Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

- - - - -

New York Mets 2013 OutlookNYM


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
151 replies to this topic

#1 NYR Fan 116894

NYR Fan 116894

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,251 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 03:02 PM

Mets managed to hold extend their star player, David Wright, to make him the face of the franchise for the next 8 years. Now reports are saying that a trade to the Blue Jays involving RA Dickey is imminent, and the Mets sound like they would be receiving a very good prospect catcher in Travis D'arnaud. Thoughts on the Mets offseason and future of this club?
Adam Brown (Fearless)=Hero. May you never be forgotten.

#2 TheJRod2006

TheJRod2006

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,509 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 03:11 PM

If they didn't keep Wright, they may as well have just sold the team and let someone else try.

I don't blame them for selling high on Dickey, the Mets won't be contenders over the next 2 years so move Dickey now while his value is at an all-time high and get another piece or two.
Do you really care who is on my team? I have Mike Trout and Arian Foster in keeper leagues in their respective sports.

Twitter: @MrJaredMoore

#3 NYR Fan 116894

NYR Fan 116894

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,251 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

View PostTheJRod2006, on 15 December 2012 - 03:11 PM, said:

If they didn't keep Wright, they may as well have just sold the team and let someone else try.

I don't blame them for selling high on Dickey, the Mets won't be contenders over the next 2 years so move Dickey now while his value is at an all-time high and get another piece or two.

Yeah, this team needed to lock up Wright long term. The Mets are building for the future, they know they won't win this year or next year. But I like the future of this team, especially if they can get D'arnaud. Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Nimmo, not to mention D'arnaud, I like the look of this team if everyone pans out.
Adam Brown (Fearless)=Hero. May you never be forgotten.

#4 Posting In The Clutch

Posting In The Clutch

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 03:57 PM

I think the outlook is fairly bright. They'll likely struggle a bit in 2013, but with a few emerging prospects and some quality free agent pickups, they could surprise a lot of people in 2014. I like the idea of selling high on Dickey for D'arnaud and Gose. Wright, Davis, and D'arnaud is a solid core to build around. Harvey (who I think is and will be a stud), Wheeler, Niese, Santana, and Gee (McHugh is another decent option should someone get hurt) is a formidable rotation. As I see it, the most glaring needs for the Mets are OF and the bullpen. Bullpens are usually an easy fix. But that OF needs to get A LOT better for this team to compete. Duda was disappointing last season. I still think he could come around. I'd like to see what Valdespin can do as an everyday player in the middle infield.
I remember one evening in the pouring rain
And in my heart there was an aching pain
Fare thee well, my honey, fare thee well

#5 NYR Fan 116894

NYR Fan 116894

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,251 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 05:06 PM

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 15 December 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

I think the outlook is fairly bright. They'll likely struggle a bit in 2013, but with a few emerging prospects and some quality free agent pickups, they could surprise a lot of people in 2014. I like the idea of selling high on Dickey for D'arnaud and Gose. Wright, Davis, and D'arnaud is a solid core to build around. Harvey (who I think is and will be a stud), Wheeler, Niese, Santana, and Gee (McHugh is another decent option should someone get hurt) is a formidable rotation. As I see it, the most glaring needs for the Mets are OF and the bullpen. Bullpens are usually an easy fix. But that OF needs to get A LOT better for this team to compete. Duda was disappointing last season. I still think he could come around. I'd like to see what Valdespin can do as an everyday player in the middle infield.

That OF does need help. They drafted Brandon Nimmo 2 years ago I believe, but I'm unsure of his upside. Baseball America rates Nimmo as the 3rd best prospect in the Mets system.
Adam Brown (Fearless)=Hero. May you never be forgotten.

