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R.A. Dickey 2013 OutlookWill his magical knuckler carry over to the AL?


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#1 baltimore_boy

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 05:18 PM

While it's not official yet, it seems like the Mets are very close to sending Dickey to the Blue Jays. The reigning Cy Young winner is coming off a magical year. While he is old (38), his knuckler could keep it up and put up a solid year. Will his success transfer kindly to the AL East, or will he fall victim to the harsh environments the AL East hitting brings to pitchers?
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#2 WahooManiac

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 05:27 PM

I want to believe in him, knucklers last forever. Go Dickey! Thats going to be an exciting team to watch
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#3 poopdungbeatle

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 05:27 PM

I might be wrong, but imo when Dickey has the knuckleball doing it's thing, it doesn't matter what league/divison he's pitching in.  It would baffle the old yankee's murder's row.
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#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 06:31 PM

I think his fantasy value takes a solid hit.
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#5 kslackey

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 06:41 PM

Just finished his book. Pretty good.

#6 Theoneupper

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 06:42 PM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 15 December 2012 - 06:31 PM, said:

I think his fantasy value takes a solid hit.
Im not sure about a solid hit. It might take a slight hit because of the division. I dont think the Sox are the sox of a couple years ago and they Yankees arent blow you out of the water great either. Maybe its just me though.

Still, i would bump him down a little in my rankings.

#7 brockpapersizer

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 06:54 PM

View PostTheoneupper, on 15 December 2012 - 06:42 PM, said:

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 15 December 2012 - 06:31 PM, said:

I think his fantasy value takes a solid hit.
Im not sure about a solid hit. It might take a slight hit because of the division. I dont think the Sox are the sox of a couple years ago and they Yankees arent blow you out of the water great either. Maybe its just me though.

Still, i would bump him down a little in my rankings.

The whole DH vs P is one thing that warrants a hit.  

Playing indoors helps Dickey because he's susceptible to bad outings due to the rain.  However Citi Field is much friendlier than the Rodgers Centre. I hardly call the two a wash. Even those combined I'd still say thats a another slight hit for Dickey.

Phillies, Marlins (who are even worse), Nationals, and Braves are far easier lineups than Yanks, Sox, Orioles, and Rays.  (not to mention the aggregate park factors)

I think last year was a best case scenario for Dickey in terms of peripheral numbers. There tends to be fluctuation amongst knucklers from year to year too.

All in all, no way I'm touching him this year as a top 10 pitcher.  Although I don't think he falls of a cliff.

He doesn't even have that much increased win upside with him getting to 20 wins last year on the Mets.
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#8 Ragnaroker

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 07:20 PM

Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.

#9 crazy47larry

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 07:32 PM

View PostRagnaroker, on 15 December 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.
Interesting. I am surprised the Mets didn't take the money and run. It seemed like the Jays were blowing the competition away and had most of the leverage compared to the other suitors. They were bidding against themselves essentially.

It amazes me the Mets won't give him the sweet contract that he more than deserves.

Edited by crazy47larry, 15 December 2012 - 07:33 PM.


#10 jsp2014

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:27 PM

View PostRagnaroker, on 15 December 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.


mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.
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#11 dzemens

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:29 PM

Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.
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#12 NYR Fan 116894

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:32 PM

View Postdzemens, on 15 December 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.
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#13 Ragnaroker

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:33 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 08:27 PM, said:

View PostRagnaroker, on 15 December 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.


mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.

Just something I saw from rotoinfo around 6 cst. I'd guess you are right though.

#14 NYR Fan 116894

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:34 PM

View PostRagnaroker, on 15 December 2012 - 08:33 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 15 December 2012 - 08:27 PM, said:

View PostRagnaroker, on 15 December 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

Rumor has it the deal is dead now because they could not find a suitable offer.


mlbtr is not reporting this so I'm doubting the validity of this. By most accounts it seems they're just figuring out the details.

Just something I saw from rotoinfo around 6 cst. I'd guess you are right though.

I saw the same thing.
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#15 dzemens

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 08:36 PM

View PostNYR Fan 116894, on 15 December 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

View Postdzemens, on 15 December 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.

Thanks! Ive been out of pocket all day, Im a bit behind the curve atm.
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#16 NYR Fan 116894

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 09:31 PM

View Postdzemens, on 15 December 2012 - 08:36 PM, said:

View PostNYR Fan 116894, on 15 December 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

View Postdzemens, on 15 December 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

Is Thole headed to TOR with him? Cant imagine TOR has anyone that can catch a knuckler.

Yes, reportedly, Thole is going with him. 4 players will be headed to NYM, and 3 players will be going to TOR.

Thanks! Ive been out of pocket all day, Im a bit behind the curve atm.

No problem.
Adam Brown (Fearless)=Hero. May you never be forgotten.

#17 Ragnaroker

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Posted 15 December 2012 - 10:06 PM

According to RW the deal is almost done, should look something like this:



Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Mets and Blue Jays are nearing the completion of a seven-player trade involving knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

As currently constructed, the trade would send Dickey, Josh Thole and an unnamed (non-elite) prospect to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis d'Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and an unnamed (non-elite) prospect. Nothing is expected to be finalized until Sunday, so the parameters of the swap could certainly change before then.


#18 jamie

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 02:33 PM

Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much?  His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05.  With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9  should go down by 1.  Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's.  I'll give him 16 W's.  All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.

#19 Whoopie!

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 03:18 PM

View Postjamie, on 17 December 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much?  His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05.  With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9  should go down by 1.  Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's.  I'll give him 16 W's.  All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.


I disagree with everything here basically.  Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up.  They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year.   Hard to duplicate a year like that.  When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in.   You wont be able to hit him.  So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here.  He's that unorthodox.

#20 jsp2014

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 04:37 PM

View PostWhoopie!, on 17 December 2012 - 03:18 PM, said:

View Postjamie, on 17 December 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

Of course his value is going to go down, he was the #1 pitcher in 2012, but the question is how much?  His 3 yr avg of ERA and WHIP are 2.95 and 1.15, but his best years were in 2012, which were 2.73 and 1.05.  With the switch to the AL, I'd bump his 2013 ERA and whip projections to 3.25 and 1.25, and his K/9  should go down by 1.  Asuming 220 IP I'd estimate 196K's.  I'll give him 16 W's.  All told, top 25 material, maybe even top 20.


I disagree with everything here basically.  Don't compare leagues and suggest his #'s will go up.  They will probably go up just because he was so dominant last year.   Hard to duplicate a year like that.  When Dickey is on and has that knuckler dancing, it doesnt matter what league he's pitching in.   You wont be able to hit him.  So i'd be careful trying to use competition as a variable here.  He's that unorthodox.


this is silly. he's not just immune to park and league effects. not as if pitchers and DHs hit against him with equal success. and when he has a bad day, the Yankees will punish him a lot worse than the Marlins would.
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