569 replies to this topic

[LyondellBasell]

I was so high on this guy a year ago. He made the whole world mad. Still, I like the idea of getting him on my teams this year b/c i think where you should be able to get him, the return could be huge. A real difference maker. The question is, where is a good place to target him?

I'm also gonna assume he does his annual beating up of spring training pitchers, which will once again drive the hype train a bit.

[tucker26]

I think he makes a gradual improvements over the next year or two and end up what we were expecting slowly in a 2-3 years.

BUT if he doesn't then call him Ian Stewart, call him Travis Snider. I hope not though.

[SoundMaster]

I recall reading that his BABIP was horrific in '12, which could rebound next season.    But how much of that was a result of pressing as his slump continued?
At the end of the day, he's hits a lot of grounders which may continue to suppress power.    

With that said, I'll likely own him in a few redraft leagues next year - but not as my starting 1B.

[baltimore_boy]

He's still worth taking to me and is someone I am going to be targeting. His ADP is going to drop as anyone that owned him last year is never going to even think about touching him after what he did. His potential is still huge and he should improve from last year (it'd be tough to get worse).

[parrothead]

LyondellBasell, on 18 December 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

I was so high on this guy a year ago. He made the whole world mad. Still, I like the idea of getting him on my teams this year b/c i think where you should be able to get him, the return could be huge. A real difference maker. The question is, where is a good place to target him?

I'm also gonna assume he does his annual beating up of spring training pitchers, which will once again drive the hype train a bit.

For sure post-hype sleeper.  I like him, especially at a value.  I just think by March, like another poster said above, the hype train will be rolling a bit.  I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.  

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

[FouLLine]

parrothead said:

I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.  

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon?  I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

[FouLLine]

SoundMaster, on 18 December 2012 - 12:50 PM, said:

I recall reading that his BABIP was horrific in '12, which could rebound next season. But how much of that was a result of pressing as his slump continued?
At the end of the day, he's hits a lot of grounders which may continue to suppress power.

With that said, I'll likely own him in a few redraft leagues next year - but not as my starting 1B.

It was a combination of bad luck and the league having him figured out.  The shift killed his BA but he made impressive adjustments for a such a young player.  For him to.be as young as he is and struggle as much as he did and not get sent down speaks volumes of his level of talent and what the organization thinks of him.For as bad as a season as he had there were plenty of times where it looked like he was going to break out.

[parrothead]

FouLLine, on 19 December 2012 - 08:49 AM, said:

parrothead said:

I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.  

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon?  I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

Yes Alex Gordon, thank you...I was actually listening to something and heard Eric Gordon's name mentioned, must be one of those subliminal things like the Coke Ads at the movies.

[FouLLine]

parrothead, on 19 December 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

FouLLine, on 19 December 2012 - 08:49 AM, said:

parrothead said:

I remember Eric Gordon, he stunk for multiple years before people finally gave up, then he took off.  

I think in auction league, 260 mixed 12-teamer, he is a $15-20 guy.

You mean Alex Gordon?  I think you got your NBA and MLB confused.

Yes Alex Gordon, thank you...I was actually listening to something and heard Eric Gordon's name mentioned, must be one of those subliminal things like the Coke Ads at the movies.

Lol yeah I hear you happens to me all the time.  I'll tell a buddy a whole story about a guy and they are looking all confused at the end before Im like Oh did I say Edwin Jackson I meant Vincent Jackson.

[TrueShoe]

Big time bounce back?...

[jsp2014]

his highest OPS for any single month was .778. his highest slugging was .438.

for a first baseman.

wow.

[jsp2014]

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 01:19 AM.

[TrueShoe]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

[tucker26]

TrueShoe, on 21 December 2012 - 02:26 AM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

Well both are good projections. If you can pay for the bad poor Hosmer projection and get the good one, great. But if you pay for the good one and get the poor one then disappointment will come again. It's all about value on risky picks.

[jsp2014]

TrueShoe, on 21 December 2012 - 02:26 AM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Or he could be .300 25 HR 80 R 100 RBI and 15 SB....

didn't say he couldn't, but I'm not banking on such tremendous improvement. I think it's more likely he takes a few small steps forward and stabilizes as a solid 1B. last year was just such an epic disaster that we can't just pretend it didn't happen.

it says a lot that he couldn't even muster 1 good month. even in players' disaster seasons, they usually can scrap together a decent month.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 11:01 AM.

[baltimore_boy]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

[jsp2014]

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

[moeron22]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 05:05 PM, said:

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

How many round 10-12  guys have you "banked" on in the past? Usually by then I've drafted the core of my starting lineup and start looking for value picks, like Hosmer. And if you get a 3rd or 4th round talent in the 10-12 rounds, you're doing pretty good for yourself.

[jsp2014]

moeron22, on 21 December 2012 - 06:01 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 05:05 PM, said:

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 02:33 PM, said:

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

Hosmer still has a lot of potential though. When you are drafting in 120-150 range, I am looking for upside guys that could be great. Hosmer fits that. He could disappoint, but when you are at that point in the draft, it is worth taking a chance on someone like Hosmer.

I can understand that. problem is, I want my 10th-12th round pick to be a guy I can bank on. not a guy whom I might want to drop before May 1. I don't think the potential is so great that it justifies the relatively large chance that he harms my team. I'd say it's more like top 30 or 40 hitter potential. not quite top 10 or even top 25 potential. jmo.

How many round 10-12  guys have you "banked" on in the past? Usually by then I've drafted the core of my starting lineup and start looking for value picks, like Hosmer. And if you get a 3rd or 4th round talent in the 10-12 rounds, you're doing pretty good for yourself.

10th-12th picks are pretty much right in the middle of constructing your starting lineup. not like we're just filling our team out at that point.

obviously if he hits his upside, you did well. that's not the question.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[Dissection]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said:

going to go out and say it and you all can bump this in July if he's raking:

people are going to take him in the 120-150th pick range and even there he will be a disappointment.

.275, 17 HR, 15 SB, 70 R, 75 RBI

pretty sure I'm going to want nothing to do with him come March.

I really like this projection,just what I had in mind.He'll be around those number with some good months and some bad ones.If I get him somehow and he starts really good,I'll be selling quickly.People going with .300/25/90 will be dissapointed.