312 replies to this topic

[AnonymousRob]

If he can stay healthy, I could easily see 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases out of this guy. With a 280ish average and 80 runs/90 rbi's.

His early ADP screams extreme value (21st OF). I'm grabbing him in every league at those prices.

[SoundMaster]

I had my doubts throughout most of '12, but the final number portray a quality ML bat.    I also plan to target him assuming he flies under the radar as I expect (hope?).

I'd expect:
.270
22-25 jacks
80-90 rbi
75-85 runs
15-20 SB

[klove42]

AnonymousRob, on 23 December 2012 - 03:53 PM, said:

If he can stay healthy, I could easily see 30 home runs and 20 stolen bases out of this guy. With a 280ish average and 80 runs/90 rbi's.

His early ADP screams extreme value (21st OF). I'm grabbing him in every league at those prices.

Agree 100%. If stays at that adp I will be grabbing him every where

[FouLLine]

SoundMaster, on 23 December 2012 - 06:20 PM, said:

I had my doubts throughout most of '12, but the final number portray a quality ML bat. I also plan to target him assuming he flies under the radar as I expect (hope?).

I'd expect:
.270
22-25 jacks
80-90 rbi
75-85 runs
15-20 SB

He has potential to hit 30 HRs.

[FISH ON]

His home away splits for HR's are almost equal, add in Houston's little league ball park and pitching staff this year, and we might see a minor spike in hrs on the road. The only weakness in his game is his away BA, but in daily leagues that's easily manageable. Legitimate 5 cat contributor when healthy. Looking forward to watching him this year as he's acclimated himself nicely to MLB pitching.
30-35hrs is attainable, if healthy for 150-162 games.

[Dodger Blue 88]

Since he seemed banged up often last year I think his value is down to the avg fantasy fan. People on this forum can see how good he could be. I say 25 hr and 20 sb with a good avg.

[bigbluecrew56]

Big fan of Cespedes as my #2 or #3 OF. The Cuban Bo Jackson  will be a solid 5 Cat contributor. 280 32 80 90 20 if he can get atleast 150 games in. In 12 team league drafts I see him being a good value at about the 7-8th round.

[klove42]

bigbluecrew56, on 02 January 2013 - 02:03 PM, said:

Big fan of Cespedes as my #2 or #3 OF. The Cuban Bo Jackson  will be a solid 5 Cat contributor. 280 32 80 90 20 if he can get atleast 150 games in. In 12 team league drafts I see him being a good value at about the 7-8th round.

I haven't seen any early adp yet but I don't think he will make it that far. I could see his adp being in h fourth or fifth round when drafts approach

[AnonymousRob]

klove42, on 02 January 2013 - 08:51 PM, said:

bigbluecrew56, on 02 January 2013 - 02:03 PM, said:

Big fan of Cespedes as my #2 or #3 OF. The Cuban Bo Jackson  will be a solid 5 Cat contributor. 280 32 80 90 20 if he can get atleast 150 games in. In 12 team league drafts I see him being a good value at about the 7-8th round.

I haven't seen any early adp yet but I don't think he will make it that far. I could see his adp being in h fourth or fifth round when drafts approach

http://www.fftoolbox...tion.cfm?pos=OF Early mock results have him going anywhere from 20th outfielder down to 30 something. I have little doubt his value will rise as we get closer to the season, but I can't see him suddenly rocketing up to a top 10 outfielder.

Interesting data from fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs...-and-fly-balls/

[klove42]

AnonymousRob, on 02 January 2013 - 09:52 PM, said:

klove42, on 02 January 2013 - 08:51 PM, said:

bigbluecrew56, on 02 January 2013 - 02:03 PM, said:

Big fan of Cespedes as my #2 or #3 OF. The Cuban Bo Jackson  will be a solid 5 Cat contributor. 280 32 80 90 20 if he can get atleast 150 games in. In 12 team league drafts I see him being a good value at about the 7-8th round.

I haven't seen any early adp yet but I don't think he will make it that far. I could see his adp being in h fourth or fifth round when drafts approach

http://www.fftoolbox...tion.cfm?pos=OF Early mock results have him going anywhere from 20th outfielder down to 30 something. I have little doubt his value will rise as we get closer to the season, but I can't see him suddenly rocketing up to a top 10 outfielder.

Interesting data from fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs...-and-fly-balls/

Wow that's great value for him there at an adp of 120. If he stays there I will be taking him in every single one of my leagues.

[Travis Burten]

I'm really confused as to why this guy is not a top 40 pick? .311-.376-.533 in the second half as he started to settle into the league (strikeouts went down as the season progressed, average went up, SwingStrk% went down as well). 14 HRS and 10 SB with 51 runs scored and 46 RBI. Assuming he doesn't grow (which, by his trends last year, seem unlikely), he numbers will probably be around 25ish HR, 90 RBI, 85 runs scored, 15-20 SBs with a .285-.290 or so average.

His upside? I honestly think its first round material.....300-30-100-100-20

Edited by Travis Burten, 23 January 2013 - 08:31 AM.

[klove42]

Travis Burten, on 23 January 2013 - 08:29 AM, said:

I'm really confused as to why this guy is not a top 40 pick? .311-.376-.533 in the second half as he started to settle into the league (strikeouts went down as the season progressed, average went up, SwingStrk% went down as well). 14 HRS and 10 SB with 51 runs scored and 46 RBI. Assuming he doesn't grow (which, by his trends last year, seem unlikely), he numbers will probably be around 25ish HR, 90 RBI, 85 runs scored, 15-20 SBs with a .285-.290 or so average.

His upside? I honestly think its first round material.....300-30-100-100-20

Exactly why he is on my draft list in almost every league. I'm just hoping his ADP doesn't rise too much when drafts approach. The reasons you said are why he is so attractive this year.

[bigbluecrew56]

Current ADP if you want him safely is about 4-5 in yahoo drafts. If he has a big spring I have no reservations taking him around there. As someone mentioned earlier he has the potential to put up 1st round numbers as with everyone health permitting.

[Rene]

I had him for cheap on a couple of teams last year.  I loved the comment some "expert" made around this time last year, "Since when do we care about Cuban league stats?"  That and other comments like it helped bring down his value a lot. The guy is a stud.

[OrangeCrush]

Do you guys like his upside more then say a guy like Hamilton at this point?

[ballfan4141]

well everyone has seen the best hamilton will do. maybe we have not with cespedes.

[wildo7]

I expect him to strike out more this year like he did in Cuba now that pitchers have a book on him

he's also gonna be overvauled as this thread shows; too easy to get lost in his mythical upside

Edited by wildo7, 18 February 2013 - 03:47 PM.

[LyondellBasell]

i see him getting a lot of love in mocks, up around round 3

[And Won]

Yeah I'm on board here, as a premier OF2. He can easily produce OF1 type numbers as a focal point of his OAKs offense.

I will be paying close attention to his SOs because that will be a key for him as he improves.  He had his best marks in the final leg of the year at 15% strikeout rate in Sept/Oct.

The power is what is really intriguing, I like him for 25+ HR but he could end up flirting with 30, if he gets some good luck.

Edited by And Won, 18 February 2013 - 04:19 PM.

[2Balls]

wildo7, on 18 February 2013 - 03:46 PM, said:

I expect him to strike out more this year like he did in Cuba now that pitchers have a book on him

he's also gonna be overvauled as this thread shows; too easy to get lost in his mythical upside

His K-rate improved as the season went on. Pretty sure pitchers had a scouting report by the end of the season.
Also don't forget he only played 129 games last year. Could see the average dipping, but think 30/20 is a real possibility.