Kansas City Royals 2013 OutlookTrade Myers to shore up rotation, good move?
#21
Posted 10 December 2012 - 09:35 PM
I just feel more than their quest for ML starters that the slow career starts from Moose and Hosmer disillusioned their patience for what the farm was producing and made a knee jerk reaction to lack of instant gratification.
C-V-Mart
1B-Rizzo
2B-Pedroia
SS-Escobar
3B-Moustakas
MI-Zorbist
CI-Alonzo
OF-Cespedas
OF-Gordon
OF-Beltran
OF-Cruz
Util-McClouth, Gomez
Bench-Aviles, Kubel, Montero,
DL-Reyes, Hanley
SP-Felix, C.C., Latos, Price, Burnett, Haren, Santana, Garza, Hellickson, Beachy(DL)
RP-Soriano, Bailey, Balfour
#22
Posted 10 December 2012 - 10:34 PM
GreenGold74, on 10 December 2012 - 09:00 PM, said:
Anyway none of us can possibly know what prospects will do at the major league level so its unfair to cast stones on what scouts think players will become. Its likely at the end of the day this will be a devestating trade for the Royals future but if Shields and Davis help add 10 wins and instill some organizational confidence with their younger players not feeling the weight of the world then from the Royals perspective the move won't be as bad as perceived. And if things go absolutely south for KC I can see them simply dealing Shields in July and getting back some decent prospects from a contender as Shields would still have a year left and trade value. All in all the Royals took the most risk witht his deal but only time will tell if was a good or bad one.
#23
Posted 11 December 2012 - 02:52 AM
There is also no reason to believe that Myers is 100% going to be Ryan Braun by 2014. Hosmer, Moustakas, Gordon... They Royals themselves have plenty of examples of top hitting prospects flaming out or just being 'decent'. You think they could've got a 3.75 ERA/200 K SP for Hosmer or Moustakas after the years they put up? And yet, if Myers does what Moose did last year in his rookie season, I don't think too many people will be calling him a bust... He'd just be another fine prospect taking his time acclimating to MLB. Myers trade value was very high right now. Sure, Ryan Braun-like value would be even higher, but how about if he turns into Moose-like value? Would be a big missed opportunity... and Moose-like value is far more likely from a percentage POV then Braun-like value.
Oakland turned down Myers for Anderson. Nobody else was dealing starting pitching. How can you make a bad deal when you deal from strength to fill a weakness, make your team better and trade with the only team offering any options? Its not an IDEAL trade, sure. But nobody offered KC an ideal deal, and nobody would've later this year either. Alot of fantasy baseball players wait around for the IDEAL trade too, never make one and finish in 3rd with their good-but-too-bad-I-didn't-fill-any-holes team. Sure, making a ballsy trade looks dumb when you finish 7th instead of 3rd. And maybe that happens half the time, or two thirds of the time, etc. But when it works it works, and banners fly forever.
I'm not even a big Royals fan, but it took alot of guts for Moore to make this trade knowing that its risky and that everyone would call him dumb from day 1. He only gets vindicated if the risk pays off, but at their juncture the risk was by far their best move, regardless if it works or not.
9 Keepers*
C Mauer*
1B Goldschmidt*
2B Utley*
3B Moustakas*
SS
OF Trout*, Trumbo*
Util
Bench Billy Hamilton*
SP
RP Kimbrel*, Jansen*
Prospects - Dylan Bundy, Carlos Martinez, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Thornburg, Kolton Wong, Anthony Gose
#24
Posted 11 December 2012 - 08:55 AM
Its a tough spot for KC to be in, as others have cited they arent a destination franchise, they are never going to attract FA, unless they start winning and even then its unlikely (see Tigers, Detroit). Therefore, when they have a need for pitching and think they are close they are going to get burned, especially by a team like Tampa which had the leverage like crazy. Hopefully the pitching gets them where they want to go and they can contend for the AL central, it would be nice to see one of these lower revenue teams make a move (instead of sitting on their thumbs like so many) and have it break the right way.
#25
Posted 11 December 2012 - 01:36 PM
#26
Posted 11 December 2012 - 03:07 PM
RNiner, on 11 December 2012 - 02:52 AM, said:
Well, if there are no options (at least good ones) than why go for a bad one. Even if Myers isn't half of what he's projected to be, the Royals acquired a 31-year old pitcher for just two years guaranteed. This is the kind of move the Tigers should be doing, or other teams needing to put themselves over the top.
Saw this in an ESPN article, a list of the last 20 MiLB Player of the Year winners:
1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout
We all know Baldelli's issue and at least Young is a starting player. Scary list.
