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Melky Cabrera 2013 Outlook


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#1 Suikoden

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 12:54 PM

Stacks on stacks on stacks.

Reyes
Melky
Lowrie
Bautista
Encarcion
Rasmus

Huge move, and despite last years 50 game suspension, he was a solid hitter prior to last year.
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Eric Hosmer 2B: Brad Miller SS: Owings 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Heyward OF: Myers
Util:  Jose Abreu Bench: Avila, Schoop, Solarte, Baez (NA)
SP: Homer Bailey SP: Shelby Miller RP: Rosenthal RP: Soria P: Motte, Broxton, Withrow, Storen, Allen, Webb
Bench: Pineda, Ryu, Stroman and Meyer (Both NA's)
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Mash Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- Braun, Harper, Werth Util- Melky Morse
Bench: Brad Miller, Hosmer, Hill, Solarte  NAs: Bryant and Springer
SPs:  Sale, Cain, Ventura, Hudson RPs:  Reed Balfour Papelbon Soria Bench: Ubaldo DL- Walker
Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth

#2 WahooManiac

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 01:55 PM

Tor is a monster now, id expect a solid season from the milk man. Be interesting to see how much was talent, and how much was PEDs
Good pitching will beat good hitting anytime, and vice versa.  -Bob Veale

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#3 Wrigley

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 01:59 PM

Not expecting anything too terribly special, but I could see him putting up a good 16 HR's and 80+ RBI. Very interested to see how he does off the performance enhancers. Won't be terrible, but certainly won't be having the kind of MVP-caliber season that he was early on last season.

#4 Suikoden

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Posted 17 November 2012 - 02:12 PM

Alomar and Carter were on a terrible team before getting traded to the Jays...16 80 and say 315 hitting is pretty darn good if he hits that (which he could).  I would say more like 10/70/305 which is still great for the Jays.
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Eric Hosmer 2B: Brad Miller SS: Owings 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Heyward OF: Myers
Util:  Jose Abreu Bench: Avila, Schoop, Solarte, Baez (NA)
SP: Homer Bailey SP: Shelby Miller RP: Rosenthal RP: Soria P: Motte, Broxton, Withrow, Storen, Allen, Webb
Bench: Pineda, Ryu, Stroman and Meyer (Both NA's)
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Mash Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- Braun, Harper, Werth Util- Melky Morse
Bench: Brad Miller, Hosmer, Hill, Solarte  NAs: Bryant and Springer
SPs:  Sale, Cain, Ventura, Hudson RPs:  Reed Balfour Papelbon Soria Bench: Ubaldo DL- Walker
Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth

#5 klove42

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 12:56 PM

I think this is a good move for Toronto, and even though he wont be on PED anymore, I think his power goes up in Toronto and he has a solid fantasy year
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#6 parrothead

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 01:15 PM

View PostSuikoden, on 17 November 2012 - 12:54 PM, said:

Stacks on stacks on stacks.

Reyes
Melky
Lowrie
Bautista
Encarcion
Rasmus

Huge move, and despite last years 50 game suspension, he was a solid hitter prior to last year.
That right there is the big question is when?  Do we believe that 2011 200 hit season in KC was clean?  If you look at the chain of events, he was lousy and out of shape in Atlanta in 2010, goes to KC and is in shape and put up great numbers, which to me is probably when he got on the PED, he started actually training which included some new regimen and PEDs.  In ATL he didnt look like he was working out at all, PED or NO PED, so the question is, can he work out naturally without PED?  Or is it all or nothing, is it ATL 2010 w/ no workout or PED only workout in KC and SF.  My guess is that he will feel he has something to prove and probably find that if you actually workout on pretty much the same regimine you did in KC and SF and use a bunch of natural supplements right up to the brink of legal use, you probably will find much of the same success you had, unfortunately with a lot of these guys, they never do that, they either do nothing OR everything including the illegal stuff.

I like him as a value guy, I will be looking for value stat fillers and he will for sure be a guy I will be targeting as a low-risk high reward type.  I have probably a 1/4 of my league are Giant fans and probably another 1/4 as NL West team fans all of whom likely will discredit the Melk Man due to the PED.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#7 Theoneupper

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Posted 26 November 2012 - 11:20 PM

Ill buy depending on how he shows up to Spring Training. He has the talent, but is terribly lazy. If he stays in shape i could see him being a contributor in fantasy.