#6 TheJRod2006

TheJRod2006

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,509 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:54 PM

View PostNYR Fan 116894, on 15 December 2012 - 05:06 PM, said:

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 15 December 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

I think the outlook is fairly bright. They'll likely struggle a bit in 2013, but with a few emerging prospects and some quality free agent pickups, they could surprise a lot of people in 2014. I like the idea of selling high on Dickey for D'arnaud and Gose. Wright, Davis, and D'arnaud is a solid core to build around. Harvey (who I think is and will be a stud), Wheeler, Niese, Santana, and Gee (McHugh is another decent option should someone get hurt) is a formidable rotation. As I see it, the most glaring needs for the Mets are OF and the bullpen. Bullpens are usually an easy fix. But that OF needs to get A LOT better for this team to compete. Duda was disappointing last season. I still think he could come around. I'd like to see what Valdespin can do as an everyday player in the middle infield.

That OF does need help. They drafted Brandon Nimmo 2 years ago I believe, but I'm unsure of his upside. Baseball America rates Nimmo as the 3rd best prospect in the Mets system.

The Mets will also get some more payroll flexibility after next season, I believe, when Santana's contract comes off the books (not to mention being done paying Jason Bay). That said, I dont know if the OF situation will be much better next offseason via free agency. I think Pence and Ellsbury are FAs, but I would also think they will be fairly highly regarded and coveted. It's hard to imagine the post-Madoff Mets winning any bidding wars, but they really haven't been in any either.

Nimmo is still a few years away, from what I understand.
Do you really care who is on my team? I have Mike Trout and Arian Foster in keeper leagues in their respective sports.

Twitter: @MrJaredMoore

#7 NYR Fan 116894

NYR Fan 116894

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,251 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:17 PM

View PostTheJRod2006, on 15 December 2012 - 08:54 PM, said:

View PostNYR Fan 116894, on 15 December 2012 - 05:06 PM, said:

View PostPosting In The Clutch, on 15 December 2012 - 03:57 PM, said:

I think the outlook is fairly bright. They'll likely struggle a bit in 2013, but with a few emerging prospects and some quality free agent pickups, they could surprise a lot of people in 2014. I like the idea of selling high on Dickey for D'arnaud and Gose. Wright, Davis, and D'arnaud is a solid core to build around. Harvey (who I think is and will be a stud), Wheeler, Niese, Santana, and Gee (McHugh is another decent option should someone get hurt) is a formidable rotation. As I see it, the most glaring needs for the Mets are OF and the bullpen. Bullpens are usually an easy fix. But that OF needs to get A LOT better for this team to compete. Duda was disappointing last season. I still think he could come around. I'd like to see what Valdespin can do as an everyday player in the middle infield.

That OF does need help. They drafted Brandon Nimmo 2 years ago I believe, but I'm unsure of his upside. Baseball America rates Nimmo as the 3rd best prospect in the Mets system.

The Mets will also get some more payroll flexibility after next season, I believe, when Santana's contract comes off the books (not to mention being done paying Jason Bay). That said, I dont know if the OF situation will be much better next offseason via free agency. I think Pence and Ellsbury are FAs, but I would also think they will be fairly highly regarded and coveted. It's hard to imagine the post-Madoff Mets winning any bidding wars, but they really haven't been in any either.

Nimmo is still a few years away, from what I understand.

Yeah, he is probably 2-3 years away.
Adam Brown (Fearless)=Hero. May you never be forgotten.

#8 SundayKindofLove

SundayKindofLove

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,882 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.

Edited by SundayKindofLove, 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM.

"He hears the crescendoing last chords of the national anthem and sees the great open horseshoe of the grandstand and that unfolding vision of the grass that always seems to mean he has stepped outside his life - the rubbed shine that sweeps and bends from the raked dirt of the infield out to the high green fences. It is the excitement of a revealed thing."

#9 jsp2014

jsp2014

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,636 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 10:44 PM

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM, said:

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.


sure but they've been operating as a mid-market team and mid-market teams have no choice but to build through their farm system and by picking up gems off the scrap heap, eg Dickey. even big market teams need to produce young talent. there's only so much money you can throw at free agents, especially considering most big-ticket players get locked up through their age 35+ seasons.

Minaya left the team ravaged. they had few MLB assets that could command anything of value, and the farm system was one of MLB's worst. they've already pumped out a bit of MLB talent. Tejada is a starting caliber SS. Niese is one of the better young SPs in the game. Ike is one of the better young power hitters in MLB, at least as far as raw power goes. Harvey looked like a legitimate stud in his time in MLB last season. this is all cheap, young MLB talent that the team controls for several more years.

