Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

Photo
- - - - -

Jesus Montero 2013 Outlook


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
222 replies to this topic

#1 FouLLine

FouLLine

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,944 posts

Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:02 PM

After just a "servicable" rookie year Montero will probably become some what of an after thought in fantasy drafts. But keep in mind he was a super prospect 2 years ago.

Getting traded to SEA ruined Jesus Montero for me. When he was crushing away in The Yankees farm system he was one of my favorite prospects. But hey going from the best hitters park to the worst hitters park will do that.

Montero's ceiling is very high and I'm sure he'll be a post 16th rounder.

#2 PRoSPx

PRoSPx

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 758 posts

Posted 22 December 2012 - 01:07 PM

Terrible home park didn't really do much to interest me last year. He would have to be way later than the 16th round for me to give him a look.

#3 LyondellBasell

LyondellBasell

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,727 posts

Posted 22 December 2012 - 07:36 PM

i remember a couple hot weeks last season where i ended up adding him in a shallow 10 teamer. he definitely has it in him to rake. i'll be curious to see how his supporting cast looks in the spring. kendrys will help. but honestly, i can't even name a starting nine for them ... kyle seager ... mike carp ... ackley ... brendan ryan... -----ah forget it.

14 Team PPR. One Keeper. All TDs worth six.
 
QB/ Wilson
RB/ Jamaal
WR/ Edelman
FX/ Wright
FX/ Bradshaw
FX/ McKinnon
TE/ Kelce
DST/ Titans
K/ Parkey
Bn/ Hill, Hunter, Shorts, P Thomas, LaFell
 
Championships: 4 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball


#4 Van Buren Boys

Van Buren Boys

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,504 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:10 PM

What kind of numbers are people predicting for 2013? Is .280-18-85 too ambitious?
To be the man, you've got to beat the man!

#5 ballfan4141

ballfan4141

    On the Ballot

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,710 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 08:16 PM

rotoworld got him for 30 HRs this year. I am done even giving any attention to the "experts" have not taken them serious in years. talk you all you guys and use rotoworld for there updates and info.

bill james is an idiot also.

Edited by ballfan4141, 30 January 2013 - 08:17 PM.


#6 Dissection

Dissection

    Triple-A

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 78 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 09:46 PM

30 HR?Yeah right.He has good power but that's way too much.

#7 whiskeyriver

whiskeyriver

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,248 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 10:34 PM

.280/18/65R/75 RBI is what I am thinking.
Little green ghouls, buddy!

#8 jsp2014

jsp2014

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,636 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 10:40 PM

.280/18/65R/75 RBI is what I am thinking.


definitely think this is the most reasonable projection ITT.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#9 mjk356

mjk356

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,558 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 11:00 PM

Catcher is really deep this season. I'm just not high on him this year given the lineup he's in and the ballpark, even though the fences are being moved in. He really struggled last season, as evidenced by his .298 OBP. I expect a modest bump in numbers, but there are so many other options at catcher I would rather take a chance on.

I just wonder how longer this guy will even receive occasional starts behind the plate. From what I saw last season, Montero is about as bad as it gets defensively. I have to think this is Montero's last year of getting PT at catcher, with Zunino on his way.

Edited by mjk356, 30 January 2013 - 11:03 PM.


#10 Travdaddy10

Travdaddy10

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,981 posts

Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:14 PM

ESPN ranked him 11th for catchers. Before McCann, Napoli, Ruiz, or Pierzynski. I'd rather have all of those guys before him. Or I'd rather take Miguel Montero a round earlier.

#11 Cmilne23

Cmilne23

    All-Time Great

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,020 posts

Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:17 PM

Safeco is moving the fences in and they do get more games @Houston this year a great hitters park for right handed hitters with that short porch. Plus when he doesn't catch he will probably DH. He will get a lot of at bats. Seattle had zero players surrounding him last year. This year they at least got Morse and Morales, and they are still rumored to be after Michael Bourn. Mariners lineup will probably be bottom 10 again but it won't be league worst like it has been the last 3 years, or for me as a Mariner fan, seemingly an eternity. I think Jesus cracks around 20 HR's at least. He will be good value in non OBP leagues. I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.

#12 FouLLine

FouLLine

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,944 posts

Posted 01 February 2013 - 01:30 AM

I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.


29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.

#13 cymbaline

cymbaline

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,254 posts

Posted 01 February 2013 - 01:52 AM


I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.


29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.


I know you like to be positive but 29 free passes is horrible relative to his position. He was 17th out of 18 catchers with 400 PA on BB% and last among BA qualifiers among C's. 4 of his walks were intentional and lots of others were attempts to pitch around him. It's possible he'll improve but OBP leaguers should be wary. He'd need to make a quantum leap in BB% to really make an impact.

In 5x5 he's quite interesting if he gets regular PT at DH.

#14 FouLLine

FouLLine

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,944 posts

Posted 01 February 2013 - 02:14 AM



I would not want him in an OBP league though. He can't draw a walk to save his life.


