109 replies to this topic

[Ragnaroker]

Coming off an injury riddled season, can he come close to the power/speed combo he put up in 2011?

I'm really interested to see if he remains with the Red Sox for 2013. It makes a lot of sense for them to move him for elite pitching, and then re-sign Cody Ross, especially now that Victorino is there and could play CF. Either way here is hoping for a 2011 repeat. Anyone know of any trade rumors other than the one the Phillies shot down for Cliff Lee?

[baltimore_boy]

I wouldn't really hold your breath on a trade. A lot of teams have filled CF recently and their aren't many teams out there that would be looking for one. Plus, Bourn is still available, so a team will likely sign him first before trading a solid prospect for Ellsbury.

[Ragnaroker]

baltimore_boy, on 09 December 2012 - 08:25 PM, said:

I wouldn't really hold your breath on a trade. A lot of teams have filled CF recently and their aren't many teams out there that would be looking for one. Plus, Bourn is still available, so a team will likely sign him first before trading a solid prospect for Ellsbury.

Agreed. But it's fun to speculate and a trade does make sense on some levels for the Red Sox.

[Red Sox Nation]

I'd love if he was traded for an elite pitcher. As for fantasy, his 2011 is a Joe Mauer-like abberation. Playing for a big pay day, I would certainly expect him to be locked in this year though. I'd put him down for around .290ave/13hr/58rbi/40sb/95runs. He will probably be overrated in drafts though.

[LyondellBasell]

I'm expecting a big season. The injury was a fluke thing. Got hurt when a guy fell on him. Ellsbury is way too talented not to expect elite performance. I also think his power will spike as the season progresses.

Edited by LyondellBasell, 10 December 2012 - 08:47 PM.

[ballfan4141]

do you guys think he can have good numbers this year. not even asking for 2011. just top 15 OF.

[baltimore_boy]

ballfan4141, on 19 January 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

do you guys think he can have good numbers this year. not even asking for 2011. just top 15 OF.

I think he'll be good this year. The injury wasn't his fault. If he plays all year, he should put up decent numbers.

[CrypTviLL]

Any more projections out there? He's on all three of my teams this year.

[mavsfan23]

somewhere around .300 15hr 37sb 97runs 71rbis

and there's upside for more. a 20-40 year with 100 runs and 80rbi wouldn't shock me

[Cmilne23]

I'm going to make a bold statement.  I bet this guy ends up being higher ranked this year on player rater and other player rating scales than Mike Trout.  I think he is going to be the best value player in the league.  That lineup is reloaded, he is in a contract year, he is 1 year removed from one of the best fantasy seasons of the past 10 years.  I could see him going for .365 OBP, 120 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 40 SB's.  Now stash my comment away of him being ranked better than Trout and lets check it at the end of the season

[jb_power]

very High ceiling ... very low floor ... do you feel lucky.  Personally I think he's going to be Top 10 OF.

[MrMartyBarrett]

I'm targeting Ellsbury everywhere I can this year.  Sure, there's inflated injury risk, but the upside is huge for what you're going to pay for him.  Healthy (for now), good lineup behind him, contract year....

[Cmilne23]

Guys like TuloWIMPski are guys that I place the injury prone tag on.  Ellsbury is more in the unlucky category.  His 2 major injuries were what an outfield collision that shattered his rib cage, and then a guy falling on him sliding into second and seperated his shoulder.  He has never really had hammy strains, quad strains, calf strains etc. that make him miss games.  Outside of the 2 freak injuries he has been pretty much ailment free the rest of his career.

[jb_power]

Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013.  However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old.  His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them.  When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

Edited by jb_power, 17 February 2013 - 01:37 PM.

[Cmilne23]

jb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 01:37 PM, said:

Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013.  However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old.  His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them.  When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

No middle ground, you'll either get an elite star, or a piece of crap that will make you want to quit fantasy baseball at midseason.

[Wombat]

Cmilne23, on 17 February 2013 - 03:05 PM, said:

jb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 01:37 PM, said:

Let me first state that I do like Ellsbury for 2013.  However,

His career year was 2 years ago when he was 27 years old.  His next highest HR total for any year (MLB or MiLB) is 9 and his next highest RBI total is 60.

He may have had 2 "freakish" injuries but he took an extremely long time returning from both of them.  When he breaks, he breaks badly.

When he's good, he's very very good ... but when he's bad he is horrid

No middle ground, you'll either get an elite star, or a piece of crap that will make you want to quit fantasy baseball at midseason.

The good news is this year you can get him in say the 4th round instead of the end of the first where he was going last year.  Having your 4th or 5th round pick totally flop is not as devastating.  

I think I am in on him again this year. Last year the thing that annoyed me was he wasn't really stealing bases when he came back.  It may have been Bobby V who is notorious for not liking the running game though.

[LyondellBasell]

He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

[uspsjeter2]

LyondellBasell, on 18 February 2013 - 07:54 AM, said:

He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

Gonna go off based on what?
His power spike was clearly an outlier, and the Sawks are simply not a very potent lineup this year. He's Michael Bourn with one more year of double-digit homers. I'll take Bourn 20 spots later if I want a veteran speedster.

[Stanford410]

uspsjeter2, on 18 February 2013 - 05:11 PM, said:

LyondellBasell, on 18 February 2013 - 07:54 AM, said:

He's gonna go off this year. You get him in round 4, you got a good chance to win your league. I'll consider "reaching" for him in round 3.

Gonna go off based on what?
His power spike was clearly an outlier, and the Sawks are simply not a very potent lineup this year. He's Michael Bourn with one more year of double-digit homers. I'll take Bourn 20 spots later if I want a veteran speedster.

I agree. He had one season with nice power numbers and RBI's. Sure he is a .300 hitter, but no way this guy will hit more than 15 HR.He's always had weak ISO numbers, however, he should be a sure bet for 35+ SB's if he stays healthy. .305/12 HR/68 RBI/40 SB

[uspsjeter2]

My apologies to LyondellBaseball I think came off a bit harsh. I had been messaging on another thread with someone who was trashing me based on "I think" or "I feel" and I guess I was still in defense mode. It's my opinion that Ellsbury doesn't have more than 12 HR power, that his 32 HR year was truly an outlier. His performance history shows no other years of double digit HR at any professional level. Based on my opinion a guy like Bourn is more valuable at a pick 2 rounds later.
That's just my opinion. Thanks.