I am as pessimistic a Mets fan as it gets. they're not going to compete this year, but the team has as much young, cost-controlled talent going back as long as I can remember. I think they're headed in a positive direction and I'm hopeful that if it gets to the point when the team is ready to compete, ownership will be willing to let Alderson et al augment the roster with free agents.

Edited by jsp2014, 15 December 2012 - 10:45 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#10 SundayKindofLove

SundayKindofLove

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,882 posts

Posted 15 December 2012 - 11:00 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM, said:

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.


sure but they've been operating as a mid-market team and mid-market teams have no choice but to build through their farm system and by picking up gems off the scrap heap, eg Dickey. even big market teams need to produce young talent. there's only so much money you can throw at free agents, especially considering most big-ticket players get locked up through their age 35+ seasons.

Minaya left the team ravaged. they had few MLB assets that could command anything of value, and the farm system was one of MLB's worst. they've already pumped out a bit of MLB talent. Tejada is a starting caliber SS. Niese is one of the better young SPs in the game. Ike is one of the better young power hitters in MLB, at least as far as raw power goes. Harvey looked like a legitimate stud in his time in MLB last season. this is all cheap, young MLB talent that the team controls for several more years.

I am as pessimistic a Mets fan as it gets. they're not going to compete this year, but the team has as much young, cost-controlled talent going back as long as I can remember. I think they're headed in a positive direction and I'm hopeful that if it gets to the point when the team is ready to compete, ownership will be willing to let Alderson et al augment the roster with free agents.

I don't see the disagreement. We're getting some young studs back (if this is correct the #1 and probably #3,4 or 5 prospect for a very strong Farm system). Again my main point is the tiresome wait, irrespective of the wisdom of the decisions (they are wise), the current fiscal condition of the team (mid-market may be too kind) and the substance of the prospects (very hearty).

This is New York, which changes the equation. You can have all of the three things I mentioned, and fans will not give a crap. (I don't count myself in that pile). But let's face it, everyone gets tired. It's something that a FO can never measure, the "tiresomeness" of the fan base.
"He hears the crescendoing last chords of the national anthem and sees the great open horseshoe of the grandstand and that unfolding vision of the grass that always seems to mean he has stepped outside his life - the rubbed shine that sweeps and bends from the raked dirt of the infield out to the high green fences. It is the excitement of a revealed thing."

#11 jsp2014

jsp2014

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,636 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 01:19 AM

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM, said:

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.


sure but they've been operating as a mid-market team and mid-market teams have no choice but to build through their farm system and by picking up gems off the scrap heap, eg Dickey. even big market teams need to produce young talent. there's only so much money you can throw at free agents, especially considering most big-ticket players get locked up through their age 35+ seasons.

Minaya left the team ravaged. they had few MLB assets that could command anything of value, and the farm system was one of MLB's worst. they've already pumped out a bit of MLB talent. Tejada is a starting caliber SS. Niese is one of the better young SPs in the game. Ike is one of the better young power hitters in MLB, at least as far as raw power goes. Harvey looked like a legitimate stud in his time in MLB last season. this is all cheap, young MLB talent that the team controls for several more years.

I am as pessimistic a Mets fan as it gets. they're not going to compete this year, but the team has as much young, cost-controlled talent going back as long as I can remember. I think they're headed in a positive direction and I'm hopeful that if it gets to the point when the team is ready to compete, ownership will be willing to let Alderson et al augment the roster with free agents.

I don't see the disagreement. We're getting some young studs back (if this is correct the #1 and probably #3,4 or 5 prospect for a very strong Farm system). Again my main point is the tiresome wait, irrespective of the wisdom of the decisions (they are wise), the current fiscal condition of the team (mid-market may be too kind) and the substance of the prospects (very hearty).

