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Injury Prone-nessIs it real?


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#1 green

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 01:22 PM

Obviously most injuries happen to non-injury prone players simply because there's more of them, but I was wondering how many of the guys considered injury prone end up hurt versus escaping injury.

This list is just off the top of my head, other people should contribute to it, or maybe I have people badly misclassified.

QB
Injury Prone QBs that got hurt:
Vick, Big Ben, RG3? (due to running for RG3)

Injury Prone QBs that escaped:
Romo, Cam/Luck/Wilson?  - not really injury prone, but they run a lot.

RB
Injury Prone RBs that got hurt:
Forte, Mathews, DMC, Beanie Wells, Bradshaw, Murray, FJax, McGahee, Starks, Donald Brown, JStew

Injury Prone RBs that escaped:
Gore, Greene, Reggie Bush,  Spiller?  Considered injury prone at one time, but not really coming into this year.
Kevin Smith - but only cause he lost his job.  I'm thinking more about starters here.

WR
Injury Prone WRs that got hurt:
Harvin, Amendola, Maclin (only 1 game though)

Injury Prone WRs that escaped:
Andre Johnson, Denarious Moore, Marques Colston, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice


TE
Injury Prone TEs that got hurt
Hernandez, Gronk?

Injury Prone TEs that escaped
Finley



Preliminary data from this one year sample suggest maybe we should worry about injury-proneness for RBs, but not so much for other positions.  Except count on Vick to get hurt.
Do other people see the same thing as I do?  Or is my off the top of my head memory leading to a very biased results?


NonInjury Prone RBs that got hurt:
McCoy, MJD, Benson

NonInjury Prone RBs that didn't get hurt:
Foster, Rice, Chris Johnson, Lynch, Peterson, Charles, SJax, Richardson, Turner, Sproles, BJGE, Ridley, Martin, Leshoure, Morris
[I don't consider Peterson and Charles injury prone outside of the question of whether they were actually recovered from the ACL tear or not]

Edited by green, 17 December 2012 - 01:25 PM.


#2 Jaw

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Posted 17 December 2012 - 03:40 PM

Jordy Nelson needs to be on there somewhere and although they didn't miss time Stafford and Trent Richardson seem to have been banged up all season...tons more thats just from my team

#3 fredth3cat

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 01:11 AM

I bought into the idea that injury-proneness should be ignored during the draft.

Ended up with some combination of DMC, Murray, Harvin, and Hernandez in all of my leagues.

Needless to say, this has not been a good season for me. Some guys just get hurt, man.

#4 mjk356

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 01:45 AM

Vick, DMC, and Ryan Mathews are pretty much 50/50 to miss half of the season.  By far the three most injury prone guys in the league, but Amendola is catching up to them.

Most of the other guys on that list I'm willing to draft, even if there's a chance they could miss some games.  With running backs, it's basically a crap shoot if they stay healthy, no matter how healthy they've been in the past.

#5 fredth3cat

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 09:42 AM

Quote

An orthopedic surgeon tells the Union-Tribune San Diego that someone breaking both their collarbones in a four-month span is less likely than getting struck by lightning.

:lol: Can't wait to hear next year's arguments that Mathews has had fluky injuries and isn't actually injury-prone.

#6 tron34

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 09:52 AM

View Postfredth3cat, on 24 December 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

Quote

An orthopedic surgeon tells the Union-Tribune San Diego that someone breaking both their collarbones in a four-month span is less likely than getting struck by lightning.

:lol: Can't wait to hear next year's arguments that Mathews has had fluky injuries and isn't actually injury-prone.

Lol, yeah, so much for all that talk about "shutting people up" this year.
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#7 predator_05

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:19 AM

The real injury prone guys are the ones with recurring injuries, i.e. something that results from a injury that may not have fully healed. Anyone can get injured but the ones to be wary of are the guys that are more likely to 're-injure' something. That's the way i look at injuries when assessing players to draft. This doesn't guarantee anything, but you could avoid some obvious busts.

Jahvid Best's concussions, Gates foot injuries, Bradshaw's ankle injury (which eventually needed surgery), Nicks knee and ankle injuries. These guys fight off the wear and tear from old injuries time and again.

Mathews is just a pussy. The guy could probably play through some of his injuries, but doesn't.

