1431 replies to this topic

[The Czar]

I think I read someplace a few years ago that Albert didn't like people running while he was hitting because it is a distraction for him.  Some hitters don't like that as it will mess up their concentration, especially power hitters for some reason.  It could be that contact guys like the infielders in motion and have shorter strokes. Anyway, that would seem to have a lot to do with it, so it really doesn't matter what his contact and swing% data is compared to Hunter or Miggy if he just doesn't want Trout running.

[qmar]

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

2. For those that think Trout will look at the fact that he only has 8 SBs so far and says he needs to run more so he can get his SB's up, your not understanding baseball.  There are situations where a player will come out and say he believes it's better for the team if he runs more (McCutchen in the Spring this year).  Meaning the team is not hitting well enough (or has not hit well enough) to get into scoring position.

Edited by qmar, 16 May 2013 - 03:25 PM.

[MeisterT]

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

2. For those that think Trout will look at the fact that he only has 8 SBs so far and says he needs to run more so he can get his SB's up, your not understanding baseball.  There are situations where a player will come out and say he believes it's better for the team if he runs more (McCutchen in the Spring this year).  Meaning the team is not hitting well enough (or has not hit well enough) to get into scoring position.

Agree with all of the above, good post, but one reason LAA might want Pujols to take more pitches so Trout can run is that Albert is so banged up right now he's mostly a singles hitter, the guy just doesn't have his legs under him, so getting Trout into scoring position is more imperative than if Albert was healthy and lacing doubles all over the yard.

Anyway just mentioning this factor, if I was a manager I'd want Trout trying to get into scoring position in front of a severely hampered Albert right now, and it wouldn't be about SBs for SBs sake or anything like that

[Oriole Way]

The Czar, on 16 May 2013 - 01:43 PM, said:

I think I read someplace a few years ago that Albert didn't like people running while he was hitting because it is a distraction for him.  Some hitters don't like that as it will mess up their concentration, especially power hitters for some reason.  It could be that contact guys like the infielders in motion and have shorter strokes. Anyway, that would seem to have a lot to do with it, so it really doesn't matter what his contact and swing% data is compared to Hunter or Miggy if he just doesn't want Trout running.

Makes sense.  But this is why Trout should bat leadoff.  He will get on base at a much better clip than Aybar, he will open up a hole on the right side of the infield for Aybar to take advantage of, making Aybar a better hitter, and he will be able to steal more bases being on base without Pujols coming up next, which ultimately makes Pujols a better hitter because he will be coming up more often with easier RBI opportunities and hitting situations.

Scioscia is stupid, and he's hurting the team with his lineups.  Get Trout away from Pujols, and move Pujols down in the lineup.

Edited by Oriole Way, 16 May 2013 - 05:02 PM.

[Suikoden]

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

2. For those that think Trout will look at the fact that he only has 8 SBs so far and says he needs to run more so he can get his SB's up, your not understanding baseball.  There are situations where a player will come out and say he believes it's better for the team if he runs more (McCutchen in the Spring this year).  Meaning the team is not hitting well enough (or has not hit well enough) to get into scoring position.

Pooholes is getting paid $50 billion to shut his mouth and hit the ball.  If Trout wants to run, dammit, Trout will run.

[jb_power]

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

[Bodhizefa]

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

I decidedly agree with your point, jb, and would like to take it a bit further. The main reason for a team like the Angels to want Trout to steal more is because he's exceptionally good at it. His success rate last year was in the historically excellent range. His 89.6% career success rate ranks #1 on a list of lifetime stolen base percentages. If you have someone who is amazing at a skill -- a skill which adds a positive run probability to your team -- you make sure that player has the best opportunity to utilize that skill.

Trout's stolen bases help the Angels even more than they do fantasy owners.

[Mithrandir]

Bodhizefa, on 16 May 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

I decidedly agree with your point, jb, and would like to take it a bit further. The main reason for a team like the Angels to want Trout to steal more is because he's exceptionally good at it. His success rate last year was in the historically excellent range. His 89.6% career success rate ranks #1 on a list of lifetime stolen base percentages. If you have someone who is amazing at a skill -- a skill which adds a positive run probability to your team -- you make sure that player has the best opportunity to utilize that skill.

Trout's stolen bases help the Angels even more than they do fantasy owners.

Great stuff Bodz.  Does anyone ever throw these stats at managers and ask why they don't do what's best for the team?

[ballfan4141]

if this guy actually had the 400 million dollars behind him hitting he would be even doing better. even if vernon wells was playing like he is now for the yankees in their lineup he would benefit.

Edited by ballfan4141, 18 May 2013 - 10:25 AM.

[mcbane]

 Mithrandir, on 16 May 2013 - 08:34 PM, said:

 Bodhizefa, on 16 May 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

 jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

 qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

 jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

I decidedly agree with your point, jb, and would like to take it a bit further. The main reason for a team like the Angels to want Trout to steal more is because he's exceptionally good at it. His success rate last year was in the historically excellent range. His 89.6% career success rate ranks #1 on a list of lifetime stolen base percentages. If you have someone who is amazing at a skill -- a skill which adds a positive run probability to your team -- you make sure that player has the best opportunity to utilize that skill.

