486 replies to this topic

[Suikoden]

So he's starting baseball activities up again soon...even though he was doing so in July-Sept...LOL

What round does this piece of glass go?  I'm never drafting him again unless he drops to 4th round.  Who actually thinks he is 100% for Spring?

[Nick Mitchell]

It's hilarious. He was my 1st pick (auction draft, but I believe I slotted in around 7th) in a 14-team mixed league with a 200$ budget and 25-man rosters w/ two DL spots. He burned one of those spots until the final month of the year, but being in first from June to the end of the season it mattered not (thank god, or I'd hate Tulo more than I already do) 2nd most expensive player, at around 44$ I believe- maybe 45$ to boot. I thought he would ruin my season.

Nonetheless, thanks to cheap bids on other very important players (Sale- 9$; Alfonso Soriano- 2$; Clippard- 4$; etc...), two aces for $30 a piece (Hamels and Weaver), one other stud besides Tulo at 40$ (Cano),  and a once-in-a-lifetime bargain ($5 for Trout, middle of the draft, but the value is what counts)... not to mention free pickups on post-draft drops at the beginning of the year in Kyle Lohse (free), Adam LaRoche (3$ on waivers), Daniel Murphy (1$)... I could go on and on forever. I dominated last year and that was with Tulo missing the entire season and being my first pick.

Needless to say, I will not touch him anywhere before the 6th round. What I WILL do possible is nominate him in auction drafts very early, and see who is ballsy (or who isn't) and who just is uninformed (there's always ONE person in a league who will drop more on someone not knowing some finer details...), so to be honest?

I'm kind of planning to use Tulo as a way to get someone to overspend. Kind of like people will with Tommy Hansen because he's a sexy name on a sexy team and he was an off-season move. It will also show people's cards in the draft early... the way I figure. I play with a lot of the same core but there's always some turnover.

Sorry- I know that was all sort of off-topic, but on the subject of strategy, in auction drafts I think that nominating Tulowitzki EARLY is very smart; it will catch people off-guard and maybe a 20-30$ bid (which is reasonable given his massive upside when healthy- 25$ would be OK for me if my team was filled out in other areas and he was available for me at that price at the right time- i.e. after the 6th round, if I *were* looking to acquire him) could net him. Which could be a huge bargain, or it could be a huge waste.

i don't trust him at all, but if I could get him for $25 or below in either scenario (an early nomination for Auction-format drafts, or a 6th-round or later type of pick- maybe even 7th or 8th for me. But hey, that's just because he almost COMPLETELY burned me. Trout doesn't do what he did, and I don't pick up Pouffe during his surge (which was right as Tulo went down, so I just slotted Plouffe in...), and I lose my league. Straight-up Tulo is a bitter taste.

But his value to me? 6th-7th round and 20-30$ in an auction. Maybe that's low. I'd love to see what others have him pegged for....

[Cmilne23]

He is a free agent in my auction keeper league.  I am protecting him so I can match any salary he gets.  I do not know how high I want to go.  Last season was just an unmitigated disaster.  The guy I felt escaped a season ending injury like 4 times.  He got drilled in the elbow by Ubaldo on like the last spring training game.  Then he hurt his groin on opening day and looked hobbled for awhile, then he was just sitting in the dugout and got drilled by a ball.  Just a drama filled season left and right for this guy.  I do not like drama with my players, but if you like drama this is your guy.  I would not take him in the 1st round though.  He is probably the most injury prone player in the league IMO.

[Suikoden]

This guy is DMC of football

[parrothead]

 Nick Mitchell, on 08 December 2012 - 08:17 PM, said:

It's hilarious. He was my 1st pick (auction draft, but I believe I slotted in around 7th) in a 14-team mixed league with a 200$ budget and 25-man rosters w/ two DL spots. He burned one of those spots until the final month of the year, but being in first from June to the end of the season it mattered not (thank god, or I'd hate Tulo more than I already do) 2nd most expensive player, at around 44$ I believe- maybe 45$ to boot. I thought he would ruin my season.