29 walks out of a 22 year old isn't too bad. Expect that number to get better as he matures, he had an 8.5% walk rate in the minors and was constantly playing above his age group. As a catcher his batting eye will develop rapidly throughout his career.


I know you like to be positive but 29 free passes is horrible relative to his position. He was 17th out of 18 catchers with 400 PA on BB% and last among BA qualifiers among C's. 4 of his walks were intentional and lots of others were attempts to pitch around him. It's possible he'll improve but OBP leaguers should be wary. He'd need to make a quantum leap in BB% to really make an impact.

In 5x5 he's quite interesting if he gets regular PT at DH.


Look at a couple of catchers who like Montero were at one time considered to be top prospects.

Buster Posey first full season 6.8%, sophomore 9.7%, last year 11.3%. He showed very solid improvement.

Matt Wieters rookie season 7.3%, sophomore 9.4%, last year 10.1%, another young catcher showing steady improvement.

So if he follows anything like these two guys he should see a 2 - 3% increase in his walk rate, which would equate to roughly 14 extra walks over 575 plate apperences.

#15 ballfan4141

ballfan4141

    On the Ballot

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,710 posts

Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:16 AM

jesus monteros team stinks.

#16 mjb03003

mjb03003

    Hall of Famer

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,686 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:06 AM

The 30 HR projection from RW threw me for a loop, but after doing additional research, I think there's a very good chance that Montero is a top 5 catcher this season even if he doesn't come close to that projection. Given how deep catcher is this year, and how mediocre Montero's numbers were last year, there's a good chance you can get him in the late rounds after 8-10 other catchers are already taken, which leaves plenty of room for profit.

10 team 2-QB, PPR, IDP, Auction dynasty
QB1 - Peyton Manning, QB2 - Colin Kaepernick
WR1 - Steve Smith Sr., WR2 - Michael Crabtree
RB1 - LeSean McCoy, RB2 - Matt Forte
TE - Ladarius Green
W/R - Giovani Bernard
W/T - Keenan Allen
Bench - Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Mike Evans, Cordarrelle Patterson, Davante Adams, Andre Holmes, Ronnie Hillman

 

DB1 - Harrison Smith, DB2 - Kenny Vaccaro, DB3 - Tyrann Mathieu
DL1 - Cameron Wake, DB2 - Carlos Dunlap, DL3 - Jadaveon Clowney
LB1 - Lavonte David, LB2 - Paul Posluszny, LB3 - Paul Worrilow
D Flex - K.J. Wright
Bench - Kiko Alonso


#17 JFS171

JFS171

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,998 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM

Very interesting article on Montero - one I find pretty encouraging as an owner in a deep keeper league.

http://www.fangraphs...-jesus-montero/

Essentially the take-away is this. With all of Seattle's trades, they've got to find a way to slot Montero, Smoak, Morse, Morales, Ibanez, and others into their lineup.

So DH comes down to Montero, Morse, Morales. The luster may have completely fallen off of Smoak, but I doubt he's completely kicked to the curb. It's possible Morse plays LF, Morales DH, and Smoak at 1B, but the reality is that Montero and Ronny Paulino are the only catchers on the roster right now. Zunio is coming, but I highly doubt he's ready before mid-late summer, and I personaly don't think Paulino is stealing ABs from Montero more than once or twice a week.

But what's the point? The point is that many players struggle to adjust to being a DH. In fact, DH'ing generally leads to decreased offensive performance: http://www.insidethe...ts/skill_to_dh/

If we look at Montero as a C (and remove the DH ABs), his line is much, much better - especially for a 22 year old. Had Montero hit .310/.343/.498, how much differently would we view him? And it's not a function of starting at C against LHP. In fact, see below for the splits of splits:

as Catcher
33 starts vs. RHP: 0.282/0.317/0.504
21 starts vs. LHP: 0.346/0.379/0.444

as DH
44 starts vs. RHP 0.200/0.230/0.242
33 starts vs. LHP 0.265/0.315/0.402

The Ms seem intent on having him catch, which his owners should be celebrating. And the market is probably undervaluing this guy quite a bit in that light.

#18 astarlist

astarlist

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,225 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:02 AM

His line as a C is salivating.
12 team dynasty h2h points league
C C. Santana
1b Trumbo
2b Kipnis, Prado
ss Bogaerts
3b Zimmerman
MI Rutledge
CI Sandoval
OF Choo, Gardner, Fowler, M. Brantley
Util Belt,
BN G. Polanco, Buxton

P Minor, Moore, Salazar, Kennedy, Archer, Yordano, Z. Wheeler, Erasmo Ramirez, T. Walker, Duffy, Bundy, Heaney

#19 PRoSPx

PRoSPx

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 758 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:25 PM

Did I hear hr was possibly involved with the anti-aging PED clinic?...

#20 JFS171

JFS171

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,998 posts

Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:01 PM

Did I hear hr was possibly involved with the anti-aging PED clinic?...


FWIW, Montero denies any involvement. He has the same agents as Cruz, Melky, and Gio, however...

http://www.oregonliv...es_surpris.html