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Mike Minor 2013 OutlookMinor


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285 replies to this topic

#1 96mnc

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 02:38 PM

Anyone think his second half performance is a harbinger of things to come?

#2 jsp2014

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 02:50 PM

he is going to be a trendy SP and I'm probably not going to own him. his "improvement" was BABIP fueled (2 months under .200), and he was not above average in any of the 3 skills (K, BB, GB). he is a flyball pitcher and that's going to make him prone to implosions and generally lead to an inflated ERA. I bet people will conveniently gloss over those BABIPs when they're pimping him as the next great Braves SP.

he can improve, and I'd own him, but I just know that he's going to be a trendy breakout SP pick and will be overvalued to me. the o-swing%, swinging strike %, contact% don't portent much improvement in Ks. scouts liked him and he had some crazy K numbers in 2010 but right now, that is all just wishcasting as opposed to looking at underlying skills that are already there.

looking at the Bill James projection, it projects a big spike in K% that leads to a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. I think that's close to his upside, and it's back end fantasy SP material.

Edited by jsp2014, 18 December 2012 - 02:51 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#3 parrothead

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 11:45 PM

I own him for $2 in a 130 cap league, I dont have great pitching, he might be a guy I keep and would hope to land 4-5 better starters or guys I have ranked higher.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#4 2ndCitySox

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:04 AM

So...only 3 posts?
I figured minor would get more chatter
All-Icon Team:
C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
3B- Wade Boggs
CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

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RP- Eck

#5 The Ringer

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:22 AM

View Postjsp2014, on 18 December 2012 - 02:50 PM, said:

he is going to be a trendy SP and I'm probably not going to own him. his "improvement" was BABIP fueled (2 months under .200), and he was not above average in any of the 3 skills (K, BB, GB). he is a flyball pitcher and that's going to make him prone to implosions and generally lead to an inflated ERA. I bet people will conveniently gloss over those BABIPs when they're pimping him as the next great Braves SP.

he can improve, and I'd own him, but I just know that he's going to be a trendy breakout SP pick and will be overvalued to me. the o-swing%, swinging strike %, contact% don't portent much improvement in Ks. scouts liked him and he had some crazy K numbers in 2010 but right now, that is all just wishcasting as opposed to looking at underlying skills that are already there.

looking at the Bill James projection, it projects a big spike in K% that leads to a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. I think that's close to his upside, and it's back end fantasy SP material.

There is also a lot in his favor as well.

He is a flyball pitcher, which means that we don't truly have a handle on where his BABIP will fall because we don't have enough data.  Flyballs land in gloves a lot more, so flyball guys generally have very favorable BABIP.

His strand rate was also very poor last year at 70.6%, suggesting that whatever luck factors played into his BABIP were undone by guys scoring at a higher rate than they should have.  The average is 72% for middle of the road pitchers and given that Minor had a very solid BB/9 and a decent K/9, he probably could have been a little better in that area.

The increased control looked like a guy turning the corner.

He had a really tough time with righties earlier in the year and they were killing him.  So much so that there was talk of moving him to the pen.  He changed his foot positioning on the mound and tried to become more deceptive in his delivery midseason.  It seems to have paid off well.  Fangraphs also suggest that the changes were helping him with location as well. http://www.fangraphs...r-improvements/

I'm high on him.  He has solid stuff.  He has the pedigree and I love lefties that cut their walk rates and have excellent second halves in their first full seasons.

Guys will still see that 4.14 ERA and I think that will allow him to drop in some drafts. The trendy picks are usually the guys that only played part of the season and put up big numbers like Matt Harvey or Wily Peralta while I think a guy like Minor will drop a bit more in the draft and will be affordable on draft day as a backend fantasy starter.  You never know though.  It only takes one guy in your league to jump at those second half numbers.

#6 Cmilne23

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:42 AM

Mets and Marlins are going to have bottom 5 offenses so he has that going for him.  And the Phillies have a left heavy lineup with the middle of the order hitters.  He is in a great division to continue to blossom.  I will be targeting him again this season.  Hopefully he does not perform like Mike Minor Leaguer of the 1st half last year.

#7 yoda

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 08:22 AM

Minor's BB/9 went from 3.91 in the first half to 1.65.  Minor was also awful with runners to start the season but improved along the way: 56.2, 60, 70.6, 90.3, 73.4, 92.6 LOB%  If he can limit walks and hold runners from scoring then he has the potential to be a #2 or 3 starter.  Given his team, league, and division, I will be targeting him heavily.

Edited by yoda, 31 January 2013 - 08:22 AM.

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#8 klove42

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:29 PM

Minor gave up three homers today to the powerful Mets. I don't expect him to be trying his hardest against a division oponent a week before the season starts, but three homers is not good.
No Days Off

#9 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:36 PM

How's he been the rest of spring?  Just drafted him last night and expect him to put up SP2 or SP3 numbers.

#10 klove42

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:44 PM

View PostFantasyShmantasy, on 25 March 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

How's he been the rest of spring?  Just drafted him last night and expect him to put up SP2 or SP3 numbers.

I got him last night too. His era is around six 18Ks 14 Walks 4 homers (but three today).
No Days Off

#11 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 01:45 PM

View Postklove42, on 25 March 2013 - 01:44 PM, said:

View PostFantasyShmantasy, on 25 March 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

How's he been the rest of spring?  Just drafted him last night and expect him to put up SP2 or SP3 numbers.

I got him last night too. His era is around six 18Ks 14 Walks 4 homers (but three today).

Hmm okay, I guess we'll see how his first "real" start goes.

#12 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 12:15 AM

Has his first start tomorrow.  it obviously isn't the tell all to end all but I think how he comes out of the gate will make owners feel very comfortable or very worried.  How do you think his first start will go?

#13 yoda

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 12:35 AM

View PostGottaGetTheWin, on 05 April 2013 - 12:15 AM, said:

Has his first start tomorrow.  it obviously isn't the tell all to end all but I think how he comes out of the gate will make owners feel very comfortable or very worried.  How do you think his first start will go?

Minor likes pitching at home and the Cubs are pretty weak:
6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K and the W


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#14 Travis Burten

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 10:26 AM

7IP, 4H, 1ER, 0BB, 6 K's

#15 JFS171

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 02:02 PM

Minor owners should be encouraged by this: http://www.ajc.com/n...onfident/nXC9L/

He spent spring training working on a sinker, which likely explains the mediocre results and high BB rate.  But he scrapped it for his last tuneup against the Braves AA guys, and thre 4 scoreless.

We know most of the time that ST stats don't really matter, but it's encouraging to know the mediocre performance by one of your big sleepers was actually explained, even anecdotally, by something like this.

Unfortunately, I don't own Minor anywhere, but I'd feel pretty good about him if I did...

#16 KansasTrooper

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 08:12 PM

His overall line looks good so far tonight, but the Cubs have taken him to the warning track several times.  Minors stuff definitely isn't his best tonight.

#17 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 08:13 PM

The line is really nice. Maybe he struggles with higher caliber offenses, but it's a good game for him to gain some confidence and get loose.

#18 Kempimus Prime

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 08:30 PM

beast, could definitely see him being the best value of my draft

#19 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 08:48 PM

Back out to pitch the 8th. This will probably be it as he's now at 82 pitches.

#20 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 08:50 PM

Lead off single and now is pulled. Nice outing.




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