205 replies to this topic

[baltimore_boy]

Davis had a career year last year, putting up 33 homers and 85 RBI's while also hitting a respectable .270. Davis is definitely a hacker with very limited plate discipline, but can he hit enough out this year to make him worth the pick this year. It seems like he is still a little bit underrated, as he has hot and cold spells.

What do you say. Can he take another step forward and top 40? Or will he turn into Eric Hosmer and be an extreme disappointment this year? Or is there an in-between?

[parrothead]

I dont think a ton of owners are on board with him that in an auction, he is going to be overvalued or even pay normal market rate for his numbers last year.  He likely wont be in our auction as he was a free agent pick up probably worth keeping, but if he were there, also lost 3B eligibility although for me, I wouldnt want to be "all in" with him as my 3B, I kind of like the fact he is OF elig, maybe stick him in the 3rd to 5th OF spot, if he does great then Im good if not OF are one of the few positions on our WW worth much value.

[crazy47larry]

I am not necessarily targeting him right now but I could see going after him in the right context. Obviously his ADP is most important. If I remember correct he was not a fixture in the lineup until much later in the season, if at all. The thing is power is extremely hard to find in the latter stages of the draft so that is a huge bonus for targeting him.

[jsp2014]

the good: despite the Ks, he has a great batted ball profile and sustains a high BABIP. he doesn't have the AVG downside of a guy like Reynolds.

the bad: when you strike out 30% of PAs, those are a lot of PAs where you didn't put the ball in play and it can't be a HR. he also had the 3rd highest HR/FB in baseball, behind Dunn and Hamilton. he's got ridiculous power so I'm not saying it's a fluke, but it is hard to project growth.

also think about stats that correlate with R and RBI. lineup matters but also consider this:

- there is a strong correlation between AVG, SLG, K% and RBI. if you strikeout, that means no sac fly or RBI groundout. if you don't get a hit often, that means not driving in the runner from 2nd. he'll get his because he gets a lot of XBH, but 100 is probably his ceiling.

- there is a strong correlation between R and OBP. the Orioles let him be who he is, which is a hacker, and he had a .320 OBP in his breakout year. not a lot of R upside.

- 3B eligibility is probably gone for good.


the keys to a true breakout lie in his strikeouts. I don't expect that to change because the Orioles let him be himself and hack away.


I think a repeat of 2011 is likely, with a little bit of extra R/RBI as he gets more PAs, but roughly the same HRs given lightly regression to the mean in HR/FB

.265, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 75 R

[baltimore_boy]

crazy47larry, on 21 December 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

I am not necessarily targeting him right now but I could see going after him in the right context. Obviously his ADP is most important. If I remember correct he was not a fixture in the lineup until much later in the season, if at all. The thing is power is extremely hard to find in the latter stages of the draft so that is a huge bonus for targeting him.

He got off to a hot start before hitting a rough patch, so he rotated in and out then and still managed top put up those numbers. He should be in everday this year at either 1B or DH.

[jsp2014]

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 07:41 AM, said:

crazy47larry, on 21 December 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

I am not necessarily targeting him right now but I could see going after him in the right context. Obviously his ADP is most important. If I remember correct he was not a fixture in the lineup until much later in the season, if at all. The thing is power is extremely hard to find in the latter stages of the draft so that is a huge bonus for targeting him.

He got off to a hot start before hitting a rough patch, so he rotated in and out then and still managed top put up those numbers. He should be in everday this year at either 1B or DH.

problem is, if he goes through another one of those extended slumps, he could find himself on the bench again.

[crazy47larry]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:07 PM, said:

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 07:41 AM, said:

crazy47larry, on 21 December 2012 - 12:47 AM, said:

I am not necessarily targeting him right now but I could see going after him in the right context. Obviously his ADP is most important. If I remember correct he was not a fixture in the lineup until much later in the season, if at all. The thing is power is extremely hard to find in the latter stages of the draft so that is a huge bonus for targeting him.

