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Yadier Molina 2013 OutlookFluke or Legit?


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#1 ChrisFarley

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Posted 06 December 2012 - 08:43 PM

Do you think Yadier Molina can replicate his success from 2013, or was he a fluke?  I was very surprised with the speed and power outburst.  He will be 30/31 years old in 2013, so based on all the work he's done behind the plate, can a physical breakdown or decline occur ala Russell Martin?

Edited by ChrisFarley, 06 December 2012 - 08:44 PM.


#2 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 07 December 2012 - 12:43 PM

I think Martin's drop-off is what it is, and he is an entirely different player now (well- not entirely- but his skills have diminished and he isn't the same type of player he was for those 2 or 3 real good years with the Dodgers).

13 of Martin's career-high 21 home runs came at home last season. He does not possess the speed he once did and his walk rate has declined (save for one season) and his strikeout rate has gone up all over the past 4 years. Even with his career high of 21 home runs on the surface last year (with the help of Yankees stadium no less), Martin was not very good. He's still great at framing pitches, but that doesn't really apply to fantasy baseball at all.

In Pittsburgh, if he doesn't manage to hit at least 15-20 home runs, the only upgrade I can see for that team is his ability to frame pitches so well (in contrast to how awful their catchers have been at doing so over the past few seasons).

He may only be 29, but when you look at him, he is a different player now. The decline over the past 4 seasons- HR influx w/ the help of playing in New York for 2 seasons or not- it's for real. The best of Martin is over in my opinion.

--
With Molina, though? He's trending upwards (even if he's a year or two older than Martin). He's also easily the best defensive catcher in baseball and has been for quite awhile (which is stating the obvious here).
He had a career highs all over the place, and obviously it was a career year. But if you look closely at his 2011, he had similar numbers in a lot of areas. 139 games played (vs. 138 in 2012), 14 HR (vs. 22 in 2012), 65 RBI (vs. 76 in 2012), .814 OPS (vs a .874 mark in 2012), .305 BAVG (vs. a .315 mark in 2012),..... you get what I'm going for.

Molina has been reliable and you know what you're getting for years now. The past two seasons have seen his power numbers increase a bit. But even in 2010 when he only had 6 HR on the year, he still finished with over 60 RBI if I'm not mistaking.

Molina is the team's franchise player now, and I don't expect him to drop-off dramatically in 2013. He's definitely a leader and works as hard as anyone in baseball. The speed increase from last year isn't really a big thing to me.... hell, even Martin himself had 8 steals. And worth noting is 2012 was the best year for stolen bases (% wise) since 2007. Both years were at or right around 75%. Molina is a smart player and great athlete, and taking advantage of some of the catchers in the NL Central isn't hard to do really. I could see 15 SB next year, really.... but I don't think he will be given the chance to run that often so I wouldn't peg him for that.

If I was guessing on Molina, I'd predict something like... a HR total somewhere around 15-20, RBI total around 70-80, with his average right around .300 as it usually is. 10 SB isn't out of the question, maybe a couple more. He should be very reliable. I would rank him among the top-5 fantasy catchers with all things considered. Maybe top-3.
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#3 mjb03003

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:00 AM

Molina, at his current ADP (mid-80s, or early to mid 8th round) is a solid pick. Over the past 5 seasons, he's only hit under .293 once (in 2010) and had an OPS under .740 once (also in 2010). If you throw out 2010, which is the true outlier of the last 5 seasons for Yadi, he's been a .304 hitter with a ~.780 OPS since 2008. Outside of Posey and Mauer, Molina is the only backstop who can reasonably be expected to hit .300+. He hit 14 homers in 2011 and 22 in 2012, and the underlying numbers don't make either of those seasons look terribly fluky. He did have a 13.8% HR/FB ratio last year, compared to 9.1% in 2011, so I think we can expect some regression in his total HRs, but I think he'll still wind up in the 15-20 range, and if a few of his homers turn into doubles, it won't crush his fantasy value. Catchers who hit for average AND give you 15-20 HRs are rare. Molina will basically give you 80-90% of Mauer's production in R/RBI with similar SB totals and slightly more homers (remember, Mauer has only hit more than 13 homers once, in that magical 2010 season when he hit 28. Molina has averaged 18 homers the last two seasons). Mauer is currently being drafted in the high 40s, or in the late 4th/early 5th round of 12 team leagues.

There are plenty of catchers who offer greater power potential, but they come with significant batting average risk, or they are unproven commodities. Molina is a rock solid player who won't hurt you anywhere and has been trending up as a hitter for several seasons now. There will certainly end up being better value picks at the Catcher position, but there isn't likely to be a safer pick relative to his ADP.
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#4 PRoSPx

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 12:11 AM

I don't think he's going to offer that great of a value this year.

#5 mjb03003

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Posted 14 February 2013 - 11:06 AM

Not exactly my favorite fantasy analyst (far from it) but Eric Karabell thinks pretty highly of Yadier this season:

58. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: The power is real. I'm not saying he'll hit 30 home runs this season, but this is your No. 2-ranked catcher, and he's a better value per draft position than the No. 1.
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DL1 - Cameron Wake, DB2 - Carlos Dunlap, DL3 - Jerry Hughes
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D Flex - Ryan Shazier
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#6 Cmilne23

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 10:27 AM

I love owning this guy.  He plays everyday.  Even day after night games.  He is a warrior.  After owning Brian McCann, its a nice change having a catcher who is a gamer.