#27
Posted 11 December 2012 - 04:23 PM
Baltimore last year and countless other teams have proven that the odds can break your way. Getting to the playoffs would be a huge coup for KC. Could even change the way FA's, agents, other teams, their own players, etc. view the franchise. Even just a push for the playoffs could do the same. Sadly, I'm not really liking their chances of being a 3-4 year powerhouse anymore with their 'core'. Not enough pitching emerged from their prospect pool, and their young hitters are taking too long to develop. But for the sake of the franchise, they need to go for it at some point. 2014 really won't be a better window then 2013. And waiting that long might just kill any momentum they've built up with fans, their younger players, agents and FA's wondering if they're worth a damn, etc. So from that standpoint, I think this is a very good trade for them. Its not signing Gil frickin Meche, or adding 3-4 mediocre level vets like 2011, its adding a legit top 30 SP (that makes him an 'ace' guys, even if its a bottom-tier ace) and another arm that is still highly thought of and is MLB ready.
Long term, KC is going to have to work on their farm system not developing pitching. Sometimes you can chalk it up to the kid failing, or bad luck health-wise, but I think KC needs to start looking at the coaching/development program/whatever, because they haven't had a legit emergance since Greinke ages ago, and they certainly have had alot of potential Greinke's come through their system lately.
9 Keepers*
C Mauer*
1B Goldschmidt*
2B Utley*
3B Moustakas*
SS
OF Trout*, Trumbo*
Util
Bench Billy Hamilton*
SP
RP Kimbrel*, Jansen*
Prospects - Dylan Bundy, Carlos Martinez, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Thornburg, Kolton Wong, Anthony Gose
#28
Posted 11 December 2012 - 05:03 PM
RNiner, on 11 December 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:
Baltimore last year and countless other teams have proven that the odds can break your way. Getting to the playoffs would be a huge coup for KC. Could even change the way FA's, agents, other teams, their own players, etc. view the franchise. Even just a push for the playoffs could do the same. Sadly, I'm not really liking their chances of being a 3-4 year powerhouse anymore with their 'core'. Not enough pitching emerged from their prospect pool, and their young hitters are taking too long to develop. But for the sake of the franchise, they need to go for it at some point. 2014 really won't be a better window then 2013. And waiting that long might just kill any momentum they've built up with fans, their younger players, agents and FA's wondering if they're worth a damn, etc. So from that standpoint, I think this is a very good trade for them. Its not signing Gil frickin Meche, or adding 3-4 mediocre level vets like 2011, its adding a legit top 30 SP (that makes him an 'ace' guys, even if its a bottom-tier ace) and another arm that is still highly thought of and is MLB ready.
Long term, KC is going to have to work on their farm system not developing pitching. Sometimes you can chalk it up to the kid failing, or bad luck health-wise, but I think KC needs to start looking at the coaching/development program/whatever, because they haven't had a legit emergance since Greinke ages ago, and they certainly have had alot of potential Greinke's come through their system lately.
I think everyone agrees with the fact that KC can't attract FA's without huge overpays. And yes, pitching is the hardest commodity to find.
The issue comes down to this - if Shields & Davis net the Royals 6 more wins (which would be a very optimistic if not absurdly high #), but they keep playing Frenchy, then they look like a .500 to 83-85 win club. And they miss the playoffs. And that's only if Davis breaks through and Francieur doesn't decline further (because again the Royals can't spend tons of $ & can't find great FA upgrades - which put them in this bind in the first place).
So if Dayton Moore can leverage this with other upgrades to really sniff the AL Central crown - then the Doyle Alexander-for -John Smoltz comp works. If they pull a Marlins 2011 then Moore likely never gets a head GM gig again (although the guy can develop a farm system so head of scouting would be a lifetime gig somewhere). It's just as things stand now, most don't see KC as having enough to compete. If you are in June and 2 games out, the Alexander-Smoltz deal is rational - but still a huge gamble. It just has greater odds of panning out short-term. The fundamental negative reaction is based more on the perceived gain the Royals obtained short-term as insufficient to make them contenders - which then leads to the uproar.
As Dave Cameron even said - he's not convinced Myers will be an elite player - but he doesn't have to be elite to make this a bad deal. It's that the perceived gain wasn't worth the cost - and that's before Odorizzi is involved.
If KC contends the next 2 years - they prove the doubters wrong. But if they just go the middle of the pack - the potential for disaster-level outcome is huge (TOR dumping V-dub on ANA for Napoli recent example, AA re-gifted Napoli to lessen the optics but wow).