Nonetheless, thanks to cheap bids on other very important players (Sale- 9$; Alfonso Soriano- 2$; Clippard- 4$; etc...), two aces for $30 a piece (Hamels and Weaver), one other stud besides Tulo at 40$ (Cano),  and a once-in-a-lifetime bargain ($5 for Trout, middle of the draft, but the value is what counts)... not to mention free pickups on post-draft drops at the beginning of the year in Kyle Lohse (free), Adam LaRoche (3$ on waivers), Daniel Murphy (1$)... I could go on and on forever. I dominated last year and that was with Tulo missing the entire season and being my first pick.

Needless to say, I will not touch him anywhere before the 6th round. What I WILL do possible is nominate him in auction drafts very early, and see who is ballsy (or who isn't) and who just is uninformed (there's always ONE person in a league who will drop more on someone not knowing some finer details...), so to be honest?

I'm kind of planning to use Tulo as a way to get someone to overspend. Kind of like people will with Tommy Hansen because he's a sexy name on a sexy team and he was an off-season move. It will also show people's cards in the draft early... the way I figure. I play with a lot of the same core but there's always some turnover.

Sorry- I know that was all sort of off-topic, but on the subject of strategy, in auction drafts I think that nominating Tulowitzki EARLY is very smart; it will catch people off-guard and maybe a 20-30$ bid (which is reasonable given his massive upside when healthy- 25$ would be OK for me if my team was filled out in other areas and he was available for me at that price at the right time- i.e. after the 6th round, if I *were* looking to acquire him) could net him. Which could be a huge bargain, or it could be a huge waste.

i don't trust him at all, but if I could get him for $25 or below in either scenario (an early nomination for Auction-format drafts, or a 6th-round or later type of pick- maybe even 7th or 8th for me. But hey, that's just because he almost COMPLETELY burned me. Trout doesn't do what he did, and I don't pick up Pouffe during his surge (which was right as Tulo went down, so I just slotted Plouffe in...), and I lose my league. Straight-up Tulo is a bitter taste.

But his value to me? 6th-7th round and 20-30$ in an auction. Maybe that's low. I'd love to see what others have him pegged for....

So a couple of thoughts:

1. You are absolutely right in an auction to target him early, if he is say your Plan A at SS with value and you take the normal approach of an auction which is to call who you dont want, let people spend their $$, you might end up in a situation where his market ends up more than you want because 2-3 others have the same idea and while you waited on him, your plan BC and D were called and now gone.

2. Price?  This is always tough, just takes one stubborn believer or two to really inflate the price.  Usually in baseball, there are enough roster spots that coming off injuries or having the perception of being frequently injured (which he is) will hurt value say more than it would in football, where a guy like DMC was still a top 5-6 pick despite being injured 3 of 4 seasons.  Our cap is $130 and he has been a keeper the last few years at $19, my guess is that he probably will end up in the $15-20 range, which is down $10-18 off where he could of gone in prime years a few years back.

Ive got a good scenario going into auction where I have SS and 2B well covered, I just need to fill my MI spot.  I like the idea of taking the chance on Tulo if the price is right, I dont think it will be as for me I would like to see him in the 12-14 range.

The other thing is knowing your league, seems a lot of leagues and ours is no different has an owner or two who knows Tulo was hurt but maybe doesnt know the complete trend line and he will buy the "names" and often overpay for name guys.  He usually leads the league in guys who played in the 1990's.  An owner like this in your league can hurt as you approach stars who should come as a value pick.

[WahooManiac]

"leads the lg in players from the 1990's" - I laughed my ace off at this haha. One year this guy will stay healthy, im thinking his adp will be great this yr for a high upside gamble

[RotoRaysfan]

 Suikoden, on 09 December 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

This guy is DMC of football

Well, as a DMC owner, I will say this - DMC never has had MVP seasons or Tulo's level of production.  I wish I could look back on seasons that DMC was the fantasy MVP, at least it would lessen the pain, but I digress....

Back to Tulo.  The plus side is half the games at Coors, his position scarcity, and the known skill set, and he's only 28.

The downside is his injury history, plain and simple.