#8 dzemens

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 09:26 AM

Id think he will show up motivated, he got caught using PED and despite the two year deal he cost himself a lot of money. Youve got to think hes looking to rebuild value at this point and maybe score one more big deal.
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#9 parrothead

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 01:34 PM

View PostTheoneupper, on 26 November 2012 - 11:20 PM, said:

Ill buy depending on how he shows up to Spring Training. He has the talent, but is terribly lazy. If he stays in shape i could see him being a contributor in fantasy.
That is the key and that is always what blows my mind is that it seems that guys go from being lazy to a workout regimen that includes PEDs, why not just see what you can do naturally working out hard to the border of the law with supplements, alternative regimine, etc.  I always remember listening to an interview with Steve Finley about his breakthrough, one offseason he started working with Marv Marinovich, it was all about core, flexibility, light weights, etc...nothing heavy was ever lifted and when he showed up for spring training, he was hitting balls further than he ever had in his life.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#10 archibjd

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Posted 27 November 2012 - 08:44 PM

View Postparrothead, on 26 November 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

Did Ryan Braun try and establish a fake website with a fake supplement to say this is what he took and that he is innocent?  Im not too detailed with both situations, but on the surface they didnt seem very similar.

I think you are getting lost in irrelevant detail. Both are very good PED hitters who've been caught using (that's the overriding similarity). I thought last year Ryan Braun would experience a performance drop-off due to not using PEDs after getting caught, but he obviously kept using and had a phenomenal year. My point is that I think the better assumption is that Melky keeps using, even if he goes into spring training with the mindset that he won't use (most cheaters look for new ways to cheat). If Melky continues to use and factoring in the new ballpark he could put up top 10 numbers with the increased number of homers he'll inevitably hit.

Edited by archibjd, 27 November 2012 - 08:45 PM.


#11 dzemens

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 08:17 AM

View Postarchibjd, on 27 November 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 26 November 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

Did Ryan Braun try and establish a fake website with a fake supplement to say this is what he took and that he is innocent?  Im not too detailed with both situations, but on the surface they didnt seem very similar.

I think you are getting lost in irrelevant detail. Both are very good PED hitters who've been caught using (that's the overriding similarity). I thought last year Ryan Braun would experience a performance drop-off due to not using PEDs after getting caught, but he obviously kept using and had a phenomenal year. My point is that I think the better assumption is that Melky keeps using, even if he goes into spring training with the mindset that he won't use (most cheaters look for new ways to cheat). If Melky continues to use and factoring in the new ballpark he could put up top 10 numbers with the increased number of homers he'll inevitably hit.

Really? As once you get caught the rate of testing goes through the roof. I dont think one can say he obviously did anything, much as one cant say he was obviously juicing prior to when he got caught. Its not impossible, but the chances of him being able to evade detection after a suspension and the heightened level of testing that occurs are slim to none. Certainly there are ways around testing but I think the assumption that Braun obviously kept using, or that Melky will continue to keep using is flawed as there is far more attention focused on these players after a positive test.
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#12 parrothead

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 11:11 AM

View Postarchibjd, on 27 November 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 26 November 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

Did Ryan Braun try and establish a fake website with a fake supplement to say this is what he took and that he is innocent?  Im not too detailed with both situations, but on the surface they didnt seem very similar.

I think you are getting lost in irrelevant detail. Both are very good PED hitters who've been caught using (that's the overriding similarity). I thought last year Ryan Braun would experience a performance drop-off due to not using PEDs after getting caught, but he obviously kept using and had a phenomenal year. My point is that I think the better assumption is that Melky keeps using, even if he goes into spring training with the mindset that he won't use (most cheaters look for new ways to cheat). If Melky continues to use and factoring in the new ballpark he could put up top 10 numbers with the increased number of homers he'll inevitably hit.
No...Ryan Braun has always been a great player, he was a great player pre-professional days which led him to be the 5th Overall pick of the draft, he was a great player in the minors and has been a great player EVERY year in the majors, including last year after supposedly being caught the year before.  When he was caught, he claimed his innoncence, not through the use of making up a fake website.  Melky Cabrera on the other hand was a mediocre 4th OF type, out of shape, who has had up years and down years who totally transformed his body and his performance followed beginning in 2011 Kansas City.  Dont get me wrong, as I said in an earlier post, I like Melky as a value in our auction this year, however to compare him to Ryan Braun, who has always been a great player and I think we can assume not always on PED, where Melky you saw the body transformation and probably can connect the dots to when the PEDs started is not really a comparison that makes the case for Melky.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#13 cornerback

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 02:01 PM

somebody saw him in ST? what is to expect this year in toronto? third OFer numbers? or better. its a great lineup he is hitting in....

