204 replies to this topic

[GottaGetTheWin]

So now that most leagues are wrapping up next weekend I wanna see what people took away from the 2012 season.   There were a lot of new concepts coming into the season, QBs in the first round, Tes in the first round, waiting till later on RBs ect....

What did you guys take away from this season and how will if affect your thoughts going into next season.


For me I've basically taken away that QBs are a dime a dozen.  After Brady, Brees, Rodgers and probably RG3 then you can grab anyone and hope for the best.  I don't even put Cam in this category because up until the last few weeks he has been a massive disappointment.  

I've also learned that you can't count on any RB minus Foster and possibly Rice(man if Rice got a real workload).  

Based on how random TE has been this year I think its pretty key to get a Gronk or Graham. The difference between guaranteed points and guaranteed question marks  makes life so much easier.    If you can't then just wait until later because its a huge crapshoot.  

Read the sig for my final lesson learned.

[cowbell204]

GottaGetTheWin, on 17 December 2012 - 10:52 AM, said:

What did you guys take away from this season and how will if affect your thoughts going into next season.

That no matter how good or hot my teams are, I'm guaranteed to suck in the playoffs.

[fillypkno3]

2012 has taught me to put in your research and not to overthink certain situations.

I have pulled out several hairs out trying to be cute

[predator_05]

NEVER EVER EVER EVER DISCOUNT A PLAYER ON THE BASIS OF INJURY

Medicine and rehab techniques have come a long way, the '1 year rule' on injures like ACL tears no longer applies. If they have been cleared to play, you draft them. Forget about injury concerns.

I can imagine the guy who drafted Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson, laughing at everyone in his league right now.

Edited by predator_05, 17 December 2012 - 11:12 AM.

[green]

I agree QB early is a waste especially if you miss on one of the truly elite guys.

The WR you get in the second round tend to be a waste also.  Just not really any better than 4th or 5th round WRs usually.   Beware teams that have multiple good WRs (Packers, Giants, Atlanta, Dallas, etc), it's better to have a good WR on a team that only has one good WR.

Having an elite TE is really nice - but even having a Witten type guy is better than playing with scrubs.  Don't pay more than a 7th rounder if you miss on Gronk/Graham/Hernandez, but also don't be the last to get a TE.  I drafted Hernandez in almost every league this year, and his injury killed me, but man my team is completely different with him healthy versus not.

RB - never doubt Adrian Peterson.  I think that's just the main lesson that everybody in football learned this year.  But really, I learned not to draft "potential" with a early pick.  Production first, potential second.  Take a RB in the first and second and play it safe.  Foster, Peterson, Lynch, Richardson type guys in the first round - where you know are the main part of their teams offense and don't have coaching issues either.

[GottaGetTheWin]

fillypkno3, on 17 December 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

2012 has taught me to put in your research and not to overthink certain situations.

I have pulled out several hairs out trying to be cute

I second that.  I tried to play the matchups too much early in the season and then when I just let the guys I drafted to start start I started winning.

[bakes781]

TE definitely got overrated thanks to last year.  I drafted Antonio Gates in the 4th and I've had better luck with my other TE Olsen for the most part.

In a PPR you can still survive without drafting 2 RBs early.  I drafted CJ2K with my 1st pick & next RB I selected was Kevin Smith. lol I was lucky enough to nab Alfred Morris.

Be patient with your vets.  CJ2K is an obvious example, but I also drafted Wes Welker & Dez Bryant.

[klove42]

2012 taught me to never care about kickers, no matter the hype or the 147 page threads

[ipg46]

Well, this is my third year of fantasy, and I am in the finals in both my leagues for the first time, and here's my take (this is all non-PPR, no return-yardage, 1 point for 10 rush yards, 1 point for 15 receiving, 6 pts for all TDs):

1 - Spend your money/early draft pick on Brees/Brady/Rodgers. If you don't get one of these guys, then wait for a QB and get one cheap/in the late rounds

2 - Ignore that ESPN-analyst theory about drafting an "elite" TE in the early rounds. Keep TE till late, because now every NFL team is using the TE as a receiver more and there will always be a Myers/Rudolph/Bennett type guy who will be decent enough to plug in off waivers

3 - Load up on RBs after you get your elite QB (or if you don't get a top-3 QB, then just fill ALL your RB slots first). One of your RBs will pop and one or two others will give you a steady 8-12 points. In non-PPR leagues, I wouldn't touch WR until the 5th or 6th rounds.

4 - ALWAYS fill your flex spot with a RB. Don't overthink it. If you've drafted a bunch of RBs, then you should have a third starting RB. (My leagues reward rushing yardage a bit more, but still, a starting RB will always have a higher floor. Even Shonn Greene gives you a minimum of 8 points every week).