I think anyone would take him in the 4th round, or 5th-6th - but SS is so weak, let's face it, he isn't going to drop that far in most drafts.   I recall 2 years ago when Reyes was projected to go in the end of the 2nd/early 3rd after his disastrous 2009 & subpar 2010 season - only to have some suggest he would still be a back-end 1st round pick (a rather famous convo ensued).  The point being - when you've been an elite player at a scarce position, and your ceiling is still elite, in most leagues, someone else will eventually gamble on you well before the no-brainer value stage.

Would I spend a 1st round pick on him if the groin issue is still a question?  Nope.   2nd?   Unlikely, unless I had the 1st overall or 2nd overall pick (and could predict my 3rd round pick and see what choices were coming my way).  

I bet his ADP is going to be at mid-20's range, barring an epic ST in which he launches about 10 bombs - then watch him pull a Braun 2012 in ADP (Braun was for different reasons, but the ADP issues with him are a pretty good comp - people are afraid they'll only get Tulo for half a season, or miss the playoffs with another injury, while Braun was known to miss 50 games with the announced suspension - and the fall in ADP is a pretty good comp, I'm thinking - as long as Tulo's health reports aren't glowing AND he shows he's fine in ST).   If he does show he's healthy in ST - he cracks the top 10 again.

Nice part is until ST starts, unless you have an insanely early draft, the picture will clear up for sure.

[malta69]

Tulo would KILL to have McFadden's pain tolerance!

With all due respect RRF, you'd be better off donating your league fees to your favorite charity then wasting a "mid -20 range ADP" on her.

[parrothead]

 RotoRaysfan, on 12 December 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:

 Suikoden, on 09 December 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

This guy is DMC of football

Well, as a DMC owner, I will say this - DMC never has had MVP seasons or Tulo's level of production.  I wish I could look back on seasons that DMC was the fantasy MVP, at least it would lessen the pain, but I digress....

Back to Tulo.  The plus side is half the games at Coors, his position scarcity, and the known skill set, and he's only 28.

The downside is his injury history, plain and simple.

I think anyone would take him in the 4th round, or 5th-6th - but SS is so weak, let's face it, he isn't going to drop that far in most drafts.   I recall 2 years ago when Reyes was projected to go in the end of the 2nd/early 3rd after his disastrous 2009 & subpar 2010 season - only to have some suggest he would still be a back-end 1st round pick (a rather famous convo ensued).  The point being - when you've been an elite player at a scarce position, and your ceiling is still elite, in most leagues, someone else will eventually gamble on you well before the no-brainer value stage.

Would I spend a 1st round pick on him if the groin issue is still a question?  Nope.   2nd?   Unlikely, unless I had the 1st overall or 2nd overall pick (and could predict my 3rd round pick and see what choices were coming my way).  

I bet his ADP is going to be at mid-20's range, barring an epic ST in which he launches about 10 bombs - then watch him pull a Braun 2012 in ADP (Braun was for different reasons, but the ADP issues with him are a pretty good comp - people are afraid they'll only get Tulo for half a season, or miss the playoffs with another injury, while Braun was known to miss 50 games with the announced suspension - and the fall in ADP is a pretty good comp, I'm thinking - as long as Tulo's health reports aren't glowing AND he shows he's fine in ST).   If he does show he's healthy in ST - he cracks the top 10 again.

Nice part is until ST starts, unless you have an insanely early draft, the picture will clear up for sure.

I agree, its the positon, the risk though is that if he does get hurt you are trying to replace him from whats leftover at that same thin position.  I believe like you do, that someone in most leagues will take him early and someone will pay close to market value in auction.

[malta69]

 parrothead, on 12 December 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

 RotoRaysfan, on 12 December 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:

 Suikoden, on 09 December 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

This guy is DMC of football

Well, as a DMC owner, I will say this - DMC never has had MVP seasons or Tulo's level of production.  I wish I could look back on seasons that DMC was the fantasy MVP, at least it would lessen the pain, but I digress....

Back to Tulo.  The plus side is half the games at Coors, his position scarcity, and the known skill set, and he's only 28.

The downside is his injury history, plain and simple.

