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Jeff Samardzija 2013 OutlookSharknado coming to wreak havoc on your ratios!


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#1 baltimore_boy

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 02:41 PM

The Shark is one of my favorite players for this year. He flew under the radar last year because he played for the Cubs, but he put together a solid 3.81 ERA, 1.22 Whip, and 180 K's. The wins will likely be lacking once again, but other than that, he has the potential to be a great contributor. Not sure where his ADP falls, but he should provide decent value. Someone to target in drafts.
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#2 dzemens

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 03:16 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 20 December 2012 - 02:41 PM, said:

The Shark is one of my favorite players for this year. He flew under the radar last year because he played for the Cubs, but he put together a solid 3.81 ERA, 1.22 Whip, and 180 K's. The wins will likely be lacking once again, but other than that, he has the potential to be a great contributor. Not sure where his ADP falls, but he should provide decent value. Someone to target in drafts.

They were talking about him on MLB Radio today and the feeling seemed to be that a lot of people are still concerned with his elbow.
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#3 TrueShoe

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:54 PM

I really like Jeff in 2013. The elbow injury will only better his ADP.
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#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:04 PM

A 3.81 average and 1.22 whip isn't that special. The strikeouts are of course great.  With not a ton of win upside, he seems a tad overrated to me.
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#5 parrothead

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:06 PM

I think he has 200K stuff.  Overall, I actually like what the Cubs have done with their staff.  Signed Edwin Jackson, and another move I liked was Villanueva.  I think he could be a nice $1 pitcher this spring who will be above average strikeout pitcher.
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#6 sportsfreak2744

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:13 PM

What elbow injury??

#7 jsp2014

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:26 PM

not seeing anything about an elbow injury. anyone have a link?

I like that he finished strong. he had that one brutal month. not sure what happened. maybe lost his mechanics or release point. but I love the way he finished that season.

he reminds of Josh Johnson. he's a big dude, throws gas, keeps the ball on the ground, and goes deep into games. he has all the tools to be an ace.
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#8 AnonymousRob

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:32 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 20 December 2012 - 05:26 PM, said:

not seeing anything about an elbow injury. anyone have a link?

I like that he finished strong. he had that one brutal month. not sure what happened. maybe lost his mechanics or release point. but I love the way he finished that season.

he reminds of Josh Johnson. he's a big dude, throws gas, keeps the ball on the ground, and goes deep into games. he has all the tools to be an ace.

During his brutal month he tried a curveball (or maybe it was a slider). It didn't work well. He dumped it and went back to his good stats.
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#9 baltimore_boy

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:50 PM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 20 December 2012 - 05:04 PM, said:

A 3.81 average and 1.22 whip isn't that special. The strikeouts are of course great.  With not a ton of win upside, he seems a tad overrated to me.

If you take out his one month in June where he tried a new pitch and was just horrible, then his numbers are more appealing. He had a 10.8 ERA in June and gave up 8 and 9 runs in 2 different starts. Take those 5 starts that month out and his numbers get better. The ERA probably drops to the 3.3 - 3.4 range, which is very decent for where he can be drafted. As long as he doesn't bring back that pitch, he should be in for a solid year.

Edited by baltimore_boy, 20 December 2012 - 05:51 PM.

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#10 tucker26

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 08:53 AM

Shark was dominate finishing up last year. To me, he has potential to be elite this year. Of course lack of wins could hurt.

Reminds me of Bumgarner when he's on.

Edited by tucker26, 21 December 2012 - 08:54 AM.

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#11 lospantalones

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 01:56 PM

I don't believe Shark had an elbow injury, possibly mixing him up with Garza. I do believe he was shut down early though.
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#12 MidwestCrucible

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 10:40 AM

As a Chicagoland Cubs fan, I can tell you Shark NEVER had any kind of elbow issue. You guys are talking about Matt Garza. Shark was shut down because it was his first year as a starter, had to keep him on a innings limit.