This is New York, which changes the equation. You can have all of the three things I mentioned, and fans will not give a crap. (I don't count myself in that pile). But let's face it, everyone gets tired. It's something that a FO can never measure, the "tiresomeness" of the fan base.

it's true that the average fan doesn't understand this, but it takes time. when you try to rush things before they're ready, you trade Wil Myers+ for James Shields and you hope you get really lucky and squeak into the playoffs one year.

when Minaya was canned, I thought they'd be on an 8-year plan. like I said, the whole team was completely ravaged. they had a bottom 10 farm system, no assets with trade value, lots of overpaid vets at the major league level. just a complete disaster.

now I'm hopeful that it's a 4-year plan. you know what will derail that plan though? long-term contracts. long-term contracts, by nature, benefit the team in the short-term and harm the team in the long-term. why would a rebuilding team want that? I'm not even worried about a Jason Bay deal. I'm worried that even a Prince Fielder type deal would get them the player's best years when they're an 80-win team, and add an albatross to the payroll once the team is ready to compete.

when Minaya left, the team had no real shot at the playoffs for a few years. that's something that everyone needs to understand. by rushing things, we'll only wind up farther away from October baseball. the reality is that the rebuilding plan has been accelerated by savvy moves (we'll let that Pagan trade slide :) )

Edited by jsp2014, 16 December 2012 - 01:21 AM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#12 SundayKindofLove

SundayKindofLove

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,882 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 01:50 AM

View Postjsp2014, on 16 December 2012 - 01:19 AM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM, said:

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.


sure but they've been operating as a mid-market team and mid-market teams have no choice but to build through their farm system and by picking up gems off the scrap heap, eg Dickey. even big market teams need to produce young talent. there's only so much money you can throw at free agents, especially considering most big-ticket players get locked up through their age 35+ seasons.

Minaya left the team ravaged. they had few MLB assets that could command anything of value, and the farm system was one of MLB's worst. they've already pumped out a bit of MLB talent. Tejada is a starting caliber SS. Niese is one of the better young SPs in the game. Ike is one of the better young power hitters in MLB, at least as far as raw power goes. Harvey looked like a legitimate stud in his time in MLB last season. this is all cheap, young MLB talent that the team controls for several more years.

I am as pessimistic a Mets fan as it gets. they're not going to compete this year, but the team has as much young, cost-controlled talent going back as long as I can remember. I think they're headed in a positive direction and I'm hopeful that if it gets to the point when the team is ready to compete, ownership will be willing to let Alderson et al augment the roster with free agents.

I don't see the disagreement. We're getting some young studs back (if this is correct the #1 and probably #3,4 or 5 prospect for a very strong Farm system). Again my main point is the tiresome wait, irrespective of the wisdom of the decisions (they are wise), the current fiscal condition of the team (mid-market may be too kind) and the substance of the prospects (very hearty).

This is New York, which changes the equation. You can have all of the three things I mentioned, and fans will not give a crap. (I don't count myself in that pile). But let's face it, everyone gets tired. It's something that a FO can never measure, the "tiresomeness" of the fan base.

it's true that the average fan doesn't understand this, but it takes time. when you try to rush things before they're ready, you trade Wil Myers+ for James Shields and you hope you get really lucky and squeak into the playoffs one year.

when Minaya was canned, I thought they'd be on an 8-year plan. like I said, the whole team was completely ravaged. they had a bottom 10 farm system, no assets with trade value, lots of overpaid vets at the major league level. just a complete disaster.

now I'm hopeful that it's a 4-year plan. you know what will derail that plan though? long-term contracts. long-term contracts, by nature, benefit the team in the short-term and harm the team in the long-term. why would a rebuilding team want that? I'm not even worried about a Jason Bay deal. I'm worried that even a Prince Fielder type deal would get them the player's best years when they're an 80-win team, and add an albatross to the payroll once the team is ready to compete.

when Minaya left, the team had no real shot at the playoffs for a few years. that's something that everyone needs to understand. by rushing things, we'll only wind up farther away from October baseball. the reality is that the rebuilding plan has been accelerated by savvy moves (we'll let that Pagan trade slide :) )

I mean the problem is that we're dealing in hypotheticals without getting specific. Certainly a Jason-Bay type contract is undesirable, and maybe a Prince Field contract is undesirable, but honestly I can't really say. I have no idea what the fiscal condition of the team is (not having access to any balance sheet, income statement or statement of cash flow), although I I think it's safe to say that there is no new potential TV deal and an ensuing ginormous streams of revenue.