AL-only 5x5, Roto - 2010 & 2011 league champion
RotoWood 2011 League Runner-Up - Mixed Roto regular season / H2H playoff 5x5 format - 3rd place reg. season, lost in finals
Been a blast everyone - take care, and remember to abide by the CoC, and to help your fellow community out - it's what's made the Forum community great!
P.S. My passion is primarily FBB - you'd LOL at my football track record!
#29
Posted 11 December 2012 - 06:38 PM
RotoRaysfan, on 11 December 2012 - 05:03 PM, said:
RNiner, on 11 December 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:
Baltimore last year and countless other teams have proven that the odds can break your way. Getting to the playoffs would be a huge coup for KC. Could even change the way FA's, agents, other teams, their own players, etc. view the franchise. Even just a push for the playoffs could do the same. Sadly, I'm not really liking their chances of being a 3-4 year powerhouse anymore with their 'core'. Not enough pitching emerged from their prospect pool, and their young hitters are taking too long to develop. But for the sake of the franchise, they need to go for it at some point. 2014 really won't be a better window then 2013. And waiting that long might just kill any momentum they've built up with fans, their younger players, agents and FA's wondering if they're worth a damn, etc. So from that standpoint, I think this is a very good trade for them. Its not signing Gil frickin Meche, or adding 3-4 mediocre level vets like 2011, its adding a legit top 30 SP (that makes him an 'ace' guys, even if its a bottom-tier ace) and another arm that is still highly thought of and is MLB ready.
Long term, KC is going to have to work on their farm system not developing pitching. Sometimes you can chalk it up to the kid failing, or bad luck health-wise, but I think KC needs to start looking at the coaching/development program/whatever, because they haven't had a legit emergance since Greinke ages ago, and they certainly have had alot of potential Greinke's come through their system lately.
I think everyone agrees with the fact that KC can't attract FA's without huge overpays. And yes, pitching is the hardest commodity to find.
The issue comes down to this - if Shields & Davis net the Royals 6 more wins (which would be a very optimistic if not absurdly high #), but they keep playing Frenchy, then they look like a .500 to 83-85 win club. And they miss the playoffs. And that's only if Davis breaks through and Francieur doesn't decline further (because again the Royals can't spend tons of $ & can't find great FA upgrades - which put them in this bind in the first place).
So if Dayton Moore can leverage this with other upgrades to really sniff the AL Central crown - then the Doyle Alexander-for -John Smoltz comp works. If they pull a Marlins 2011 then Moore likely never gets a head GM gig again (although the guy can develop a farm system so head of scouting would be a lifetime gig somewhere). It's just as things stand now, most don't see KC as having enough to compete. If you are in June and 2 games out, the Alexander-Smoltz deal is rational - but still a huge gamble. It just has greater odds of panning out short-term. The fundamental negative reaction is based more on the perceived gain the Royals obtained short-term as insufficient to make them contenders - which then leads to the uproar.
As Dave Cameron even said - he's not convinced Myers will be an elite player - but he doesn't have to be elite to make this a bad deal. It's that the perceived gain wasn't worth the cost - and that's before Odorizzi is involved.
If KC contends the next 2 years - they prove the doubters wrong. But if they just go the middle of the pack - the potential for disaster-level outcome is huge (TOR dumping V-dub on ANA for Napoli recent example, AA re-gifted Napoli to lessen the optics but wow).
I'm just not so sure middle of the pack is a disaster though. For one, it lets them become buyers come deadline day. Two, it can energize a fan base that hasn't had anything to talk about for a quarter century. Three, it shows FA's and their own players that they actually will take shots at winning. (Just read some of the posts in the Yahoo! story from KC fans) Four, it puts them in position for a luckbox season.
Or...
They could do nothing, let Myers develop, post another 75 win season, let their young players wonder wtf is going on (and probably stagnate), let FA's look past KC yet again next year, etc. Given these choices, it seems like a no brainer actually. He had to make a move, and he made the best one he could. A+ handling imo, even if the net result isn't what others think is ideal. Put another way, if your ceiling while doing nothing is a 5/10 score, and this move gives you a shot at 7/10 and a floor of 4/10, do you really care if everyone is saying you suck because you didn't achieve a 9/10?
As to your bolded part, this is true... but is (ironically) short-term thinking. Why does KC have to be done yet? If KC is 3-4 games out in June, Moore can make another move or two and go for it. But he can't if they're 10+ games out already because their SP's are awful.
KC unfortunately can never be a TB:
1) Their owner is going to spend even less then they are in TB.