It would be very wise to keep an eye on Jeff. This kid is still throwing 96 MPH in the 7th inning of games. Nasty secondary pitches. Mentally tough. He has all the tools to be a true ace. What gets him into trouble is losing control and walking guys but he's improved on that. If he continues in that direction, look out.
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#13 Cmilne23

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 12:01 PM

He has just a filthy splitter.  A lot of guys have dumped the splitter due to fear of elbow problems, that has been a common theme over the years.  Pitching coaching are starting to instructed players to throw more cutters and less splitters to reduce elbow stress.  Not sure Samardizja is at the point in his career yet where he has to dump that pitch yet.  A lot of the homers he gave up last year were on hanging splitters, if he ever harnessed that pitch he could be a top 15 starter in baseball.  That is probably the next step for him in his MLB progression.  Cubs did nothing to improve that atrocious lineup though.  Is all they added Nate Schierholtz?  My god did Theo take the whole offseason off?  Doubt he sees more than 11 wins.  Which will probably hinder his overall ranking, but in terms of ERA, WHIP, K's I like the guys potential.  Only downside is the Astros did leave the Central :(

#14 ipstaff

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:04 PM

The limited W potential given the Cubs' largely pop-free lineup isn't helpful, but this is the kind of guy who I like to look at in my mid tier pitching choices: good K guys who had high-3 ERAs with solid opportunities to improve on their ratios.  Better still if they have solid defenders behind them - and the Cubs have quietly built a pretty good defensive team, especially with Barney, Stewart, Rizzo, in the If (and with Castro showing great potential even if needing to harness his arm a bit) and DeJesus and Schierholtz in the OF.  Not loving Castillo as a game manager yet but still turning into a solid D team.

#15 iAugust

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:56 PM

He is the first Cubs pitcher I would take this year over Garza or E-Jax. He has filthy stuff but the Cubs offense will certainly limit him compared to other pitchers with similar skillsets.

Just a few interesting stats that I didn't realize until recently while doing some research on Samardzija:

-Average fastball velocity was 95.1 MPH, 2nd in the MLB among SP last year after Price (Actually went UP after coming out of the bullpen, incredibly rare. Sustainable? Who knows but it's impressive)
-Swinging strike % was 12.1 last year, 5th best in MLB among SP
-First pitch strike percentage went from career 56% (near the bottom of the league) to 60.9% (Just above league average)
-O-Swing% was 34.2 last year, 9th best among MLB SP (Gets people to chase pitches better than almost anyone)

All very impressive underlying traits that show the Shark is the real deal, and transitioned very well from the bullpen to a starter. Very mature young pitcher

Edited by iAugust, 24 January 2013 - 06:57 PM.


#16 South Jersey Bombers

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 08:03 AM

i love that other people are high on him, im hoping for big things!
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#17 bigbluecrew56

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:04 PM

My only concern with the Shark just like with Harvey is putrid offense and bullpen. Other then that should seem like an easy bet for 200K's

#18 ballfan4141

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:38 PM

I got samardzija and harvey. kind of compare them two for their strikeouts.

#19 Orion Braun

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:03 PM

View Postbigbluecrew56, on 07 March 2013 - 06:04 PM, said:

My only concern with the Shark just like with Harvey is putrid offense and bullpen. Other then that should seem like an easy bet for 200K's

Eh, Marmol is supposed to be gone before the season starts. Hopefully that helps. Other than that, wins are too flukey to really base much of a decision on them. He should be good for 12W, 9 K/9, mid-3 ERA, mid-1.2WHIP. I'm targeting him as my SP3/4 in every league in the 10th or later in 10team mixed leagues.
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#20 jb_power

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:24 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 07 March 2013 - 07:03 PM, said:

View Postbigbluecrew56, on 07 March 2013 - 06:04 PM, said:

My only concern with the Shark just like with Harvey is putrid offense and bullpen. Other then that should seem like an easy bet for 200K's

Eh, Marmol is supposed to be gone before the season starts. Hopefully that helps. Other than that, wins are too flukey to really base much of a decision on them. He should be good for 12W, 9 K/9, mid-3 ERA, mid-1.2WHIP. I'm targeting him as my SP3/4 in every league in the 10th or later in 10team mixed leagues.

How can Marmol's leaving help?  The Cubs tried to replace Marmol with everyone and their brother last year and the alternatives were worse.  I'm not a Marmol fan and not trying to defend him but the Cubbies bullpen was awful in 2012.




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