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2013 Devil's Advocate Thread


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#1 fredth3cat

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Posted 18 December 2012 - 11:52 PM

It happens every year -- some of the "safe" early-round picks turn into busts. Let's hear your worst arguments against players that are widely considered to be amongst the elite (I don't care about why you think Michael Turner will be a bust in 2013).

Let's keep positive outlooks to the player-specific threads. I just want to see potential reasons that players will bust.


LeSean McCoy- Bryce Brown is ending this season on the wrong note, but I think he'll turn into a headache for McCoy owners in 2013. McCoy will have a good year in PPR, but he'll have a handful of games where Brown steals 40 yards and a TD and prevents McCoy from having a huge game.

A.J. Green- Touchdowns can vary wildly year-to-year, and Andy Dalton is by no means a proven stud at this point. I also think another WR will emerge next year and steal some targets. Green will be the #2 WR in most drafts, but I think he'll disappoint a bit. I see him as more of a top-10 WR.

Jamaal Charles- Incredibly explosive, but I'm scared away by the three games this year where he averaged ~1 YPC or less. The Chiefs will lose Bowe next year and will likely start a rookie QB. This team is a mess, and I don't want anything to do with their players. Charles certainly has upside, but the risk is too great for me to take him in the first couple rounds.

RGIII- Sophomore slump, defenses adjusting to him, blah blah blah. Many are claiming that he's not just a running QB, he also has a great arm, so he'll be fine. Many said the same about Cam last year (sure, Cam is finishing strong, but he killed a lot of teams in the first half). RGIII has immense upside, but there are simply too many viable QBs for me to draft a risky one in the early rounds. RGIII will still finish top-10 at the very least, but he'll have a serious slump or two.

#2 NyMetsfan5

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 12:07 AM

Aj Green- Defenses will key even more on him without a legitimate offense threat on the Cinci Offense. No one is scared of Andrew Hawkins but hell defiantly still some targets plus the emergence of Mohammed Sanu and Gresham will take away even more looks. Also his touchdown numbers are a bit flukey and Andy Dalton is simply mediocre and hell continue to be for the rest of his carrer which will hinder Ajs production next season. Andy doesnt look for this guy in the red zone as much as he should and that will hurt him too. I can see some wrs surpassing him next year

Arian Foster- Doesnt seem to have the mojo he had from the seasons past. He is saved by his massive volume and great o line. Unfortunately i think the Texans loook to release Shuab more in that offense and that certainly will take away Fosters much needed touches to be effective. This isnr a guy that can survive on 15-18 touches a game and his yards per carrie is on the decline. Hell be a disappointment for those who draft him 2nd overall next year

T-Rich- people will be picking him in the mid-late first round. Very talented guy but that offense simply doesnt give him any opportunities. Weedens below average play will allow teams to stack the box on this guy and theres nothing T pain can do about it. If people pick him as their rb1 i can see them being disappointed for yet another year. Year 3 is the year for him.

Adrian Peterson-lol, Cant type that with a straight face

Note: these dont reflect my overall opinion, just trying to play advocate as stated
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#3 fredth3cat

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 12:17 AM

I definitely agree about Foster. Maybe I'm just skittish after the Steve Slaton fiasco, but I always have the feeling that he's going to end up in a timeshare and eventually lose the starting gig. His dwindling average on carries and catches also has me worried.

#4 Stingarov

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 07:35 AM

Good thread. Retrofitting some of my worst arguments in 2012 (not all elite guys):

Quote

Randall Cobb -- Too many miscues in the preseason. Graded very low due to mental mistakes or trying to do to much in preseason and last year. His moment is a year away. WRONG.

Rashad Jennings -- Will have value because he stepped in vs. some of the worst run defenses ever in the AFC south in 2010 and had 5 ypc. FAIL.

Jonathan Stewart -- Had stunning value in 2009 ergo if he's made the MAN, he'll go off. Because you know, Carolina's situation in 2009 was equivalent to today. And that offensive line is SO much better. And the Panthers are likely to just forget those massive contracts of others players and suddenly commit to just one guy. Awful.

I refuse to call James Jones rationales inaccurate. He's a mediocre talent who luckboxed his way toward value. And as usual he did the most when people expected the least.

