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Jay Bruce 2013 OutlookCan he take his game to the next level?


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#1 FouLLine

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 02:44 PM

Jay Bruce was once pegged as the next big thing #1 prospect.  He has been more than servicable ever since.  But we have seen a few guys leap over him in rankings that weren't regarded nearly as high in the minors (CarGo, McCutchen, etc.)

Will this finally be the year he puts it together and goes off for 50?  I hope so but realistically we should we be looking for in 2013?

#2 AnonymousRob

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:14 PM

He might break out but I wouldn't count on it happening. If you draft him I'd count on him for exactly what he's been thus far - an incredibly streaky player whose cold streaks will leave you pulling your hair out but whose hot streaks will leave you dancing in the streets.

Count on 30ish home runs and 90ish rbi's and you should be a happy owner. That kind of production is an asset to any team. Anything more is gravy. If you miss him in the draft simply wait for a cold streak and buy him from a frustrated owner.
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#3 phizzics

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 03:26 PM

I think we've seen who Bruce really is, although there might be some extra home runs in his future. All hitters are streaky, but JB is STREAKY :P . When you draft him you're getting Superman, but you're also getting Clark Kent (and occasionally you'll think you've got Lois Lane).

His 2011 and 2012 results were remarkably similar so 2013 seems predictable. With just a bit more power some of those doubles (35 last year) will go out, and his HR number will climb, but the 150+ K's aren't going away. All you can hope is that the droughts will be shorter and the hot streaks will happen 5 times a year instead of 4. For a 25/26 year old, it's not unreasonable to expect incremental improvements, but I'd be cautious about drafting him with the hope that he'll suddenly become a consistent force on your roster.

FWIW, I always target him and have reached to make sure I get him. This year will be no different.

#4 jsp2014

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 04:56 PM

View Postphizzics, on 21 December 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

I think we've seen who Bruce really is, although there might be some extra home runs in his future. All hitters are streaky, but JB is STREAKY :P . When you draft him you're getting Superman, but you're also getting Clark Kent (and occasionally you'll think you've got Lois Lane).

His 2011 and 2012 results were remarkably similar so 2013 seems predictable. With just a bit more power some of those doubles (35 last year) will go out, and his HR number will climb, but the 150+ K's aren't going away. All you can hope is that the droughts will be shorter and the hot streaks will happen 5 times a year instead of 4. For a 25/26 year old, it's not unreasonable to expect incremental improvements, but I'd be cautious about drafting him with the hope that he'll suddenly become a consistent force on your roster.

FWIW, I always target him and have reached to make sure I get him. This year will be no different.


I agree. and I suspect his ADP/auction price will basically be priced for a repeat of 2011/2012 type numbers. he's fairly low risk, hasn't had many injuries (the wrist in 2009 is the only I can think of), and I'd say there's still a chance he has THAT YEAR where he puts it all together and goes .280/45/120. everything is there: park, lineup, age, health, experience.

he drives me nuts in-season but just like you said, the final season numbers have been consistent.

Edited by jsp2014, 21 December 2012 - 04:57 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#5 Slatykamora

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 10:11 PM

Don't think I could stomach him in a H2H. But he will be Roto gold with the power numbers... Some will try to Min/max his value by benching him on his cold streaks. Sometimes that does work too.

Me,

I'll just set him in my lineup and forget, and be happy..

...and enjoy watching this thread panic/complain during those cold streaks...

#6 baltimore_boy

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Posted 21 December 2012 - 10:15 PM

Bruce is what he is. Extremely streaky, carries you when he is hot, buries you when he is cold. You just have to stick with him and the numbers will be there. He's consistent but inconsistent, if that makes any sense.
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#7 crazy47larry

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 06:07 AM

I could see him breaking out this year and I might target him because of it. I can't support it with anything it is just a hunch I get. For the record I have never owned Bruce (at least when he was worth drafting) so I am not really biased with my expectations. He is still young and his counting numbers have crept up each year, maybe thats the reason?

#8 damana

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 09:16 PM

View Postcrazy47larry, on 22 December 2012 - 06:07 AM, said:

I could see him breaking out this year and I might target him because of it. I can't support it with anything it is just a hunch I get. For the record I have never owned Bruce (at least when he was worth drafting) so I am not really biased with my expectations. He is still young and his counting numbers have crept up each year, maybe thats the reason?

I am in the same position as you.  Bruce just made it back into our draft pool and I will be targetting him.  I have tempered expectations after reading up on the kid, However with his skill set and situation, I could see him putting up some gaudy numbers in the next few years.  I hope to have him when that happens!
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#9 mevins31

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 02:02 PM

.270/35/95/7

Steady but no "peak"
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#10 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 03:49 PM

bruce has little increase in runs, homeruns and rbi. however he still is young. younger than most realize. the average didnt improve. he finished up hitting good. I think bruce is what he is.

wouldnt mind the average where it is at if he can get the 100+ rbi and 40 HRs.

#11 FearTheBeard

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 06:37 PM

Jay Bruce isn't a guy I ran after and try to draft, but I always try to get him on my team throughout the season.

Here's the deal - if you draft Bruce you know what he is, and even if you do - when he stacks up two or three 2-40's, 4-50 with 20-25 Ks your gonna be willing to trade him for lower than he's worth. You may think you won't, but you start listening to offers. Then you'll watch him hit during one of those swoons and you'll think - 'There is NO WAY he's gonna get out of this'.

Redraft owners that have had Bruce know this all to well, the numbers will be there but it's a really rocky road and very few owners will stick it through if they are getting somewhat respectable offers during his slumps.