View Postfredth3cat, on 24 December 2012 - 01:11 AM, said:

I bought into the idea that injury-proneness should be ignored during the draft.

Ended up with some combination of DMC, Murray, Harvin, and Hernandez in all of my leagues.

Needless to say, this has not been a good season for me. Some guys just get hurt, man.

Some injuries are total flukes though.

Could you predict that Hernandez would have his ankle stepped on by Edelman in the middle of a game? That's about as fluky an injury as you will ever see.

Harvin's ankle sprain is a new injury as well, he doesn't have a history of these.

I would say DMC's injuries are flukey as well, all separate injuries and none recurring. That's just rotten luck.

Edited by predator_05, 24 December 2012 - 10:20 AM.

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#8 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 01:42 PM

I think if there is a consistent track record of injuries then you have to take that into account and label him an injury prone guy.  

Ex. DMC, Mathews, Murray, Nicks.  There are all guys who have missed significant time with injuries.  Now while I get more concerned about a guy with muscle or ligament damage than a broken bone it all has to be taken into account.   By the same token if any of these players went and played say 2 seasons with no injury problems then I don't think I would consider him injury prone.

A great example of this is Matt Stafford.  Last year his draft stock fell because he was considered injury prone.  This year it will again, but not because of injury concerns.  He has played two very healthy years, no reason to think that won't change.  

In the end, no matter what sport there is always an injury concern.  Any of your players can be taken out as easily as any other player.  Tom Brady isn't considered injury prone but don't tell that to the millions of teams he torpedoed in 07.  Charles never had injury concerns until Week 2 last year.  

If there is any sport that it's "easier" to label someone truly injury prone I would say it's baseball.
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#9 FFF

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 01:33 AM

I wish someone would moneyball this, but I suck at excel and don't have the data... If anyone could create a spreadsheet with rows of players and columns of each game of the players' career with a presence/absence value for injury occurance, I think you could do a bootstrap test where you remove a portion of the data to see how well the remaining portion predicts the missing portion, i.e., "does knowledge of injury occurrence from one portion of a player's games played allow for prediction of injury occurrence in the remaining games played?"

Edited by FFF, 26 December 2012 - 01:34 AM.


#10 fredth3cat

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 03:19 PM

View Postpredator_05, on 24 December 2012 - 10:19 AM, said:

Some injuries are total flukes though.

Could you predict that Hernandez would have his ankle stepped on by Edelman in the middle of a game? That's about as fluky an injury as you will ever see.

Harvin's ankle sprain is a new injury as well, he doesn't have a history of these.

I would say DMC's injuries are flukey as well, all separate injuries and none recurring. That's just rotten luck.

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that some players are just brittle.

Bob Sanders is the prime example of this: foot injuries, high ankle sprain, knee injuries, torn left bicep, torn right bicep.

#11 The Phenom

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 08:14 PM

The last 3 years that I have played I tried not to draft injury prone players (McFadden, Matthews namely in 2012), but the talent pool is so shalow at RB that I took a chance. As far as your question there are some players that get nicked up for whatever reason like the two running backs aforementioned. As fantasy football enthusiasts we love to reap the rewards of our draft picks, but there are just some guys who have injury issues and baggage attached to them, so injury prone - ness can certainly be applied to certain players who are more susceptible to the injury bug. And as predator stated, sometimes fluke injuries happen as well and you obviously cannot predict who they will happen to and when they will occur.

#12 Major

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 10:45 PM

Yes there is such a thing as injury-prone-ness. It's a combination of one's bone density as well as the toughness. But sometimes being tough doesn't always work, and simply put, the players physical presence; the strength of the bone, isn't suited for the game. Bradshaw comes to mind. Tough SOB, but his injury prone-ness is out of his control. DMC/Mathews/Murray are injury prone and can't be trusted to last a whole season; it's just not in their genes. There's always that person that wants to be a wise guy and go for one of those high-upside players late in the draft as an RB2 hoping to get the steal of the draft but 9 times out of 10 they learn the hard way with those decisions.

#13 owenmills

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 09:50 AM

Bone, ligament, tendon strength isn't created equal. It doesn't always take a freak injury for players to get banged up and miss games. You can see trends emerging with certain guys. You can also see trends emerging in regards to recovery time. So yes it's real. It just comes down to deciding whether the risk is worth taking on for the potential reward.

Edited by owenmills, 27 December 2012 - 09:52 AM.