In sum, you're talking philosophy in respect to baseball management. I completely appreciate that, and I abide by certain general philosophies but to a point. It really is quite difficult to say whether FO is doing a good job in that respect without having more information. I choose not to go by blind faith or principles (I mean we can all agree that  we want a fiscally-intelligent FO, but really what is "fiscally-intelligent" without having more information and specifics?). What's wise for the Mets ain't wise for other teams in separate markets.
"He hears the crescendoing last chords of the national anthem and sees the great open horseshoe of the grandstand and that unfolding vision of the grass that always seems to mean he has stepped outside his life - the rubbed shine that sweeps and bends from the raked dirt of the infield out to the high green fences. It is the excitement of a revealed thing."

#13 jsp2014

jsp2014

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,636 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 01:53 AM

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 16 December 2012 - 01:50 AM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 16 December 2012 - 01:19 AM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 11:00 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 10:44 PM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 15 December 2012 - 10:32 PM, said:

The problem for Mets' fans over the last half-decade is that prospects always seem to be 2 or 3 years away. I don't doubt the front office's ability to evaluate players' skills and place numbers within context - we seem to have a lot more intellectual capital than in previous years. The problem is luck and risk are much higher in prospects than in known assets. Now increasing the number of "good" prospects will obviously increase the statistical probability that one will turn into gold, but it's not always a guarantee - see Kansas City, where the pressures of the market place can change strategy concerning future value. Time is what is required/necessary (but not sufficient) with prospects and it grows tiresome to keep on waiting.


sure but they've been operating as a mid-market team and mid-market teams have no choice but to build through their farm system and by picking up gems off the scrap heap, eg Dickey. even big market teams need to produce young talent. there's only so much money you can throw at free agents, especially considering most big-ticket players get locked up through their age 35+ seasons.

Minaya left the team ravaged. they had few MLB assets that could command anything of value, and the farm system was one of MLB's worst. they've already pumped out a bit of MLB talent. Tejada is a starting caliber SS. Niese is one of the better young SPs in the game. Ike is one of the better young power hitters in MLB, at least as far as raw power goes. Harvey looked like a legitimate stud in his time in MLB last season. this is all cheap, young MLB talent that the team controls for several more years.

I am as pessimistic a Mets fan as it gets. they're not going to compete this year, but the team has as much young, cost-controlled talent going back as long as I can remember. I think they're headed in a positive direction and I'm hopeful that if it gets to the point when the team is ready to compete, ownership will be willing to let Alderson et al augment the roster with free agents.

I don't see the disagreement. We're getting some young studs back (if this is correct the #1 and probably #3,4 or 5 prospect for a very strong Farm system). Again my main point is the tiresome wait, irrespective of the wisdom of the decisions (they are wise), the current fiscal condition of the team (mid-market may be too kind) and the substance of the prospects (very hearty).

This is New York, which changes the equation. You can have all of the three things I mentioned, and fans will not give a crap. (I don't count myself in that pile). But let's face it, everyone gets tired. It's something that a FO can never measure, the "tiresomeness" of the fan base.

it's true that the average fan doesn't understand this, but it takes time. when you try to rush things before they're ready, you trade Wil Myers+ for James Shields and you hope you get really lucky and squeak into the playoffs one year.

when Minaya was canned, I thought they'd be on an 8-year plan. like I said, the whole team was completely ravaged. they had a bottom 10 farm system, no assets with trade value, lots of overpaid vets at the major league level. just a complete disaster.

now I'm hopeful that it's a 4-year plan. you know what will derail that plan though? long-term contracts. long-term contracts, by nature, benefit the team in the short-term and harm the team in the long-term. why would a rebuilding team want that? I'm not even worried about a Jason Bay deal. I'm worried that even a Prince Fielder type deal would get them the player's best years when they're an 80-win team, and add an albatross to the payroll once the team is ready to compete.

