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Billy Butler 2013 Outlook


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#1 FouLLine

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:37 PM

The more consistent, more proven, but still less sexy version of Eric Hosmer.

I have a feeling that Butler still gets drafted right around Hosmer, maybe even later than.

Butler has been in the league for what seems like forever but he is just entering his 27 age season. Last year we started to see a lot of his doubles turn into home runs. I have a feeling that trend is only going to continue to progress in a positive direction.

.300 30 HR and 100 RBI seem like an easy call... Butler is 27 with 6 years in the bigs and is a career .300 hitter. I have a feeling he'll be a draft day bargin.

#2 PRoSPx

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:45 PM

B.B. King's my boy. But I am honestly looking elsewhere for 1B.

#3 crazy47larry

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 12:58 AM

Him and David Ortiz stuck out like sore thumbs in drafts last year and I can only hope to get him again this year. He has absolutely no flaws in his game fantasy-wise yet because he isn't sexy by any means he is often overlooked. We will see what his ADP is but if it is anything like before it won't match his true value, making him someone to target again.
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#4 jsp2014

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 01:10 AM

which one of these is not like the other?

8.9
8.2
11.9
8.4
10.4
19.9

those are Billy Butler's HR/FB by year (final one is 2012)

he hit a staggering 47% groundballs last year.

his power output last year screams of fluke. just because a player had his best year in his prime doesn't mean he can automatically repeat or improve. this is the beauty of advanced metrics so we can see just where the improvement came from. no need to look at baseball card stats and extrapolate.

if he had shown a change in approach, putting more balls in the air, then I'd buy into it a lot more. but no, he had a career low FB%.

I can believe 23-25 HR which is more than every other year except 2012. some of that improvement in HR/FB is real and something we were expecting. but doubling his true talent HR/FB in one offseason just defies all logic.

oh, and no chance he goes anywhere near Hosmer in drafts. Hosmer's best month in OPS last year was 50 points lower than Butler's career OPS. Hosmer is a mid-late round flyer.

early projection: .310, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R

liked him in the 10th last year but not someone I will look to take in round 4 or 5 this year.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 01:14 AM.

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#5 TrueShoe

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 02:34 AM

His overall increase in GBs will effect his HR/FB rates. he isn't hitting as many FBs, but he's still getting his pitch and hitting it out at a good rate.
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#6 WahooManiac

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 06:44 AM

I think his previous "unsexiness" was in large part due to his DH only eligibility. I would assume that gets corrected, but is still take .300/25/100 in the fifth. Not the super value from last yr, but there just aren't many 300 guys left these days
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#7 jsp2014

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 11:04 AM

I think his previous "unsexiness" was in large part due to his DH only eligibility. I would assume that gets corrected, but is still take .300/25/100 in the fifth. Not the super value from last yr, but there just aren't many 300 guys left these days



you might be right that it is 4th/5th round value. I haven't yet embarked on my gorilla math.
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#8 FouLLine

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 11:07 AM

I think his previous "unsexiness" was in large part due to his DH only eligibility. I would assume that gets corrected, but is still take .300/25/100 in the fifth. Not the super value from last yr, but there just aren't many 300 guys left these days


Well that and the fact that he had Nick Markakis snydrome up until last year. A good young player who everyone was expecting these big breakout seasons earlier in his career, but they never came. Instead they got steady improvement with solid all around production year in and year out.

Which realistically what more can you ask for.

#9 crazy47larry

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 06:20 AM

Yeah I remember last year everyone jumped off leading to his ADP dropping even though his performance improved. It really was the perfect storm for value. Now everyone is probably going to jump back on the bandwagon and not be settled with another year of incremental improvement.

Edited by crazy47larry, 22 December 2012 - 06:20 AM.

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#10 archibjd

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 11:16 AM

Billy Butler average home run distance for 2012 was 406 feet (MLB average under 400 feet) and his swinging strike is under 8%. He hit 29 homers last year but didn't have a month over 6 homers but on the flip side he didn't have a month under 4 homers (so was very consistent and didn't benefit from an insane hot streak which shows the 29 homers is not really that flukey). He's entering his prime and the KC team is getting better (too bad they traded Myers though).

I don't really care about the other saber statistics, if you multiply 4 homers a month * 6 you get a minimum of 24 homers and the guy has a ton of power and eye-hand cordination entering his prime. Do you really see a guy that can hit homers a long way and is a pure hitter going into prolonged homer slumps now going forward into his prime especially considering the other factors of a better KC team and how consistent he was last year? I think averaging 5 homers a month is very doable for Butler and you get a 300+ average with tons of hits (meaning the weight of that 300 average is more). He's a very underrated player. I told my buddy last year at the beginning of the season he is a mini Miggy and would hit 30 homers.

