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Freddie Freeman 2013 OutlookReady Freddie?...


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#1 FouLLine

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 12:37 PM

Is Freddie ready for a breakout in 2013?

Freeman was quietly productive in 2012.  He went into the fantasy draft considered to be the poor man's Eric Hosmer.  This year their roles look to be reversed.

Freeman did improve upon his 2011 OPS of .795 by 1 point in 2012, despite losing 23 points in batting average.  Outside of batting average he showed good improvement all around.

#2 PRoSPx

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Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

View PostFouLLine, on 22 December 2012 - 12:37 PM, said:

Freeman was quietly productive in 2012.  He went into the fantasy draft considered to be the poor man's Eric Hosmer.  This year their roles look to be reversed.

I think I'm going to do the opposite of what I should have done last year and that's wait on the cheaper one.  I'll pass on Freeman and take Hosmer a few rounds later.

#3 klove42

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Posted 24 December 2012 - 01:20 PM

I want to see where his ADP is, I don't think it will be high like hosmer 4/5 round last year. I'm hoping its like 8-10, but it will probably be higher
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#4 bravesfan4life

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 02:11 PM

After seeing his ADP last year I expect it to be real high this year. He may have a little less upside than some but he is also going to be one of the least risky picks out there barring injury which is a risk for everyone. .290 32 Hrs 105 rbis is my prediction. The thing about first basemen is that theres always 1 or 2 lower ADP guys that will put up similar numbers so I'll wait to see if I like anyone of the lower guys before committing to Freeman.

#5 PRoSPx

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 02:13 PM

.290 32 HR would be great.  It's well within his talent level, but he will likely fall a bit short of that AVG wise.

#6 klove42

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 12:50 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 26 December 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

.290 32 HR would be great.  It's well within his talent level, but he will likely fall a bit short of that AVG wise.

I think he will fall short of the AVG too... Two years ago when he was close to .290 his BABIP was also high at .330. I think an average of .260- 275 is more realistic.
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#7 bravesfan4life

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 12:16 AM

View Postklove42, on 27 December 2012 - 12:50 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 26 December 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

.290 32 HR would be great.  It's well within his talent level, but he will likely fall a bit short of that AVG wise.

I think he will fall short of the AVG too... Two years ago when he was close to .290 his BABIP was also high at .330. I think an average of .260- 275 is more realistic.
I personally think he could be a .300 hitter. He goes the other way and doesn't strike out as much as most power hitters. I really don't expect a .260 again this year and neither do those that watch him every day. He also battled vision problems last year. Safe pick, less power potential than some 1B though.

#8 PRoSPx

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Posted 03 January 2013 - 09:23 AM

View Postbravesfan4life, on 03 January 2013 - 12:16 AM, said:

View Postklove42, on 27 December 2012 - 12:50 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 26 December 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

.290 32 HR would be great.  It's well within his talent level, but he will likely fall a bit short of that AVG wise.

I think he will fall short of the AVG too... Two years ago when he was close to .290 his BABIP was also high at .330. I think an average of .260- 275 is more realistic.
I personally think he could be a .300 hitter. He goes the other way and doesn't strike out as much as most power hitters. I really don't expect a .260 again this year and neither do those that watch him every day. He also battled vision problems last year. Safe pick, less power potential than some 1B though.
I have no doubt Freeman will have multiple. 300 seasons.... I just don't think it'll be this year.  I could see .280 - .290, but I'm expecting a touch over. 280 in 2013.

#9 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS
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#10 jb_power

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.

#11 klove42

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:00 AM

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.

This is just another reason why i try not to pay attention to batting averages and they can be very tough to predict. Eleven hits is honestly nothing that can be one stolen hit away per week by a great defensive play.
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#12 iAugust

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 12:25 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.

Batting average means little to nothing anyway.

Freeman is another guy, like Carlos Santana, who appeared to regress last year to the untrained eye but I think actually made great strides as a young hitter maturing their approach at the plate.

A lot has been said about Freeman's vision problems, but after getting specialized goggles and then getting reconstructive corneia surgery, it appears those issues are behind him and the improvement can be seen in his approach at the plate.

O-Swing%
2011- 36.8
2012- 32.4

Z-Swing%
2011- 76.4
2012- 78.5

Contact%
2011- 77.4
2012- 77.6

Swinging at less bad pitches, more good pitches while maintaining a similar contact rate is a very good thing for a 22-year old hitter who has battling issues midseason. These improvements in plate discipline led to:

BB%
2011- 8.3
2012- 10.3

K%
2011- 22.4
2012- 20.8

ISO
2011- .166
2012- .196

His walk rate increased, his k rate dropped and he gained more power. Pretty much the 3 most important things to look for in a hitter.

While his .282 AVG in 2011 appears to be the result of a high BABIP (.339), his minor league numbers suggest that last years BABIP (.295, league average) actually might appear to be the outlier. He was able to post BABIPs of .352 in 540 single-A PA's, .338 in 297 AA PA's and .351 in 519 AAA PA's. This suggests he is capable of sustaining a higher-than-average BABIP due to a solid LD%.

With his approach improving, his power increasing, his BABIP likely to regress forward towards his career norms and the fact that he is only 22 and still filling in to his 6'5 frame, I love Freeman has a breakout candidate this year. I view him as a top-10 first basemen and will target him on draft day.

My projection: .280, 26 HR, 85 R, 90 RBI, with a ceiling closer to .290/30/90/100 as soon as this year

Edited by iAugust, 17 February 2013 - 12:26 PM.