I think anyone would take him in the 4th round, or 5th-6th - but SS is so weak, let's face it, he isn't going to drop that far in most drafts.   I recall 2 years ago when Reyes was projected to go in the end of the 2nd/early 3rd after his disastrous 2009 & subpar 2010 season - only to have some suggest he would still be a back-end 1st round pick (a rather famous convo ensued).  The point being - when you've been an elite player at a scarce position, and your ceiling is still elite, in most leagues, someone else will eventually gamble on you well before the no-brainer value stage.

Would I spend a 1st round pick on him if the groin issue is still a question?  Nope.   2nd?   Unlikely, unless I had the 1st overall or 2nd overall pick (and could predict my 3rd round pick and see what choices were coming my way).  

I bet his ADP is going to be at mid-20's range, barring an epic ST in which he launches about 10 bombs - then watch him pull a Braun 2012 in ADP (Braun was for different reasons, but the ADP issues with him are a pretty good comp - people are afraid they'll only get Tulo for half a season, or miss the playoffs with another injury, while Braun was known to miss 50 games with the announced suspension - and the fall in ADP is a pretty good comp, I'm thinking - as long as Tulo's health reports aren't glowing AND he shows he's fine in ST).   If he does show he's healthy in ST - he cracks the top 10 again.

Nice part is until ST starts, unless you have an insanely early draft, the picture will clear up for sure.

I agree, its the positon, the risk though is that if he does get hurt you are trying to replace him from whats leftover at that same thin position.  I believe like you do, that someone in most leagues will take him early and someone will pay close to market value in auction.

Here is my main issue with the Tulo argument - at this stage of the game, it's not a "risk" persay as much as it's a trend, or to a lesser extent almost a guarantee that he will miss time, and more likely than not, a significant portion of it.  Year after year I hear people talk up the "position scarcity" angle til it's blue in the face, when the bottom line is by taking Tulo with your second or cringe even first pick, you are passing up MUCH safer and more sustained production from a corner infield or outfield position.  And let's  be frank here, while it clearly fluctuates from year to year, shortstop.is the not the black hole it was a few years ago.  By locking up that #1 OF or top flight 1B/3B and adding an Alcedes Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Zach Cosart etc. you are virtually securing your chances for moderate success.  After 6-7 years of data,  taking this guy with such a high pick and "hoping" he doesn't get hurt is the equivalent of taking the last few bucks from your bank account and spending it all on lottery tickets.  

In terms of "value",  where exactly does it begin?   ADP in the early - mid30s?  In all honesty, if he were there I think I'd still pass.  I don't think drafting him becomes a true "value" pick unless he becomes your third, and possibly even fourth player drafted which clearly won't happen.

Edited by malta69, 12 December 2012 - 11:42 AM.

[RotoRaysfan]

 malta69, on 12 December 2012 - 11:41 AM, said:

 parrothead, on 12 December 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

 RotoRaysfan, on 12 December 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:

 Suikoden, on 09 December 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

This guy is DMC of football

Well, as a DMC owner, I will say this - DMC never has had MVP seasons or Tulo's level of production.  I wish I could look back on seasons that DMC was the fantasy MVP, at least it would lessen the pain, but I digress....

Back to Tulo.  The plus side is half the games at Coors, his position scarcity, and the known skill set, and he's only 28.

The downside is his injury history, plain and simple.

I think anyone would take him in the 4th round, or 5th-6th - but SS is so weak, let's face it, he isn't going to drop that far in most drafts.   I recall 2 years ago when Reyes was projected to go in the end of the 2nd/early 3rd after his disastrous 2009 & subpar 2010 season - only to have some suggest he would still be a back-end 1st round pick (a rather famous convo ensued).  The point being - when you've been an elite player at a scarce position, and your ceiling is still elite, in most leagues, someone else will eventually gamble on you well before the no-brainer value stage.

Would I spend a 1st round pick on him if the groin issue is still a question?  Nope.   2nd?   Unlikely, unless I had the 1st overall or 2nd overall pick (and could predict my 3rd round pick and see what choices were coming my way).  