Edited by The Harsh, 10 April 2013 - 05:11 PM.
Profanity.


#7 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 23 May 2013 - 11:45 AM

It's been a real treat owning him in both of my leagues. Of course the batting average is pretty empty right now, but he's just solid, dependable players, in fantasy and real life.

Liking the SB attempts too...

#8 freevick

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Posted 28 May 2013 - 12:01 PM

No love for Molina?  Dude killed it yesterday in the 2 hole.

2-2 with 2 runs, 4rbis, 1hr, 2walks

#9 mjb03003

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Posted 28 May 2013 - 12:26 PM

View Postfreevick, on 28 May 2013 - 12:01 PM, said:

No love for Molina?  Dude killed it yesterday in the 2 hole.

2-2 with 2 runs, 4rbis, 1hr, 2walks

I've got plenty of love for him. He's ranked right below Posey and ahead of Mauer in my league, which shows you that even with his ADP rising a ton after last year's 22 HR, 12 SB season, he was still a good value for where he was going.
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DL1 - Cameron Wake, DB2 - Carlos Dunlap, DL3 - Jerry Hughes
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#10 mcbane

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:15 PM

Wowzers. Yadier just got tossed for slamming his helmet into the ground after Brandon Crawford made a great play at SS and threw him out, and Yadier goes full on Milton Bradley on the ump, and for good reason, tossing Molina was a terrible terrible decision. It was clear Molina was upset with himself for not beating out the throw, but that ump is lucky some people were holding him back. Matheny gets tossed too, and Yadier might get suspended for going ape****.

But just another example of how horrible the umps are. My goodness.

Edited by mcbane, 02 June 2013 - 02:16 PM.

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C Devin Mesoraco / 1B Anthony Rizzo / 2B Dustin Ackley / 3B Anthony Rendon / SS Mookie Betts
IF Jose Bautista / LF Corey Dickerson / CF Yasiel Puig / RF Justin Upton / Util Jorge Soler


BN  Kolten Wong / Lonnie Chisenhall / Yangervis Solarte / Brandon Moss
DL Manny Machado /  Yadier Molina NA Carlos Correa  


SP Julio Teheran / Jake Arrieta / Gerrit Cole / Chris Tillman / Brandon McCarthy / Nathan Eovaldi
RP Craig Kimbrel / Joaquin Benoit / Ken Giles  

#11 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:21 PM

He never really touched the ump, so I doubt he's suspended...
But a total BS ejection.

He slammed the helmet out of frustration, unless he said something.
But he didn't even look at the ump, just threw the helmet and not toward the ump or anything.

#Umpshow

Edited by The Harsh, 02 June 2013 - 02:23 PM.
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#12 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:23 PM

Why not kick people out for screaming in frustration or breaking a bat, etc

#13 profart

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:24 PM

Absolute joke of a call.

#14 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:28 PM

If he looked at the ump and said "f--- you, f--- that" or something, and then slammed it, I get it.

But they've showed it a bunch and it doesn't look like he said anything or looked toward the ump at all.

#15 mcbane

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:28 PM

View PostGumbo_Ghost, on 02 June 2013 - 02:21 PM, said:

He never really touched the ump, so I doubt he's suspended...
But a total BS ejection.

He slammed the helmet out of frustration, unless he said something.
But he didn't even look at the ump, just threw the helmet and not toward the ump or anything.

#Umpshow

Who knows nowadays. The ump should be suspended for taking out one of the Cardinals best players for no reason. Look at the context of the play. Crawford robbed him of an RBI hit, that Molina should have beat out, in a 2-0 game. No reason to be upset there. I also wonder if the ump said something to Molina, or if Molina was just stunned, because there's a delay before Molina goes postal. What a joke. I could see MLB suspending Molina for his aggression to "protect" the umpires.
12 Teams - Dynasty - No Minors
R/H/2B/3B/HR/RBI/SB/AVG/OBP/SLG         W/L/CG/SHO/SV/HR/BB/K/ERA/WHIP/QS


C Devin Mesoraco / 1B Anthony Rizzo / 2B Dustin Ackley / 3B Anthony Rendon / SS Mookie Betts
IF Jose Bautista / LF Corey Dickerson / CF Yasiel Puig / RF Justin Upton / Util Jorge Soler


BN  Kolten Wong / Lonnie Chisenhall / Yangervis Solarte / Brandon Moss
DL Manny Machado /  Yadier Molina NA Carlos Correa  


SP Julio Teheran / Jake Arrieta / Gerrit Cole / Chris Tillman / Brandon McCarthy / Nathan Eovaldi
RP Craig Kimbrel / Joaquin Benoit / Ken Giles  

#16 strahanfan92

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 02:29 PM

God damn he is so slow/doesn't hustle down the line, my favorite player though.

#17 bpetty13

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Posted 04 June 2013 - 05:26 PM

Any update on his appeal?  I've read that he could possibly drop his appeal and just sit the 1 game.  Trying to figure out when that might be.
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#18 DK64MASTER

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 03:58 PM

He's out of the lineup today.  Could he be serving his suspension today?

#19 crotchcrickets

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 03:59 PM

Yes he is.

#20 Gumbo_Ghost

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Posted 05 June 2013 - 04:09 PM

Makes sense, extra innings last night, and not going to miss the Reds series, which is more important.