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Nicolas Batum 2012-2013 Season Outlook


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#1 RapsnRox

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Posted 24 September 2012 - 10:17 PM

Seems everyone already expects him to breakout. He really beasted for a little while there, will that become more of the norm? What kinda averages are we expecting ?

#2 Heavy_Jon

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Posted 24 September 2012 - 10:52 PM

He's a very good player, but the Blazers will be sorry for offering him that big paycheck. I think that he will pad his stats, but when it matters most he disapears from the game. I've seen it against some of the best defenses, and as No2 option for France, even worse...
For me he's a better fantasy player than a "real player". He will have games where he scores 25 w/ 5 3s, but wil have alot of 6 pts games. But he gives you something. He's talented, no doubt, but not as a franchise player, or even a No2 option on a contender. One of the most annoying things about his game is his absurd tendency to settle for jumpshots, when he could try to plow his way to the bucket, b/c, you know, he's a physical freak.
I like him, but i don't think that he can give that "jump" to Elite status (maybe because he's not mentally strong).

PS. I hope, by the end of season, that I'm wrong.

#3 ballsohard

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 12:23 AM

He's a very good player, but the Blazers will be sorry for offering him that big paycheck. I think that he will pad his stats, but when it matters most he disapears from the game. I've seen it against some of the best defenses, and as No2 option for France, even worse...
For me he's a better fantasy player than a "real player". He will have games where he scores 25 w/ 5 3s, but wil have alot of 6 pts games. But he gives you something. He's talented, no doubt, but not as a franchise player, or even a No2 option on a contender. One of the most annoying things about his game is his absurd tendency to settle for jumpshots, when he could try to plow his way to the bucket, b/c, you know, he's a physical freak.
I like him, but i don't think that he can give that "jump" to Elite status (maybe because he's not mentally strong).

PS. I hope, by the end of season, that I'm wrong.


First of all, you seem to be viewing pay check volume based of a player's offensive tendencies. Just because Batum is inconsistent on offense doesn't mean he's not worth $12M. Fact of the matter is that this guy still has untapped offensive potential combined with proven top-level defense. He's shut down Kobe, Lebron, Wade, and anyone else you can name. And while his offense is inconsistent, the Blazers haven't ever really committed to him in the first place. With his increase in pay, I'd assume the Blazers are definitely finally looking at him as an important piece to the team. If so, he has a slick jump shot from both mid-range and beyond the arc, and has the athletic tools to attack the rim as you said. I'd definitely say he's worth $12M - perhaps even a bargain - considering what some other players are getting paid in the league.

At the same time, I understand your doubts because you're analyzing him on a jump to an elite level. In that case, you're definitely correct. He will never reach elite level in real life, but rather an incredibly important glue guy along the lines of Kirilenko. However, in fantasy, he certainly has the potential to be an elite fantasy contributor.

Edited by ballsohard, 25 September 2012 - 12:24 AM.


#4 teamshameless

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 12:35 AM

I think the AK comparison makes sense only I don't think he'll peak anywhere near where AK did. I know people love him and while I think claims that he's "shut down" Lebron etc are a bit of an exaggeration I think I high quality defender. The problem is that high quality defenders who don't score rarely make an impact in fantasy. I guess in 9 cat he could be a bigger deal because it rewards players who don't have the ball but I'd say his absolutely best case scenario would be top 35 and I think that is very unlikely. He's been going around 40 in most mocks I've seen and I think that things will have to go very well for him to justify that.

Again, 9cat maybe but in 8cat I just don't see it.
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#5 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 08:04 AM

I couldn't disagree with your statements below more. I actually think that Batum is rock solid number 3 player on a team and possibly even a number 2 option. When I consider if a player is a #1, 2, or 3 i consider the impact on BOTH ends of the court. Zero doubt that Batum is one of the better two way players in this league.

Nate McMillan hated him and was a grinch with his playing time. I see a lot of prime Shawn Marion and Rudy Gay upside in Batum is he gets the playing time. He shouldnt struggle in that department this year. I'd say he's a lock for 34 or 35 mins this year. The numbers he produces will justify his selection. 1-1-1 players just dont grow on the proverbial fantasy tree.

As far as his real life performance dude is the truth defending. His long arms and quick lateral movement makes it really difficult for opposing wing players to get to the rack. He is also really good off the ball blocking shots and helping to protect the paint. Whether he lives up to the contract I have no idea. However there are far far worse deals in NBA (past, present future)...........

He's a very good player, but the Blazers will be sorry for offering him that big paycheck. I think that he will pad his stats, but when it matters most he disapears from the game. I've seen it against some of the best defenses, and as No2 option for France, even worse...
For me he's a better fantasy player than a "real player". He will have games where he scores 25 w/ 5 3s, but wil have alot of 6 pts games. But he gives you something. He's talented, no doubt, but not as a franchise player, or even a No2 option on a contender. One of the most annoying things about his game is his absurd tendency to settle for jumpshots, when he could try to plow his way to the bucket, b/c, you know, he's a physical freak.
I like him, but i don't think that he can give that "jump" to Elite status (maybe because he's not mentally strong).