Trout's stolen bases help the Angels even more than they do fantasy owners.

Great stuff Bodz.  Does anyone ever throw these stats at managers and ask why they don't do what's best for the team?

Sort of. It's called MLB Now and Brian Kenny asks these questions and brings up these stats and Harold Reynolds gives nonsensical replies and then rants about how people asking these questions never played the game and Brian Kenny has an apoplectic rage seizure.

[Mithrandir]

mcbane, on 18 May 2013 - 10:35 AM, said:

Mithrandir, on 16 May 2013 - 08:34 PM, said:

Bodhizefa, on 16 May 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

I decidedly agree with your point, jb, and would like to take it a bit further. The main reason for a team like the Angels to want Trout to steal more is because he's exceptionally good at it. His success rate last year was in the historically excellent range. His 89.6% career success rate ranks #1 on a list of lifetime stolen base percentages. If you have someone who is amazing at a skill -- a skill which adds a positive run probability to your team -- you make sure that player has the best opportunity to utilize that skill.

Trout's stolen bases help the Angels even more than they do fantasy owners.

Great stuff Bodz.  Does anyone ever throw these stats at managers and ask why they don't do what's best for the team?

Sort of. It's called MLB Now and Brian Kenny asks these questions and brings up these stats and Harold Reynolds gives nonsensical replies and then rants about how people asking these questions never played the game and Brian Kenny has an apoplectic rage seizure.

I watch that show quite often.. I meant asking the managers point blank.

[mcbane]

 Mithrandir, on 18 May 2013 - 11:33 AM, said:

 mcbane, on 18 May 2013 - 10:35 AM, said:

 Mithrandir, on 16 May 2013 - 08:34 PM, said:

 Bodhizefa, on 16 May 2013 - 06:22 PM, said:

 jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

 qmar, on 16 May 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

 jb_power, on 16 May 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

How often you swing at a pitch is irrelevant.  The vital stat is how often you don't swing when there is a SB attempt in progress.

Sure, the batter is focused on the pitcher and his release point but he can also see whether or not the baserunner at 1B breaks on the pitch within his peripheral vision.  No matter who's hitting, if they see Trout breaking for 2B the should take with less than 2 strikes (unless a hit'n'run has been called).

Because you deserve to have your SB, right?  That's not how it works.  

1.  It's not often you will find a manager tell their hitter to NOT swing at a pitch they believe is in the zone b/c a guy is stealing.  The point of a game is not to acquire the most SBs.  In a situation where a baserunner is stealing, if the hitter gets a pitch in his zone and gets a hit, the baserunner automatically moves on to third because of the early jump.  If it's a double, it's an easy run.  If it's a ground ball to the shortstop, it could easily break up a double play.

Totally disagree with you qmar.

I never said my point was to accumulate SBs (for Trout or any other top notch SB threat).  The main point of stealing a base is to get into better scoring position and improve your teams chances of scoring a run ... more runs than the other team leads to Ws.

When a team has a highly successful SB threat on 1B do you think the team Manager said "you go ahead and swing at whatever you like" to hitters following Ricky Henderson, Lou Brock, Vince Coleman, etc ... I think not.

I decidedly agree with your point, jb, and would like to take it a bit further. The main reason for a team like the Angels to want Trout to steal more is because he's exceptionally good at it. His success rate last year was in the historically excellent range. His 89.6% career success rate ranks #1 on a list of lifetime stolen base percentages. If you have someone who is amazing at a skill -- a skill which adds a positive run probability to your team -- you make sure that player has the best opportunity to utilize that skill.

Trout's stolen bases help the Angels even more than they do fantasy owners.

Great stuff Bodz.  Does anyone ever throw these stats at managers and ask why they don't do what's best for the team?

Sort of. It's called MLB Now and Brian Kenny asks these questions and brings up these stats and Harold Reynolds gives nonsensical replies and then rants about how people asking these questions never played the game and Brian Kenny has an apoplectic rage seizure.

I watch that show quite often.. I meant asking the managers point blank.

Not really that sort of question. I don't think a lot of reporters use sabermetrics, or really look into why a teams successful. For example on the pregame show for the Giants today one of the "keys to success" was knowing where to throw the ball on a double play because Bumgarner messed that up yesterday. Yes. That's a systemic problem, or a useful metric, to understand why the Giants lost yesterday. Another example would be the Mets broadcast team (Keith Hernandez and Unknown Jabroni) accusing Lucas Duda of being selfish by taking walks. My favorite might be something posted on Razzball where the Kansas City telecast put up a graphic with league BABIP leaders listed.  I think you'd only see something like this asked when we're several months into a season and numbers are dramatically down, which they aren't for Trout. I don't see too many reporters pick out patterns and correlations like that very often.