329 replies to this topic

[baltimore_boy]

Halladay took a massive step backwards last year. Is a decline coming on faster than usual or can he bounce back?

[Armalite]

He's getting older, bit of an injury risk at this point in his career. But I do see him rebounding, he's probably one of the smartest, hardest working pitchers who've ever played the game. He's no longer a first rounder, but he'd be a good value pick if he slid past the 3rd or 4th round. I'm hoping his injury caused slide in his last couple of games last year makes people shy away from him.

[BigPapi44]

Value, yes, but not the same guy as 3-5 years ago.  I'd target him as a good (not great) number 3 fantasy SP in a 10 team league with 5 starters.

[LyondellBasell]

I won't be picking him unless its ridiculously late ... i just have no idea how to value him ... that shoulder problem he had plus the erratic velocity is enough to scare me away.

[Suikoden]

should get traded back to the Jays come playoff time

[kslackey]

 LyondellBasell, on 22 December 2012 - 09:49 PM, said:

I won't be picking him unless its ridiculously late ... i just have no idea how to value him ... that shoulder problem he had plus the erratic velocity is enough to scare me away.

He'll be drafted before then. I don't plan on drafting him simply because he will be taken before I'm willing to grab him.

[Dissection]

Too many question marks,at least for now.As some previously said,he is a hard working guy so who knows.I hope he stays healthy cause it's a joy to watch him.I would like to draft him but he will be taken too early.

[parrothead]

 baltimore_boy, on 22 December 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Halladay took a massive step backwards last year. Is a decline coming on faster than usual or can he bounce back?

On my sp spread sheet I have a tier named the "bounceback bunch" guys like Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Lester, Haren, Romero, etc.  Depending on some homers in your particular league, I think many of these guys can come at a value if you like them for a bounceback.  Halladay was money for so long then last year it just collapsed, my hunch is he will bounce back, may not be elite top 5 fantasy guy as he has been for several years, but I wouldnt put top 20-25 off the table.

[iAugust]

 parrothead, on 22 December 2012 - 11:41 PM, said:

 baltimore_boy, on 22 December 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Halladay took a massive step backwards last year. Is a decline coming on faster than usual or can he bounce back?

On my sp spread sheet I have a tier named the "bounceback bunch" guys like Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Lester, Haren, Romero, etc.  Depending on some homers in your particular league, I think many of these guys can come at a value if you like them for a bounceback.  Halladay was money for so long then last year it just collapsed, my hunch is he will bounce back, may not be elite top 5 fantasy guy as he has been for several years, but I wouldnt put top 20-25 off the table.

What is Wainwright doing in that bunch? He already bounced back with a fantastic season last year

[parrothead]

 iAugust, on 23 December 2012 - 02:05 PM, said:

 parrothead, on 22 December 2012 - 11:41 PM, said:

 baltimore_boy, on 22 December 2012 - 04:38 PM, said:

Halladay took a massive step backwards last year. Is a decline coming on faster than usual or can he bounce back?

On my sp spread sheet I have a tier named the "bounceback bunch" guys like Halladay, Lincecum, Wainwright, Lester, Haren, Romero, etc.  Depending on some homers in your particular league, I think many of these guys can come at a value if you like them for a bounceback.  Halladay was money for so long then last year it just collapsed, my hunch is he will bounce back, may not be elite top 5 fantasy guy as he has been for several years, but I wouldnt put top 20-25 off the table.

What is Wainwright doing in that bunch? He already bounced back with a fantastic season last year

Because he went from top 5 maybe top 10 guy after back to back 200K sub 3ERA seasons to an injury, then last year was 185K and ERA almost 4.  He will need a bounceback to be elite again, just like Lincecum, Halladay, etc.

[iAugust]

His ERA is the only thing that was missing and that's pretty misleading, all his peripherals pretty much returned to 09/10/career levels for Waino.

2009 - 3.11 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 21.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9
2010 - 2.86 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 23.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, .59 HR/9
2012 -3.10 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 22.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .68 HR/9
Career-3.31 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9

Bad luck that resulted in a career-high .315 BABIP and -- as someone who owned Waino and watched a lot of his games last year -- a ton of bad defense on his starts are what inflated his ERA. Not to mention the fact that he had an awful first half and still put up these numbers. His ERA was 3.28 after the All-Star Break.

Waino has nothing else to prove to me, e his back to being same old elite Waino and will likely be undervalued. I will be targeting him in all my drafts

Edited by iAugust, 23 December 2012 - 08:14 PM.

[parrothead]

 iAugust, on 23 December 2012 - 08:13 PM, said:

His ERA is the only thing that was missing and that's pretty misleading, all his peripherals pretty much returned to 09/10/career levels for Waino.