PS. I hope, by the end of season, that I'm wrong.


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#6 BoredSam

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Posted 25 September 2012 - 12:31 PM

Nate McMillan hated him and was a grinch with his playing time. I see a lot of prime Shawn Marion and Rudy Gay upside in Batum is he gets the playing time. He shouldnt struggle in that department this year. I'd say he's a lock for 34 or 35 mins this year. The numbers he produces will justify his selection. 1-1-1 players just dont grow on the proverbial fantasy tree.


I looked at Batums numbers from last season and thought to compare him to Marion when Marion was 23. Here's the results: http://bkref.com/tiny/FzSgU

Marion played so many more minutes that it's only fair to use the per 36 mpg numbers to compare them. It's no surprise that Marion is better across the board, he was a top 2 fantasy option along with KG during this timeframe. What's interesting though is the percentages are so close. All Batum needs now is a Nash level PG to get him open looks and to be the beneficiary of teams double-teaming LMA like they did w/ Amare :) Obviously Batum's ceiling is nowhere near Marion (Batum should have a higher PER this far into his career), but he is still a solid 1-1-1 guy with a few more years of getting better before he starts getting worse.
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#7 Slim Duncan

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 08:51 AM

Picked him 30th in my draft last night. Earlier than I wanted, but I was in the 2 spot, meaning I'd have waited 22 picks to get him on the turn. No way that was happening. He'll be a great top 40 player, who gets consistent production every night, in multiple categories. Did I overpay? Yeah, probably. But he's a perfect glue guy to have on a fantasy team.
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#8 tazdingo

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 11:22 AM

I still don't see how he'll outproduce guys like Rudy Gay in the end... I'm really not a fan of his game and this is coming from a Blazer fan...
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#9 det_tigers

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:48 PM

1-1-1 hard to argue with

#10 KDKD

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 05:22 PM

Yep, 1/1/1 is tough to pass up especially for someone you can slot into SG.
That said I still prefer Rudy, has always delivered for me in roto.
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#11 Don Andres

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Posted 27 October 2012 - 01:31 AM

i think he'll have a break-out year.

I was able to get him for $11 in my Auction Draft.

#12 ballsohard

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 11:39 PM

What did I say about my boy Batum???

:D

#13 Tarheels_2433

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 11:42 PM

This is finally the year.
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."

#14 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 11:49 PM

Sure Looks like it. The stars have aligned. He's got a dynamic PG and lethal big man to help free up open looks. We could be looking at Rudy Gay/vintage Matrix numbers this year. This team in general is going to be much improved and compete on a high level. I wouldnt be surprised if Batum flirted with all star game consideration.

This is finally the year.


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#15 Tarheels_2433

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Posted 31 October 2012 - 11:51 PM

Sure Looks like it. The stars have aligned. He's got a dynamic PG and lethal big man to help free up open looks. We could be looking at Rudy Gay/vintage Matrix numbers this year. This team in general is going to be much improved and compete on a high level. I wouldnt be surprised if Batum flirted with all star game consideration.


This is finally the year.


Yea, all things we've discussed over the years about Batum, it's going to be fun watching it finally come to fruition...
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."

#16 ballsohard

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 12:10 AM

And people called me crazy for thinking the Blazers got a bargain with his contract.

#17 HAK Devil

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 12:26 PM

Yep, Batum looked absolutely awesome and I think the biggest change is that he is looking to be more aggresive and be involved in the offense. He was practically screaming for the ball during that late Laker run where he shot a 3 on Metta's face for his 26th point. I am incredibly excited for him this year and am glad I have him on my team

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#18 ballsohard

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 01:32 PM

Yep, Batum looked absolutely awesome and I think the biggest change is that he is looking to be more aggresive and be involved in the offense. He was practically screaming for the ball during that late Laker run where he shot a 3 on Metta's face for his 26th point. I am incredibly excited for him this year and am glad I have him on my team


It wasn't a question of him upping his aggressiveness and intensity. POR simply needed to make him a centerpiece of the offense instead of being one of the last options on offense.

Very happy for Batum to finally be in a situation to blossom. Been a huge fan of his since his rookie year when he dominated Kobe on defense.

#19 UVA_Drew

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:50 PM

Can someone explain to me why I drafted Danny Granger over this guy?? Seriously, help me out here, haha.

Guy looked for real last night. And with the makeup of that team, I seem plenty more nights just like that in his future.

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#20 patentboy23

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 02:56 PM

I really hope Batum keeps killing it. I was almost regretting trading Paul George away for him upon hearing Granger being out indefinitely.

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