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Shane Victorino 2013 OutlookSigned 3 yrs w/Boston, is he the next overpaid/rated BOS FA OF?


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#1 ChrisFarley

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 06:54 PM

Reports have come out that Shane Victorino agreed to a 3 year deal with the Boston Red Sox.

What kind of numbers do you think he'll put up in Boston?

#2 bigbatter

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 07:28 PM

Top 25 OFer numbers would be my guess.

#3 LyondellBasell

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Posted 04 December 2012 - 11:37 PM

jesus. what is boston doing? victorino? they are lost. i wouldn't touch this guy switching leagues.
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#4 phizzics

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 12:42 AM

I'm seeing Carl Crawford Part Deux.

#5 dzemens

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:37 AM

View Postphizzics, on 05 December 2012 - 12:42 AM, said:

I'm seeing Carl Crawford Part Deux.

Expectations coming in will be lower, so that would be hard to do. But they certainly seemed to pay a lot for him. The market is really driving prices up as teams spend the TV money thats en route.
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#6 Chubbles

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 03:54 PM

Where do people think he'll hit in the lineup?
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#7 damana

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:31 PM

View PostChubbles, on 05 December 2012 - 03:54 PM, said:

Where do people think he'll hit in the lineup?

I think that depends on what they do with Ellsbury.  If he gets traded, Victorino will hit 1st.  If not I could see him hitting second with Pedroia sliding to the 3 spot maybe.  I don't think they want to have the same issue that they had with Crawford in regards to him hitting 6th or 7th.  I think with this signing they almost have to trade Ells.
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#8 ChrisFarley

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:35 AM

I'd expect 90+ runs, .275+ avg, 15-18 homers, 70 rbi, 30+ sb.  Where would he rank with these numbers?  Top 30?

#9 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 03:22 AM

The big question for him will be how does he hit righties this year. Using fangraphs.com, his base running and fielding helped give him a 3.3 WAR, and was worth $14.7 million by their metrics. He will be 32 for the entire season, and they will have him for his ages 32-34 season. Baseball prime is considered ages 27-33 (personally I feel safer saying 27-31) so even if he is on the decline is he plays solid D, steals some bags, and hits righties better he will justify the contract. As a right fielder he is less valuable because that is considered more of a power position. My personal hope is that Ellsbury is dealt for pitching help so the slick fielding Victorino can play center, which will also help justify the contract.

As for fantasy, the last 4 years he has alternated good and bad averages vs righties. IF he can hit righties at a .260+ pace, which is what I will project because I think going back to a smaller park in Boston, like Philly (he did pretty poor in LA), it will help keep his average afloat. If he can be the player from 2009 or 2011 with regards to obp, his runs should be high even though I don't think he hits too high in the line-up, unless the Sox want to bat Pedroia 3rd. His speed and stolen base rate was awesome even during his stint with the Dodgers. Overall, he is someone I will target in my AL-Only league (which is auction). As for the more traditional mixed-league snake draft, he would appear to be a nice 3rd outfielder to have, possibly playing like a high #2. Like I said though, this hinges on him hitting righties. If he does, you have yourself a bargain. If he doesn't, his steals should give him value but his lower average and power would make him more of a 4th or 5th outfielder.

Projection: 145 games, .274 average, 13 homers, 58 rbi, 27 steals, 88 runs. I do think he can improve on all these projections.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 06 December 2012 - 03:24 AM.


#10 Chubbles

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 02:23 PM

I agree, I would target him as a 3rd outfielder
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#11 cyberer

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 12:19 AM

As a Phils fan, I really don't like Victorino in real baseball. However, everyone and their brother is talking about what a down year victorino had last year largely because the phillies were so bad. However looking at his numbers he had 39 SBs, double digit HRs and an OPS above .700. I'm not really seeing any reason to be bearish here, especially hitting in Fenway now.

Am I crazy to think he's a pretty awesome value at his price?
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#12 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:48 PM

View Postphizzics, on 05 December 2012 - 12:42 AM, said:

I'm seeing Carl Crawford Part Deux.

How so?  Victorino won't come with nearly as high of expectations.  Also he probably won't suck nearly as bad.

#13 ChrisFarley

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 09:21 PM

View Postcyberer, on 22 December 2012 - 12:19 AM, said:

As a Phils fan, I really don't like Victorino in real baseball. However, everyone and their brother is talking about what a down year victorino had last year largely because the phillies were so bad. However looking at his numbers he had 39 SBs, double digit HRs and an OPS above .700. I'm not really seeing any reason to be bearish here, especially hitting in Fenway now.

