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2013 Season Industry Mock Draft Results


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#1 DKOA R

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:36 PM

Hey all on the fantasy baseball fourms! Over at couchmanagers.com they have a early season industry mock draft going. It's a 12 team & slow mock(8 hours). They are playing with 2 catchers, 5 OF's, must start 5 SP's & 2 RP's. They have not clarified if its a roto or H2H style scoring and I am assuming they are playing standard 5*5.

Here are the results of the first round
1.) M. Cabrera
2.) R. Braun
3.) M. Trout
4.) R. Cano
5.) A. Pujols
6.) J. Votto
7.) M. Kemp
8.) A. McCutchen
9.) B. Posey
10.) P. Fielder
11.) G. Stanton
12.) A. Beltre

I would like to read what you all think of how this first round broke down.

How would you rank Cabrera, Braun & Trout this year?

Is Robinson Cano a good pick at four?

Is Buster Posey a first round pick? And if so worthy of a top 9 pick?

Do you see any player(s) that you feel should not be considered for the first round? If so who do
you think should have gone before them?

Oh and on a side note if this gets you in the mood to participate in a mock draft. I have created one over at the same site. Just follow the link below.
http://www.couchmana...?draftnum=24388
The password is rwmd1

Edited by DKOA R, 04 December 2012 - 01:39 PM.


#2 v0dka

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 01:48 PM

Pick No. 4 is the absolute worst spot in the draft. It's tough deciding between Kemp, Cano, McCutchen or even Votto when any of these guys could possibly fall to you at a lower spot in the draft. I'd probably go Cano right now too though.
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#3 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:04 PM

I don't like the 4 at all, but I like Cano at 4 -- safer than Kemp, McCutchen. The 7-9 picks seem like the best range this year, you'll be able to get one of Cano, Kemp, McCutchen, Votto, Pujols, or Prince and still be able to grab a stud SP or Best Hitter Available in the 2nd.

#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:19 PM

Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.
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#5 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:50 PM

Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.


I agree, I've got Posey mid-2nd (16th-18th range), but he is different than a standard catcher because of his Batting Average. It's the high picks on the Santana/Napoli batting average drains that usually turns people away -- but in all honestly Posey is nearly as valuable as some of the top hitters, regardless of position. In that case, I tend to overlook the injury potential a little more than I would on some like the Santana/Napoli guys.

#6 DKOA R

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 02:58 PM

After each pick the other drafter can vote if it was a good or bad pick.

As of now the player getting most bad pick is G. Stanton with zero good & five bad. One drafter said because he will have to hot 60 HR's to reach 100 RBI's. Another drafter said he is an OF that does not steal bases and his lineup will cause him not to see pitches.

Prince Fielder has zero good pick and three bad picks. Posey and Pujols both are tied for third with no good votes and two bad votes.

#7 brockpapersizer

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 03:06 PM


Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.


I agree, I've got Posey mid-2nd (16th-18th range), but he is different than a standard catcher because of his Batting Average. It's the high picks on the Santana/Napoli batting average drains that usually turns people away -- but in all honestly Posey is nearly as valuable as some of the top hitters, regardless of position. In that case, I tend to overlook the injury potential a little more than I would on some like the Santana/Napoli guys.


I don't doubt that he should be the first catcher taken, but I wouldn't touch him in round 2 either. Catchers get hurt often! If you look at the list of the first catchers drafted by ADP over the last few years.... its bad.

Yes if he puts up last year's numbers it's a decent 2nd round pick. I'll pass on it though. I think you're much better off waiting and getting Perez. Mcann is going to be a great bounceback candidate. And if it's just for batting average, Joe Mauer/Yadi is someone you can get at least 3-4 rounds later. I'm a firm believer in finding value on a catcher later. Rounds 1-3 is just too early, rather get some boppers or some Aces.
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#8 baltimore_boy

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:11 PM



Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.


I agree, I've got Posey mid-2nd (16th-18th range), but he is different than a standard catcher because of his Batting Average. It's the high picks on the Santana/Napoli batting average drains that usually turns people away -- but in all honestly Posey is nearly as valuable as some of the top hitters, regardless of position. In that case, I tend to overlook the injury potential a little more than I would on some like the Santana/Napoli guys.


I don't doubt that he should be the first catcher taken, but I wouldn't touch him in round 2 either. Catchers get hurt often! If you look at the list of the first catchers drafted by ADP over the last few years.... its bad.

