180 replies to this topic

[LyondellBasell]

not much to be excited about. anyone? does anyone believe in this guys power coming back?

[budman]

Sure hope so.

[jsp2014]

anyone have any insight as to what happened last year? I didn't own him and wasn't following him at all. the shoulder surgery was 2 full years ago right?

[LyondellBasell]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 05:12 PM, said:

anyone have any insight as to what happened last year? I didn't own him and wasn't following him at all. the shoulder surgery was 2 full years ago right?

i owned him. he sucked. he was such a powerless dog. when they traded him to LA he was quoted saying the green monster robbed him of a buncha HR. then he went onto continue sucking in LA. he just fails to inspire any confidence in me. that said, if anyone is big on him, i'd love to know why b/c i'm thinking you may be able to get him in the third, which could provide a huge return if a resurgence does happen.

Edited by LyondellBasell, 21 December 2012 - 05:19 PM.

[cymbaline]

It is hard to be optimistic when examining his trends.  I realize he's a guy that might rebound but there's risk in taking him even in the 3rd round as he wasn't particularly close to being in the top 36 players last year.  I'd draft him if he fell out of the top 50 but aside from that, I'm letting somebody grab him.  OBP leaguers should move him down a notch.

Looking at his career (full seasons only since 2005), his 2012 was an utter fail.
K/BB, career worst
ISO, career worst
OBP, career worst
SA, career worst
O-Zone%, career high
F-Strike, career high

His collapse in BB's is almost astonishing.  He had 2 separate streaks of 100+ PA's without a walk.  This, from a guy who once drew 119 free passes in a year -- now reduced to 42 walks.  He went from being at an elite level of patience to Vladimir Guerrero in just a few years.  

Part of his BB% decline has to do with pitchers no longer fearing him as a long ball threat and justifiably so.  His 2012 total of 18 HRs means he was far less of a threat than, say, Scott Hairston.  It is possible throw Gonzalez a pitch over the plate, even down the middle, without paying the price these days.  In previous years that was a huge mistake.  Lastly, I don't have stats to back this up but watching Gonzalez for probably 500 PA's last year it was pretty rare to see him even approach the warning track on a deep fly.  He was struggling to hit the ball beyond 250 feet, much less out of the yard.  Most of what I saw was an opposite field singles approach with really no attempt to pull it.

There's still some bright spots.  Good lineup, change of scenery, declining ADP.  Should be good for 2 categories in 5x5 (BA & R) with upside in others.

Edited by cymbaline, 21 December 2012 - 06:25 PM.

[jsp2014]

cymbaline, on 21 December 2012 - 06:20 PM, said:

It is hard to be optimistic when examining his trends.  I realize he's a guy that might rebound but there's risk in taking him even in the 3rd round as he wasn't particularly close to being in the top 36 players last year.  I'd draft him if he fell out of the top 50 but aside from that, I'm letting somebody grab him.  OBP leaguers should move him down a notch.

Looking at his career (full seasons only since 2005), his 2012 was an utter fail.
K/BB, career worst
ISO, career worst
OBP, career worst
SA, career worst
O-Zone%, career high
F-Strike, career high

His collapse in BB's is almost astonishing.  He had 2 separate streaks of 100+ PA's without a walk.  This, from a guy who once drew 119 free passes in a year -- now reduced to 42 walks.  He went from being at an elite level of patience to Vladimir Guerrero in just a few years.  

Part of his BB% decline has to do with pitchers no longer fearing him as a long ball threat and justifiably so.  His 2012 total of 18 HRs means he was far less of a threat than, say, Scott Hairston.  It is possible throw Gonzalez a pitch over the plate, even down the middle, without paying the price these days.  In previous years that was a huge mistake.  Lastly, I don't have stats to back this up but watching Gonzalez for probably 500 PA's last year it was pretty rare to see him even approach the warning track on a deep fly.  He was struggling to hit the ball beyond 250 feet, much less out of the yard.  Most of what I saw was an opposite field singles approach with really no attempt to pull it.

There's still some bright spots.  Good lineup, change of scenery, declining ADP.  Should be good for 2 categories in 5x5 (BA & R) with upside in others.

I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

[Slatykamora]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 06:50 PM, said:

I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

Somewhat, yes. Other half may be because he isnt as feared a power hitter anymore...

Last year with the Padres 13.4 Walk Rate

First year with the RSox  10.6

This past year? 6.1.

I would like to think he could get it back up to a 10 walk rate with the Dodgers. But that decline in power may also be a reason that Pitchers are challenging him more. If he can find his power, maybe he takes advantage of the more hittable pitches he will see in that lineup with the support he has around him...

Or maybe his power is really gone...

To point. He had 20 IBB in 2011, Last year? Only 5.

Folks, Pitchers are just not as scared of him anymore....

Edited by Slatykamora, 21 December 2012 - 08:00 PM.

[LyondellBasell]

in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

[phizzics]

LyondellBasell, on 21 December 2012 - 08:18 PM, said:

in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

[cymbaline]

jsp2014, on 21 December 2012 - 06:50 PM, said:

I think context is a big issue with the walks. all those walks had a lot to do with him being on the Padres.

Yes, for sure the suckitude of the Padres is part of the equation on is BB rate.  But he used to be a 40 HR hitter while being pitched around regularly.  That, by itself, instills some level of trepidation for the opposing pitcher.  18 HR's AND not drawing many walks doesn't really have the same impact.  This implies that hurlers are pitching to him a lot more because he isn't hitting it out anymore.

