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Brandon Moss 2013 OutlookWhat do we make of last season?


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#1 AnonymousRob

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:48 PM

Last year he hit 291. 358 obp. 48 runs. 52 rbi's. 21 home runs. In only 296 plate appearances.

We can't expect another 359 babip nor a 306 ISO...but what can we expect? I'm really at a loss on where to project him this year.
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#2 TrueShoe

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 04:50 PM

Small sample... High K's... Solid walks, great slugging.

I doubt he keeps the ratios close.  Like you said, a .359 BABIP for him to only hit .291?  I'm sure he'll jack 25+ but his BA and OBP will be much much lower next year.
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#3 parrothead

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Posted 20 December 2012 - 05:49 PM

His value I guess depends on how deep you league is going:
AL Only?  Yes he has some real value.  12-team mixed 5x5?  Will he get enough ABs to be a contributor in runs and RBIs?  I remember when our league went to 5x probably 10 years ago from a 4x, with runs being the additional stat and the guys it really hurt IMO are guys like Moss, players who have good power and are in a platoon situation, where they dont get enough AB to get the runs.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#4 FouLLine

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 02:37 PM

View Postparrothead, on 20 December 2012 - 05:49 PM, said:

His value I guess depends on how deep you league is going:
AL Only?  Yes he has some real value.  12-team mixed 5x5?  Will he get enough ABs to be a contributor in runs and RBIs?  I remember when our league went to 5x probably 10 years ago from a 4x, with runs being the additional stat and the guys it really hurt IMO are guys like Moss, players who have good power and are in a platoon situation, where they dont get enough AB to get the runs.

Yeah deeper leagues he's worth a look.  Standard 12 team leagues he could be a good pick up if he starts out hot.

#5 jsp2014

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 05:35 PM

he absolutely won me some titles last year. always have a soft spot for guys like this but I'll be objective.

love his batted ball profile. line drives and fly balls. not too many popups. that's how you make up for a terrible K%. just like Chris Davis. not going to be a plus AVG guy but not quite a Mark Reynolds.

with that said, no way he repeats a 26% HR/FB. he's got man power but not like that and not at O.Co. fortunately, with a ridiculous 21 HR in 84 games, he can regress and still be a solid value.

if they let him face lefties, and he gets 600 PAs, I think he can definitely put up a .270, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 75 R line.

Chris Davis is actually a pretty good comp for him. they have very similar profiles. lefties who have improved vs. LHP, strike out too often, big-time power but make solid contact when they're not whiffing.

he doesn't have quite the raw power as Davis and plays in a much, much worse park and in a division with much worse parks overall. but he's also going to go a lot cheaper.

I like him a lot for cheap late round power. if you're in a daily league, you can always swap him out when they're against a lefty.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 05:37 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#6 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure
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#7 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 02:12 PM

View PostNick Mitchell, on 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure

Reddick is a fair comparison.  But I think Moss has more upside and I'm not so sure about a lower average for sure as Reddick only hit .241 last year while Moss hit .291, unless you're saying a lower than .291 average which in that case I certainly suspect Moss to hit under .280 over the course of a full season.

#8 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:09 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

View PostNick Mitchell, on 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure

Reddick is a fair comparison.  But I think Moss has more upside and I'm not so sure about a lower average for sure as Reddick only hit .241 last year while Moss hit .291, unless you're saying a lower than .291 average which in that case I certainly suspect Moss to hit under .280 over the course of a full season.

How does a 29 year old Moss have more upside?

A 29 year old who had his breakout in a partial season fueled by great HR/FB and BABIP luck, I've seem this movie before and it doesn't end well. Given his K/BB and contact rates I'd ballpark his average at .250, HR/RBI/R would be dependent on his AB's. Given his lack of contact skills and his likely to plummet HR totals I doubt he reaches last years amount of At Bats.

He was a nice story last year, but that's about it.

#9 jsp2014

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:25 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 27 December 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

View PostNick Mitchell, on 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure

Reddick is a fair comparison.  But I think Moss has more upside and I'm not so sure about a lower average for sure as Reddick only hit .241 last year while Moss hit .291, unless you're saying a lower than .291 average which in that case I certainly suspect Moss to hit under .280 over the course of a full season.

How does a 29 year old Moss have more upside?

A 29 year old who had his breakout in a partial season fueled by great HR/FB and BABIP luck, I've seem this movie before and it doesn't end well. Given his K/BB and contact rates I'd ballpark his average at .250, HR/RBI/R would be dependent on his AB's. Given his lack of contact skills and his likely to plummet HR totals I doubt he reaches last years amount of At Bats.

He was a nice story last year, but that's about it.


We've seen plenty of late blooming power hitters have a good 3-4 year run starting in their late 20s. Travis Hafner comes to mind though I think he broke out a little earlier. Papi took a long while to become who he is now as well. Jason Giambi too I think? I admit most of the ones I can think of were PED users/suspects though.