I bet his ADP is going to be at mid-20's range, barring an epic ST in which he launches about 10 bombs - then watch him pull a Braun 2012 in ADP (Braun was for different reasons, but the ADP issues with him are a pretty good comp - people are afraid they'll only get Tulo for half a season, or miss the playoffs with another injury, while Braun was known to miss 50 games with the announced suspension - and the fall in ADP is a pretty good comp, I'm thinking - as long as Tulo's health reports aren't glowing AND he shows he's fine in ST).   If he does show he's healthy in ST - he cracks the top 10 again.

Nice part is until ST starts, unless you have an insanely early draft, the picture will clear up for sure.

I agree, its the positon, the risk though is that if he does get hurt you are trying to replace him from whats leftover at that same thin position.  I believe like you do, that someone in most leagues will take him early and someone will pay close to market value in auction.

Here is my main issue with the Tulo argument - at this stage of the game, it's not a "risk" persay as much as it's a trend, or to a lesser extent almost a guarantee that he will miss time, and more likely than not, a significant portion of it.  Year after year I hear people talk up the "position scarcity" angle til it's blue in the face, when the bottom line is by taking Tulo with your second or cringe even first pick, you are passing up MUCH safer and more sustained production from a corner infield or outfield position.  And let's  be frank here, while it clearly fluctuates from year to year, shortstop.is the not the black hole it was a few years ago.  By locking up that #1 OF or top flight 1B/3B and adding an Alcedes Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Zach Cosart etc. you are virtually securing your chances for moderate success.  After 6-7 years of data,  taking this guy with such a high pick and "hoping" he doesn't get hurt is the equivalent of taking the last few bucks from your bank account and spending it all on lottery tickets.  

In terms of "value",  where exactly does it begin?   ADP in the early - mid30s?  In all honesty, if he were there I think I'd still pass.  I don't think drafting him becomes a true "value" pick unless he becomes your third, and possibly even fourth player drafted which clearly won't happen.

Can't argue the reasoning - but let's say you have the 1st/2nd/3rd overall pick.  It's Round 2 - so you have sandwich picks, or you have a great idea of the next 5-6 players on the Board who will go end Round 2 or early Rd 3.  In that scenario - gambling on Tulo makes sense with the info we have now - as long as you can lock in your 3rd choice, the allure of top 3 overall production makes it a worthy risk IMO.

It could all be moot - if he rakes & runs in ST I suspect he goes to the middle / end if Round 1 (factoring in risk of re-injury will deflate his value from the top 6-7 even if he shows he is healthy).  Great fodder for discussion, though.  

[parrothead]

 RotoRaysfan, on 12 December 2012 - 11:51 AM, said:

 malta69, on 12 December 2012 - 11:41 AM, said:

 parrothead, on 12 December 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

 RotoRaysfan, on 12 December 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:

 Suikoden, on 09 December 2012 - 04:30 PM, said:

This guy is DMC of football

Well, as a DMC owner, I will say this - DMC never has had MVP seasons or Tulo's level of production.  I wish I could look back on seasons that DMC was the fantasy MVP, at least it would lessen the pain, but I digress....

Back to Tulo.  The plus side is half the games at Coors, his position scarcity, and the known skill set, and he's only 28.

The downside is his injury history, plain and simple.

I think anyone would take him in the 4th round, or 5th-6th - but SS is so weak, let's face it, he isn't going to drop that far in most drafts.   I recall 2 years ago when Reyes was projected to go in the end of the 2nd/early 3rd after his disastrous 2009 & subpar 2010 season - only to have some suggest he would still be a back-end 1st round pick (a rather famous convo ensued).  The point being - when you've been an elite player at a scarce position, and your ceiling is still elite, in most leagues, someone else will eventually gamble on you well before the no-brainer value stage.

Would I spend a 1st round pick on him if the groin issue is still a question?  Nope.   2nd?   Unlikely, unless I had the 1st overall or 2nd overall pick (and could predict my 3rd round pick and see what choices were coming my way).  

