88 replies to this topic

[baltimore_boy]

Quote

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said Wednesday that the team has told Aroldis Chapman to prepare to be a starting pitcher.

Seems like Chapman and his electric arm are heading to the rotation. If his arm can hold up for 30 starts, he could put up insane K numbers. Definitely someone to target in drafts because of his massive potential.

[jsp2014]

he is exactly the type of gamble I like to take. problem is, EVERYONE is going to like him, and that means EVERYONE is going to want to reach for him, which means he's going to wind up getting drafted higher than some established aces. I have a feeling he's going to be taken in the first 4 rounds of most drafts.

[det_tigers]

The good news and the bad news

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said Wednesday that the team has told Aroldis Chapman to prepare to be a starting pitcher

Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said Wednesday that Aroldis Chapman will be on an innings limit in 2013.

[ludawg23]

Let the hype begin!

[dzemens]

det_tigers, on 28 November 2012 - 05:36 PM, said:

The good news and the bad news

Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said Wednesday that the team has told Aroldis Chapman to prepare to be a starting pitcher

Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said Wednesday that Aroldis Chapman will be on an innings limit in 2013.

Hurray!

Ugh...

Though I donts see him being a dominant starter and his K rate is sure to fall off some.

[ipstaff]

So who gets booted out of the Red rotation?  Gotta be Leake, right?  Bailey's ludicrously hot September keeps him in, and Arroyo regained his pre-2011 form this last season, so...

[RespectMyAuthority]

Loved him as a closer, hate him moving into the rotation for at least the first year, especially if the dreaded innings limit is there.  It's the perfect scenario where someone else can overpay for him this year, then I'll hope to steal him for value in 2014.

[parrothead]

I was in rebuild mode last year so took him at my P7 which I always consider my "swing" or risk/reward slot for $1.  Paid off big and I love him as a closer, the closer K's I think are always one of those hidden stats that are important to pay attention to.  So losing him to the rotation, Im sure the K's will still be there, just would rather have him as a closer myself.

[jsp2014]

dzemens, on 28 November 2012 - 07:49 PM, said:

Though I donts see him being a dominant starter and his K rate is sure to fall off some.

I think you're in a small minority with this. maybe it depends on your definition of dominant. he likely won't go past 7ip hardly ever but I do see a lot of 5ip, 10k, 2h, 3bb, 0er type games. in cap IP leagues that's arguably more valuable than a guy who routinely goes deeper with less dominant stats.

[jsp2014]

from tangotiger:

Quote

Basically, use the “rule of 17”: difference in BABIP is 17 points higher as starter.  K/PA is 17% higher as reliever.  And HR per contacted PA is 17% higher as starter.  Walk rate is FLAT.

...

The golden rule basically comes down to this: when you compare a reliever’s stats, you MUST MUST MUST use a different baseline than a starter.  And that baseline is roughly a 1 run difference per 9IP.  And it has nothing at all to do with leverage.  The basic way to think about it is that a starter is pitching with one hand tied behind his back.  So, you can’t compare him straight up to a reliever.

Edited by jsp2014, 29 November 2012 - 07:58 PM.

[ChrisFarley]

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

[jsp2014]

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

[ChrisFarley]

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

[ChrisFarley]

oops, 95.3 mph is for 2011.

[bravesfan4life]

Probably staying away. I feel like he could let a lot of people down that will expect 250+ Ks and draft him super early. Don't blame the Reds for trying it but I would rather have a proven guy that early in drafts that won't have an innings limit or starting pitcher learning curve.

[jsp2014]

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

little bit OT, but http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&pitch=FT

looks like a conscious decision he made. it'd be more concerning if there were a downward trend throughout the year. instead, it looks he made an adjustment after his first 3 starts.

all I'm saying is that pitchers break. that's inherently part of being a pitcher. we can't look at a couple of isolated cases and say "look! RP-to-SP converts break down!" there have been numerous success stories of RP-to-SP converts in recent years.

Edited by jsp2014, 30 November 2012 - 09:49 AM.

[ChrisFarley]

jsp2014, on 30 November 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

little bit OT, but http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&pitch=FT

looks like a conscious decision he made. it'd be more concerning if there were a downward trend throughout the year. instead, it looks he made an adjustment after his first 3 starts.

all I'm saying is that pitchers break. that's inherently part of being a pitcher. we can't look at a couple of isolated cases and say "look! RP-to-SP converts break down!" there have been numerous success stories of RP-to-SP converts in recent years.

jsp2014, on 30 November 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

little bit OT, but http://www.fangraphs...tion=P&pitch=FT

looks like a conscious decision he made. it'd be more concerning if there were a downward trend throughout the year. instead, it looks he made an adjustment after his first 3 starts.

all I'm saying is that pitchers break. that's inherently part of being a pitcher. we can't look at a couple of isolated cases and say "look! RP-to-SP converts break down!" there have been numerous success stories of RP-to-SP converts in recent years.

Seems like I'm not the only one worried about Chris Sale.

http://www.dailyhera...orts/707299903/

This article is from July.

1st half: 2.19 era, 0.95 whip, only 5 homers allowed in 105 IP
2nd half: 4.03 era, 1.34 whip, 14 homers allowed in 89 IP

As you can see, the drop in velocity is concerning considering his performance dipped and he became more hittable.  You're right though, pitchers do break.  I just feel that when there's smoke, there's fire.  I believe that's the case here with Chris Sale.

[baltimore_boy]

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

What does that matter? That should make people like him more if you ask me. He had a consistent velocity throughout the year and with less velocity, he has a less injury chance. I don't see how this can be a negative for him.

[ChrisFarley]

baltimore_boy, on 30 November 2012 - 03:37 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

What does that matter? That should make people like him more if you ask me. He had a consistent velocity throughout the year and with less velocity, he has a less injury chance. I don't see how this can be a negative for him.

baltimore_boy, on 30 November 2012 - 03:37 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 11:15 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 29 November 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

ChrisFarley, on 29 November 2012 - 09:32 PM, said:

Joba Chamberlain, Neftali Feliz... Lesson learned.  Don't toy with golden arms.

Chris Sale?

there are always going to be successes and failures no matter what we're talking about.

I wouldn't be so confident in Sale.  He had a great year, but I noticed something very interesting with regards to his arm strength.

Avg fastball velocity...

2010: 96.3 mph
2012: 95.3 mph
2012: 91.6 mph

Yes, I realize that as a starter, you don't go full throttle as you do when coming in for only an inning as a reliever.  BUT, you can see a HUGE velo drop (4 mph).  I remember reading that due to his lanky frame and cross body delivery, injury and durability might be a concern in his future as a major leaguer.

What does that matter? That should make people like him more if you ask me. He had a consistent velocity throughout the year and with less velocity, he has a less injury chance. I don't see how this can be a negative for him.

You're missing the point.  Its the drop off in velocity that is a concern as it can be highlighting an underlying arm issue.  Especially early in the year when there were claims of 'dead arm' and 'elbow tightness'.  As you can see by his 2nd half numbers, he was far less effective than the 1st.  All I am say is that, don't be surprised if arm troubles pop up next year.  Drop in velo + drop in perfomance + issues of dead arm/tightness not a red flag to you???