Yes if he puts up last year's numbers it's a decent 2nd round pick. I'll pass on it though. I think you're much better off waiting and getting Perez. Mcann is going to be a great bounceback candidate. And if it's just for batting average, Joe Mauer/Yadi is someone you can get at least 3-4 rounds later. I'm a firm believer in finding value on a catcher later. Rounds 1-3 is just too early, rather get some boppers or some Aces.


Or aim for a high upside guy like Rosario. The catching class is so deep, it doesn't make much sense to take one early. You might as well wait until you are near the end because there are so many lower down guys that are solid that come later in drafts.
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#9 WahooManiac

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 10:37 PM

Being a two C league I supp one could make a case for buster there. Still, thats early
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#10 DKOA R

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:24 PM

I am surprised nobody brought up Adrian Beltre. Over at the host site he sits as the 10th overall player on the board. I don't believe he belongs in consideration for a first round pick. What do you all feel about him and is he a first round pick for you in 2013?

#11 jamie

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 01:21 PM

Maybe not a 1st round pick, but he was a top 15 hitter last year, which makes him a solid 2nd round pick.

#12 jsp2014

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:37 PM

Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.



can't believe an "expert" would take a catcher round 1, especially an NL catcher who can't get rested at DH. I'd pretty much need a catcher to go 40/120 the prior year for me to take him in the 1st.

taking catchers early is one of those things that looks great on paper and spreadsheets, but rarely works out as planned.

Edited by jsp2014, 05 December 2012 - 02:40 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#13 jsp2014

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:39 PM

I am surprised nobody brought up Adrian Beltre. Over at the host site he sits as the 10th overall player on the board. I don't believe he belongs in consideration for a first round pick. What do you all feel about him and is he a first round pick for you in 2013?



he'll be 34 basically all season. I think we need to factor in some regression.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#14 jsp2014

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:51 PM


I am surprised nobody brought up Adrian Beltre. Over at the host site he sits as the 10th overall player on the board. I don't believe he belongs in consideration for a first round pick. What do you all feel about him and is he a first round pick for you in 2013?



he'll be 34 basically all season. I think we need to factor in some regression.


I actually misread and thought you meant he should be higher than 10. he's got 3 straight 100+ RBI seasons, averaging 32 HR, 87 R, and about .314 over the last 3 years. the offense/park helps pad his downside as well. his stat line looks a lot like an older Robinson Cano. late 1st/early 2nd sounds about right.

Edited by jsp2014, 05 December 2012 - 02:52 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#15 jsp2014

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 03:00 PM

call me stubborn but I would probably take Longo in the 1st... again.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#16 parrothead

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 03:20 PM


Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.


I agree, I've got Posey mid-2nd (16th-18th range), but he is different than a standard catcher because of his Batting Average. It's the high picks on the Santana/Napoli batting average drains that usually turns people away -- but in all honestly Posey is nearly as valuable as some of the top hitters, regardless of position. In that case, I tend to overlook the injury potential a little more than I would on some like the Santana/Napoli guys.

It is a 2-catcher league though, so getting an elite one can be valuable, especially if many of the guys you like are of somewhat of a value play, then maybe you take Posey 1st round knowing he might not get back to you in 2nd - where as you might like undervalued guys later.
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#17 brockpapersizer

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:17 PM



Drafting a catcher in round 1 is just dumb.


I agree, I've got Posey mid-2nd (16th-18th range), but he is different than a standard catcher because of his Batting Average. It's the high picks on the Santana/Napoli batting average drains that usually turns people away -- but in all honestly Posey is nearly as valuable as some of the top hitters, regardless of position. In that case, I tend to overlook the injury potential a little more than I would on some like the Santana/Napoli guys.

It is a 2-catcher league though, so getting an elite one can be valuable, especially if many of the guys you like are of somewhat of a value play, then maybe you take Posey 1st round knowing he might not get back to you in 2nd - where as you might like undervalued guys later.


my main league is a 2 catcher roto league. Still dumb. You win by making good catcher picks later, not locking up solid production in a catcher spot. In 2 catcher leagues you can easily win by "tanking" catchers" getting 2 starters late and hoping one pans out. People got a head up in these leagues by drafting AJ Ellis and Ruiz late... or stashing Perez. The best catcher in 2012 by ADP was AJ Pyrzenski.... not Posey.


You're paying for last years Posey's stats. While he's a great hitter, I'd be hard pressed to project him at .330. He will likely have some sort of regression in his numbers next year and that isn't even touching the risk of going all in on a position that is affected the most by injuries.