He got off to a hot start before hitting a rough patch, so he rotated in and out then and still managed top put up those numbers. He should be in everday this year at either 1B or DH.

problem is, if he goes through another one of those extended slumps, he could find himself on the bench again.

Which is possible, if not likely, given his approach.

[mjb03003]

Not a lot of chatter on Chris Davis this spring. Just read an article on Yahoo that labeled him as a member of the All-Underrated team. I tend to agree. 30 HR power is hard to find, and he is going well after Ike Davis in most drafts despite their similar profiles.

[96mnc]

mjb03003, on 27 March 2013 - 09:07 AM, said:

Not a lot of chatter on Chris Davis this spring. Just read an article on Yahoo that labeled him as a member of the All-Underrated team. I tend to agree. 30 HR power is hard to find, and he is going well after Ike Davis in most drafts despite their similar profiles.

With Ike you get a bit more certainty so you're paying for that.    I can say with 95% confidence that Ike repeats his performance of last year minimum and more than likely exceeds it (barring injury).  I can't say the same for Davis.

[abrunn11]

I much rather take Chris Carter 200 picks later and get very similar production.

[yoda]

mjb03003, on 27 March 2013 - 09:07 AM, said:

Not a lot of chatter on Chris Davis this spring. Just read an article on Yahoo that labeled him as a member of the All-Underrated team. I tend to agree. 30 HR power is hard to find, and he is going well after Ike Davis in most drafts despite their similar profiles.

Ike has much better plate discipline so I don't think the comparison is accurate.  Chris is closer to Reyolds.

[nittanychris]

Absolutely no way this guy takes another step forward this year. He is a PRIME candidate for regression, ESPECIALLY in batting average. If the O's stick with him he will get his fair share of HRs (think 25-28) but his batting average will drop 50 points easy this year. He's a .220 hitter. If you can absorb the batting average than go for it. But I'm staying away.

Edited by nittanychris, 27 March 2013 - 08:03 PM.

[ballfan4141]

carter has no one in his lineup. davis has jones, weiters, ect. this dude was a breakout type guy after his half of season with the rangers. not saying his will improve on last years numbers but dont see him batting .220 this year.

[Travis_Fryman#17]

abrunn11, on 27 March 2013 - 06:34 PM, said:

I much rather take Chris Carter 200 picks later and get very similar production.

Copy this.

[mjk356]

Chris Carter is going to be money in an OBP or BB league, somewhat different profile than Davis as a hitter.  Carter showed the potential last season to be an elite BB guy, to go along with huge power, tons of Ks, and low average.

Davis is very similar to Mark Trumbo IMO.  Tons of power, poor plate discipline, low BBs, high Ks.  Although, I like Trumbo slightly more than Davis because he's managed to keep his K rate in the 23-25% range while Davis has consistently been in the 30% range.

Edited by mjk356, 27 March 2013 - 08:30 PM.

[pierceNKC]

Hit a bomb today - 3 run jack.

[ballfan4141]

better than carter easily. would take this guy on my team but didnt get to drafting him. this dude will match last years numbers.

[verycoolnin]

My guess is that he regresses a little but still puts up power numbers: .250/.340/.500, 31 HR, 90 RBI

[FouLLine]

mjb03003, on 27 March 2013 - 09:07 AM, said:

Not a lot of chatter on Chris Davis this spring. Just read an article on Yahoo that labeled him as a member of the All-Underrated team. I tend to agree. 30 HR power is hard to find, and he is going well after Ike Davis in most drafts despite their similar profiles.

I felt the same exact way.  I think Chris Davis is the better player yet he was going later in drafts.

[FouLLine]

verycoolnin, on 02 April 2013 - 07:29 PM, said:

My guess is that he regresses a little but still puts up power numbers: .250/.340/.500, 31 HR, 90 RBI

Chris Davis is well beyond regressing at this point in his career.  He was an elite hitter in the minors for many years.  I think at 27 some of that is ready to take his game to the next level.  I think him and Freeman both drastically improve this year.  Chris Davis is a guy capable of .590 slugging percentages.Not many guys have better AA and AAA numbers than Chris Davis.