2009 - 3.11 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 21.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9
2010 - 2.86 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 23.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, .59 HR/9
2012 -3.10 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 22.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .68 HR/9
Career-3.31 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9

Bad luck that resulted in a career-high .315 BABIP and -- as someone who owned Waino and watched a lot of his games last year -- a ton of bad defense on his starts are what inflated his ERA. Not to mention the fact that he had an awful first half and still put up these numbers. His ERA was 3.28 after the All-Star Break.

Waino has nothing else to prove to me, e his back to being same old elite Waino and will likely be undervalued. I will be targeting him in all my drafts

Im just saying that he wasnt where he was in the two years leading up to the injury where he would of been sure fire top 10 pitcher taken and just curious how bad defense hurt the ERA?

[jsp2014]

would anyone actually be the slightest bit surprised if he finishes the year as a top 3 SP?

[Nick Mitchell]

I would not, to the poster above. I am targeting Halladay in my draft for anywhere from $15-$25, because with the budget I suspect the league to have, I think that should be an appropriate price range and what I would be willing to pay- give or take a little perhaps. We'll see how it is going into spring training and make sure he's not injured or nothing happens over the off-season in freak fashion.

I think he will go way under radars. For example, in my league, we field 25 man rosters with 2 DL spots. 1400IP limit for pitchers on the season, and you can only start position players 162 games at each spot (including 162 per at each OF position, although I don't recall if we used LF, CF, and RF- I think OF was universal so anyone qualified for all 3 spots as long as they qualified for one OF position, something we're switching heading into next year). Point of this is, when you use 5 man rosters (non-keeper, mind you), it makes a lot of sense to actually carry 11-12 pitchers, with 13 tops unless you're loaded on CL guys to net you SV points (or if your league has a HOLD stat, set-up men as well I guess).
I worked with mostly the same 4-man rotation all year and they were all pieces I drafted, for the most part: Weaver & Hamels (for $30 a piece totaling $60)  anchoring the staff, Sale as a huge bargain (8$), and then one FA add in Kyle Lohse (0$ to add, someone dropped him post-draft so I added him after he cleared waivers,  and a stream turned into a permanent fixture/spot start all year for me! ). The rest of the season I threw out a mix of waiver fodder for the 5th spot, and used a lot of streamers I won't go into naming. Other than Samardzija who I dealt, there weren't a ton of great guys in the 5th spot for my team really. But the point of this..

Using the strategy or working off of the format of a league that employs 25-man rosters or something close to it and has 12-14 teams (preferably 14- mine was 14...), Roy Halladay easily fits the mold of a 3rd SP for your fantasy squad, and I would assume most teams need at least 4 SP to use consistently unless they want to burn through roster moves (my league was capped at 80 moves allowed so you had to watch that sort of thing, but I used all 79 moves strategically- some not as much as others- but my 80th move was just a joke on the final day as I had clinched 1st place before the season even ended). Some teams do employ the strategy of loading up on closers for SV points, or even set-up men assuming there's a HOLD stat.... but I think having 4 starters- 3 that are really good (or 2 that are great and 1 very solid ala Roy Halladay) is the way to go.

Roy... I would put down $20 for him in a league for 25-man rosters, 14 teams. I don't know. I would try to bid cheaper, but i think I'd go that high. That is assuming he makes it into next year and is fully healthy, and all of that. I see a nice year coming from him. No reason to believe he is just done out of the blue unless someone has some good article that may detail a possible decline in his velocity/movement/anything that has changed....

For snake drafts, as a SP, I assume they go lower (I play auction always and never have been in a snake, at least not in the past 3 or 4 years anyway, save for some NBA leagues) and I would guess Halladay is a 6th-8th round guy, with all of the other SP options out there. Maybe 4th-6th. I don't know.

What does anyone else think?

[SoundMaster]

 parrothead, on 23 December 2012 - 08:23 PM, said:

 iAugust, on 23 December 2012 - 08:13 PM, said:

His ERA is the only thing that was missing and that's pretty misleading, all his peripherals pretty much returned to 09/10/career levels for Waino.

2009 - 3.11 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 21.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9
2010 - 2.86 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 23.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, .59 HR/9
2012 -3.10 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 22.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .68 HR/9
Career-3.31 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9

Bad luck that resulted in a career-high .315 BABIP and -- as someone who owned Waino and watched a lot of his games last year -- a ton of bad defense on his starts are what inflated his ERA. Not to mention the fact that he had an awful first half and still put up these numbers. His ERA was 3.28 after the All-Star Break.

Waino has nothing else to prove to me, e his back to being same old elite Waino and will likely be undervalued. I will be targeting him in all my drafts

Im just saying that he wasnt where he was in the two years leading up to the injury where he would of been sure fire top 10 pitcher taken and just curious how bad defense hurt the ERA?

Look at the numbers.....Waino was marginally better in '12 than on '10.    and that's remarkable being that he was coming back from a year off.    He's definitely someome to target next season, and should be at a bargain based on the deceptive ERA.