His O-Zone% spike would also indicate his approach has changed.  Up from 23.1% to 37.3%.  That's a big increase.

Bottom line is I do think there's a decent shot at a rebound but he comes with a lot uncertainty.  Even though I might regret it, I won't be drafting him at his ADP.

[budman]

Is he going to be keep his RF eligibility for this year? He played enough games there last year, so I would assume so just curious.

[mevins31]

I dont buy him as a first-round guy anymore. I would go with Justin Upton again over him if it comes down to it, and I had to deal upton last season because of his ineptness

[2ndCitySox]

LyondellBasell, on 21 December 2012 - 08:18 PM, said:

in the recent cbs analysts draft he went 17th overall. pretty shocking. ahead of the likes of cargo, pedroia, kinsler, wright, encarnacion.

It looks like CBS analysts draft picks are as good as their advice!

[Dodger Blue 88]

budman, on 05 February 2013 - 09:55 PM, said:

Is he going to be keep his RF eligibility for this year? He played enough games there last year, so I would assume so just curious.

Yes he will qualify at outfield this year. He will only play 1b for the Dodgers though so he wont qualify next year.

[Blood Brother]

Was thinking of moving this guy in the offseason, but I'm holding on and hoping for a rebound. Not sure what the hell happened this past year. He was a completely different hitter for some reason.

[The Big Bat Theory]

He went done hill fast fast on the home run front after that Home Run Derby thing season before last.  Maybe that event really does screw up a hitter's swing and it isn't an old wife's tale.

[Blood Brother]

Prince Fielder laughs at that notion

The power decline was pretty alarming but the thing that worried me most was the sudden shift in his approach. Hopefully a new year with a new team(wasn't he unhappy in Boston?) can spell big things for him this year.

[The Big Bat Theory]

Ah but he shifted his approach right after that home run derby as I recall.  Could be wrong but the local announcers noticed it right away too.

He seemed happy enough in Boston and was really close with Ortiz and seemed in shock when he heard he was traded.  Not that I think of the word happy and A-Gon together,  He kind of talks in a monotone like a robot and seemed to spend all his time looking at "tapes" lost in his own little batting analysis world.  Seems he over thinks things more than anything else and so when he suddenly slumps he gets into the "fix" way too much and tampers with this and that endlessly.

[RotoRaysfan]

In looking at A-Gonz, three possibilities exist:

1.  Being in Fenway got into his head - it is death on LH hitters who don't play wall-ball with the Monster.  
2.  He was hurt, and hid the injury
3.  His skills started to decline - which is hard to believe at age 29.


If he's hurting - then I'd be concerned whatever ails him is still there (because no one came forth since).  The one area that could explain a power outage is if the shoulder (initially an issue in the 2010-11 offseason) is still balky.   If it is, though, no one's talking - so it's hard to confirm.    If it's skills decline, well geez, it's a little early.  It's why I do think his approach got completely messed up, and that added fuel to the fire (but hard to explain it all based on bad approach and Fenway's LH-pull sapping environment).

The one thing that can be explained easily - lineup protection is a hotly debated topic - with the overall data suggesting it does not affect overall production - it did show one area that is affected - # BB's.   I think it's safe to say the OBP+ days of SD were just a lineup-related mirage.

If he was going to a LH-friendly park, then I'd be optimistic on a return to his pre-BOS days.  But, going to Chavez Ravine, with SD/SF on the schedule as well (Chase Field & Coors are nice, but home park + other 2 parks are killers), and the concern that his shoulder might be a chronic problem (remember it was the 2011 spectre in the preseason),  I agree that the top-24 or even top-36 talk seems overly optimistic.

[klove42]

RotoRaysfan, on 06 February 2013 - 05:10 PM, said:

In looking at A-Gonz, three possibilities exist:

1.  Being in Fenway got into his head - it is death on LH hitters who don't play wall-ball with the Monster.  
2.  He was hurt, and hid the injury
3.  His skills started to decline - which is hard to believe at age 29.


If he's hurting - then I'd be concerned whatever ails him is still there (because no one came forth since).  The one area that could explain a power outage is if the shoulder (initially an issue in the 2010-11 offseason) is still balky.   If it is, though, no one's talking - so it's hard to confirm. If it's skills decline, well geez, it's a little early.  It's why I do think his approach got completely messed up, and that added fuel to the fire (but hard to explain it all based on bad approach and Fenway's LH-pull sapping environment).

The one thing that can be explained easily - lineup protection is a hotly debated topic - with the overall data suggesting it does not affect overall production - it did show one area that is affected - # BB's.   I think it's safe to say the OBP+ days of SD were just a lineup-related mirage.

If he was going to a LH-friendly park, then I'd be optimistic on a return to his pre-BOS days.  But, going to Chavez Ravine, with SD/SF on the schedule as well (Chase Field & Coors are nice, but home park + other 2 parks are killers), and the concern that his shoulder might be a chronic problem (remember it was the 2011 spectre in the preseason),  I agree that the top-24 or even top-36 talk seems overly optimistic.

To be fair, Petco isnt a hitter friendly park at all, so his pre-Bos days might have been with a worse park for hitters, and he was able to produce. But I do agree that playing in Fenway did get to his head.