#14 Suikoden

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 02:47 PM

286 so far, 4 RBI
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Eric Hosmer 2B: Brad Miller SS: Owings 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Heyward OF: Myers
Util:  Jose Abreu Bench: Avila, Schoop, Solarte, Baez (NA)
SP: Homer Bailey SP: Shelby Miller RP: Rosenthal RP: Soria P: Motte, Broxton, Withrow, Storen, Allen, Webb
Bench: Pineda, Ryu, Stroman and Meyer (Both NA's)
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Mash Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- Braun, Harper, Werth Util- Melky Morse
Bench: Brad Miller, Hosmer, Hill, Solarte  NAs: Bryant and Springer
SPs:  Sale, Cain, Ventura, Hudson RPs:  Reed Balfour Papelbon Soria Bench: Ubaldo DL- Walker
Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth

#15 Chubbles

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 03:04 PM

I think he'll be fine, not as good as last year but a serviceable fantasy pick who can be a 3rd or 4th outfielder on a good fantasy team
16 Team 10 Player Keeper  (2013 Champion!!!!!)
Hitters:  Molina, Loney, Tulowitzki, Pedroia, Beltre, Ellsbury, Puig, Myers, Justin Upton, Kemp, Melky, Morrison, Dee Gordon, Russell, Olt

Pitchers:  Wainwright, Fernandez, Bumgarner, Odorizzi, Cingrani, Ventura, Hutchison, Kazmir, Milone, Skaggs


16 Team, 3 Player Keeper Auction
PG:  Rondo, Rubio, Lowry, Marshall
RB:  Hayward, Leonard, Reddick
SF:  Gay, Parsons, Barnes
PF:  Lee, P. Gasol
C:  Aldridge, R. lopez, Hawes

#16 Chubbles

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Posted 05 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

I project a 280+ average with double digit homers and steals...depending on where in the lineup he hits I could see 80+runs and 60+ rbi's
16 Team 10 Player Keeper  (2013 Champion!!!!!)
Hitters:  Molina, Loney, Tulowitzki, Pedroia, Beltre, Ellsbury, Puig, Myers, Justin Upton, Kemp, Melky, Morrison, Dee Gordon, Russell, Olt

Pitchers:  Wainwright, Fernandez, Bumgarner, Odorizzi, Cingrani, Ventura, Hutchison, Kazmir, Milone, Skaggs


16 Team, 3 Player Keeper Auction
PG:  Rondo, Rubio, Lowry, Marshall
RB:  Hayward, Leonard, Reddick
SF:  Gay, Parsons, Barnes
PF:  Lee, P. Gasol
C:  Aldridge, R. lopez, Hawes

#17 Suikoden

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 03:43 PM

another 2rbi
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Eric Hosmer 2B: Brad Miller SS: Owings 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Heyward OF: Myers
Util:  Jose Abreu Bench: Avila, Schoop, Solarte, Baez (NA)
SP: Homer Bailey SP: Shelby Miller RP: Rosenthal RP: Soria P: Motte, Broxton, Withrow, Storen, Allen, Webb
Bench: Pineda, Ryu, Stroman and Meyer (Both NA's)
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Mash Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- Braun, Harper, Werth Util- Melky Morse
Bench: Brad Miller, Hosmer, Hill, Solarte  NAs: Bryant and Springer
SPs:  Sale, Cain, Ventura, Hudson RPs:  Reed Balfour Papelbon Soria Bench: Ubaldo DL- Walker
Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth

#18 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 09:52 AM

Melky is going to have a very solid year. No reason why he will not come closer to 100 runs batting in that stacked lineup. 100 15 70 15 .290 Is what I am thinking

#19 hunjeebakala

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

does he hit .300 this year? i been trying to get him in all my leagues as a 3OF or util spot as a guy to help with my average.

#20 Wombat

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 03:16 PM

I feel like he's being undervalued.  We just have no idea how much the PED's did.  There's a chance he goes back to being the scrub he was before 2011, but I think there's a bigger chance his skills these last two years were not just a complete product of whatever magical substance he was using.  He's hitting 2nd in a stacked lineup, I feel like he's going to put up a line close to 2011 again.




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