5 - Challenge that advice about playing matchups on Defense. Sure, it works sometimes, but over the season you're better off picking a defense that's playing well (Seattle, San Francisco, Denver, Arizona this year) and just sticking with them. Many people got cute and did things like bench the 49ers against New Orleans earlier this year.

Good luck to those who got lucky like me and are in the finals. See the rest of you next year.

[DaBearz15]

QBs are now deeper than ever. That's always kind of been a thing but it was always "you can wait and settle on a guy like Eli or Romo which isn't too terrible." However, with the emergence of this group of rookie QBs (lead by Luck and RG3) there's now about 9 elite QBs that I would be happy to have. Definitely should wait to grab a QB next year.

Not really a new thing but always go after players who are the most targeted in their offense, even in non-PPR leagues. You want that week to week floor.

Adrian Peterson is the best RB in Football. Period.

[SuperSurgeMC]

Virgil Green is going to break out next year

[nonstopfan]

Fantasy Football is a crap shoot. Even when you think you have it down to a science, it will smack you in the a$$ and ask you for a dollar or something like that

[Proteus]

Bump this thread in late August and you can answer:

Clearly Nothing

[Stingarov]

bakes781, on 17 December 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

TE definitely got overrated thanks to last year.  I drafted Antonio Gates in the 4th and I've had better luck with my other TE Olsen for the most part.

In a PPR you can still survive without drafting 2 RBs early.  I drafted CJ2K with my 1st pick & next RB I selected was Kevin Smith. lol I was lucky enough to nab Alfred Morris.

Be patient with your vets.  CJ2K is an obvious example, but I also drafted Wes Welker & Dez Bryant.

Absolutely. TE was awful this year.

[Rather B. Winning]

1.  DND injury prone guys.  I refrained from McFadden, Murray and Mathews for Megatron, Lynch, AJ Green etc.

2.  But my most important lesson was to spend the back end of my draft getting potential break out guys like Cobb, Russell Wilson, Black Unicorn instead of known commodity slugs like Brent Celek, Brandon Gibson, Anquan Boldin and the like.

3.  Pay very close attention to Mathew Berry and then do the opposite.

[bakes781]

Stingarov, on 17 December 2012 - 12:19 PM, said:

bakes781, on 17 December 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

TE definitely got overrated thanks to last year.  I drafted Antonio Gates in the 4th and I've had better luck with my other TE Olsen for the most part.

In a PPR you can still survive without drafting 2 RBs early.  I drafted CJ2K with my 1st pick & next RB I selected was Kevin Smith. lol I was lucky enough to nab Alfred Morris.

Be patient with your vets.  CJ2K is an obvious example, but I also drafted Wes Welker & Dez Bryant.

Absolutely. TE was awful this year.

The funny thing is I benefited from it the previous year by drafting Graham in like the 10th round. lol Although I ended up losing in the semis with him, Brees & Ray Rice go figure!

[GottaGetTheWin]

Rather B. Winning, on 17 December 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

3.  Pay very close attention to Mathew Berry and then do the opposite.

100% true.  He's the worst.

I also learned that in PPR leagues it is more valuable to have good consistent WRs than QBs.  In all my PPR leagues the teams that are in have some combo of AJ Green, Calvin, Roddy, Welker, etc...while they throw out guys like Beanie Wells and Danny Woodhead at RB.

[DocJ]

Rather B. Winning, on 17 December 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

2.  But my most important lesson was to spend the back end of my draft getting potential break out guys like Cobb, Russell Wilson, Black Unicorn instead of known commodity slugs like Brent Celek, Brandon Gibson, Anquan Boldin and the like.

Strongly agree with this one but I would add: and hang onto them well into the season before cutting bait if they don't break out. I dropped both Cobb and Wilson early on because I was too impatient.

[mjb03003]

Good fantasy leagues should have their prize structures split about 50/50 for regular season and playoffs.

The regular season is a 13 week season. The sample size is such that fluke events and disappearing studs are essentially removed from the equation, and the best teams almost always finish with the best seeds.

The playoffs is a 3 week, single elimination tournament. The sample size is tiny, and fluke events and disappearing studs decide who wins and who loses. The best teams routinely lose to the team who gets hot at the right time. It's very hard to dominate a regular season and have a team that is still producing at peak performance when the money is on the line.

I think if your league pays out for the first, second, and third place finishers in the playoffs, it should also pay out for the first, second, and third place finishers in the regular season.

[klove42]

GottaGetTheWin, on 17 December 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Rather B. Winning, on 17 December 2012 - 12:20 PM, said:

3.  Pay very close attention to Mathew Berry and then do the opposite.

100% true.  He's the worst.

I also learned that in PPR leagues it is more valuable to have good consistent WRs than QBs.  In all my PPR leagues the teams that are in have some combo of AJ Green, Calvin, Roddy, Welker, etc...while they throw out guys like Beanie Wells and Danny Woodhead at RB.

That is the best fantasy advice anyone can ever give. Do the opposite of Berry