I bet his ADP is going to be at mid-20's range, barring an epic ST in which he launches about 10 bombs - then watch him pull a Braun 2012 in ADP (Braun was for different reasons, but the ADP issues with him are a pretty good comp - people are afraid they'll only get Tulo for half a season, or miss the playoffs with another injury, while Braun was known to miss 50 games with the announced suspension - and the fall in ADP is a pretty good comp, I'm thinking - as long as Tulo's health reports aren't glowing AND he shows he's fine in ST).   If he does show he's healthy in ST - he cracks the top 10 again.

Nice part is until ST starts, unless you have an insanely early draft, the picture will clear up for sure.

I agree, its the positon, the risk though is that if he does get hurt you are trying to replace him from whats leftover at that same thin position.  I believe like you do, that someone in most leagues will take him early and someone will pay close to market value in auction.

Here is my main issue with the Tulo argument - at this stage of the game, it's not a "risk" persay as much as it's a trend, or to a lesser extent almost a guarantee that he will miss time, and more likely than not, a significant portion of it.  Year after year I hear people talk up the "position scarcity" angle til it's blue in the face, when the bottom line is by taking Tulo with your second or cringe even first pick, you are passing up MUCH safer and more sustained production from a corner infield or outfield position.  And let's  be frank here, while it clearly fluctuates from year to year, shortstop.is the not the black hole it was a few years ago.  By locking up that #1 OF or top flight 1B/3B and adding an Alcedes Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Zach Cosart etc. you are virtually securing your chances for moderate success.  After 6-7 years of data,  taking this guy with such a high pick and "hoping" he doesn't get hurt is the equivalent of taking the last few bucks from your bank account and spending it all on lottery tickets.  

In terms of "value",  where exactly does it begin?   ADP in the early - mid30s?  In all honesty, if he were there I think I'd still pass.  I don't think drafting him becomes a true "value" pick unless he becomes your third, and possibly even fourth player drafted which clearly won't happen.

Can't argue the reasoning - but let's say you have the 1st/2nd/3rd overall pick.  It's Round 2 - so you have sandwich picks, or you have a great idea of the next 5-6 players on the Board who will go end Round 2 or early Rd 3.  In that scenario - gambling on Tulo makes sense with the info we have now - as long as you can lock in your 3rd choice, the allure of top 3 overall production makes it a worthy risk IMO.

It could all be moot - if he rakes & runs in ST I suspect he goes to the middle / end if Round 1 (factoring in risk of re-injury will deflate his value from the top 6-7 even if he shows he is healthy).  Great fodder for discussion, though.  

I think if I were in a snake draft (somewhat traditional size and settings) and Spring he is moving fine, he goes somewhere mid first to mid 2nd and if you arent gonna go that early, you can just write him off, someone will.  I think the interesting thing will be where he goes in auctions.  Hanley Ramirez, who along with Tulo was top 5 fantasy guy for a few years there, had the really bad 2011 and in our auction (130 cap) dropped from a $31 dollar guy in 2011 auction to a $19 guy in 2012 auction.  Tulo has been a $21 keeper the last several years, but contract expired and he is gonna be in the auction, I think it will be interesting to see where he goes.  I have Hanley Im keeping at that price, so I can slide Tulo into the MI spot if he came at right price, and Im not going to let someone get him cheap.  Were still 3+ months from draft night but my early thought is to make him my first call out.  If I get him cheap because there is some reluctance and I agree with Malta, the SS position if you have the right approach has some depth, though it lost two guys who contributed to its value going into last year (Bonafacio and Plouffe), owners might let him go cheaper earlier in an auction.

My thought on my MI spot is to try to get either Tulo or Pedroia on value picks in the sub $15 range.  I woulndt mind them both and slide one to UTIL or Hanley to 3B.

Edited by parrothead, 12 December 2012 - 12:42 PM.

[crazy47larry]

Where does he rank purely as a SS though? I think that will influence his price point more than anything. He is definitely the #1 SS in my eyes. I was all over Hanley in past seasons but I would take the Tulo injury risk over the Hanley headache anyday. Jose Reyes is also a stud but the league switch is not doing him an favors. There is nobody else worth considering next to these 3 in my mind. I like Starlin Castro a lot but he just isn't there yet in my mind. I might target Starlin instead of paying for these guys but no way I would rank him above them.

