74 replies to this topic

[parrothead]

With regards to Bryce Harper, I agree with some of the earlier sentiments by mid March, he will be averaging in the teens probably IDP, I think you could see people reaching early 2nd on him, so if you want him, you think he is gonna breakout and want to see it on your team, you need to go in 2nd round it looks like.

[klove42]

ballfan4141, on 22 January 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

look at ray flowers from fantasy drives team.

Yeah I was stunned at it too. I think upton went too early, he does the same every year but for some reason this year he got drafted at least 30 picks earlier? And Prado and Cabrera back to back just killed his team

[RespectMyAuthority]

Just started my first draft of the year, $375, 15-team, 50-round slow draft -- no Free Agent moves during the year, just set your weekly lineup.  The Trout hype is dying a little, that's 2 drafts in a row I've seen him go 4th.

Top 6 (so far):
1. Miggy
2. Braun
3. Cano
4. Trout
5. McCutchen
6. Prince

[PRoSPx]

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

How would you rank Cabrera, Braun & Trout this year?

1. Braun
2. Cabrera
3. Trout

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

Is Robinson Cano a good pick at four?

I think Cano is the only pick at 4.  Honestly the next 5 OFs are very similar Kamp, CarGo, McCutchen,  

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

Is Buster Posey a first round pick? And if so worthy of a top 9 pick?

No that's very early for a catcher.  They pose far too much injury risk and get less gross production.  I love Posey going into 2013 but I am not using a first round pick.

DKOA R, on 04 December 2012 - 01:36 PM, said:

Do you see any player(s) that you feel should not be considered for the first round? If so who do
you think should have gone before them?

Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton off the top of my head.  Adrian Beltre doesn't even crack my top 20.

[Ben Edelman]

RespectMyAuthority, on 22 January 2013 - 01:38 PM, said:

The Braun-Verlander-Reyes start from the 1-spot is a dream.  This league hates pitchers though, many of these drafters are very stubborn "I will not take a pitcher" early types.  Kershaw (22), Verlander (26) and Strasburg (34) is about as late as you'll see that trio go this year in a standard league.

Don't forget about Dickey in the 9th and Anibal in the 14th.  That's a monster rotation of Verlander-Dickey-Anderson-Anibal-Burnett-Fiers (I don't consider Luebke, Maholm or Kendrick to be much more than filler).  Three catchers was a bit weird, though, with Brantly, D'Arnaud, Ianneta.

[Ben Edelman]

klove42, on 22 January 2013 - 04:14 PM, said:

ballfan4141, on 22 January 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

look at ray flowers from fantasy drives team.

Yeah I was stunned at it too. I think upton went too early, he does the same every year but for some reason this year he got drafted at least 30 picks earlier? And Prado and Cabrera back to back just killed his team

I don't have a problem with this team, although BJ in the 3rd was a stretch.  Some really great upside picks later on, though.  Three bonafide closers in Hanrahan, Grilli, and Putz.  Huge upside with Lincecum in the 11th, Volquez in the 25th, Youkilis in the 14th, Hudson in the 16th.  One or two of those picks will pay off.

Maybe too much speed (Cutch, Hanley, BJ, Coco, Span, CBY) but that's fixable.

[PRoSPx]

RespectMyAuthority, on 22 January 2013 - 01:38 PM, said:

The Braun-Verlander-Reyes start from the 1-spot is a dream.  This league hates pitchers though, many of these drafters are very stubborn "I will not take a pitcher" early types.  Kershaw (22), Verlander (26) and Strasburg (34) is about as late as you'll see that trio go this year in a standard league.

Yeah I'm very stubborn with drafting pitchers and I'd easily take any of those guys the pick before they went in this league.  Pretty crazy how late those first 3 pitchers lasted.

[Zumayaaaa]

cowbell204, on 22 January 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

I was listening on Sirius last night, and it lost all credibility when Harper went 17th overall. For the most part these people are no more experts than the people on here.

Its a little bit of a reach, but his projections look almost the exact same as J-Heyward. In fact, I'd prefer Bryce due to his better contact rates and sky high upside.

[PRoSPx]

Zumayaaaa, on 22 January 2013 - 09:29 PM, said:

cowbell204, on 22 January 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

I was listening on Sirius last night, and it lost all credibility when Harper went 17th overall. For the most part these people are no more experts than the people on here.

Its a little bit of a reach, but his projections look almost the exact same as J-Heyward.

That would be a huge reach for either of them.  Harper went 32nd and that's a fair value.  I wouldn't be looking for either of these guys until the 30th pick.  Spring performances could change this.

[Zumayaaaa]

PRoSPx, on 22 January 2013 - 09:39 PM, said:

Zumayaaaa, on 22 January 2013 - 09:29 PM, said:

cowbell204, on 22 January 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

I was listening on Sirius last night, and it lost all credibility when Harper went 17th overall. For the most part these people are no more experts than the people on here.

Its a little bit of a reach, but his projections look almost the exact same as J-Heyward.

That would be a huge reach for either of them.  Harper went 32nd and that's a fair value.  I wouldn't be looking for either of these guys until the 30th pick.  Spring performances could change this.

