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Will Middlebrooks 2013 Outlook


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#1 ChrisFarley

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:32 PM

His promising start to his MLB career was cut short abruptly due to a broken wrist. He will be good to go by spring training from what I've read. How do you guys think he'll perform this year? He doesn't walk much, and Ks a little too much. However, he's got legit pop, and if he hits in the middle of the Bosox lineup (5th or 6th), I could see him getting 20-25 homers and 90+ RBI. Batting avg might be on the low side (ie .260-.270).

What do you guys think?

#2 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 11:09 PM

This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years. He had a high line-drive rate but still a .335 babip should come down, not too much though if he can maintain a 21%+ line drive rate. His k % is a big high, so that growth or regression in that will help determine his average as well. His power is legit, this is a perennial 30 homer guy waiting to happen. He will need to walk more in order to score more, because his obp is nothing special. I liken his overall offensive game to Evan Longoria a lot, including his steals. Much like Longoria, Middlebrooks has always had a solid steal %, not getting thrown out too much because he is smart. He could surprise with 10-15 steals.

In the end, there will be two ways to view him. You either think he's a sophomore slump candidate, or you believe in his talent. I think that much like Longoria, he makes strides in his 2nd season (Longo's was better, but his k-rate and walk % where still similar to Will's 1st season). My projections are just a reiteration of Bill James' projection, because I agree with them.

153 games, .277 average, 29 homers, 99 rbi, 11 steals, 75 runs.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 06 December 2012 - 11:10 PM.


#3 Primetime_21

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 08:46 AM

Are you guys at all woried about the wrist? I had him last year and really do think he is legit. I'm just worried that the broken wrist will sap power in his first year back.
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#4 South Jersey Bombers

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:02 PM

i love this guy, looking to keep him for the next few years, 20-25 hr + 85-100 rbi + .270 - .285 BA + 70 - 85 runs is my "safe bet"

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#5 jsp2014

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:45 PM

Are you guys at all woried about the wrist? I had him last year and really do think he is legit. I'm just worried that the broken wrist will sap power in his first year back.


I think wrists are usually ~6 month deals as far as power goes, so he shouldn't suffer too much during the season.

with that said, everyone is different and it's a definite factor.

Edited by jsp2014, 07 December 2012 - 01:47 PM.

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#6 jsp2014

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 01:47 PM

I worry that players with horrible plate discipline get abused in their second go-around. the upside is legitimately what others mentioned, like 30/100/.280. problem is the downside is he winds up back in AAA. like a lot of players I think it depends on the ADP. I have a feeling that he will be hyped pretty heavily heading into the season.
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#7 crazy47larry

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 10:24 AM

I think that RBI total is really out of whack. Same with the HR total. A more realistic baseline is 20/80/80.
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#8 LyondellBasell

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 01:15 PM

This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years.


that's a bit of a hyperbolee ... he strikes me as just an average player ... you say it yourself, inflated babip, high k rate

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#9 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 04:47 PM


This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years.


that's a bit of a hyperbolee ... he strikes me as just an average player ... you say it yourself, inflated babip, high k rate


I also said it is fairly maintainable since he had a line drive rate of 21.5%. Anything over 20% tends to lead to a pretty babip. He's only 24, he is young enough to be able to improve his batters eye. And, he's done very very well in the minors and came to the majors and continued his good hitting. Hard to call a guy who had a pedigree as a good prospect, raked in triple AAA, comes up and puts together a very good season in the majors at 23 years old an "average" player.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 08 December 2012 - 04:48 PM.


#10 FouLLine

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Posted 08 December 2012 - 05:11 PM

I really like Middlebrooks as a long term player.

But in terms of next year I have a feeling he will be over drafted by a large margin. Depending on where is ADP is but honestly the guy K's a lot, slowed down considerably after a hot start, and is coming back off of a broke wrist. All of that entering his sophomore year.

If he's healthy he's probably a .270 - .275 20 HR guy.

Despite all the negative's I just shed on Will one big time positive for Middlebrooks is he is going to jump up that lineup so he's looking at a lot more PA's and RBI opportunities.

