191 replies to this topic

[v0dka]

McCutchen's 2012 season was stellar, but does anyone believe he can replicate his .375 BABIP?

[jsp2014]

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

I was a huge fan of Andrew McCutchen going into last year. Basically anytime I could in the second round, he was going to be mine.

Here is a look at his BABIP over his career in the majors.
2009(108) games: .327
2010: .311
2011: .291
2012: .375

So yes, a regression on the BABIP is(should) be expected for 2013.

A noticable drop in BABIP is going to lead to a clif dive in AVG. A realistic expection could be ball park of .280 next year.

Plus we can not over look how the amount of steals over the last couple of years.
2010: 33
2011: 23
2012: 20

I agree. he's great, but he's almost certainly going to be drafted higher than I will take him by someone just looking at his surface stats and assuming it's natural improvement.

[parrothead]

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 12:18 PM, said:

I was a huge fan of Andrew McCutchen going into last year. Basically anytime I could in the second round, he was going to be mine.

Here is a look at his BABIP over his career in the majors.
2009(108) games: .327
2010: .311
2011: .291
2012: .375

So yes, a regression on the BABIP is(should) be expected for 2013.

A noticable drop in BABIP is going to lead to a clif dive in AVG. A realistic expection could be ball park of .280 next year.

He was .286 two years, then had drop into .250's then massive jump.  I would think .285-.290 is reasonable expectation.

He hits the market for the first time in our auction league this year, so it will be interesting to see, I have enough to get 1 big bat if I want it, not sure it will be on him, though he does fit with my model this year of getting as many guys to fill SB and Runs without sacrificing power.  He will probably go for more than where I will spend on a bat though.

[jamie]

In an OBP league, I'd expect his BABIP regression to knock him down to .375.  He had a .400 OBP in 2012.

[mevins31]

I wonder how many bombs he hits next season

[aggie]

Are you guys thinking he is an early second rounder as several mocks I have seen have him mid to late first round.

[Brewcrewfan]

Well, I'd take Braun, Miggy, Trout, Kemp, and Cano over him. You can make a case for him to be 6th. Mid to late 1st is reasonable. Even a regression in batting average nets an above average batting average and on base percentage. A guy that contributes quality numbers in all 5 or 6 cats is worth a 1st round pick.

[mevins31]

Need more talk about this guy, one of my favorite players in the NL

[qmar]

He's a .275 - .290 hitter, plain an simple. He will obviously regress.  This is coming from a keeper of his for the last 4 years.

[Suikoden]

qmar, on 01 March 2013 - 08:41 AM, said:

He's a .275 - .290 hitter, plain an simple. He will obviously regress.  This is coming from a keeper of his for the last 4 years.

I'm thinking he hits 300, 28 and 95 but ups his SB to 32
It's either that or he smashes what he did last year and breaks out even more.

[Cephas]

I think last year was a natural progression.  His strikeout rate was also up last year, so I don't think he'll regress as much as some are predicting.  I see him hitting over .300.

[rag9876]

I acquired this guy a couple weeks ago in a trade, so I've been doing a bit of reading about him.  While critics will point to his super high BABIP last year, he also had one of the best hard contact rates in all of baseball.  Here's an excerpt from a recent ESPN article:

"Here is where it gets interesting, returning to the McCutchen example at the top. McCutchen was the only player in baseball to manage a top-10 ranking in both BABIP and hard-contact rate last season, the most compelling explanation for his .375 BABIP and resulting .327 batting average. Any argument against his ability to repeat the BABIP must, therefore, assumes he cannot repeat his hard-contact rate. That's a fair point to make, considering he has a .322 career hard-contact rate, but also one that ignores that he had a .352 number in the category in 2011."

Here's another excerpt from a Fangraphs article about his power surge:

"Wow, and I thought Andrew McCutchen had little chance to repeat that inflated HR/FB rate. That rate jumped by a bit more than 50% over 2011, so the knee-jerk reaction would be that it is due for regression, perhaps to a severe degree. But, aside from his appearance here, his average HR + FB distance climbed above 300 feet and ranked 8th among all hitters. In 2011, his distance ranked just 60th. So maybe his huge home run outburst was indeed for real."

He's also got a decently high career BABIP, great eye, is entering his athletic prime, and has vowed to become a more efficient base stealer.  I've got his mean projections at around .290/100/25/95/25 with .310+ 30+/30+ upside.

[qmar]

Suikoden, on 01 March 2013 - 08:47 AM, said:

qmar, on 01 March 2013 - 08:41 AM, said:

He's a .275 - .290 hitter, plain an simple. He will obviously regress.  This is coming from a keeper of his for the last 4 years.

I'm thinking he hits 300, 28 and 95 but ups his SB to 32
It's either that or he smashes what he did last year and breaks out even more.

Wow, you are very bullish than, either way.  I could see the 28, 95, and 32 but the .300 is a bit of a reach in my opinion.

[uspsjeter2]

qmar, on 01 March 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

Suikoden, on 01 March 2013 - 08:47 AM, said:

qmar, on 01 March 2013 - 08:41 AM, said:

He's a .275 - .290 hitter, plain an simple. He will obviously regress.  This is coming from a keeper of his for the last 4 years.

I'm thinking he hits 300, 28 and 95 but ups his SB to 32
It's either that or he smashes what he did last year and breaks out even more.

Wow, you are very bullish than, either way.  I could see the 28, 95, and 32 but the .300 is a bit of a reach in my opinion.

He had lingering knee pain in 2012 and he attempted fewer steals as the season wore on. I'm more concerned about reaching 20 steals than 30 HR or even .300 AVG.

[mevins31]

I don't think its a stretch to call him a .300 hitter

[NyMetsfan5]

i dont get why people are so low on him batting over 300? Stop with all the fancy statistics and watch some film of him. This guy will be at or over 300 for the rest of his prime

[CM52]

NyMetsfan5, on 03 March 2013 - 02:28 PM, said:

i dont get why people are so low on him batting over 300? Stop with all the fancy statistics and watch some film of him. This guy will be at or over 300 for the rest of his prime

Sorry BABIP is too "fancy" for you.

[Wombat]

Cargo is a good example of a guy with a similar profile who strikes out a lot but has repeatedly maintained a high BABIP (Coors aided though admittedly). Whether McCutchen is someone who will repeat this every year is up in the air though.  I would still take McCutchen in the first round, but I would put him at 10 overall which is the last of those top 10 consensus hitters.

Edited by Wombat, 03 March 2013 - 03:54 PM.

[klove42]

Wombat, on 03 March 2013 - 03:51 PM, said:

Cargo is a good example of a guy with a similar profile who strikes out a lot but has repeatedly maintained a high BABIP (Coors aided though admittedly). Whether McCutchen is someone who will repeat this every year is up in the air though.  I would still take McCutchen in the first round, but I would put him at 10 overall which is the last of those top 10 consensus hitters.

I agree here completely Wombat.