when Minaya left, the team had no real shot at the playoffs for a few years. that's something that everyone needs to understand. by rushing things, we'll only wind up farther away from October baseball. the reality is that the rebuilding plan has been accelerated by savvy moves (we'll let that Pagan trade slide :) )

I mean the problem is that we're dealing in hypotheticals without getting specific. Certainly a Jason-Bay type contract is undesirable, and maybe a Prince Field contract is undesirable, but honestly I can't really say. I have no idea what the fiscal condition of the team is (not having access to any balance sheet, income statement or statement of cash flow), although I I think it's safe to say that there is no new potential TV deal and an ensuing ginormous streams of revenue.

In sum, you're talking philosophy in respect to baseball management. I completely appreciate that, and I abide by certain general philosophies but to a point. It really is quite difficult to say whether FO is doing a good job in that respect without having more information. I choose not to go by blind faith or principles (I mean we can all agree that  we want a fiscally-intelligent FO, but really what is "fiscally-intelligent" without having more information and specifics?). What's wise for the Mets ain't wise for other teams in separate markets.


no hypotheticals here. I am talking purely about the results to date, and it is clear as day. I look at the general health of the organization: farm system, young MLB talent, underpaid MLB vets, toxic assets. comparing it now to just 2 years ago is like night and day. the results ARE there if you look at the big picture, and not just at the team they're going to field in 2013. the New York Mets are no longer the laughing stock of the league and are in fact a healthy organization on the rise.

it feels really good to be able to say that and truly believe it.

Edited by jsp2014, 16 December 2012 - 01:56 AM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#14 SundayKindofLove

SundayKindofLove

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,882 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 01:57 AM

Quote


I look at the general health of the organization: farm system, young MLB talent, underpaid MLB vets, toxic assets. comparing it now to just 2 years ago is like night and day. the New York Mets are no longer the laughing stock of the league and are in fact a healthy organization on the rise.

it feels really good to be able to say that and truly believe it.

Perhaps you have insider information concerning toxic assets (presumably beyond the public information concerning player contracts- I hope that the mets have more assets than just their player contracts).

I am not articulating well enough. I believe in the FO (probably can't get much better), I also believe in "tiresomeness". One is intellectual, the other is visceral. The two clash and sometimes the visceral wins. That's something an FO can't manage, that's something that can upend the whole process.
"He hears the crescendoing last chords of the national anthem and sees the great open horseshoe of the grandstand and that unfolding vision of the grass that always seems to mean he has stepped outside his life - the rubbed shine that sweeps and bends from the raked dirt of the infield out to the high green fences. It is the excitement of a revealed thing."

#15 jsp2014

jsp2014

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,636 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 02:06 AM

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 16 December 2012 - 01:57 AM, said:

Quote


I look at the general health of the organization: farm system, young MLB talent, underpaid MLB vets, toxic assets. comparing it now to just 2 years ago is like night and day. the New York Mets are no longer the laughing stock of the league and are in fact a healthy organization on the rise.

it feels really good to be able to say that and truly believe it.

Perhaps you have insider information concerning toxic assets (presumably beyond the public information concerning player contracts- I hope that the mets have more assets than just their player contracts).

I am not articulating well enough. I believe in the FO (probably can't get much better), I also believe in "tiresomeness". One is intellectual, the other is visceral. The two clash and sometimes the visceral wins. That's something an FO can't manage, that's something that can upend the whole process.

not talking about mortgage backed securities here. by toxic assets, I mean bad contracts. they still owe Santana a ton of money and owe money to Bay, but after that, they've gotten out from under that part of Minaya's reign of terror.

I get what you're saying that people can't wait any longer, but guess what? too bad. the educated fan can wait a few years so that the team is ready to put a team on the field that has a chance to make the playoffs EVERY YEAR, as opposed to a hail mary for one or two years where they will maybe make the playoffs if things break their way. only 1 out of 15 teams will make the WS each year. the best way to get there is by fielding a contending team every single year. doing that takes time.

the spin on the Mets in the media has been noticeably more positive over the last year btw. that has a large effect on fan sentiment.

