240 replies to this topic

[FouLLine]

Anyone who had Medlen last year on their team knows how dominate he was last year as a starter.

After Medlen's last year's performance he is sure to start the season in the rotation.  Which would be a great change for him as he's been an abused swing man in and out of the rotation his entire (yet still short lived) MLB career up until the middle of last season.

Now I know to expect his last year's numbers would just be one crazy pipe dream.  But with consistently being in the rotation the entire year and being 27 this season I think Medlen is poised for a great season in 2013.  I also think he will be had a solid bargain in fantasy drafts as well.

Medlen's last years #'s as a starter (including 1 playoff start):

Over 91 IPs 1.09 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 8.70 K/9.

Yeah I don't expect him to have a sub 2 ERA or a sub 1 WHIP or anything like that.  But it wouldn't be out of the question to look for him to produce something around his career numbers compounded over 34 starts.

Which would be a 2.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 7.89 K/9.  Sure chances are his ERA won't be sub 3, but you never know with how much he dominated last year in 2012.

[Thespis721]

It's not like the NL east line ups got that much better

[jsp2014]

it's going to be really, really interesting to see where his ADP falls. sometimes people are overly cautious about these types so it's no guarantee that he's going to be overvalued.

Edited by jsp2014, 20 December 2012 - 02:19 PM.

[LyondellBasell]

i expect him to get the same kinda buzz that Cory Luebke got in last years drafts, which was like round 11 or 12 in 12 teamers... in the 130s overall.

[FouLLine]

Who is the idiot who put Offseason outlook on the thread title?  Can we get that fixed please?  lol

[monkeyzonSteroids]

LyondellBasell, on 20 December 2012 - 03:55 PM, said:

i expect him to get the same kinda buzz that Cory Luebke got in last years drafts, which was like round 11 or 12 in 12 teamers... in the 130s overall.

I would think he would go much higher then Cory since he had better numbers and plays for a better team (leading to more W's)

[Jmadtown]

This dude won a lot of people championships last year(this guy). He'll be over-valued, me thinks. I wonder what round he'll go in...?

Edited by Jmadtown, 20 December 2012 - 11:16 PM.

[jsp2014]

LyondellBasell, on 20 December 2012 - 03:55 PM, said:

i expect him to get the same kinda buzz that Cory Luebke got in last years drafts, which was like round 11 or 12 in 12 teamers... in the 130s overall.

oh he's an easy pick in the 11th or 12th. I'll say almost no chance he lasts past the 100th pick, in any league.

[Jmadtown]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 12:19 AM, said:

LyondellBasell, on 20 December 2012 - 03:55 PM, said:

i expect him to get the same kinda buzz that Cory Luebke got in last years drafts, which was like round 11 or 12 in 12 teamers... in the 130s overall.

oh he's an easy pick in the 11th or 12th. I'll say almost no chance he lasts past the 100th pick, in any league.

For sure. 11 or 12 is a steal for the kind of talent that Medlen could give... I'm thinking he could go  even earlier than that.. depends on the pre season buzz. I for one am in love with the dude... At most an 8th round kind of love.  
But, I could be persuaded...

Edited by Jmadtown, 21 December 2012 - 11:27 AM.

[Gotham_Soldier]

I had him last year and would easily throw $10 on him (out of 260).  But I don't think I'd go much higher than that.  I think someone in my league will spend stupid money on him and he'll end up as an $18 SP.

[LyondellBasell]

i guess 11 or 12 was pretty wishful... he went in round 6 in a CBS mock for H2H, 12 team

Edited by LyondellBasell, 21 December 2012 - 04:52 PM.

[Jmadtown]

LyondellBasell, on 21 December 2012 - 04:52 PM, said:

i guess 11 or 12 was pretty wishful... he went in round 6 in a CBS mock for H2H, 12 team

Hmm. That's pretty low. I usually put all my eggs in one basket and draft my first pitcher in the 7th. It was Madbum last year, and it will probably be Kris this year.

[baltimore_boy]

Medlen will likely be overvalued when it's draft time. Whether it is by all the sites out there or by the one guy in your league that had him last year and doesn't want to miss the chance to get him again. I feel like he will be reached for in a lot of leagues this year, particularly by the people that owned him last year. He had one of the greatest runs ever by a pitcher, people won't want to risk not getting him by waiting a few rounds.

Edited by baltimore_boy, 21 December 2012 - 10:18 PM.

[jsp2014]

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

Medlen will likely be overvalued when it's draft time. Whether it is by all the sites out there or by the one guy in your league that had him last year and doesn't want to miss the chance to get him again. I feel like he will be reached for in a lot of leagues this year, particularly by the people that owned him last year. He had one of the greatest runs ever by a pitcher, people won't want to risk not getting him by waiting a few rounds.

where would you draft him out of curiosity? the nice thing about this time of year is we are unbiased by ADP and hype, so I'm interested in peoples' opinions of where he should get drafted.

[baltimore_boy]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 11:49 PM, said:

baltimore_boy, on 21 December 2012 - 10:18 PM, said:

Medlen will likely be overvalued when it's draft time. Whether it is by all the sites out there or by the one guy in your league that had him last year and doesn't want to miss the chance to get him again. I feel like he will be reached for in a lot of leagues this year, particularly by the people that owned him last year. He had one of the greatest runs ever by a pitcher, people won't want to risk not getting him by waiting a few rounds.

where would you draft him out of curiosity? the nice thing about this time of year is we are unbiased by ADP and hype, so I'm interested in peoples' opinions of where he should get drafted.

I'd draft him with the second wave of pitching. I'm in an auction league, so I don't know much about projecting ADP. It's a $275 cap NL only, so I'd probably spend about $15 on him. That would make him a number 2 starter on a fantasy team.

[klove42]

I think he will go anywhere from round 5 to 8. I'm just afraid of the hype really building on him when drafts get closer. I don't know of many drafts happening now, but now would probably be the time to get him.

[Dissection]

I would pick him in 8th not before that.(H2H,14 teams)
In my opinion,he'll go in 5th or 6th cause you always have a couple of guys willing to take big risk on some players.He could be great again but I think his ERA will be around 3.20-3.50 in best case scenario.

[Dodger Blue 88]

He will be this year's Beachy/Luebke pick. The guys everyone calls a sleeper even though everyone will be over drafting him. There will be atleast one person in all leagues that take him many rounds before most would take him.

[tron34]

Bill James has him projected out at 14-7 with an ERA of 2.94 for '13

[jsp2014]

Dodger Blue 88, on 23 December 2012 - 04:08 AM, said:

He will be this year's Beachy/Luebke pick. The guys everyone calls a sleeper even though everyone will be over drafting him. There will be atleast one person in all leagues that take him many rounds before most would take him.

I fail to see the connection. these guys both went down with TJ last year. Medlen has had TJ already.

Medlen had a half season as the #1 pitcher. Beachy and Luebke did nothing close to that.

and Beachy was also a complete monster before going under the knife, so it's not as if he was a disappointment. probably justified his ADP just from those 100 or so innings.