Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

* * * * - 2 votes

Ryan Braun 2013 Outlook


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
1136 replies to this topic

#1 archibjd

archibjd

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 654 posts

Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:26 PM

View Postklove42, on 26 November 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

I think this is a good move for Toronto, and even though he wont be on PED anymore, I think his power goes up in Toronto and he has a solid fantasy year

Why do we assume that Melky goes off the PEDs after getting caught? Ryan Braun didn't and his situation was very similar to Melky.

Edited by The Harsh, 29 November 2012 - 05:54 AM.
Might as well give this its own topic to stop the hijacking of the Melky thread.


#2 parrothead

parrothead

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,596 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Chula vista, CA
  • Interests:Following jimmy Buffett all summer hitting baseball stadiums along the way.

Posted 26 November 2012 - 10:53 PM

View Postarchibjd, on 26 November 2012 - 10:26 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 26 November 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

I think this is a good move for Toronto, and even though he wont be on PED anymore, I think his power goes up in Toronto and he has a solid fantasy year

Why do we assume that Melky goes off the PEDs after getting caught? Ryan Braun didn't and his situation was very similar to Melky.
Did Ryan Braun try and establish a fake website with a fake supplement to say this is what he took and that he is innocent?  Im not too detailed with both situations, but on the surface they didnt seem very similar.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#3 Zumayaaaa

Zumayaaaa

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,805 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Burlington, ON

Posted 28 November 2012 - 09:38 AM

View Postarchibjd, on 27 November 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 26 November 2012 - 10:53 PM, said:

Did Ryan Braun try and establish a fake website with a fake supplement to say this is what he took and that he is innocent?  Im not too detailed with both situations, but on the surface they didnt seem very similar.

I think you are getting lost in irrelevant detail. Both are very good PED hitters who've been caught using (that's the overriding similarity). I thought last year Ryan Braun would experience a performance drop-off due to not using PEDs after getting caught, but he obviously kept using and had a phenomenal year. My point is that I think the better assumption is that Melky keeps using, even if he goes into spring training with the mindset that he won't use (most cheaters look for new ways to cheat). If Melky continues to use and factoring in the new ballpark he could put up top 10 numbers with the increased number of homers he'll inevitably hit.

Ever stop to think that Ryan Braun is just a god damn good baseball player?

DURRRR

#4 archibjd

archibjd

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 654 posts

Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:23 PM

If Braun was a great player without steroids why did he get caught using steroids? What makes more sense, in light of him having been caught, is MLB's ability to catch steroid users isn't very good.

I don't believe Braun had a false positive with such elevated levels of testosterone in his system. I don't believe that Braun could have a career year in 2012 in terms of homers without steroids when he was on steroids in 2011 and only hit 33 homers. You don't go off steroids only to hit more homers. What is far more likely is that the window of detection is small so that Braun has only been busted once and feels fairly confident he can continue to use without a huge chance of getting caught again especially when detection technology is far less advanced and behind designer steroid medical science (that's where all the money is at!).

#5 damana

damana

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 552 posts

Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:34 PM

View Postarchibjd, on 28 November 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

If Braun was a great player without steroids why did he get caught using steroids? What makes more sense, in light of him having been caught, is MLB's ability to catch steroid users isn't very good.

I don't believe Braun had a false positive with such elevated levels of testosterone in his system. I don't believe that Braun could have a career year in 2012 in terms of homers without steroids when he was on steroids in 2011 and only hit 33 homers. You don't go off steroids only to hit more homers. What is far more likely is that the window of detection is small so that Braun has only been busted once and feels fairly confident he can continue to use without a huge chance of getting caught again especially when detection technology is far less advanced and behind designer steroid medical science (that's where all the money is at!).

Needless to say it is all heresay regarding Braun.  The guy never actually admitted using steroids nor can you prove that he used again during 2012 without a positive test.  We do however know that Melky was using during his best season.  Whether he uses again...well thats MLB's problem to deal with if the need arises.

Edited by damana, 28 November 2012 - 06:36 PM.

4X4 AL East and NL only Keeper auction league (Keep 10)

C. Davis ($25)(3 years)
D. Murphy ($6)(3 years)
B. Harper ($17)(2 years)
E. Cabrera ($4)(3 years)
X. Boegaerts (3rd base eligible only)($6)(4 years)
A. Jones ($27)(1 year)
K. Jensen ($8)(3 years)
M. Minor ($7)(3 years)
A. Cobb ($9)(3 years)
A. Cashner ($6)(3 years)

#6 archibjd

archibjd

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 654 posts

Posted 28 November 2012 - 10:05 PM

View Postdamana, on 28 November 2012 - 06:34 PM, said:

View Postarchibjd, on 28 November 2012 - 06:23 PM, said:

If Braun was a great player without steroids why did he get caught using steroids? What makes more sense, in light of him having been caught, is MLB's ability to catch steroid users isn't very good.