#11 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:52 PM

This was the only reason for joy as a Sox fan last year, to know that they may have found a superstar to anchor their squad for numerous years. He had a high line-drive rate but still a .335 babip should come down, not too much though if he can maintain a 21%+ line drive rate. His k % is a big high, so that growth or regression in that will help determine his average as well. His power is legit, this is a perennial 30 homer guy waiting to happen. He will need to walk more in order to score more, because his obp is nothing special. I liken his overall offensive game to Evan Longoria a lot, including his steals. Much like Longoria, Middlebrooks has always had a solid steal %, not getting thrown out too much because he is smart. He could surprise with 10-15 steals.

In the end, there will be two ways to view him. You either think he's a sophomore slump candidate, or you believe in his talent. I think that much like Longoria, he makes strides in his 2nd season (Longo's was better, but his k-rate and walk % where still similar to Will's 1st season). My projections are just a reiteration of Bill James' projection, because I agree with them.

153 games, .277 average, 29 homers, 99 rbi, 11 steals, 75 runs.


Going to edit his numbers since I didn't realize how high his hr/fb % was. I'd probably expect closer to 25 homers and 90 rbi's. Still a great value for where he is going.

#12 Oriole Way

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:59 PM

I really like Middlebrooks as a long term player.

But in terms of next year I have a feeling he will be over drafted by a large margin. Depending on where is ADP is but honestly the guy K's a lot, slowed down considerably after a hot start, and is coming back off of a broke wrist. All of that entering his sophomore year.

If he's healthy he's probably a .270 - .275 20 HR guy.

Despite all the negative's I just shed on Will one big time positive for Middlebrooks is he is going to jump up that lineup so he's looking at a lot more PA's and RBI opportunities.


His ADP was pretty damn low on Yahoo as of this week (around 139 I think?), although I expect it to go up as we get closer to the season.

#13 ChrisFarley

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:40 PM

The wrist is completely healthy, and he's adjusting his approach to lay off the low and away pitches. He said he will still maintain his aggressiveness because he believes his job is to drive in runs. Hitting in the 5/6 spot of the Bosox lineup with Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Papi ahead of him, I'm starting to increase my expectations to 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.

#14 Slatykamora

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:46 PM

The wrist is completely healthy, and he's adjusting his approach to lay off the low and away pitches. He said he will still maintain his aggressiveness because he believes his job is to drive in runs. Hitting in the 5/6 spot of the Bosox lineup with Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Papi ahead of him, I'm starting to increase my expectations to 25-30 homers and 100 RBI.


He does seem to profile as a type of player that could sustain a higher than league average BABIP. That and Fenway is hitter friendly not only for his right-handed power, but Triples/Doubles and even slightly singles... I like his chances even despite the lack of plate discipline he presents.. It might be bumpy this year, as I can see him getting into slumps, and when you get into slumps and don't draw walks. It can get really ugly...

#15 phizzics

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:49 PM

I drafted in a 12 team league today and got him in the 14th round (157 overall). Funny thing is that once you get past the elite/semi-elite tier, there are a lot of options that have possibilities but carry some risk. As long as he doesn't try to do too much i think he'll be fine.

#16 yoda

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 11:27 PM

AVG might not be pretty but has 30 HR pop. 3B is light this year.
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#17 cs3

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:40 AM

AVG might not be pretty but has 30 HR pop. 3B is light this year.

This is the deepest 3B has been in years.
MCab
Longoria
Beltre
Wright
Hanley
Zimmerman
Lawrie
Sandoval
ARamirez
Headley
Moose
Freese
Prado
Machado
Middlebroks
I mean 10 or 11 of the top 100 players are 3B

#18 wildo7

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:46 AM

only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

#19 cs3

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:54 PM

only 4-5 of those can be counted on for anything. I actually think 3B is the 2nd thinnest position this year.

Well you can say that about any position.
I feel like 2B, 3B, C are all worse off than 3B

#20 jb_power

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 03:17 PM

Personally I think 3B and C are the 2 deepest positions this year with 2B and SS the thinnest.