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Bryce Harper 2013 Outlook30/30 threat?


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#1 baltimore_boy

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Posted 09 December 2012 - 08:02 PM

The sensation is fresh off an NL ROY award. He has great potential and will be hitting in a stacked Nationals lineup. Can he put his potential together and put a solid season? Or will his inconsistency issues from last year carry over and frustrate all of his owners?
Bring back Ray!

#2 Primetime_21

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 10:47 AM

Stacked Nats lineup?
12 team Roto (keep 7) 6x6 (OPS, QS)

C- McCann
1B - Goldschmidt
2B - Hill
3B - Machado
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Puig
OF - Kemp
OF - Jennings
OF - Aoki
UTIL - Mesoraco
BN - Seth Smith, Betts (NA)
DL - Harper
NA - Bryant

SP - Tanaka, Strasbourg, Gray, Ventura, Kluber, G. Richards
RP - Robertson, Doolittle, Frieri, Hawkins

#3 jsp2014

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 12:43 PM

that early ADP someone posted had Harper going like 36th. I don't doubt his potential to live up to that, but I think name > production at this point.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#4 baltimore_boy

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 03:03 PM

View PostPrimetime_21, on 13 December 2012 - 10:47 AM, said:

Stacked Nats lineup?

Span
Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)
Zimmerman
LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)
Werth
Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)
Espinosa
Suzuki/Ramos
Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.
Bring back Ray!

#5 Ben Edelman

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Posted 13 December 2012 - 09:34 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 13 December 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:


Span
Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)
Zimmerman
LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)
Werth
Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)
Espinosa
Suzuki/Ramos
Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Going position-by-position, that's probably average everywhere except SS and 3B.  Werth/Harper/Span is a nice OF, but not meaningfully above average unless Harper really does hit 30+ HR.  Suzuki, Espinosa and Morse probably add up to average at their positions.

What has me really thrilled about the Nats as a DC resident is their insane pitching staff.  Dan Haren at your #4?  Awesome:
Strasburg (CY candidate)
Gio (CY candidate)
Zimmermann (#2 on most teams)
Haren (#2 on most teams)
Detwiler
Bullpen: Clippard, Storen

Above average hitting plus what may be the best pitching staff in baseball (gotta rank them against LA) = a really good team.
FRBRL 1995-present.  12-team 4x4 Roto auction keeper, NL-only.
C: Mesoraco, Bethancourt
1/3: Rojas, Frandsen, Rendon
2/S: Wong, Scutaro, Tejada
O/U: Yelich, Maybin, Quentin, Alcantara, C. Ross, Boujos
SP: Strasburg, Morton, Nelson
RP: Clippard, N. Ramirez, Mejia, Storen, Rondon, Avilan, Dice-K
Min: Bryant, Crawford, Piscotty, K. Parker, T. Jordan, R. Montero, Tabata, M. Gonzales, Ruf
DL: Fujikawa, Kelly, Erlin
Yeah, I'm dumping this year.

#6 FouLLine

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 01:58 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 13 December 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

View PostPrimetime_21, on 13 December 2012 - 10:47 AM, said:

Stacked Nats lineup?

Span
Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)
Zimmerman
LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)
Werth
Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)
Espinosa
Suzuki/Ramos
Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Yeah don't sleep on Zimmerman, LaRoche, and Desmond.  I'm not the biggest Jayson Werth fan either, but he is an above average OF as well.

Hell once Zimmerman got his cortisone shot back near the end of June he was a top 10 hitter from that point forward.

#7 mevins31

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

He is no stranger to exceeding expectations. I expect .285/30/90/25 and about 110 runs scored barring injury. If you think I'm expecting too much I say wait and see just make sure he is on your team if possible
http://diamondhoggers.com - A baseball blog about everything baseball

#8 jsp2014

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 02:08 PM

View Postmevins31, on 17 January 2013 - 01:59 PM, said:

He is no stranger to exceeding expectations. I expect .285/30/90/25 and about 110 runs scored barring injury. If you think I'm expecting too much I say wait and see just make sure he is on your team if possible

yeah you're right. considering his AAA numbers compared to MLB, just seems like he is growing at an unbelievable rate. it is hard to imagine him doing much worse than that projection, and he could be the #1 player. I wasn't on board a couple of weeks ago but I'm starting to follow your line of thought. late-2nd wouldn't be too much of a stretch.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#9 mevins31

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 02:15 PM

Exactly. Obv not 1st round guy yet but if he slips past 2nd round in all formats you have to take a flyer...
http://diamondhoggers.com - A baseball blog about everything baseball

#10 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 03:23 PM

I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB.  Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10).  I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

#11 Primetime_21

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 03:35 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 13 December 2012 - 03:03 PM, said:

View PostPrimetime_21, on 13 December 2012 - 10:47 AM, said:

Stacked Nats lineup?

Span
Harper/Desmond (likely Harper)
Zimmerman
LaRoche/Morse (more than likely only one will be there next year)
Werth
Harper/Desmond (likely Desmond)
Espinosa
Suzuki/Ramos
Pitcher

Are you really going to say that is not a pretty good lineup? Harper will likely hit second and score a lot of runs with solid hitters like Zim, LaRoche, Werth, and Desmond hitting behind him to knock him in.

