Team #1:
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Raul Ibanez, UTL Eric Chavez
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, 1B James Loney, 3B Juan Franncisco, OF Oswalda Arcia, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (8- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, R.A. Dickey, SP Johnny Cueto, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lucas Duda, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lorenzo Cain
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B Lyle Overbay, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders LF,CF,RF Justin Ruggiano
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Jose Fernandez (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP), P Cory Gearrin (RP)
BN: Mike Minor (SP), Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin

#192 ballfan4141

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 09:57 AM

laroche went undrated in 14 team league? wow.

Edited by The Harsh, 09 March 2013 - 10:02 AM.
Removed BC content.


#193 uspsjeter2

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 10:01 AM

Tex seems to be unwilling at this point to adjust to the shift. I foresee his BA to continue to plummet. I'm worried about RBI's for every player on the Yankees, I think they'll now struggle to even be a league-average offense, especially in April with 3 All-Stars out.
LaRoche definitely has a lot going for him with the Nats lineup. He certainly could produce 25 HR, 70 runs, 80 RBI, and like a .270 avg. And he'll provide value if he does that based on his draft/auction slot. The fact that he's had a major injury recently, he's walking a little less, striking out a little more, a bit below-average (for him) BABIP, just a lot of little things give me cause for concern. Does he start missing 10 games here or there for a nagging Hammy or wrist? I don't know but he's at an age where it's more likely, that I'm certain of.
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#194 yoda

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 10:12 AM

Josh Johnson's MDP is 116 right now, 29th SP overall.  Composite projection:
3.46 ERA, 11 W, 153 K, 1.22 WHIP

If fully healthy, that line is relatively conservative.  He had a terrible start but turned it around after the ASB.

Edited by yoda, 09 March 2013 - 10:15 AM.

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#195 ballfan4141

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 01:10 PM

teixeira is done. he is not going to be what he is used be.




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