As for 2013

Arian Foster: not as much mojo, Oline suddenly sucks balls on the right side, don't waste a keeper on him if you have a viable alternative. Alright even I disagree with that last line.

CJ Spiller - FJax is the locker room leader on offense, Chan Gailey has an outside chance to return, and yeah that's about it.

AJ Green - Dalton has shown so many chinks in his armor, and the Bengals are so uncommitted to competing for titles, that something has to give.

Alfred Morris - lacks breakaway speed to make him a "he can just have 5 carries and that's all he'll need to break one off" kind of threat, coupled with the fumbles that plagued him in college and have sort of crept up a bit towards the end here, and you have a poor argument against RG3's main backfield buddy.

TRich - They're getting rid of Brad Childress who is the first man in like 10 years that has made 3 guys potentially valuable spot starts in fantasy (or weekly starts even).

Aaron Rodgers -- came back to Earth after a phenomenal 17 game stretch there for a while in 2011 and before. Offensive line is a grease fire, but he holds the ball for forty bleeping seconds -- which can add fantasy value mind you (scrambling yards) but kills team rhythm -- before throwing it to receivers who cannot and will not be able to get open on their own within 4 seconds of the snap, excepting Randall Cobb.

Edited by Stingarov, 19 December 2012 - 07:40 AM.


#5 Stingarov

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 07:48 AM

Also, I can't believe I just devil's advocated 2 of my keepers. Talk about jinxing.

#6 cbe_88

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Posted 19 December 2012 - 12:54 PM

Charles - Anyone else NOT drafting Jamaal Charles next year? His massive blow-up potential will keep his ADP pretty steep, but he's way too streaky for me for as expensive as I think he'll be next year (inside the first two rounds)...no way he makes my roster. Not to mention he's on a team that's going absolutely downhill as a franchise. Probably no Bowe next year and I bet they'll still have crap QB play. And the playcalling is so sketchy, they abandon the run game way too easily, not even giving Charles a chance in some games. You gotta keep pounding with Charles regardless of whether it's fully working or not when the rest of your offense sucks. Charles breaking the big play is the only legitimate part of this offense and that makes me very nervous if defenses don't have to worry about anything else.

#7 FFninja

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 09:40 AM

I got crucified for posting this in the Doug Martin (bandwagon) thread:

View PostFFninja, on 19 December 2012 - 11:06 AM, said:

Doug Martin vs. Oak:
25 carries for 251 yards (10.0 ypc)

Doug Martin in 13 other games:
198 carries for 999 yards (4.0 ypc)

Anyone else feel like he's going to be way overdrafted next year?

I agree with cbe_88 on Charles. Just can't trust anyone on that offense (unless they make some serious moves - bring in a real coach, a QB, sign Bowe or Jennings, etc.). Tampa is not far off. Freeman got a legitimate WR1 this year but his comp % has dropped significantly. Not sure I trust Tampa to take a step forward next year.

Also, I know everyone whined that Cam Cameron did not get Rice the ball enough, but I remember targeting Ray Rice his 2nd year solely due to Cam Cameron being the OC. Unless they get a good OC in there to replace Cameron, I think Ray Rice's value takes a hit (along with everyone else on that team). Cameron did a good job getting Rice designed receptions. If he's relegated to simple runs up the gut and dump off passes in a more traditional offense, he's not going to be as effective. I'll be very interested to see where Cam Cameron goes in 2013...

#8 SilentSentinel

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 07:56 PM

I think Martin will be helped significantly by the return of Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks. I would consider them one of the best Guard tandems in the entire league. Don't forget that Nicks wasn't there when Martin had his epic game.

Really nervous about Arian Foster. It was nice having him this year, but he's honestly looked kind of... bad in the games I've watched. He's also not a part of the passing game like he used to be the last couple of years. If he ends up getting less touchdown than he did this year, he will be a disappointment.

Also not sure about Alfred Morris. He could be the next name on a list of backs that includes guys like Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary, RB's who had great rookie seasons under Shanahan and then fell off the map.
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#9 fredth3cat

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 08:24 PM

Bernard Pierce is at the very least a must-handcuff for Ray Rice owners next year. Rice's upside now appears capped, and a potential timeshare definitely scares me away from him as a top pick in standard scoring.