And the BABIP wasn't lucky. Look at that batted ball profile. It is ideal for a high BABIP. Whether or not he can repeat that is another question but his BABIP was well-earned by a lot of solid contact.

The HR/FB will come down but it was in the stratosphere, so significant regression could still leave him top 25 in MLB.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#10 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 11:29 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 27 December 2012 - 11:25 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 27 December 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

View PostNick Mitchell, on 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure

Reddick is a fair comparison.  But I think Moss has more upside and I'm not so sure about a lower average for sure as Reddick only hit .241 last year while Moss hit .291, unless you're saying a lower than .291 average which in that case I certainly suspect Moss to hit under .280 over the course of a full season.

How does a 29 year old Moss have more upside?

A 29 year old who had his breakout in a partial season fueled by great HR/FB and BABIP luck, I've seem this movie before and it doesn't end well. Given his K/BB and contact rates I'd ballpark his average at .250, HR/RBI/R would be dependent on his AB's. Given his lack of contact skills and his likely to plummet HR totals I doubt he reaches last years amount of At Bats.

He was a nice story last year, but that's about it.


We've seen plenty of late blooming power hitters have a good 3-4 year run starting in their late 20s. Travis Hafner comes to mind though I think he broke out a little earlier. Papi took a long while to become who he is now as well. Jason Giambi too I think? I admit most of the ones I can think of were PED users/suspects though.

And the BABIP wasn't lucky. Look at that batted ball profile. It is ideal for a high BABIP. Whether or not he can repeat that is another question but his BABIP was well-earned by a lot of solid contact.

The HR/FB will come down but it was in the stratosphere, so significant regression could still leave him top 25 in MLB.

He had a similiar batted ball profile in '09 and hit .236, just sayin.

#11 Dodger Blue 88

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 03:32 AM

29 year old that never did much. Think he does worse per AB next year. Type of guy I won't have in any league. Others will take him well before I do.

#12 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 06:44 AM

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 02:12 PM, said:

View PostNick Mitchell, on 21 December 2012 - 07:16 PM, said:

i kind of can see him putting up numbers similar to what reddick did over the course of the entire year in 2012 if he gets the playing time next season. like someone said, 25+ knocks but a lower avg for sure

Reddick is a fair comparison.  But I think Moss has more upside and I'm not so sure about a lower average for sure as Reddick only hit .241 last year while Moss hit .291, unless you're saying a lower than .291 average which in that case I certainly suspect Moss to hit under .280 over the course of a full season.

Aye, I should have clarified- I meant I expect Moss' average to dip a lot from the .291 he was at, not to plummet necessarily to .241 where Reddick wound up.

But it very well could be that low, in my opinion. Reddick saw more PA and therefore had more AB by default. His BA was as high as .270+ at one point. maybe even .280 early in the year when he was red-hot (Reddick I mean). He plummeted as low as .241 to end the year, in my opinion, because he completely wore down. If Moss wasn't in a platoon or didn't come on strong and out of nowhere like he does, maybe he hits only .250, if even. Reddick played daily to be fair (when comparing their BA and considering.how many PA each player got).

If I'm predicting a triple-slash for Moss, I would have to know what the hell to expect in terms of AB and playing time. I think he should start at least 5 out of every 7 games. But with Carter and a very cloudy outfield, I can't say that for sure, so I'll just try to predict his BA, HR, and RBI total (as I don't think he'll score a ton of runs honestly, and SB is an afterthought with a guy like Brandon Moss obviously)....

15-20 HR, 60-65 RBI, .260-.275 (probably loser to .260 though)

Honestly, he is a guy I'd stash on my bench and hope to see get off to a hot start, and then look to deal him. Unless he gets everyday plate appearances and makes something of them early, he isn't someone I would want to own/keep. If he starts out hot in a platoon, I could handle moving him, especially if I can land him in my draft for under $3 (or just $1 or $2 preferably). At the worst, if I couldn't move him but didn't want to cut him, I'm sure he could be handy as a guy who is eligible at both 1B and in the OF and can be spotted into your lineup for the right match-up. I owned Moss twice last year, and only cut him both times because it looked though as if he was going to be losing a lot of playing time. Frankly, I just don't see how there's enough for him to be utilized and see more than 350 PA this year, and I don't see him repeating the gaudy numbers in limited playing time for a second straight season.

So now that I think about it, I would not be surprised one bit if he hit .241 this upcoming season. It wouldn't be like it's coming out of nowhere or anything.

And just for what it's worth, I think Reddick has more upside of the two right now and just as a whole, age aside or otherwise. Not that I hate Moss, but I think his season was more of the flukey variety or will look that way and be more evident 3 seasons on from now.
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#13 PRoSPx

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:02 AM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 27 December 2012 - 11:09 PM, said:

How does a 29 year old Moss have more upside?

A 29 year old who had his breakout in a partial season fueled by great HR/FB and BABIP luck, I've seem this movie before and it doesn't end well. Given his K/BB and contact rates I'd ballpark his average at .250, HR/RBI/R would be dependent on his AB's. Given his lack of contact skills and his likely to plummet HR totals I doubt he reaches last years amount of At Bats.

He was a nice story last year, but that's about it.

Because age isn't everything when considering upside.  Moss and Reddick have very similar minor league career numbers.  But when focusing solely on AAA Moss' numbers are far better than Reddick's.  

Moss is more in line for a regression as he just had a better triple slash than Reddick.  I'm sure Reddick's numbers improve, but when the dust settles I think Moss will be a touch better than Reddick.  As they both pretty much produced numbers slightly less than what they've been doing in AAA over the past 2 years, which is reasonable.

#14 ballfan4141

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 07:46 AM

why are the athletics using seth smith as a DH. why not use that for moss and carter so they both can play everyday.

#15 AnonymousRob

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 04:36 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 25 January 2013 - 07:46 AM, said:

why are the athletics using seth smith as a DH. why not use that for moss and carter so they both can play everyday.

I've heard nothing about an official lineup. Even if it did come out right now, these lineups are not set in stone. Chris Carter has yet to earn every day playing time. Even if Seth does get a lot of playing time, he'd only DH against righties. Moss should play most games as long as he continues to hit.

I expect Seth Smith to be a bench bat and not the everyday DH. They still have to rotate Crisp, Young, Cespedes, and Reddick.
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#16 parrothead

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 01:27 PM

View PostAnonymousRob, on 25 January 2013 - 04:36 PM, said:

View Postballfan4141, on 25 January 2013 - 07:46 AM, said:

why are the athletics using seth smith as a DH. why not use that for moss and carter so they both can play everyday.

I've heard nothing about an official lineup. Even if it did come out right now, these lineups are not set in stone. Chris Carter has yet to earn every day playing time. Even if Seth does get a lot of playing time, he'd only DH against righties. Moss should play most games as long as he continues to hit.

I expect Seth Smith to be a bench bat and not the everyday DH. They still have to rotate Crisp, Young, Cespedes, and Reddick.
Remember this is Moneyball.  The A's feel they have found another inexpensive way to get production out of spots without spending tens of millions of dollars to do it, you take two flawed players (strong on one side weak on the other) and combine them into a strong position:

1B: Carter RH and Moss LH - In LESS THAN 500AB these two combined for 37HR and 91RBI.
DH Smith and Gomes - combined 32HR and 99RBI.  

How much would a 1B and DH cost you that go 30HR and 90RBI versus how much it cost the A's?  

Moneyball II - The Platoon

Good for small market teams, bat for fantasy owners in standard sized leagues.

Edited by parrothead, 27 January 2013 - 01:27 PM.

Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#17 AnonymousRob

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Posted 27 January 2013 - 07:07 PM

View Postparrothead, on 27 January 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:


Good for small market teams, bat for fantasy owners in standard sized leagues.
Unless you're in a daily league. I agree with your point, though. Some great value in Oakland if you can play the platoon.
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#18 parrothead

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Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:10 AM

View PostAnonymousRob, on 27 January 2013 - 07:07 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 27 January 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:


Good for small market teams, bat for fantasy owners in standard sized leagues.
Unless you're in a daily league. I agree with your point, though. Some great value in Oakland if you can play the platoon.
You are right daily league you can play the matchups just like they do, I was thinking more roto.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#19 Garrett W.

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 04:32 PM

Can't help but be reminded of LaHair when looking at Moss' numbers.

Certainly that isn't a bad thing, and I may take a flier if he starts hot or with a stretch in hitter's parks. But I think your upside is .250-.260 with 25 HR and OF elig.
10-team keeper

C Devin Mesoraco
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Anthony Rendon
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Giancarlo Stanton
OF Billy Hamilton
OF Evan Gattis
Util Justin Morneau

Bench: C Devin Mesoraco

DL: SS Troy Tulowitzki

SP: Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Sonny Gray, Homer Bailey, Alex Wood, Chris Archer
RP: David Robertson, Hector Rondon, Jenrry Mejia, Santiago Casilla, Jake Petricka

#20 parrothead

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 06:21 PM

View PostGarrett W., on 30 January 2013 - 04:32 PM, said:

Can't help but be reminded of LaHair when looking at Moss' numbers.

Certainly that isn't a bad thing, and I may take a flier if he starts hot or with a stretch in hitter's parks. But I think your upside is .250-.260 with 25 HR and OF elig.
If your in a league with runs, part time guys even if they bomb and give you "normal full season HR" are just a liability because they score like 30 less runs than you need them to and sometimes the RBI are issue as well.  .
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about




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