Still its erroneous to call it a huge reach, its basically a round. If you want a guy, you can either take him in the 2nd or wait and *hope* he gets back to you in the 3rd where it would be better value but you also risk the chance of losing him. I used to be the guy always drafting for value, but more recently, I prescribe to the Total Control draft method. Basically you have a list of guys you want and you go get them, value is still important but its not the be all end all. My cheat sheet for a draft these days is basically 3-5 players at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and maybe 2-3 times that for SP/OF in addition to a few end gamers at various positions. The rest of the players mean nothing to me.

[PRoSPx]

Zumayaaaa, on 23 January 2013 - 12:25 AM, said:

PRoSPx, on 22 January 2013 - 09:39 PM, said:

Zumayaaaa, on 22 January 2013 - 09:29 PM, said:

cowbell204, on 22 January 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

I was listening on Sirius last night, and it lost all credibility when Harper went 17th overall. For the most part these people are no more experts than the people on here.

Its a little bit of a reach, but his projections look almost the exact same as J-Heyward.

That would be a huge reach for either of them.  Harper went 32nd and that's a fair value.  I wouldn't be looking for either of these guys until the 30th pick.  Spring performances could change this.

Still its erroneous to call it a huge reach, its basically a round. If you want a guy, you can either take him in the 2nd or wait and *hope* he gets back to you in the 3rd where it would be better value but you also risk the chance of losing him. I used to be the guy always drafting for value, but more recently, I prescribe to the Total Control draft method. Basically you have a list of guys you want and you go get them, value is still important but its not the be all end all. My cheat sheet for a draft these days is basically 3-5 players at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and maybe 2-3 times that for SP/OF in addition to a few end gamers at various positions. The rest of the players mean nothing to me.

That makes all the difference.  Taking a player 17th compared to 32nd?  It's nearly double the ADP.  Me personally, I wouldn't touch Heyward or Harper until around 30.  Like I said we will see what spring brings.

[jb_power]

Zumayaaaa, on 23 January 2013 - 12:25 AM, said:

Still its erroneous to call it a huge reach, its basically a round. If you want a guy, you can either take him in the 2nd or wait and *hope* he gets back to you in the 3rd where it would be better value but you also risk the chance of losing him. I used to be the guy always drafting for value, but more recently, I prescribe to the Total Control draft method. Basically you have a list of guys you want and you go get them, value is still important but its not the be all end all. My cheat sheet for a draft these days is basically 3-5 players at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and maybe 2-3 times that for SP/OF in addition to a few end gamers at various positions. The rest of the players mean nothing to me.

Pretty much the same as my philosophy for drafting.  I basically ignore ADP and only reference it to see where my "draftable" players are going.

[klove42]

jb_power, on 23 January 2013 - 08:07 AM, said:

Zumayaaaa, on 23 January 2013 - 12:25 AM, said:

Still its erroneous to call it a huge reach, its basically a round. If you want a guy, you can either take him in the 2nd or wait and *hope* he gets back to you in the 3rd where it would be better value but you also risk the chance of losing him. I used to be the guy always drafting for value, but more recently, I prescribe to the Total Control draft method. Basically you have a list of guys you want and you go get them, value is still important but its not the be all end all. My cheat sheet for a draft these days is basically 3-5 players at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS and maybe 2-3 times that for SP/OF in addition to a few end gamers at various positions. The rest of the players mean nothing to me.

Pretty much the same as my philosophy for drafting.  I basically ignore ADP and only reference it to see where my "draftable" players are going.

This is my philosophy as well. I usually rank my own players and compare them to other rankings that I respect and trust (so basically not Matt Berry). Then I reference ADP to see where these players are going and look for values. If I believe a player should go above this value then I take him where I can grab him, especially if he wont last till my next pick. In the case of Harper, maybe the guy valued him very highly, and wanted to reach for him a little because he truly believed he wouldnt make it till his next pick. But taking someone at 17 when their early ADP is 32 is not bad at all. Most likely his ADP will also rise too.

[trojans888]

http://www.rtsports....labr-al-auction

http://www.rtsports....labr-nl-auction

[ipstaff]

Awesome.  Thanks for the LABR links!

Top salary in the NL:  Braun, $40.  Pitcher:  Kershaw, $32.
Top salary in the AL: Trout, $42.  (Cabrera, $40).  Pitcher: Verlander, $31.

Twenty bucks for Jean Segura... yoinks.  Speed kills (your budget).

$35 for Bryce Harper... a buck less than Kemp and Stanton; a buck more than McCutchen.  That's banking on a Trout-like breakout this season.

Kyle Lohse for a buck in NL-only... I'm not high on Lohse overall but even I would take that action in hopes he catches on with an NL team.

$14 for Brandon League and $10 for Kenley Jansen means the likely Dodgers saves go for a dollar more than the $23 it costs for Kimbrel.

$16 on Lincecum, vs. $14 on Gallardo, $15 on Latos, $19 for Gio, or $20 on Greinke or Bumgarner.  Not much of a "2012 was crap" discount.

Interesting to see the mix of "stars and scrubs" vs. "length and depth" at play, and pitching/hitting mix variability, too.  Teams are all over the map.