Edited by archibjd, 22 December 2012 - 11:24 AM.


#11 Travis Burten

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 04:58 PM

which one of these is not like the other?

8.9
8.2
11.9
8.4
10.4
19.9

those are Billy Butler's HR/FB by year (final one is 2012)

he hit a staggering 47% groundballs last year.

his power output last year screams of fluke. just because a player had his best year in his prime doesn't mean he can automatically repeat or improve. this is the beauty of advanced metrics so we can see just where the improvement came from. no need to look at baseball card stats and extrapolate.

if he had shown a change in approach, putting more balls in the air, then I'd buy into it a lot more. but no, he had a career low FB%.

I can believe 23-25 HR which is more than every other year except 2012. some of that improvement in HR/FB is real and something we were expecting. but doubling his true talent HR/FB in one offseason just defies all logic.

oh, and no chance he goes anywhere near Hosmer in drafts. Hosmer's best month in OPS last year was 50 points lower than Butler's career OPS. Hosmer is a mid-late round flyer.

early projection: .310, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R

liked him in the 10th last year but not someone I will look to take in round 4 or 5 this year.


Lol.

Billy Butlers FB-GB-LD rates in the last 5 years:

2008: GB = 48.8%, FB = 34.6%, LD = 16.5%
2009: GB = 47.3%, FB= 34.6%, LD = 18.1%
2010: GB = 47.7%, FB = 34.0%, LD = 18.3%
2011: GB= 45.6%, FB = 35.8%, LD = 18.7%
2012: GB = 47.3%, FB = 28.8%, LD = 23.9%


Where did all those flyballs go? Oh right, he just hit more line drives. This guy was touted 7 years ago to be a BEAST hitter. Crappy fielder, but who cares about that. He's also super consistent....5 of his 6 months he hit over .300. he hit atleast 4 HR in every month, and he got atleast 15 RBI's in each month.

He's a career .300 hitter, 6 years under his belt and it seems he has finally tapped into that power well as he taps into his prime years. Oh yeah, Hosmer and Moustakas are only going to get better. He's an absolute beast pick in Dynasty/Keeper Leagues and should be a force for the next 5 years. He's a perennial .300-30-100 guy to me and one of these years he's gonna put up a .320-35-130....

Edited by Travis Burten, 25 January 2013 - 04:59 PM.


#12 Slatykamora

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 07:01 PM

2011 he had 44 Doubles and 19 Home runs=63 Extra base hits

Last year he had 32 Doubles, a Triple and 29 Home runs=62 Extra base hits,

Not hard to fathom that he turned his doubles into home runs here guys..

#13 ballfan4141

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 08:58 PM

the guy is great. he is still like 25. he is really valuable in league where you have to qualify for DH and it isnt a utility spot. wouldnt have no problem having him as my starting 1B with complete confidence.

#14 SoundMaster

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:48 PM

which one of these is not like the other?

8.9
8.2
11.9
8.4
10.4
19.9

those are Billy Butler's HR/FB by year (final one is 2012)

he hit a staggering 47% groundballs last year.

his power output last year screams of fluke. just because a player had his best year in his prime doesn't mean he can automatically repeat or improve. this is the beauty of advanced metrics so we can see just where the improvement came from. no need to look at baseball card stats and extrapolate.

if he had shown a change in approach, putting more balls in the air, then I'd buy into it a lot more. but no, he had a career low FB%.

I can believe 23-25 HR which is more than every other year except 2012. some of that improvement in HR/FB is real and something we were expecting. but doubling his true talent HR/FB in one offseason just defies all logic.

oh, and no chance he goes anywhere near Hosmer in drafts. Hosmer's best month in OPS last year was 50 points lower than Butler's career OPS. Hosmer is a mid-late round flyer.

early projection: .310, 24 HR, 100 RBI, 75 R

liked him in the 10th last year but not someone I will look to take in round 4 or 5 this year.


I think this post is right on the money....perhaps with few more runs scored.

The numbers indeed scream that regression is likely. How many bats see ~20% of their FBs leave the yard?

Draft him for 25 jacks and solid avg and RBI. I'm all over that.

#15 Slatykamora

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:24 PM

I think this post is right on the money....perhaps with few more runs scored.

The numbers indeed scream that regression is likely. How many bats see ~20% of their FBs leave the yard?

Draft him for 25 jacks and solid avg and RBI. I'm all over that.


First his Home run spike seem to have more of correlation with his Doubles than his Fly balls that were caught.