Edited by jsp2014, 16 December 2012 - 02:07 AM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#16 SundayKindofLove

SundayKindofLove

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,882 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 02:26 AM

View Postjsp2014, on 16 December 2012 - 02:06 AM, said:

View PostSundayKindofLove, on 16 December 2012 - 01:57 AM, said:

Quote


I look at the general health of the organization: farm system, young MLB talent, underpaid MLB vets, toxic assets. comparing it now to just 2 years ago is like night and day. the New York Mets are no longer the laughing stock of the league and are in fact a healthy organization on the rise.

it feels really good to be able to say that and truly believe it.

Perhaps you have insider information concerning toxic assets (presumably beyond the public information concerning player contracts- I hope that the mets have more assets than just their player contracts).

I am not articulating well enough. I believe in the FO (probably can't get much better), I also believe in "tiresomeness". One is intellectual, the other is visceral. The two clash and sometimes the visceral wins. That's something an FO can't manage, that's something that can upend the whole process.

not talking about mortgage backed securities here. by toxic assets, I mean bad contracts. they still owe Santana a ton of money and owe money to Bay, but after that, they've gotten out from under that part of Minaya's reign of terror.

I get what you're saying that people can't wait any longer, but guess what? too bad. the educated fan can wait a few years so that the team is ready to put a team on the field that has a chance to make the playoffs EVERY YEAR, as opposed to a hail mary for one or two years where they will maybe make the playoffs if things break their way. only 1 out of 15 teams will make the WS each year. the best way to get there is by fielding a contending team every single year. doing that takes time.

the spin on the Mets in the media has been noticeably more positive over the last year btw. that has a large effect on fan sentiment.

I don't even know what an "educated fan" is. And you have it wrong. It's not too bad for the fans, it is too bad for everyone involved if the fans get impatient.

A little bit quickly on faith and principle: Yes, the devil rays have built a model worth following, but if you blindly follow the devil rays model (whether that be using sabermetrics, etc. whatever) you lose out. The point of an intelligent FO is one that places its decision in the context - in finding market inefficiency (both relative to the entire MLB and specific to the organization) and correcting them. Not blindly following one model. I don't think the mets are doing that here, but I do think so-called "educated" fans do that, replacing one principle with another without really understanding the specifics of each baseball market (and how can they? this is not a matter for intelligence but rather information - fans by their nature and position will have information that is so imperfect it is difficult to rely on)
"He hears the crescendoing last chords of the national anthem and sees the great open horseshoe of the grandstand and that unfolding vision of the grass that always seems to mean he has stepped outside his life - the rubbed shine that sweeps and bends from the raked dirt of the infield out to the high green fences. It is the excitement of a revealed thing."

#17 LyondellBasell

LyondellBasell

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,438 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 07:32 AM

so we would trade dickey for a catching prospect with injury problems who;s soon to be 24. i dunno man... im accustomed to looking at things negatively with this team. catching prospects never seem to be all they're cracked up to be. dickey has plenty of years left.
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#18 GretzGretzky

GretzGretzky

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,790 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:40 AM

Olney on twitter:

@Buster_ESPN: Evaluators around MLB are beyond shocked TOR is talking about trading Travis d'Arnaud for a player with one year on his contract, Dickey.

@Buster_ESPN: The broad perception in the industry is that if the Mets pull this discussed Dickey deal for d'Arnaud, it's an incredible trade for them.

#19 GretzGretzky

GretzGretzky

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,790 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 08:58 AM

Rosenthal---

@Ken_Rosenthal: Can't judge reported proposals for #Mets' Dickey until deal complete. At first glance, D'Arnaud-Syndergaard seems overpay by #BlueJays . . .

#20 LyondellBasell

LyondellBasell

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,438 posts

Posted 16 December 2012 - 09:19 AM

Syndergaard too? reading some good stuff on him, now. okay, Sandy, click 'accept'
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball