150 replies to this topic

[cbe_88]

klove42, on 16 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Does the signing of Kelly put Mccoy into the top 5 for some people?

Talk to me when Philly gets some o-lineman that can actually block for him.

Edited by cbe_88, 16 January 2013 - 01:17 PM.

[Red Sox Nation]

klove42, on 16 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Does the signing of Kelly put Mccoy into the top 5 for some people?

For me, I could argue he's #3 in a ppr setting. The past two season, receiving back De'Anthony Thomas had 46 and 45 receptions in 14 and 13 games those seasons. Their lead ball carrier had 247 and 278 carries the past two years. 90% of the time they had big leads and were able to run more though, but they ran well over 60% of the time the past two years. They also didn't run with the qb as much as most people would think. I would set McCoy's over/under at 270 carries and 50 catches. I'd probably take the over on both. It is true he will need a better o-line, but in a year where the Eagles were awful, o-line as bad as it could get, and constantly trailing, he was still on a per-game average a top 8 rb's in most ppr leagues. This just strengthens what looks to be a pretty solid round 1 for rb's, one of the better one's over the past few years.

[Qrocks]

klove42, on 16 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Does the signing of Kelly put Mccoy into the top 5 for some people?

First rounders, especially top 5 guys, should provide confidence, not apprehension.  Unless the Eagles get a really solid QB, Mccoy seems more like a pretty nice 2nd rounder to me.

[cbe_88]

Qrocks, on 18 January 2013 - 12:23 PM, said:

klove42, on 16 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Does the signing of Kelly put Mccoy into the top 5 for some people?

First rounders, especially top 5 guys, should provide confidence, not apprehension.  Unless the Eagles get a really solid QB, Mccoy seems more like a pretty nice 2nd rounder to me.

Absolutely, his terrible o-line holds him back to the top of the 2nd round, for now.

[Red Sox Nation]

cbe_88, on 18 January 2013 - 12:50 PM, said:

Qrocks, on 18 January 2013 - 12:23 PM, said:

klove42, on 16 January 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Does the signing of Kelly put Mccoy into the top 5 for some people?

First rounders, especially top 5 guys, should provide confidence, not apprehension.  Unless the Eagles get a really solid QB, Mccoy seems more like a pretty nice 2nd rounder to me.

Absolutely, his terrible o-line holds him back to the top of the 2nd round, for now.

Let's see how Jason Peters looks. If reports are positive and he is healthy, that's already a massive upgrade (he's regarded by many as arguably top left tackle in the game).

[cbe_88]

Red Sox Nation, on 18 January 2013 - 11:17 PM, said:

Let's see how Jason Peters looks. If reports are positive and he is healthy, that's already a massive upgrade (he's regarded by many as arguably top left tackle in the game).

Yeah I bet Peters does come back and looks good, but the o-line will still be well below average if the rest of the the o-line doesn't see upgrades. Even the worst o-lines in the league have one good player.

I need to see early draft picks or quality FA signings at the rest of the o-line before spending my precious late 1st round/early 2nd pick on McCoy. I owned him last year and it made me sick how a talent like him was truly held back by his o-line all year.

[Red Sox Nation]

cbe_88, on 19 January 2013 - 01:39 AM, said:

Red Sox Nation, on 18 January 2013 - 11:17 PM, said:

Let's see how Jason Peters looks. If reports are positive and he is healthy, that's already a massive upgrade (he's regarded by many as arguably top left tackle in the game).

Yeah I bet Peters does come back and looks good, but the o-line will still be well below average if the rest of the the o-line doesn't see upgrades. Even the worst o-lines in the league have one good player.

I need to see early draft picks or quality FA signings at the rest of the o-line before spending my precious late 1st round/early 2nd pick on McCoy. I owned him last year and it made me sick how a talent like him was truly held back by his o-line all year.

IF Peters does come back healthy though, it IS an upgrade. And hopefully they sign someone else. But let's be honest their o-line really can't get any worse and the team played as bad as it can. McCoy still averaged 4.2 ypc, over 100 total yards per game, and over 4 catches per game. Also, he has a coach who will certainly help his fantasy outlook. IMO the 1st round this year is loaded with stud rb1's. I see 9 guys, including McCoy, that could all finish in the top 3 (and I see Forte Morris CJ Ridley right after those 9, giving 13 really solid rb's). I think there will be a lot of variation on people's picks. I could honestly see the cluster of guys like Rice Martin McCoy Charles T-Rich Spiller being ranked in any order. This probably helps McCoy because risk adverse owners will pass on him, and his adp will likely sit in the 8-11 range (pending f/a moves). I think this is a golden opportunity to get an elite rb at a discount. Now, while I say this, I play ppr leagues and he was extremely consistent and played at a top 8 per week average. In a standard league I'm not even sure he takes a hit since Rice Martin Charles Spiller Richardson and others all get a ton of value from receptions. McCoy was held down because of touchdowns last year but outside of Foster Peterson Lynch types no one is really a sure bet for 10+ tds. McCoy had 9 tds three years ago and 20 last year. For most players td's pretty much fluctuate change year to year, so if McCoy gets back to 8+, he is likely to be a top 5 if not a top 3 player.

[cbe_88]

Red Sox Nation, on 19 January 2013 - 02:39 AM, said:

IF Peters does come back healthy though, it IS an upgrade. And hopefully they sign someone else. But let's be honest their o-line really can't get any worse and the team played as bad as it can. McCoy still averaged 4.2 ypc, over 100 total yards per game, and over 4 catches per game. Also, he has a coach who will certainly help his fantasy outlook. IMO the 1st round this year is loaded with stud rb1's. I see 9 guys, including McCoy, that could all finish in the top 3 (and I see Forte Morris CJ Ridley right after those 9, giving 13 really solid rb's). I think there will be a lot of variation on people's picks. I could honestly see the cluster of guys like Rice Martin McCoy Charles T-Rich Spiller being ranked in any order. This probably helps McCoy because risk adverse owners will pass on him, and his adp will likely sit in the 8-11 range (pending f/a moves). I think this is a golden opportunity to get an elite rb at a discount. Now, while I say this, I play ppr leagues and he was extremely consistent and played at a top 8 per week average. In a standard league I'm not even sure he takes a hit since Rice Martin Charles Spiller Richardson and others all get a ton of value from receptions. McCoy was held down because of touchdowns last year but outside of Foster Peterson Lynch types no one is really a sure bet for 10+ tds. McCoy had 9 tds three years ago and 20 last year. For most players td's pretty much fluctuate change year to year, so if McCoy gets back to 8+, he is likely to be a top 5 if not a top 3 player.

Oh McCoy was solid this year when he wasn't hurt. That's the most amazing part, and what will keep him at the end1st/early2nd range. Even with a horrible line and being on a horrible team, his top-2 talent and elusiveness still showed being a lock for 10 pts. I believe one game he scored under 10 pts all yr, so a solid lock for double digits.

The problem with McCoy in 2012 was that his o-line and offensive unit as a whole was so bad at being effective that his blow-up potential nearly went out the window. There was one week he got 18 pts, but other than that game, he never even came close to having a blow up game that won matchups for owners. He was far and away in the 10-15 range, which puts him as an amazingly consistent but only solid contributor. But the league where I drafted him 2nd overall last year you needed and expected some blow up weeks mixed to ensure victories.

So I maintain that I need to see multiple upgrades at o-line, even outside of the hopes that Peters somehow comes back to pro-bowl level after a serious injury. Chip Kelly gets his arrow pointing up a little bit, but he needs a solid o-line to get back that blow-up potential that every player drafted as early as the late1st should have.

A discount on an elite RB McCoy is, but McCoy needs better blockers next year. Trust me, I'll be keeping tabs on his situation. If I see some necessary moves I'm ALL over one of the most talented backs in the league.

[rraayy3]

i'm more worried about bryce brown earning a bigger role than the OL [peters return is a huge upgrade to the OL by himself]
although it only takes 1 minicamp fumble for brown to be in the doghouse... something to monitor.

right now my top 3 RBs are AP/Foster/Charles ... but this is liable to change 100 times before I even think about my draft.

[fredth3cat]

rraayy3, on 19 January 2013 - 01:18 PM, said:

i'm more worried about bryce brown earning a bigger role than the OL [peters return is a huge upgrade to the OL by himself]
although it only takes 1 minicamp fumble for brown to be in the doghouse... something to monitor.

right now my top 3 RBs are AP/Foster/Charles ... but this is liable to change 100 times before I even think about my draft.

I agree. People will say "no, McCoy is elite. BB is no threat", but Brown has shown enough ability to turn into a real headache for McCoy owners next year.

I could see McCoy putting up 100 total yards every week while Brown steals 40 yards/week and six TDs on the year, preventing McCoy from putting up truly elite numbers.

[cbe_88]

fredth3cat, on 19 January 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

rraayy3, on 19 January 2013 - 01:18 PM, said:

i'm more worried about bryce brown earning a bigger role than the OL [peters return is a huge upgrade to the OL by himself]
although it only takes 1 minicamp fumble for brown to be in the doghouse... something to monitor.

right now my top 3 RBs are AP/Foster/Charles ... but this is liable to change 100 times before I even think about my draft.

I agree. People will say "no, McCoy is elite. BB is no threat", but Brown has shown enough ability to turn into a real headache for McCoy owners next year.

I could see McCoy putting up 100 total yards every week while Brown steals 40 yards/week and six TDs on the year, preventing McCoy from putting up truly elite numbers.

Well then you'd have to throw in the Ray Rice/Bernard Pierce complex as well. In terms of showing enough Pierce absolutely has shown enough to deserve a role.

I think McCoy/BB are worth more keeping tabs on though since its up in the air what the new coach Kelly will decide to divvy up carries. New coaching staff and QB shows more risk of change. Whereas Harbaugh loves both of his backs, but no major changes are happening in BAL. So with the same coaching staff his usual load seems a lot more guaranteed. Rice is still a top-5 pick in my mind.

I still think this horrid o-line, is just as much a concern as BB consistently being more of a 3-5 carry guy in relief of McCoy. Peters will help a ton, yes, but there's 4 other spots there. Again, I'll be keeping tabs on how they address this in the offseason before contemplating McCoy next year with my first round pick.