Am I crazy to think he's a pretty awesome value at his price?

I'm with you dude.  I think he'll have a solid season and put up numbers worth above his ADP. (15+ homers and 30+ sb)

#14 FouLLine

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 10:42 PM

View PostChrisFarley, on 30 December 2012 - 09:21 PM, said:

View Postcyberer, on 22 December 2012 - 12:19 AM, said:

As a Phils fan, I really don't like Victorino in real baseball. However, everyone and their brother is talking about what a down year victorino had last year largely because the phillies were so bad. However looking at his numbers he had 39 SBs, double digit HRs and an OPS above .700. I'm not really seeing any reason to be bearish here, especially hitting in Fenway now.

Am I crazy to think he's a pretty awesome value at his price?

I'm with you dude.  I think he'll have a solid season and put up numbers worth above his ADP. (15+ homers and 30+ sb)

Yeah, he's got upside for more too.

#15 nittanychris

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:32 PM

The man is only 32 years-old and people are talking like he is 38. Speed has always been a significant part of his game so I don't see him getting under 30 SBs. Fenway could give him a few more HRs, so maybe he winds up with 14 to 16 HRs. Hitting 2nd in the Red Sox lineup he should score a good deal of runs.

Reasonable projections:    14 HRs, 65 RBI, 88 Runs, 32 SBs and .268 avg

Given that people may be down on him with the league switch he may present the opportunity for some nice value, especially in AL Only Leagues.

#16 lightning1233

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:41 PM

View Postnittanychris, on 17 February 2013 - 04:32 PM, said:

The man is only 32 years-old and people are talking like he is 38. Speed has always been a significant part of his game so I don't see him getting under 30 SBs. Fenway could give him a few more HRs, so maybe he winds up with 14 to 16 HRs. Hitting 2nd in the Red Sox lineup he should score a good deal of runs.

Reasonable projections: 14 HRs, 65 RBI, 88 Runs, 32 SBs and .268 avg

Given that people may be down on him with the league switch he may present the opportunity for some nice value, especially in AL Only Leagues.
For some reason, I have never been high on him. He puts up the numbers, but I always wanted a higher average. I think your projections are very good.

#17 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:58 AM

View Postlightning1233, on 17 February 2013 - 05:41 PM, said:

View Postnittanychris, on 17 February 2013 - 04:32 PM, said:

The man is only 32 years-old and people are talking like he is 38. Speed has always been a significant part of his game so I don't see him getting under 30 SBs. Fenway could give him a few more HRs, so maybe he winds up with 14 to 16 HRs. Hitting 2nd in the Red Sox lineup he should score a good deal of runs.

Reasonable projections: 14 HRs, 65 RBI, 88 Runs, 32 SBs and .268 avg

Given that people may be down on him with the league switch he may present the opportunity for some nice value, especially in AL Only Leagues.
For some reason, I have never been high on him. He puts up the numbers, but I always wanted a higher average. I think your projections are very good.
Yeah Victorino isn't really a guy who is likely to out produce your expectations but he is a very safe bet to meet your expectations.

#18 malta69

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:22 AM

I'm not exactly bullish, and Victorino is a guy who I've seldomly owned since A.) he always went a round or two early in my local drafts due to the market and B.) his hot/cold streaks can drive you to drink.  That said, he could represent quite a bit of a bargain as a #3 OF this year, as opposed to the low end #2 OF range he seems to get drafted in the previous seasons.  I think I'll be owning him on a couple of squads this year if that ADP remains steady.
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#19 PRoSPx

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 01:53 AM

View Postmalta69, on 18 February 2013 - 10:22 AM, said:

I'm not exactly bullish, and Victorino is a guy who I've seldomly owned since A.) he always went a round or two early in my local drafts due to the market and B.) his hot/cold streaks can drive you to drink.  That said, he could represent quite a bit of a bargain as a #3 OF this year, as opposed to the low end #2 OF range he seems to get drafted in the previous seasons.  I think I'll be owning him on a couple of squads this year if that ADP remains steady.

His ADP right now seems fair.  He's a safer pick than other OFs going around him.

#20 supac720

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 02:24 AM

I agree, and I actually don't feel the league change will hurt him one bit. He needs to be in a hitters park, and he is in BOS. As someone else espoused on this thread, he won't outproduce expectations but he won't tank either.




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