It's just something I'd never do or recommend anyone do. Joe Mauer was far mor established than Posey and was coming off a better year in 2010.
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#18 DKOA R

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:50 PM



I am surprised nobody brought up Adrian Beltre. Over at the host site he sits as the 10th overall player on the board. I don't believe he belongs in consideration for a first round pick. What do you all feel about him and is he a first round pick for you in 2013?



he'll be 34 basically all season. I think we need to factor in some regression.


I actually misread and thought you meant he should be higher than 10. he's got 3 straight 100+ RBI seasons, averaging 32 HR, 87 R, and about .314 over the last 3 years. the offense/park helps pad his downside as well. his stat line looks a lot like an older Robinson Cano. late 1st/early 2nd sounds about right.


You look at his runs over the last three years and he has not top more then 84 in two of the three. You would have to go back all the way to 2004 when he had more then 88 runs in a season. His BABIP was noticeably higher then 2011(.46) difference. So I am expecting that regress and also bring back his AVG to below .300 He is going to be 34 years old and I don't see him hitting 30+ HR's in 2013.

It is still early and we have a while till we get a real feel for ADP for the new year. That being said if he is going to be drafted in in the late first or early second round. I will not be comfortable with drafting Adrain Beltre in 2013.

Edited by DKOA R, 05 December 2012 - 11:51 PM.


#19 jsp2014

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 10:53 AM




I am surprised nobody brought up Adrian Beltre. Over at the host site he sits as the 10th overall player on the board. I don't believe he belongs in consideration for a first round pick. What do you all feel about him and is he a first round pick for you in 2013?



he'll be 34 basically all season. I think we need to factor in some regression.


I actually misread and thought you meant he should be higher than 10. he's got 3 straight 100+ RBI seasons, averaging 32 HR, 87 R, and about .314 over the last 3 years. the offense/park helps pad his downside as well. his stat line looks a lot like an older Robinson Cano. late 1st/early 2nd sounds about right.


You look at his runs over the last three years and he has not top more then 84 in two of the three. You would have to go back all the way to 2004 when he had more then 88 runs in a season. His BABIP was noticeably higher then 2011(.46) difference. So I am expecting that regress and also bring back his AVG to below .300 He is going to be 34 years old and I don't see him hitting 30+ HR's in 2013.

It is still early and we have a while till we get a real feel for ADP for the new year. That being said if he is going to be drafted in in the late first or early second round. I will not be comfortable with drafting Adrain Beltre in 2013.



meh you're just cherry picking to prove a pre-determined idea. I'm just looking at 3 year averages. that tends to smooth out the peaks and valleys, and it's an unbiased sample. he was on the Mariners and playing half his games at Safeco for a long time. he's been a legitimate beast since he started playing for real offenses in hitters parks.

last 3 years averaged out:
Cano - 30 HR, 5 SB, 104 R, 107 RBI, .311 AVG
Beltre - 32 HR, 1 SB, 87 R, 103 RBI, .313 AVG

I think most people would probably be surprised to see how well Beltre stacks up. I'd rather have Cano but people are looking at him middle-1st. Beltre is pretty old and should be expected to regress. but it's hard to argue that he should be taken a full round after Cano.
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#20 FouLLine

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:42 PM

meh you're just cherry picking to prove a pre-determined idea. I'm just looking at 3 year averages. that tends to smooth out the peaks and valleys, and it's an unbiased sample. he was on the Mariners and playing half his games at Safeco for a long time. he's been a legitimate beast since he started playing for real offenses in hitters parks.

last 3 years averaged out:
Cano - 30 HR, 5 SB, 104 R, 107 RBI, .311 AVG
Beltre - 32 HR, 1 SB, 87 R, 103 RBI, .313 AVG

I think most people would probably be surprised to see how well Beltre stacks up. I'd rather have Cano but people are looking at him middle-1st. Beltre is pretty old and should be expected to regress. but it's hard to argue that he should be taken a full round after Cano.


I do agree Beltre was terribly under rated last year. But I still wouldn't touch him in the first 2 rounds. Maybe late 3rd. But I'm more of an upside guy. Beltre is probably going to hit around 30 with 100 RBI and OPS in the high 800's even after some regression. But like I said personally I look for guys who I feel will out do their last season.

But things to consider with this comparison of Cano and Beltre.

First off Cano is a second baseman. So that is why he gets more fantasy respect.

Cano is just better, yeah Beltre puts up a closer comparison than people think or are willing to give credit for but Cano is the better player at the much scarcer position.

As pointed out Beltre will be 34, Cano will only be 30. Beltre is also coming off of a career year (if you don't count his 2004 season). I honestly don't even expect him to reproduce his 3 year average let alone his last year's numbers.

Cano more than 3 years younger has far better career numbers.