I think the nature of the position inherets a lot of risk, similar to catcher in that regard. If you looked at the top 10 SS by default rankings I am sure a majority of them got hurt and missed time last year, and I would even say that all of them got hurt in recent seasons. It might be a gross oversimplification but also seems fairly accurate on the surface.

Tulo is the #1 SS without a doubt. He might not be a top 5 pick but I would be eager to select him in RD2 if possible.

Edited by crazy47larry, 12 December 2012 - 03:12 PM.

[parrothead]

 crazy47larry, on 12 December 2012 - 03:11 PM, said:

Where does he rank purely as a SS though? I think that will influence his price point more than anything. He is definitely the #1 SS in my eyes. I was all over Hanley in past seasons but I would take the Tulo injury risk over the Hanley headache anyday. Jose Reyes is also a stud but the league switch is not doing him an favors. There is nobody else worth considering next to these 3 in my mind. I like Starlin Castro a lot but he just isn't there yet in my mind. I might target Starlin instead of paying for these guys but no way I would rank him above them.

I think the nature of the position inherets a lot of risk, similar to catcher in that regard. If you looked at the top 10 SS by default rankings I am sure a majority of them got hurt and missed time last year, and I would even say that all of them got hurt in recent seasons. It might be a gross oversimplification but also seems fairly accurate on the surface.

Tulo is the #1 SS without a doubt. He might not be a top 5 pick but I would be eager to select him in RD2 if possible.

Good question.
I always had bit of mancrush on Hanley, he has been part of 2 of my title teams and the fact he is a 20+ bag guy and I think Tulo will run little with the hammy issues means he is potentially a 5-category contributor, where Tulo is probably a 4.  But for me they are 1-2 and then a pretty good drop to next tier and thats even with all the question marks that surround the two of them.

[FearTheBeard]

I know for a fact I will not be the guy that takes the gamble, as RRF said he will go far earlier than the no brainer gamble point when anyone would take him. A guy with his upside, position scarcity will get snagged quickly by an owner who hasn't had the Tulo headache thinking "this could be the year."

Here's a few reasons that haven't been mentioned why I would stay away from him:

1) His hip...This got kind of swept under the rug due to the groin issue, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tulo got his hip operated on at some point next season. He missed the end of the 2011 season due to hip issues, had more hip issues in spring training and early in the season, he said paraphrasing "It isn't going away, just something I have to play through", and he's still gonna be playing SS next season. Just a hunch but he has to have a partial tear or hip impingement.

2) Rockies are AWFUL!!! Quickly turning into the laughing stock franchise of the league, if Tulo is having any issues/pain/etc he ISN'T GONNA PLAY!!! They aren't going to risk their major investment when their 20 games out. Rockies have already demonstrated they will handle him with baby gloves.

[Armalite]

Got him in a keeper and will be moving him immediately. Hopefully he starts the season like the other glass man of the MLB did last year, Josh Hamilton, so that I can be rid of the headache. He's just one of those players who plays the game at 100%, 100% of the time and just can't stay healthy because of it. He's the Bob Sanders of the MLB. I don't think he's recovered from his previous injuries either. If I was drafting him I'd be incline to take him if he slipped past the 3rd round, but it's not likely he's a flashly name at a flashly position.

[Dodger Blue 88]

Of course I am very scared of his injuries but I just traded for him in my keeper league that has 4 years left before we redraft from scratch. Wanted him and Cano up the middle for my team. Now time to pray he stays healthy.

[bigbluecrew56]

I love this guy when healthy but with all the steady names that will be on the board in round 2 it will be very hard for me to take him in that spot. Now round three I might think about it. Round 4 is no brainer.

[Suikoden]

this is the year of skipping SSs in the first 8 rounds

[Cmilne23]

I still have not forgiven him for being such a disaster last year.  One of the most drama filled seasons I have ever been part of.  Season has been over 2 months and its still at the front of my mind.  Which means I will not have this guy on any team next year.  Will let someone else deal with this wimp, headache.