2) They aren't able to develop players like TB is, despite being handed an even better pool of talent.
Which means their window to compete is actually pretty small. So, with such a short, you have to give it a shot. IMO.
I actually disagree with you on Moore's future. I don't think he's developed talent all that well at all, given the kind of picks he was handed. Alot of their young players have alot of flaws that other teams seem able to train out of them in the minors. Yet his track record as a GM shows him to be decent, given his crappy hand.
9 Keepers*
C Mauer*
1B Goldschmidt*
2B Utley*
3B Moustakas*
SS
OF Trout*, Trumbo*
Util
Bench Billy Hamilton*
SP
RP Kimbrel*, Jansen*
Prospects - Dylan Bundy, Carlos Martinez, Taijuan Walker, Tyler Thornburg, Kolton Wong, Anthony Gose
#30
Posted 11 December 2012 - 07:49 PM
This move really emulates what Toronto is doing but KC just isn't there yet. Nobody was looking at this team like it was right on the cusp but that is what the talk is of. The Myers trade does remind me of the Brett Lawrie trade though, only in reverse heh.
My Roster
PG --- Chris Paul (LAC) === [3rd Overall]
PF/C --- Serge Ibaka (OKC) === [27th Overall]
PF/C --- Anthony Davis (NO) === [46th Overall]
PF --- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) === [22nd]
PF/C --- Kevin Garnett (BOS) === [51st]
PG --- Goran Dragic (PHX) === [48th / Trade]
SG/SF --- Klay Thompson (GS) === [70th]
SG/SF --- Aaron Afflalo (ORL) === [94th]
PG/SG --- Jamal Crawford (LAC) === [FA]
SF/PF --- Earl Clark (LAL) === [FA]
C --- Tiago Splitter (SA) === [FA]
PG/SG --- Erics Bledsoe (LAC) === [FA]
Originally Drafted But No Longer On Team
C - Brook Lopez (BKN) = [75th] , SG - O.J. Mayo (DAL) = [99th] , PG - Jameer Nelson (ORL) = [118th] , PG/SG - Greivis Vasquez (NO) = [123rd]
#31
Posted 12 December 2012 - 12:01 AM
C-V-Mart
1B-Rizzo
2B-Pedroia
SS-Escobar
3B-Moustakas
MI-Zorbist
CI-Alonzo
OF-Cespedas
OF-Gordon
OF-Beltran
OF-Cruz
Util-McClouth, Gomez
Bench-Aviles, Kubel, Montero,
DL-Reyes, Hanley
SP-Felix, C.C., Latos, Price, Burnett, Haren, Santana, Garza, Hellickson, Beachy(DL)
RP-Soriano, Bailey, Balfour
#32
Posted 12 December 2012 - 12:13 AM
GreenGold74, on 12 December 2012 - 12:01 AM, said:
Fair enough on A's breaking through - but they didn't trade away their youth to get their 2012 results - they traded their more expensive assets to get younger - and as it turns out, better. If the A's didn't make the playoffs, their moves would have been seen as great long-term moves (trading away Bailey & Gio & Cahill cleared $ and got them a bunch of guys back - and because they weren't seen as contenders with those guys in the fold, reloading was the right call even before 2012 happened). Here, the Royals are all about the short-term, and for a shorter period of control.
And don't get me wrong - I understand why the Royals acted - as you said, though, it was a huge overpay.
AL-only 5x5, Roto - 2010 & 2011 league champion
RotoWood 2011 League Runner-Up - Mixed Roto regular season / H2H playoff 5x5 format - 3rd place reg. season, lost in finals
Been a blast everyone - take care, and remember to abide by the CoC, and to help your fellow community out - it's what's made the Forum community great!
P.S. My passion is primarily FBB - you'd LOL at my football track record!
#33
Posted 12 December 2012 - 12:47 AM
Of course I speak of the best case scenario but my argument simply has been the Royals if they seriously wanted to move up the ladder needed an established ace at the top of their rotation. And Wade Davis from all I read seems very hungry and excited about the prospect of starting again and that excitement could turn into him reaching some of his early prospect potential that was stagnated on a reduced role with the Rays. All of his just speculation and theory on my part and we'll see how this plays out. If I was a Royals fan I'd be ecstatic that a move like this signifies they aren't interested in just using their revenue sharing to overpay for below average players and willing to make bold moves for bigger rewards for the team can achieve the next couple years.
The only criticism is that I feel like the GM showed his cards to blatantly for his desire of SP and allowed himself to be leveraged into paying too steep a price. He broke a golden rule for GM's by showing his cards and desperation. But I do agree with the principle of the idea and hope as a fellow mid market team it works out for them and their fans.