#13 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:40 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.
IF he hit 11 more it would have changed his batting average, but he didn't. Batting average doesn't matter in the leagues where i play(h2h points) but for people that play with BA's in say Roto or Cats, it does. I'm not saying he had a bad season whatsoever. He increased his HR by 2 and RBI by 18 in 31 less AB's. He could be a top 5 1B for the 2013 season.
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#14 lightning1233

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:39 PM

I think you can bank on an increase in runs and rbi with the addition of Upton. I'm thinking 25 HRs with a .285 ave.  I love him if he falls a bit in the draft.

#15 battle2heaven

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:03 PM

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 04:40 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.
IF he hit 11 more it would have changed his batting average, but he didn't. Batting average doesn't matter in the leagues where i play(h2h points) but for people that play with BA's in say Roto or Cats, it does. I'm not saying he had a bad season whatsoever. He increased his HR by 2 and RBI by 18 in 31 less AB's. He could be a top 5 1B for the 2013 season.

I think what he's trying to say is that BA is a highly fluctuable stat. It's hard to gauge and accurately predict batting average from year to year. Freeman's underlying metrics have improved; which bodes extremely well for a favorable 2013 forecast for his rate stats. Add the fact that the all around lineup is improved, his counting stats should blossom as well.

Edited by battle2heaven, 17 February 2013 - 06:04 PM.

12 team h2h 6x6 (OPS + QS)

C:  Mike Napoli
1b: Chris Davis
2b: Aaron Hill
ss: Jimmy Rollins
3b: Ryan Zimmermann
of: Mike Stanton
of: Jose Bautista
of: Yoenis Cespedes
UTL: Starling Marte
UTL: Nate McClouth
bench: Gerardo Parra, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson

SP: Max Scherzer SP: Jeff Samardzjia
SP: Yovani Gallardo SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Francisco Liriano   SP: John Lackey
SP: Corey Kluber   SP: Kyle Kendrick
SP: Jose Quintana (stream spot) SP: Joe Saunders (stream spot)
RP: Koji Uehara

#16 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:07 PM

View Postbattle2heaven, on 17 February 2013 - 06:03 PM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 04:40 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.
IF he hit 11 more it would have changed his batting average, but he didn't. Batting average doesn't matter in the leagues where i play(h2h points) but for people that play with BA's in say Roto or Cats, it does. I'm not saying he had a bad season whatsoever. He increased his HR by 2 and RBI by 18 in 31 less AB's. He could be a top 5 1B for the 2013 season.

I think what he's trying to say is that BA is a highly fluctuable stat. It's hard to gauge and accurately predict batting average from year to year. Freeman's underlying metrics have improved; which bodes extremely well for a favorable 2013 forecast for his rate states. Add the fact that the all around lineup is improved, his counting stats should blossom as well.
I understand that. I have Freeman on all of my teams and hope he improves his stats. What I was saying is that even with a little BA drop(which can fluctuate), he still had a number improvement and should improve again this season.
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#17 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:08 PM

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.
And if he didn't have the vision and hand issues he probably would have hit around .300 last season.
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#18 Halo Fan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:36 PM

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 06:08 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 17 February 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 01:18 AM, said:

.280 30+ HR this season i think. Had a significant average drop (from .282;2011 to .259;2012) but his RBI's went up. The batting average is due to the finger issue and the vision problems he was having where he needed goggles or whatnot. Other than that he probably would have hit around .275=.280 with 100 rbi's.
Projection .280 30+HR, 100+rbi and a .800+ OPS

I don't consider a drop of .023 in BAvg to be significant.  Freeman had 540 official ABs last year.  If he would have had 11 more hits he would have hit .280.

11 hits over the course of a 6 month season is a tad under 2 extra hits a month.
And if he didn't have the vision and hand issues he probably would have hit around .300 last season.

What is it with Braves hitters and their vision? McCann struggled with vision issues for a few years, too.
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#19 Bravesfan155

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:02 AM

View PostHalo Fan, on 17 February 2013 - 10:36 PM, said:

What is it with Braves hitters and their vision? McCann struggled with vision issues for a few years, too.

If i remember correctly, it was a scratched cornia that took some time to heal. McCann's issue was alot more serious, required lasik surgery. The hand was also a freak accident, caught a ball on his hand sliding into second when Reyes was trying to turn two. I wouldn't expect either of those things to carry over into 2013.

I can't see Freeman hitting .300. He swings at the first pitch somewhere around 50% of the time. Just don't see him having the patience to be a .300 hitter. I think he'll have a good season though. I think he'll reach 100 RBI's with all the guys ahead of him.
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#20 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:18 AM

View PostBravesfan155, on 18 February 2013 - 02:02 AM, said:

View PostHalo Fan, on 17 February 2013 - 10:36 PM, said:

What is it with Braves hitters and their vision? McCann struggled with vision issues for a few years, too.

If i remember correctly, it was a scratched cornia that took some time to heal. McCann's issue was alot more serious, required lasik surgery. The hand was also a freak accident, caught a ball on his hand sliding into second when Reyes was trying to turn two. I wouldn't expect either of those things to carry over into 2013.

I can't see Freeman hitting .300. He swings at the first pitch somewhere around 50% of the time. Just don't see him having the patience to be a .300 hitter. I think he'll have a good season though. I think he'll reach 100 RBI's with all the guys ahead of him.

Freeman is a .301 career minor league hitter in his young and quick minor league career.  He also hit .319 his last season in the minors at AAA at the age of 20!

So .300 isn't out of the question, but I do think he'll fall short of .300 this year but I expect a huge boost in average this year for him.




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