Fair enough... they have got a pretty solid lineup when you look at it.... just not used to them being good yet.

Edited by Primetime_21, 17 January 2013 - 03:35 PM.

12 team Roto (keep 7) 6x6 (OPS, QS)

C- McCann
1B - Goldschmidt
2B - Hill
3B - Machado
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Puig
OF - Kemp
OF - Jennings
OF - Aoki
UTIL - Mesoraco
BN - Seth Smith, Betts (NA)
DL - Harper
NA - Bryant

SP - Tanaka, Strasbourg, Gray, Ventura, Kluber, G. Richards
RP - Robertson, Doolittle, Frieri, Hawkins

#12 mevins31

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 05:20 PM

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 17 January 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB.  Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10).  I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

Yea I'm in line with this thinking but won't bet against him doing more
http://diamondhoggers.com - A baseball blog about everything baseball

#13 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 05:34 PM

View Postmevins31, on 17 January 2013 - 05:20 PM, said:

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 17 January 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB.  Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10).  I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)

Yea I'm in line with this thinking but won't bet against him doing more

I can see him beating those numbers and I can see him not reaching some of those numbers.  I tend not to go nuts when projecting guys in January.

#14 ballfan4141

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 07:49 AM

he did finish as the number one OF the last 30 days in espn player rater.

#15 Whoopie!

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 10:33 AM

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 17 January 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

I don't see him running as much this year, definitely less than 20 total SB.  Last year when he started getting in the groove in the 2nd half, he only stole 9 bags (in more AB's than the first half where he stole 10).  I see him at a 20-max SB guy, not a 20-floor guy.

.284-27-20 with 180 R/RBI (somewhere between 100/80 if he bats 2nd and 80/100 if he bats middle of the order)


Wha, wha, what? ??   I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

#16 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:39 AM

View PostWhoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 10:33 AM, said:

Wha, wha, what? ??   I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

Explain to me why?  If he bats 2nd most of the year I think he'll beat that 20 number, but if he bats 5th for a portion of the year (which I think he will now with Morse gone) I don't think he gets much more than 20 SB.

He stole 19 last year, and only 9 in the 2nd half where he had the majority of his AB's.

Edited by RespectMyAuthority, 18 January 2013 - 11:39 AM.


#17 Whoopie!

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:47 AM

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 18 January 2013 - 11:39 AM, said:

View PostWhoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 10:33 AM, said:

Wha, wha, what? ??   I'd bet my life on him stealing > 20 bags this year!

Explain to me why?  If he bats 2nd most of the year I think he'll beat that 20 number, but if he bats 5th for a portion of the year (which I think he will now with Morse gone) I don't think he gets much more than 20 SB.

He stole 19 last year, and only 9 in the 2nd half where he had the majority of his AB's.


Well he hit .270 with a .340 obp.  Both those should improve this yr.   I think he'll be steady at the #2 spot in the order.   You have to take advantage of all that speed.  While he has nice power,  i think they want him at the top of the lineup scoring runs, getting on base, getting more ab's etc etc.

I think he steals close to 30 IMO.


I'd project:   .285/ 25 hr's/ 80+ rbi's and 27 sb's

Edited by Whoopie!, 18 January 2013 - 11:48 AM.


#18 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:05 PM

View PostWhoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

You have to take advantage of all that speed.  While he has nice power

You do know that he has probably the highest Power rating of any player over the last decade outside of Giacarlo Stanton? Taking advantage of speed is one thing, but they have to take advantage of his power in a power slot of the lineup soon, and I think with Morse gone that is going to be sooner than later.

Their lineup is way better with Harper 5th/6th and Desmond 2nd...there's no way Werth and/or Zimmerman stay healthy the whole year, and Adam Laroche is bound to regress a good amount -- at some point this year they HAVE to move Harper to the middle of the order.

#19 Whoopie!

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:18 PM

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 18 January 2013 - 12:05 PM, said:

View PostWhoopie!, on 18 January 2013 - 11:47 AM, said:

You have to take advantage of all that speed.  While he has nice power

You do know that he has probably the highest Power rating of any player over the last decade outside of Giacarlo Stanton? Taking advantage of speed is one thing, but they have to take advantage of his power in a power slot of the lineup soon, and I think with Morse gone that is going to be sooner than later.

Their lineup is way better with Harper 5th/6th and Desmond 2nd...there's no way Werth and/or Zimmerman stay healthy the whole year, and Adam Laroche is bound to regress a good amount -- at some point this year they HAVE to move Harper to the middle of the order.


He's still a ways away from Stanton type power.   Heck, he's still growing!   lol

If there is an injury or something, that could change things but 2nd is where he belongs in that lineup currently stated.

And no way would they hit this kid 6th!   I actually think 2nd/3rd with Zimm protecting him is more realistic.

#20 Whoopie!

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:30 PM

I would actually make this the lineup to stretch it out some:

Span
Desmond
Harper
Zimmerman
Laroche/Werth
Werth/Laroche
Espinosa
Ramos
SP

Edited by Whoopie!, 18 January 2013 - 12:31 PM.





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