[ballfan4141]

knew he would take a step back last year. dont pay for the name.

[Lebowski87]

He's certainly the kind of guy worth taking a gamble on. I'd rather have Hamels or Lee, but Halladay should be close to his normal self again. May not be utterly dominant like the past few seasons but still very good.

[brockpapersizer]

 Nick Mitchell, on 23 December 2012 - 11:40 PM, said:

I would not, to the poster above. I am targeting Halladay in my draft for anywhere from $15-$25, because with the budget I suspect the league to have, I think that should be an appropriate price range and what I would be willing to pay- give or take a little perhaps. We'll see how it is going into spring training and make sure he's not injured or nothing happens over the off-season in freak fashion.

I think he will go way under radars. For example, in my league, we field 25 man rosters with 2 DL spots. 1400IP limit for pitchers on the season, and you can only start position players 162 games at each spot (including 162 per at each OF position, although I don't recall if we used LF, CF, and RF- I think OF was universal so anyone qualified for all 3 spots as long as they qualified for one OF position, something we're switching heading into next year). Point of this is, when you use 5 man rosters (non-keeper, mind you), it makes a lot of sense to actually carry 11-12 pitchers, with 13 tops unless you're loaded on CL guys to net you SV points (or if your league has a HOLD stat, set-up men as well I guess).
I worked with mostly the same 4-man rotation all year and they were all pieces I drafted, for the most part: Weaver & Hamels (for $30 a piece totaling $60)  anchoring the staff, Sale as a huge bargain (8$), and then one FA add in Kyle Lohse (0$ to add, someone dropped him post-draft so I added him after he cleared waivers,  and a stream turned into a permanent fixture/spot start all year for me! ). The rest of the season I threw out a mix of waiver fodder for the 5th spot, and used a lot of streamers I won't go into naming. Other than Samardzija who I dealt, there weren't a ton of great guys in the 5th spot for my team really. But the point of this..

Using the strategy or working off of the format of a league that employs 25-man rosters or something close to it and has 12-14 teams (preferably 14- mine was 14...), Roy Halladay easily fits the mold of a 3rd SP for your fantasy squad, and I would assume most teams need at least 4 SP to use consistently unless they want to burn through roster moves (my league was capped at 80 moves allowed so you had to watch that sort of thing, but I used all 79 moves strategically- some not as much as others- but my 80th move was just a joke on the final day as I had clinched 1st place before the season even ended). Some teams do employ the strategy of loading up on closers for SV points, or even set-up men assuming there's a HOLD stat.... but I think having 4 starters- 3 that are really good (or 2 that are great and 1 very solid ala Roy Halladay) is the way to go.

Roy... I would put down $20 for him in a league for 25-man rosters, 14 teams. I don't know. I would try to bid cheaper, but i think I'd go that high. That is assuming he makes it into next year and is fully healthy, and all of that. I see a nice year coming from him. No reason to believe he is just done out of the blue unless someone has some good article that may detail a possible decline in his velocity/movement/anything that has changed....

For snake drafts, as a SP, I assume they go lower (I play auction always and never have been in a snake, at least not in the past 3 or 4 years anyway, save for some NBA leagues) and I would guess Halladay is a 6th-8th round guy, with all of the other SP options out there. Maybe 4th-6th. I don't know.

What does anyone else think?

Would your team rock with Halladay as your third starter? Yes.  Good luck getting that. You're probably only going to be able to get him as your SP 3 if you take 2 pitchers pretty early, so its unlikely.  I think he has to go around 6-7 and I cant see someone taking a pitcher at that spot after having already taken 2.  He's probably going to be ranked in the teens ADP wise.  Just my opinion, if he's ranked much lower he'll be a huge bargain.

Not that I agree with these rankings but just using what I first saw.

http://sports.espn.g...=2013_ranks_250

EDIT: 17th ranked SP and would technically be a 5th rounder here in a 12 team league and a 6th in a 10 team league. No way he's realistic SP3

Reminds me a lot of people evaluating Matt Moore last year and talking about how he had SP1 upside and you could get him as an SP3 by the time the season started he was going as a pretty high SP2 and SP1 in larger leagues.  

I personally believe Halladay is a great SP2 to have.  It is realistic to get him in round 7 as your SP2 if youre in a draft with people slow on drafting pitchers. Pair him up with an ace and you have the upside to have the best ace pair.

Edited by brockpapersizer, 05 January 2013 - 01:53 AM.

[ChrisFarley]

36 years old, coming off a season of back/shoulder issues, declining velo.  I dunno... He might pitch better, but expecting a huge rebound is a lot to ask in my opinion.  He will get drafted on name value, so I don't he will be a steal in any draft.  I just don't know if he will perform according to the ADP.

[Suikoden]

He's on my radar...it's freakin Doc.