C-V-Mart
1B-Rizzo
2B-Pedroia
SS-Escobar
3B-Moustakas
MI-Zorbist
CI-Alonzo
OF-Cespedas
OF-Gordon
OF-Beltran
OF-Cruz
Util-McClouth, Gomez
Bench-Aviles, Kubel, Montero,
DL-Reyes, Hanley
SP-Felix, C.C., Latos, Price, Burnett, Haren, Santana, Garza, Hellickson, Beachy(DL)
RP-Soriano, Bailey, Balfour
#34
Posted 12 December 2012 - 06:04 AM
#35
Posted 12 December 2012 - 03:00 PM
To put it bluntly, Oakland knows what they are. Oakland knows what they need to do to win and to survive. KC clearly does not and are trying to create something from nothing. If they embraced their role and stuck with the way they were building instead of flipping the script midway a veritable run of sustained success seemed much more likely. They mortgaged their future even though all their top assets won't mature until just then, the future.
My Roster
PG --- Chris Paul (LAC) === [3rd Overall]
PF/C --- Serge Ibaka (OKC) === [27th Overall]
PF/C --- Anthony Davis (NO) === [46th Overall]
PF --- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) === [22nd]
PF/C --- Kevin Garnett (BOS) === [51st]
PG --- Goran Dragic (PHX) === [48th / Trade]
SG/SF --- Klay Thompson (GS) === [70th]
SG/SF --- Aaron Afflalo (ORL) === [94th]
PG/SG --- Jamal Crawford (LAC) === [FA]
SF/PF --- Earl Clark (LAL) === [FA]
C --- Tiago Splitter (SA) === [FA]
PG/SG --- Erics Bledsoe (LAC) === [FA]
Originally Drafted But No Longer On Team
C - Brook Lopez (BKN) = [75th] , SG - O.J. Mayo (DAL) = [99th] , PG - Jameer Nelson (ORL) = [118th] , PG/SG - Greivis Vasquez (NO) = [123rd]
#36
Posted 12 December 2012 - 04:06 PM
crazy47larry, on 12 December 2012 - 03:00 PM, said:
To put it bluntly, Oakland knows what they are. Oakland knows what they need to do to win and to survive. KC clearly does not and are trying to create something from nothing. If they embraced their role and stuck with the way they were building instead of flipping the script midway a veritable run of sustained success seemed much more likely. They mortgaged their future even though all their top assets won't mature until just then, the future.
Now...they have core group, which really has somewhat equal service timeline: Milone, Parker, Reddick, Cook, Norris, Straily, and some of the other good young guys are all coming up as a core within similar clocks of their debuts. Beane has done this before, just hasnt come together like it did in 2012.
#37
Posted 12 December 2012 - 06:13 PM
parrothead, on 12 December 2012 - 04:06 PM, said:
crazy47larry, on 12 December 2012 - 03:00 PM, said:
To put it bluntly, Oakland knows what they are. Oakland knows what they need to do to win and to survive. KC clearly does not and are trying to create something from nothing. If they embraced their role and stuck with the way they were building instead of flipping the script midway a veritable run of sustained success seemed much more likely. They mortgaged their future even though all their top assets won't mature until just then, the future.
Now...they have core group, which really has somewhat equal service timeline: Milone, Parker, Reddick, Cook, Norris, Straily, and some of the other good young guys are all coming up as a core within similar clocks of their debuts. Beane has done this before, just hasnt come together like it did in 2012.
My Roster
PG --- Chris Paul (LAC) === [3rd Overall]
PF/C --- Serge Ibaka (OKC) === [27th Overall]
PF/C --- Anthony Davis (NO) === [46th Overall]
PF --- Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) === [22nd]
PF/C --- Kevin Garnett (BOS) === [51st]
PG --- Goran Dragic (PHX) === [48th / Trade]
SG/SF --- Klay Thompson (GS) === [70th]
SG/SF --- Aaron Afflalo (ORL) === [94th]
PG/SG --- Jamal Crawford (LAC) === [FA]
SF/PF --- Earl Clark (LAL) === [FA]
C --- Tiago Splitter (SA) === [FA]
PG/SG --- Erics Bledsoe (LAC) === [FA]
Originally Drafted But No Longer On Team
C - Brook Lopez (BKN) = [75th] , SG - O.J. Mayo (DAL) = [99th] , PG - Jameer Nelson (ORL) = [118th] , PG/SG - Greivis Vasquez (NO) = [123rd]
#38
Posted 09 May 2013 - 06:30 PM
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