Posted 08 December 2012 - 03:15 AM
I will probably wait till February until I actually start ranking players, but a couple of my thoughts on the 1b.
There is no clear-cut #1 1b. Votto's knee is a concern as he had absolutely no power when he came back. Will it bother him this year? He also has only 1 season with over 30 homers. Pujols was awesome in the 4 middle months, not so awesome in April or September. His 2nd year in LA will he make a strong comeback? Personally, I think so. Fielder is great and has that same "settled in with his team for his second season" deal, and it's possible he improves this year. Last year he didn't score many runs but with V-Mart and Hunter potentially to hit behind him, his runs may climb. The #1 debate is between them 3, most likely, and I'd put them Pujols, Fielder, Votto.
With Teixeira, you are basically guaranteed big time power stats if he is healthy. Average can change year to year based on a little luck, so while his average looks like a dead weight he could easily hit .275+ as he has numerous times in years past. I would put him MUCH higher.
A-Gonz power seems to have evaporated, however with Crawford Kemp Either Hanley around him, he'll have plenty of rbi chances and maybe his 2nd year (and 1st full year) in LA helps regenerate him. .300/25/115 seems do-able.
I will be one of the people that either kicks himself for passing on Edwin Encarnacion, or smiling for staying away.
Goldschmidt is a .300+ hitter waiting to happen. He has a very high line-drive rate and babip. He hit .300+ at every stop in the minors (remember, he skipped over triple AAA). He may great strides cutting down his k-rate last year. You're better off penciling him in for 12-15 steals than around 20, but a .310 average with 25 homers could happen.
Eric Hosmer may suck this year, but he will be undervalued. Very rarely do players do what he did in 2011, at the age of 21, and then just start sucking. He has a pedigree to go with that success. There is no positive trend from last year to carry to this year, and his fly ball rate is terrible, as well as his average vs lefties. However, if is ADP creeps down to #20 overall 1b range, you need to take a chance on his talent.