I don't believe Braun had a false positive with such elevated levels of testosterone in his system. I don't believe that Braun could have a career year in 2012 in terms of homers without steroids when he was on steroids in 2011 and only hit 33 homers. You don't go off steroids only to hit more homers. What is far more likely is that the window of detection is small so that Braun has only been busted once and feels fairly confident he can continue to use without a huge chance of getting caught again especially when detection technology is far less advanced and behind designer steroid medical science (that's where all the money is at!).

Needless to say it is all heresay regarding Braun.  The guy never actually admitted using steroids nor can you prove that he used again during 2012 without a positive test.  We do however know that Melky was using during his best season.  Whether he uses again...well thats MLB's problem to deal with if the need arises.

Braun tested positive for a PED and elevated levels of testosterone (i.e. steroids). Braun didn't dispute the fact he tested positive but rather tried to  prove it was a false positive and ended up getting off because the delivery of his test result didn't happen within the time frame permitted. The timeliness of the delivery to an MLB lab wouldn't have caused the results to show hugely elevated levels of testosterone in his urine sample. However it was a technicality that enabled him to beat the conviction but doesn't change the reality of the situation that he tested positive for steroids.

Braun tested positive at the end of the 2011 season. His 2011 season was his 4th best in terms of power output. Let's dismiss the assumption that statistically speaking the first time someone gets caught cheating is probably not the first time they cheated, why would Braun be taking steroids for the first time at the end of the 2011 when it didn't affect his power in any meaningful way since his 2011 season was by no means exceptional for him in terms of power? The far more logical assumption is that Braun has always been taking steroids, it makes a meaningful difference, and his 2011 season was another productive steroid year for him. While steroid detection is pretty bad compared to actual steroid MLB use, and for the most part steroid use can be completely masked from MLB detection, it is still not 100 percent full proof and Braun got busted with a rare positive test.

I think if you believe Braun`s test was a true positive result, you have to believe he`s been taking steroids for more than just the 2011 campaign given the numbers he has put up before and since, and given the fact steroids improve baseball performance drastically.

Last year, and in my opinion, I was pretty naive to assume Braun would stop using steroids in 2012 and would have a meaningful performance drop due to the fact he would stop using. I am not going to make the same assumptions about Melky, and will assume Melky continues to use PEDs, and playing at the Rogers Centre in the BJ lineup I think a top 10 fantasy year with 25+ homers and 20 SB with a 300+ average is achievable.

Edited by archibjd, 28 November 2012 - 10:10 PM.


#7 Cmilne23

Cmilne23

    All-Time Great

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,958 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:35 PM

This guy is a fraud.  Take the MVP away from him and give him 50 games off:

http://sports.yahoo....-235650670.html

#8 det_tigers

det_tigers

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,424 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:36 PM

Brewers star Ryan Braun's name is in records of the Miami-area clinic alleged to have distributed performance-enhancing drugs to a rash of baseball players, and Major League Baseball will investigate the link to the former MVP who tested positive for illegal synthetic testosterone during the 2011 postseason. Three of the Biogenesis clinic records obtained by Yahoo! Sports show Braun's name. (RotoInfo.com) (02/05)

#9 NYSportsfan24

NYSportsfan24

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,262 posts

Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:07 PM

Does this put him after Miggy & Trout?

#10 Cmilne23

Cmilne23

    All-Time Great

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,958 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:09 PM

View PostNYSportsfan24, on 05 February 2013 - 08:07 PM, said:

Does this put him after Miggy & Trout?

If I am drafting I am either pushing my draft back or avoiding him.  This could get messy.  MLB was already pissed he escaped the first time.  They have been waiting for him to slip up so they can punish him.  Now they have the chance.  You have to see how this could play out.  Could turn into a big thing like Balco, could be swept under the rug in the coming days depending on what they find out the players took.  Like Gio's name is on the list but he is linked to protein and vitamin supplements that are over the counter and legal.

#11 rag9876

rag9876

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,080 posts

Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:11 PM

If he gets suspended, this puts him in round 6.

#12 sharpee

sharpee

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,542 posts

Posted 05 February 2013 - 08:27 PM

omfg this is not good...

#13 rag9876

rag9876

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,080 posts

Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:24 PM

Just when we thought it was "safe" to pencil 35/25 into our lineups.  This is going to be really difficult for those of us with keeper decisions, especially if they don't release a ruling for awhile...