#12 SFG91

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 07:33 PM

If i could find a way to know when to sit him and when to play him, I'd draft him really early ... that's not gonna happen though. We need some Jay Bruce formula that will tell us when he's gonna crap all over our teams

#13 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 09:12 PM

View PostSFG91, on 17 January 2013 - 07:33 PM, said:

If i could find a way to know when to sit him and when to play him, I'd draft him really early ... that's not gonna happen though. We need some Jay Bruce formula that will tell us when he's gonna crap all over our teams

exactly....sometimes when you think he starting to hit a streak.....you put him in and doesnt and think he wont again then does.

#14 Ned Ryerson

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 11:51 AM

is the Jay bird gonna step up to the elite level this year?

#15 umphrey

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 12:29 PM

His HRs have gone up for the 4th straight year, but I just want to see some consistency

#16 ipstaff

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 12:37 PM

View Postumphrey, on 15 March 2013 - 12:29 PM, said:

His HRs have gone up for the 4th straight year, but I just want to see some consistency

You have seen consistency from him.  He is consistently inconsistent.  It is who he is.  Asking for something else from him after this many seasons of the same thing... well, that's just not something you should reasonably expect.

There are going to be years where Bruce gets his BA up over .260, and in those years he's going to provide tremendous value.  There may also be a year here or there where he hits under .240, and in that year he's going to earn just a bit less than his keep.

In the rest of the years, you're going to get exactly what you pay for over a 162 game schedule - 30 HR, 95 RBI, 85 R, and a few SB thrown in, with a BA that doesn't help you but doesn't kill you, either.

#17 WhiteSoxFan4Life

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 02:10 PM

I had to check the dates of the posts to make sure this wasn't the same thread I read last year on this guy.  Or the year before.  Or the year before......
C:  Brian McCann
1B: Albert Pujols
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Util:  Abraham Almonte
Bench:  Colby Rasmus, Marcus Semien,  Ryan Goins, Logan Morrison

SP:  John Lester,  Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Roenis Elias
RP: Jim Johnson, Joba Chamberlain, Jerome Williams
Bench: Johan Santana, Taijuan Walker, Suk-min Yoon, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz

6man keeper 12 AL Only H2H points  league

#18 parrothead

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 02:22 PM

I like Bruce (Im a roto not h2h I know he is frustrating in that format) but in general from what I read, ADP and in my main league, he is drastically overvalued.  The guy is essentially a 2-category guy with around average runs below average steals and close to liability batting average.  Ive got him in the Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham tier and he is being drafted in the Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton type tier.

Case in point in my league, the guy went for $32 last year and the guy is keeping him as one of his keepers.
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#19 ipstaff

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 02:33 PM

View Postparrothead, on 15 March 2013 - 02:22 PM, said:

I like Bruce (Im a roto not h2h I know he is frustrating in that format) but in general from what I read, ADP and in my main league, he is drastically overvalued.  The guy is essentially a 2-category guy with around average runs below average steals and close to liability batting average.  Ive got him in the Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham tier and he is being drafted in the Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton type tier.

Case in point in my league, the guy went for $32 last year and the guy is keeping him as one of his keepers.

Well, Pence has never hit more than 25 HR in any season, and he totally crapped the bed in his 59 games in SF (.219 BA, .671 OPS), so I'd put Bruce well above the Pence spot.

Willingham, if he can do what he did last year again, I think is being well undervalued right now.  But he's 34 this season, so you'd expect some decline risk, where Bruce is turning 26, and so should be on his way up.

Meanwhile, on the other end, Cespedes brings you more speed and BA at the expense of HR, and Upton is being valued as 2010/2012 J-Up, rather than 2009/2011 J-Up (which may mean he's being criminally undervalued, if he keeps up the freaky even/odd pattern).

So I'm not sure he's drastically overvalued so much as you've pointed out a few other guys who are being undervalued (Willingham and J-Up).

#20 parrothead

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 04:20 PM

View Postipstaff, on 15 March 2013 - 02:33 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 15 March 2013 - 02:22 PM, said:

I like Bruce (Im a roto not h2h I know he is frustrating in that format) but in general from what I read, ADP and in my main league, he is drastically overvalued.  The guy is essentially a 2-category guy with around average runs below average steals and close to liability batting average.  Ive got him in the Hunter Pence, Josh Willingham tier and he is being drafted in the Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton type tier.

Case in point in my league, the guy went for $32 last year and the guy is keeping him as one of his keepers.

Well, Pence has never hit more than 25 HR in any season, and he totally crapped the bed in his 59 games in SF (.219 BA, .671 OPS), so I'd put Bruce well above the Pence spot.

Willingham, if he can do what he did last year again, I think is being well undervalued right now.  But he's 34 this season, so you'd expect some decline risk, where Bruce is turning 26, and so should be on his way up.

Meanwhile, on the other end, Cespedes brings you more speed and BA at the expense of HR, and Upton is being valued as 2010/2012 J-Up, rather than 2009/2011 J-Up (which may mean he's being criminally undervalued, if he keeps up the freaky even/odd pattern).

So I'm not sure he's drastically overvalued so much as you've pointed out a few other guys who are being undervalued (Willingham and J-Up).
I get it, Im just saying they are on the same tier and I think he is being drafted or bought at a higher tier, like you said could be a case of those guys being undervalued making it look like he is way overvalued.

Cespedes was hurt a bit and had less than 500 at bats, I could see him nearing 30HR with full season.  Guys like Nelson Cruz or Josh Reddick are also in that general vicinity in my rankings.

Like I said, I like Bruce, I wish it wasnt the case, but for whatever reason in our league, his price seems out of bounds.
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