To a point yes, but his ground ball rate has stayed a constant and if you look at the splits.

2010 Home-9 Away-6
2011 Home-9 Away-10
2012 Home-11 Away-18

I'm not sure if it means anything other than showing that his spike is coming on the road at various ballparks and not his home ballpark.

He had 9 "just out" Home runs last year. Most power hitters will have at least 4-5 of those, just based on the volume alone. So I would say 25 Home runs next year expectation is fair, but I would not be surprised at all if he gets 30.

Edited by Slatykamora, 25 January 2013 - 11:30 PM.


#16 parrothead

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:56 AM

The more consistent, more proven, but still less sexy version of Eric Hosmer.

I have a feeling that Butler still gets drafted right around Hosmer, maybe even later than.

Butler has been in the league for what seems like forever but he is just entering his 27 age season. Last year we started to see a lot of his doubles turn into home runs. I have a feeling that trend is only going to continue to progress in a positive direction.

.300 30 HR and 100 RBI seem like an easy call... Butler is 27 with 6 years in the bigs and is a career .300 hitter. I have a feeling he'll be a draft day bargin.

I think in a lot of leagues that play with the pretty standard 20-game limit over the last couple years he has been DH only, and I know for myself and other fantasy owners who Ive talked to on the situation, there is always a hesitation to not fill your DH too quick, especially in an auction league because it can limit who you can call and bid on.

So because of that over the last few years, I think he has been unwanted by many for that reason, but in general in part because of the DH thing and in part because he is in KC in part because there are questions about power consistency there for a few years I think he has been undervalued and slightly underrated. This year however, you might be right that he will go around or maybe behind Hosmer.

He will probably not be on the market in my league as I think he will be a keeper but if he is out there, definetly go from call out guy to tie up someones DH spot to now being 1st base eligible with his 20 games, could be a value find there.
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#17 jsp2014

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:29 AM

2011 he had 44 Doubles and 19 Home runs=63 Extra base hits

Last year he had 32 Doubles, a Triple and 29 Home runs=62 Extra base hits,

Not hard to fathom that he turned his doubles into home runs here guys..



the question is whether or not that was a fluke.

there is definitely a high degree of confirmation bias. he is a guy we've expected to eventually develop HR power. it happened so we naturally want to believe it is sustainable. but with these things, we always need to refer back to our old friend regression analysis. and that dictates that he probably will hit HRs somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 output.
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#18 Slatykamora

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:01 AM


2011 he had 44 Doubles and 19 Home runs=63 Extra base hits

Last year he had 32 Doubles, a Triple and 29 Home runs=62 Extra base hits,

Not hard to fathom that he turned his doubles into home runs here guys..



the question is whether or not that was a fluke.

there is definitely a high degree of confirmation bias. he is a guy we've expected to eventually develop HR power. it happened so we naturally want to believe it is sustainable. but with these things, we always need to refer back to our old friend regression analysis. and that dictates that he probably will hit HRs somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 output.


Which is my expectation..25 home runs...with 30 upside.. But I can't ignore that he happened to have his lowest double output since 2008...while having his highest home run output.. We all should Expect 60 Extra Base hits like he has been doing for 4 years straight.

Maybe it falls back to 24-25..

#19 FouLLine

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 09:07 PM



2011 he had 44 Doubles and 19 Home runs=63 Extra base hits

Last year he had 32 Doubles, a Triple and 29 Home runs=62 Extra base hits,

Not hard to fathom that he turned his doubles into home runs here guys..



the question is whether or not that was a fluke.

there is definitely a high degree of confirmation bias. he is a guy we've expected to eventually develop HR power. it happened so we naturally want to believe it is sustainable. but with these things, we always need to refer back to our old friend regression analysis. and that dictates that he probably will hit HRs somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 output.


Which is my expectation..25 home runs...with 30 upside.. But I can't ignore that he happened to have his lowest double output since 2008...while having his highest home run output.. We all should Expect 60 Extra Base hits like he has been doing for 4 years straight.

Maybe it falls back to 24-25..

Less doubles because he was getting those off the wall doubles out for HRs. I fully expect improvement from last year. He may not top his 2012 totals but he will be very close to it, with upside of 35 HR potential. Billy Butler was far more aggressive last season at the plate. Hence the increase in HRs and batting average even though his BBs were down and Ks were up.

#20 jsp2014

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 09:19 PM

Billy Butler was far more aggressive last season at the plate. Hence the increase in HRs and batting average even though his BBs were down and Ks were up.


lol. not sure why people make stuff up when they could just look up the numbers and see that it's false.
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