#14 SkinsNoles21

SkinsNoles21

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 672 posts

Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:50 PM

Now might actually be the time to acquire this guy in a trade in keeper leagues. Do you have the balls to make that kind of move though?
Weekly 12 Team 6x6 H2H Keeper

Bats:
C: Yan Gomes 1B: Miguel Cabrera (K) 2B: Jose Altuve (K) 3B: Josh Donaldson SS: Ben Zobrist OF: Yoenis Cespedes, Carlos Beltran, Chris Carter Util: Victor Martinez B: Starling Marte DL: Andrew McCutchen (K)

Arms:
SPs: Corey Kluber (K), Jake Arrieta (K) RPs: Aroldis Chapman, Sean Doolittle Ps: Hisashi Iwakuma, James Shields, Jeff Samardjiza, Mat Latos, James Paxton, Danny Duffy, Chris Anderson, Jake McGee

#15 tucker26

tucker26

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,775 posts

Posted 06 February 2013 - 01:17 AM

There was smoke. That cleared on a procedural error. Now more smoke. This probably will not end well. If you can get 80 cents on the dollar, might be time to hedge that bet for all those in keepers.
And all the greatest of the heroes
Started jumping from the books
They started wearing ones and zeros
Looking more and more like crooks
They stole the sunlight from the future
Took a sip, drank half the glass then put it back

#16 RADickey4Prez

RADickey4Prez

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,285 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 06 February 2013 - 03:56 AM

Is there a less likeable athlete than Braun?  I absolutely can't stand this guy.  Hope karma catches him soon.

#17 Dodger Blue 88

Dodger Blue 88

    Allstar

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 711 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 06 February 2013 - 05:39 AM

I have the first pick in my 20 teamer and was leaning towards Braun over Trout. Now I am taking Trout for sure. Not going to risk a suspension.

#18 RotoRaysfan

RotoRaysfan

    All-Time Great

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,596 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Rotobronco

Posted 06 February 2013 - 10:37 AM

As there's a MIA clinic thread already in play, and the PED angle is well-covered there, Braun's involvement (or not) is over there.   For all fantasy discussion, by all means, keep posting here.

And yeah, the spectre of his involvement has clear fantasy implications.   As long as there is a 50-game suspension that's even just "possible" - it drops him for sure.  If it's announced before the season (and before drafts), then yeah, you can easily watch a tremendous fall.  The issue is that I don't see his case being decided until AFTER people draft - so teams that take a chance and draft him get a top 3 player for a full season.   Those that take him in the 1st/2nd round, they end up losing 1/3 of the season - and worse, they have no idea when during the season that might be (whereas H2H leagues probably would take a greater chance vs. Roto - since they would be planning on having him back for playoffs - but even that assumption can't be made now, since there are no timelines for decisions).

The fact nothing is confirmed, and likely won't be, is well covered in the MIA clinic thread - the worst part is that it's a total X factor in drafts which will be taking place in the next 6 weeks.   Whatever team drafts him, they'll likely be the biggest riverboat gambler owner in your league - no way he'll drop to Round 6.  Late Round 2, Round 3 is where I'd peg him if the buzz becomes greater about possible missed time (although Roto leagues might drop further, given total stats matter more).
Football PPR 2014 - Cutler, L. Bell, R. Jennings, Dez, Marshall, V-Jax, Justin Hunter, Quick, Rudolph, HOU DST. D-Thomas fan club member.<br />Dynasty 2014 - Romo, E. Lacy, Gore, Gerhart, C-Michael, D-Train, K. Allen, R. White, M. Evans, Quick, J. Graham, L. Green, HOU DST.<br /><br />Been a blast everyone - take care, and remember to abide by the CoC, and to help your fellow community out - it's what's made the Forum community great!<br /><br />P.S. My passion is primarily FBB - you'd LOL at my football track record!

#19 Van Buren Boys

Van Buren Boys

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,496 posts
  • Location:Taxachusetts

Posted 06 February 2013 - 10:00 PM

C'mon Braun.  You're killing me man.  I literally just traded for him two weeks ago.  As a fantasy baseball player, all these PED guys are killing me.

Edited by Van Buren Boys, 06 February 2013 - 10:01 PM.

To be the man, you've got to beat the man!

#20 DropkickAlex

DropkickAlex

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,036 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Erie, PA

Posted 07 February 2013 - 01:38 PM

View PostRADickey4Prez, on 06 February 2013 - 03:56 AM, said:

Is there a less likeable athlete than Braun?  I absolutely can't stand this guy.  Hope karma catches him soon.

Do you hate Hank Aaron, Ty Cobb, or Babe Ruth?
Brooklyn Dodgers: Buffalo Baseball League: Dynasty League: 7th Year:
World Series Champion (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
American League Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)
Division Champion (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013)